ATMOSPHERIC BROWN CLOUDS PROGRAM ADDRESSING THE NEXUS BETWEEN AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE

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1 ATMOSPHERIC BROWN CLOUDS PROGRAM ADDRESSING THE NEXUS BETWEEN AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE Veerabhadran Ramanathan Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California at San Diego, CA APCAP-IIASA- MEETING AT TOKYO MARCH 10, 2015 SPONSORED BY UNEP; FUNDED BY UNEP AND PARTCIPATING NATIONS T4B: Top 4 billion B3B: Bottom 3 Billion

2 ABC: Vision & Action Plan ABCs: Aerosols & ozone and ozone precursors; GHGs Preliminary Assessment Report, Aug 2002 Think Globally The first impact assessment report, Nov 2008 Assess Regionally Act Locally Ref for Slogan: C Kennel, 2009

3 Over 10 Years of Knowledge to Action Major Milestones: Setting the Maldives and Gosan Super Observatory (Funded by USA,SIDA and Korea) Setting the Pyramid Observatory at Himalayas (Funded by Italy and EC) UAV PLATFORMS REGIONAL ASSESSMENTS: 2002; 2008 UNEP/WMO BLACK CARBON AND OZONE ASSESSMENT (2011) FORMATION OF CLIMATE AND CLEAN AIR COALITION (2012)

4 2008 China; Germany; India; Italy; Japan; Kenya; Korea; Maldives; Nepal; S. Africa; Sweden; USA The First Such regional Report ABCsThreaten Public Health, Water Security and Food Security of Asia V. Ramanathan, H. Rodhe, M. Agrawal, H. Akimoto, M. Auffhammer,U.K. Chopra, L. Emberson, S.I. Hasnain, M. Iyngararasan, A. Jayaraman, M. Lawrence, T. Nakajima, M. Ruchirawat, A. K. Singh, J.R. Vincent, Y. Zhang

5 ABC Regional Hot Spots Back Scattering (Cooling) UNEP-ABC 2008 Report; Ramanathan et al, 2008 Indo-Asian-Pacific Plume European Plume SE Asian-Australian Plume N American Plume E Asian-Pacific-N American Plume Latin American Plume N Atlantic-African-S Indian Ocean Plume Amazonian Plume

6 MEGA CITY ABC HOTSPOTS as of: 2008 Category based on satellite derived column amount of particles (defined optically) Bangkok Karachi Dhaka Lagos Shenzen Tehran Kolkatta Beijing CAIRO Shanghai New Delhi Mumbai Seoul Tokyo UNEP-ABC 2008 Report

7 ABC IS ABOUT SAVING LIVES IN THE MILLIONS 7 MILLION DEATHS DUE TO AMBIENT & HOUSEHOLD AIR POLLUTION 4.3 MILLION DEATHS DUE TO HOUSEHOLD EMISSIONS FROM COOKING, HEATING AND LIGHTING 75% OF FATALTIES OCCUR IN ASIA Economic Cost of Outdoor Air Pollution: CHINA : $ 1400 Billion (USD) INDIA: $500 Billion (USD) 1 Billion : 10 9.

8 November December DEPOSITION OF BC ON SNOW MELTING OF GLACIERS >500,000 deaths from indoor Pollution deaths from outdoor Pollution ATMOSPHERIC SOLAR HEATING: MELTING OF GLACIERS; DISRUPTION OF MONSOON 5.5 MILLIONS OF TONS OF CROP DAMAGES DIMMING OF SURFACE: DECREASING EVAPORATION; DECREASING MONSOON RAINFALL NASA-MODIS INTENSITY OF HURRICANES

9 One of the major highlights of the ABC program is the establishment of The EV-K2-CNR Pyramid Observatory by the Italian Government and scientists It is likely the Himalayan Glaciers is one of the Tipping Points of Climate Change and We still Have the Chance to prevent it

10 Pathway for limiting global warming to 2 C (3.6 F) Ramanathan and Xu, PNAS, 2010 I.Stabilize Carbon Dioxide Concentrations below 440ppm (T4B Challenge) II. Reduce Short Lived Climate Pollutants (T4B and B3B problem) ( contributes 40% of current Global warming): Black Carbon (<2 weeks); Ozone (< 2 months); Methane (<15 years) HFCs & HCFCs (<15 years) 25 to 4000 times more effective than CO 2 on years scale

11 Role of CO2 and SLCPs Mitigation in future Warming & Sea Level Rise SLCPs: BC+Methane+ Ozone+HFCs SLCPs can reduce near term ( ) warming by as much as 50% SLCPs can reduce end of century sea level rise by about 25% Simultaneous CO2 mitigation is crucial for limiting end of century warming below 2 0 C Source: Ramanathan and Xu.2010 & HU et al, 2013

12 2011 Chair: D. Shindell Vice Chairs: Ramanathan, Raes, Cifuentes & Oanh Shindell, D., Ramanathan, V., Raes, F., Cifuentes, L., & Kim Oanh, N. T. (2011). Integrated assessment of black carbon and tropospheric ozone (pp ). Nairobi: UNEP and WMO. Retrieved from ClimateChange/tabid/7002/Default.aspx

13 Feb 16, 2012 Now 30 nations have joined. European Union and World Bank; Many Major NGOs have joined in this Second Front Against Climate Change SLCPs Intersect With development issues- B3B Issues

14 The B3B World Biomass is fuel source for cooking/heating for about 2.7 Billion Second largest source of Black Carbon; also CO/Methane/VOCs 4.2 Million die each year from air pollution (indoor/outdoor) Mukteshwar, Central Himalayas, India Photo:Ramanathan, 2009

15 Mukteshwar, Himalayas Photo: Ramanathan

16 Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Major New Findings by ABC Team Sweden & Maldives (Gustafsson and others) Gustafsson et al, 2012; 2013 Innovative Isotope techniques yield more accurate data on relative role of biomass and fossil fuels for BC concentrations over S. Asia. Provided convinving evidence for the major role of biomass combustion in ABCs. Supported earlier single particle INDOEX findings of Prather Group(2002).

