Solar Energy implementation in the Middle East: Challenges and Opportunities Matteo Chiesa Laboratory for Energy and Nano Science Masdar Institute

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1 Solar Energy implementation in the Middle East: Challenges and Opportunities Matteo Chiesa Laboratory for Energy and Nano Science Masdar Institute The Saudi case: Stressed Energy Supply Environmental concerns Moving towards a knowledge economy Selected solar technology

2 Solar energy: A solu<on to Saudi Arabia s energy- and environment- related concerns. Adapted from the KICP Annual Strategic Study 2009

3 Solar energy: A solution to Saudi Arabia s economic concerns. Adapted from the KICP Annual Strategic Study 2009

4 Long-term demand projections and announced solar projects in the Middle East indicate strong opportunities. Adapted from the KICP Annual Strategic Study 2009

5 Five solar technologies Adapted from the KICP Annual Strategic Study 2009

6 Crystalline silicon: Proven technology Adapted from the KICP Annual Strategic Study 2009

7 Thin-film CIGS: Highest potential for efficiency Adapted from the KICP Annual Strategic Study 2009

8 Concentrating PV (HCPV): Very well suited for locations with high solar irradiation Adapted from the KICP Annual Strategic Study 2009

9 3 rd Gen solar cells Adapted from the KICP Annual Strategic Study 2009

10 Solar thermal heat / CSP: Large domes<c market (possible electricity exporter) Adapted from the KICP Annual Strategic Study 2009

11 Solar Energy implementation in the Middle East: Challenges and Opportunities Awareness of the local challenges will lead to success Solar Resource Assessment The effect of CSR (Circum- Solar Ra<o) Power Demand in the UAE Smart design of solar power plant: Shams 1

12 Solar is a good idea in the Middle East

13 Concentrated Solar Power Power genera?on through the thermal pathway (CSP) For concentrate solar power, the direct the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) is a more relevant measure of the solar resource. Concentra?ng solar technologies can only focus sunlight coming from one direc?on, and use tracking mechanisms to align their collectors with the direc?on of the sun. Power genera?on through the quantum pathway (CPV)

14 Concentra<ng Solar Thermal Technologies makes use of DNI DNI is the solar radia?on measured at a given loca?on on earth with a surface element perpendicular to the sun ray. GHI = DHI + DNI cosθ z

15 Some<mes it s not so clear and the yearly DNI is not so great 19 Feb 2012 Yearly DNI in the UAE is only 1934 kwh/m^2/yr. Loca?ons in Spain have DNI from 2,000-2,300 kwh/m^2/yr, and the best loca?on in the U.S. Southwest have DNI of 2,800 kwh/m^2/yr 19 Feb 2012

16 Ground Data Measurements 1200 GHI (Global Horizontal Irradiance) DNI (Direct Normal Irradiance) 1000 DHI (Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance) GHI, DNI and DHI in W/m² Low component of DNI throughout the year Very high component of DHI throughout the year :10 00:50 01:30 02:10 02:50 03:30 04:10 04:50 05:30 06:10 06:50 07:30 08:10 08:50 09:30 10:10 10:50 11:30 12:10 12:50 13:30 14:10 14:50 15:30 16:10 16:50 17:30 18:10 18:50 19:30 20:10 20:50 21:30 22:10 22:50 23:30 MASDAR City, United Arab Emirates Local Time (UTC + 4h)

17 U<li<es Mapping added on solar assessment by DLR

18 Satellite Solar Maps vs. Ground Data Measurements Satellite data overes<mates the measured DNI of more than 15% throughout the year due to the fact that the model used to interpret the data do not account for high aereosol loading in the atmosphere. (bankability of shams 1) Y. Eissa, M. Chiesa and H. Ghedira Assessment and Recalibra<on of the Heliosat- 2 Method in Global Horizontal Irradiance Modeling over the Desert Environment of the UAE Solar Energy Volume 86, Issue 6, June 2012, Pages

