Mountains, Climate Change from Scientific Evidence to Policy and Adaptation

Transcription

1 Mountains, Climate Change from Scientific Evidence to Policy and Adaptation Linking Scientific Evidence to Actions Paolo Cristofanelli, P. Bonasoni, A. Marinoni, E. Vuillermoz, B. Adhikary Italian National Research Council Institute of Atmospheric Science and Climate Comitato Ev-K2-CNR MOUNTAIN DAY - 4 December 2011 COP17, Durban, South Africa

2 > Mountains are barometer of the climate change and anthropic pressure (atmosphere, cryosphere, water, biodiversity ) > Mountains are platform to carry out scientific research and built scientific evidences. Forni glacier (Italy). Picture by A. Marinoni (ISAC-CNR)

3 Mountains as platform : monthly climatology of aerosol light absorption in the «free» troposphere Scientific evidences: The spring-summer increase indicated pollution transport due to increased PBL height and up-slope wind influence

4 Scientific Evidence: acute pollution events in mountain regions At the Nepal Climate Observatory Pyramid (5079 m) 156 days were identified as affected by acute pollution events, the 9.1% of the data-set

5 Scientific Evidence: South Himalayas impacted by high levels of pollution related with combustion emissions. Dramatic BC increases were observed at NCO-P during the pollution events, with mean daily values increasing by 352% with respect to the remaining days The polluted air-masses rich in BC also experienced efficient photochemical processing, as indicated by the significant average O 3 increases (+29% with respect to the remaining days).

6 Scientific Evidence: BC darkening of snow and ice surfaces increases their absorption of sunlight, which exacerbates melting of snow and ice Source F. Dominé, LGGE (by J. Cozic) Pure snow with 1.45ppm of soot with 15.9ppm of soot with 221ppm of soot Starting from BC concentrations measured at NCO-P in pre-monsoon season we estimate: % snow albedo reduction mm runoff increase from a typical Tibetan glacier equal to 24 % of the seasonal runoff [Yasunari et al., ACP, 2010] Wavelength, micron Very little quantities of BC on snow change the albedo significantly : increased melting

7 Scientific Evidence: BC emissions and health threat Epidemiological studies on the population in 4 villages located at different altitudes in the Khumbu valley (Nepal), pointed out: Prevalence of bronchial obstruction higher than expected especially in older subjects Early marker of bronchial obstruction in 42% of the subjects (in literat.18%-25%) Courtesy by A. Cogo (Ferrara University) These population (as 90% of rural household in developing countries) uses biomass fuels for heating and cooking and many houses have not a chimney ( = very high indoor pollution). +biofuel cooking +fossil fuel +biomass burning +fossil fuel +biomass burning More than 1.6 million people in the region die each year as a result of indoor air pollution (Changing Glaciers and Hydrology in Asia: Addressing Vulnerability to Glacier Melt Impacts; Battelle and the USAID, 2010) The effect of biofuel cooking on Asian BC loading (Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2008).

8 A bridge from science to measures for reducing vulnerability Responds to the needs and priorities identified by international research institutions for understanding climate change and its impacts in mountain regions. To provide scientific contribution ensuring long term high quality data by implementing mountain observations. Provides scientific analyses on atmospheric composition, hydrology and water resources, glaciology, biodiversity, human health and anthropogenic impacts. Promoting and implementing an integrated information system on mountain environmental researches. Provides a feasible framework for definition of adaptation and mitigation strategies to support environmental management policies and decision-making processes in developing countries (UNEP Bali Strategic Plan).

9 supports the study of phenomena linked to global change WP1 Scientific Research and Climate Atmosphere Glaciology Water Biodiversity and natural resources Medicine WP3 Information System Development of an integrated Information System to collect information on environmental monitoring activities in mountain regions WP2 Technological research and Climate Development and improvement of systems for research activities at high altitudes WP4 Capacity building Technology and know-how transfer. Providing support to policy on environmental issues. Increasing the scientific capacity of local technicians and researchers in developing countries.

10 Atmospheric Sciences Mountain Hydrology Water Resources Management Forest Management Technologies for territorial management Glaciology Wildlife Management Applied Geology The collaboration between these projects (SEED: ; KT: ) aims to create a management strategy for the CKNP (Central Karakuram National Park) in the north-east of Pakistan's northernmost district Gilgit-Baltistan and sustainable development for the local communities living in the valleys adjoined CKNP.

11 SHARE - PAPRIKA project ( ) Cryospheric responses to anthropogenic pressures in the Hindu Kush Karakoram Himalaya regions: impacts on water resources and availability is devoted to determine the state of the glaciers and of the water reserves in the HKH region and to estimate their future conditions in different climate change scenarios, with special emphasis on the role of atmospheric aerosols Karakorum case study Main goal: estimate water availability in a portion of the upper Indus basin (Shigar river) in coming decades Collaborations LTHE-LGGE Grenoble, France ISAC-CNR Turin, Italy Ev-K2-CNR United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) - Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) - Karakoram International University, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan (KIU) - Ministry of Environment of Pakistan - Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) - Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (NAST) - Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal (DHM) - Kathmandu University - Nepal

12 OBSERVATIONS MODELLING Karakorum PAPRIKA-Karakorum is devoted to determine the state of the glaciers and of the water reserves in the Karakoram and to estimate their future conditions in different climate change scenarios, with special emphasis on the role of atmospheric aerosols IMPACT

13 > Final remarks Mountains are especially vulnerable to climate change, atmospheric pollution and anthropic pressure. The related impacts vary between the different mountain regions depending on such factors as the climate regime, differences in altitude, proximity to pollutant source areas. Initiatives at local to international levels can facilitate rapid and widespread implementation of the measures. Ev-K2-CNR throughout integrated projects and institutional collaborations is working to built a bridge from scientific measurements towards implementation of effective mitigation/adaptation measures in mountain regions

14 Linking Scientific Evidence to Actions THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Kamal Thapa Magar, Class: 4, Khumjung High School Climate Change: Voices of Khumbu s Children

15 Policy and Adaptation in vulnerable regions Policy is a key catalyst for initiating, driving and coordinating adaptation to climate change, providing a strategic framework for effective action. A sound legal framework is a crucial complement to political support. Raising stakeholder awareness about the need for anticipatory adaptation actions is vital Technological measures play a crucial role Effective processes depend a great deal on the people involved and their motivations, as well as organizational factors such as stakeholder participation processes or cooperative structures Local practices and social networks are also key. (The Alps facing the challenge of changing water resources, EEA 2009)