17 Providing Clean Cooking and Lighting Technologies & documenting their impacts on Air pollution, Climate Forcing, Health Exposure Indoors and outdoors PIs: V. Ramanathan, I.H. Rehman and N. Ramanathan Incubator CORE INSTITUTIONS University of California at San Diego, USA The Energy Resources Institute, Delhi, India Nexleaf Analytics, Los Angeles, USA Collaborating Institutions U. Iowa, USA Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi, India Duke University, USA Carbonomics, USA Environmental Financial products LLC, USA U. Of Southern California, USA University of Nairobi (Kenya) African Center for Technology Studies (Kenya) Appropriate Solar and Wood Energy Network (Kenya) Department of Environment (Bangladesh) Dhaka University (Bangladesh) Alternative Energy Promotion Center (Nepal) National Environment Commission (Bhutan)

18 Have Identified the Technology that reduces BC emissions Kar et al, 2011

19 Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Major New Findings by ABC Team Yet another warming pollutant has Been identified: Brown Carbon from Open Biomass Burning and tarballs from fossil fuels Korea-USA Team Chung, et al, PNAS, 2012 Bahadur et al, 2012 Feng et al, 2013

20 Scripps Inst. of Oceanography University of California at San Diego Oakland, California, October 18,

21 California Air Resource Board Study Ramanathan et al, 2013 California s BC Decreased drastically Due to mitigation of Diesel emissions Trends in Co-emitted Cooling Species was negligible

22 Air Pollution Mitigation does not deter development! 22

23 THE ICAMP TWELVE-POINT KNOWLEDGE TO ACTION AGENDA Ramanathan, Sundar, Harnish, Sharma, Seddon, Lloyd et al, LAND USE PLANNING, TELECOMMUTING, AND OTHER OPTIONS 9. PROMOTE NON-MOTORIZED TRANSPORT (NMT): WALK AND BICYCLE 10. SHIFT TRANSPORTATION TO OTHER MODES (FROM HIGHER TO LOWER-EMITTING FORMS OF TRANSPORT) 1. UPGRADE FUEL QUALITY 2. TIGHTEN VEHICLE EMISSION STANDARDS 3. FOSTER DEVELOPMENT IN NEW ENGINE MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY 4. INCREASE DISTRIBUTION OF HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLE S. USE MICRO GRID WITH ELECTRIC AND HYBRID VEHICLE 6. UPGRADE IN-USE TESTING (INSPECTION AND ENFORCEMENT) 7. FLEET MODERNIZATION CROSS CUTTING TOOLS 11. BUILD INFORMATION BASIS: MONITORING12. INCREASE COOPERATION BETWEEN THE CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCES BOARD (CARB) AND GOVERNMENT OF INDIA (GOI) ON EMISSION REDUCTION PROGRAMS

24 Atmospheric Brown Clouds: New Initiatives by ABC Team Regional Model Intercomparison Study Japan(Nakajima), USA (Carmichael) & the Whole Team SUSKAT: Field study in the Eastern Himalayas Germany(Lawrence; Rupakheti); Nepal (ICIMOD) LAISI: Proposed NASA-High Altitude Study of Role of Dust and Black Carbon in Himalayan Glacier Melting USA(JPL; Scripps); Italy (EC2); Germany; ICIMOD

25 AIR POLLUTION IS ONE OF THE MAJOR ISSUES IN SUSTAINABLE DEVLEOPMENT: HEALTH, FOOD, WATER AND CLEAN ENERGY ACCESS FOR ALL T4B: The top 4 Billion with seemingly unlimited access to fossil fuels. What WE should do is Reduce OUR Carbon footprint. B3B: The bottom 3 billion lack access to fossil fuels. What they need is Clean Energy Access

26 My Personal Recommendation for the Next Phase of ABC ABC INITIATE A COLLABAORATIVE KNOWLEDGE TO ACTION PROGRAM FOR REDUCING BC AND PM IN EAST ASIA REQUIRES SCIENCE (ABC-UNEP), TECHNOLOGY (CCAC &XXX-UNEP), POLICY (NATIONAL/PROVINCE GOVTS-UNEP) AND GOVERNANCE (LOCAL GOVTS-UNEP)

27 What is at Stake here? Thank you CCAC and to all participants for accepting our invitation Sustainability and for making Gains this meeting a great success Saving hours of time lost and hard labor to collection of firewood (1.5 ton to 2 tons of wood per year by women and girls) Saving >3 million lives lost to air pollution from residential cooking with solid fuels Saving 100 millions of tons of crops lost to air pollution Ramanathan, April 2013 Mitigating 1 billion ton of CO 2 per year from avoided deforestation; Mitigating another 2 billion tons of CO 2 equivalent due to black carbon and ozone Diesel Black Carbon Food Wastage (in B3B World) : 1.6 Billion Tons/Year : About 2 billion Ton