19 Choice of Thermal Channels RED = T10 T09 GREEN = T09 T07 BLUE = T09 Martínez et al. (2009) & Met Office

20 Choice of Thermal Channels

21 Solar Assessment usually based on satellite data, that is not that easy

22 Spa?al Varia?ons: Heavy Dusty Day

23 Spa?al Varia?ons: Moderate Dusty Day

24 DNI & GHI Es?ma?on Sca[er Plots Y. Eissa, P. R. Marpu, I. Gherboudj, H. Ghedira, T. B. M. J. Ouarda and M. Chiesa Es<ma<on of direct normal irradiance from Meteosat S 1 EVIRI thermal channels using a neural network ensemble Under Review Solar Energy

25 Solar Energy implementation in the Middle East: Challenges and Opportunities Awareness of the local challenges will lead to success Solar Resource Assessment The effect of CSR (Circum- Solar Ra<o) Power Demand in the UAE Smart design of solar power plant: Shams 1

26 Measuring equipment: dust focused tools CIMEL is a tracking, mul?- filter radiometer used primarily for inferring aerosol concentra?ons from atmospheric ex?nc?on coefficients by performing Langley analysis in 13 bands of the solar spectrum. The SAM is a tracking camera in which the circumsolar image is captured by a CCD camera.this gives a measure of atmospheric sca[ering of direct solar radia?on.

27 Effect of Sun Shape on CSP Technology Sun Edge Angle: Aureole Extends <ll: o =~ 4.64 mrad 3 o - 4 o = ~ mrad q Concentra?ng solar collectors are designed with angular acceptance angles which are rela?vely close to the angular size of the solar disk 0.266⁰. (maximiza?on of the capture radia?on and minimiza?on of the thermal radia?on from the receiver) q Concentrated technology make use of the direct component of the incoming radia?on, but the DNI measurements instruments have angular acceptance angle which is ten?mes greater than the size of the solar disk. q The solar profile in the UAE has never been inves?gated, but due to the high aerosols concentra?on characterizing the climate in the UAE, we expect high CSR

28 Solar Energy implementation in the Middle East: Challenges and Opportunities Awareness of the local challenges will lead to success Solar Resource Assessment The effect of CSR (Circum- Solar Ra<o) Power Demand in the UAE Smart design of solar power plant: Shams 1

29 Demand vs Solar Resources

30 Power Demand in the UAE: The Abu Dhabi island case Muhammad Tauha Ali 3, Marwan Mokhtar 1, Ma[eo Chiesa, Peter R Armstrong A cooling change- point model of community- aggregate electrical load Energy and Buildings Vol. 43 Issue 1 Pages 28-37, 2011

31 Today s Power Plant Park to Sa?sfy the Load Curve 100% = 5 GW in yr GT peaker plants Mid load CC plants without desalina<on H 2 O Mid load CC plants eventually with desalina<on Base load gas fired CC plants with Desalina<on Electricty hour of the year

32 Possible CSP final penetra?on (beyond 2030) 100% = 20 GW in yr That means that 50% are equivalent to 10 GW capacity GT peaker plants SM = Solar Mul?ple = oversize factor of solar field in comparison to a plant without thermal storage CSP plants with 25% capacity factor (SM = 1.00) CSP plants with 50% capacity factor (SM = 2.00) CSP plants with 75% capacity factor (SM = 3) Base load gas fired CC plants with Desalina<on Solar share of installa<on = 50%, solar share of genera<on = 41% hour of the year

33 Max. possible PV penetra?on 100% = 20 GW in yr The mid load plants, which would be fully replaced by CSP plants need to be maintained by the utility, because the PV plants can only run when the sun shines, and do not replace capacity. Therefore the utility will only pay the saved fuel and variable O&M cost. GT peaker plants PV plants Installed capacity 10 GW Mid load CC plants without desalina?on need to stay in service Mid load CC plants eventually with desalina?on need to stay in service Base load gas fired CC plants with Desalina?on Solar share of installa?on = 50%, solar share of genera?on = 20% hour of the year

34 Solar Energy implementation in the Middle East: Challenges and Opportunities Awareness of the local challenges will lead to success Solar Resource Assessment The effect of CSR (Circum- Solar Ra<o) Power Demand in the UAE Smart design of solar power plant: Shams 1

35 Shams 1: 110 MW CSP plant

36 Shams 1: 100 MW CSP plant

37 Shams 1: 100 MW CSP plant

38 Take home message Local condi<ons requires local exper<se to implement smart design Progress in renewable energy requires an holis<c approach to the energy challenges.