Energy Technologies: Trends and Needs in The European Energy Delphi Survey

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2 Energy Technologies: Trends and Needs in 2030 Titelfolie The European Energy Delphi Survey European Energy Day, Königswinter, 25. May 2005 Timon Wehnert Institut für Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung, Berlin Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment, Berlin

3 Outline Objectives, Scope, Approach What will happen? Time horizons of technological developments What should happen? Societal demands and future needs Conclusion Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

4 Partners IZT - Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment, Berlin, Germany EC BREC - EC Baltic Renewable Energy Centre, Warsaw, Poland IEFE - Bocconi University, Milan, Italy Prospektiker European Institute for Futures Studies and Strategic Planning, Zarautz, Spain RISØ National Laboratory, Risø, Denmark Entrusted by the European Commission DG Research EESD Programme Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

5 Objectives Prospective: Long-term trends in energy technology development Normative: Technology Assessment regarding societal needs Development of R&D policy recommendations Focus on emerging technologies Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

6 Scope 1st Europe-wide Delphi Study on Social and Technological Visions in the Energy Sector Time horizon 2030 EU Delphi rounds with >3400 invited energy experts Project Duration: October 2002 September 2004 Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

7 Conduction Design of Delphi of Delphi Questionnaire Survey Web-based questionnaire First round 680 replies Interim evaluation Second round 470 replies Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

8 Experts: Institutional Background Academia 11% 8% 34% Industry Consulting Public agency 18% NGO and other 29% Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

9 Expertise 9% Technology 23% Business Public policy Other 55% 13% Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

10 Origin of Experts EU 15 EU New Member States Candidate States 13% 3% 4% 6% Associated States Rest of World 74%! Within EU: Expert distribution corresponds with number of inhabitants per country Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

11 What will happen?»i always avoid prophesying beforehand because it is much better to prophesy after the event has already taken place.«winston Churchill Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

12 Results on Time Horizons Time horizons of technology development from the European Energy Delphi EurEnDel Contrasted with results from: European Energy and Transport Trends to 2030 (PRIMES, Business As Usual Scenario) Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

13 Topics Supply - Infrastructure - Demand Nuclear Technologies Renewables Storage and Grids Energy Efficiency Transportation and Fuels Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

14 Nuclear Technologies Strong national deviations Plasma-Technologie for Fusion Plasma confinement technologies for nuclear fusion are in practical use 22% 5% Safe Fission Nuclear power plants based on passive safe reactor types are in practical use 19% 5% 25% Quartile Mean Value 75% Quartile Experts / Knowledgeable / Familiar Only Experts Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

15 Renewables Never 25% Renewables 4% Renewable energy sources cover 25% of Europe s total energy 9% supply [Today it is 6%] EurEnDel: 25 % in 2028, Trends 2030: 9 % in 2030, with CO 2 -Emission Trading: 11 % 5% Photovoltaic 9% Photovoltaic cells contribute with >5% of European electricity 16% generation [Today it is 0.15%] EurEnDel: 5 % in 2033, Trends 2030: 1,3 % of capacity in 2030 ( 0,5 %) Ocean Technologies Ocean technologies (e.g. tidal, currents, and wave) are in practical use Biomass Biomass for central heating and district heating systems is widely used Wide statistical spread Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th % 3% 5% 7%

16 2 from Diverse Sources Hydrogen produced from diverse sources and used as an energy carrier constitutes a significant part of the energy system. Storage & Renewables Never EurEnDel: significant share 2031, Trends 2030: 0,1 % energy demand % 5% 2 from Renewables Hydrogen produced solely from renewables and used as an energy carrier constitutes a significant part of the energy system 10% 19% nergy Storage for Renewable Energy Systems Advanced energy storage technologies are widely used in renewable energy supply systems 5% Renewables Renewable energy sources cover 25% of Europe s total energy supply [Today it is 6%] 1% 3% 4% 9% Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

17 Grids & Infrastructure Never uperconductive Materials Widespread use of superconductive materials in transformers and generators 2% 2% 0% Decentralised Generation Distributed energy systems (< 10 MW) contribute with >30% to Europe's electricity supply nternational Grids Large international grids allow an energy production based on regional renewables (solar-thermal power from North Africa, biomass from Central Europe etc.) 4% 2% 16% 14% Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

18 Energy Efficiency Never Energy Efficiency in Industry Industrial energy consumption in Europe is reduced by 50% per produced unit through novel production processes Low-energy Buildings Low-energy buildings with intelligent power systems make up >50% of all new buildings in Europe 2% 5% EurEnDel: - 50 % by 2028, Trends 2030: - 38 % by % 0% Legend: 25% Quartile Mean Value 75% Quartile Experts / Knowledgeable / Familiar Only Experts Small statistical spread of replies Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

19 Transport 20% Fuel Cell Cars Fuel cell driven cars reach an European market share of 20% Never EurEnDel: 20 % by 2027, Trends 2030: no significant share until % 2% 25% Bio-Fuels Bio-fuels will have an European market share of >25% in the road transport sector 15% 26% EurEnDel: 25 % by 2027, Trends 2030: 5 % by % Freight on Rail Improved logistics based on information and communication technologies raise the 10% railway's market share in Europe's freight 2% transport to 15% [1990: 11%, today: 8%] EurEnDel: increasing share of rail, Trends 2030: share of rail decreases constantly Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

20 Fuels for Fuel Cells Never 20% Fuel Cell Cars Fuel cell driven cars reach an European market share of 20% 1% 2% H 2 from diverse Sources Hydrogen produced from diverse sources and used as an energy carrier constitutes a significant part of the energy system. 3% 5% In the beginning fuel cell cars will not solely be driven by hydrogen 10% 19% Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

21 Biomass: stationary / mobile? Never 25% Bio-Fuels Bio-fuels will have an European market share of >25% in the road transport sector 15% 26% Biomass Biomass for central heating and district heating systems is widely used 5% 7% Competition of mobile and stationary uses for biomass/bio-fuel sources Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

22 What should happen?»the best way to predict the future is to invent it.«alan Kay Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

23 Top 5: 25% Renewables Delphi Statements Positive Impacts 25% RES Energy efficiency in industry Low-energy houses H2 from renewables Novel production processes Intelligent buildings H2 f rom RES Energy storage for renewable energy systems Energy storage in RES Bottom: Plasma-technology for fusion Superconducting materials CO 2 sequestration and storage Safe Fission Plasma confinement tech Superconductive materials CO2 capture and seq. Safe fission Wealth Creation Ecology Quality of Life Security of Supply Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

24 Three Societal Visions Individual Choice Ecological Balance Social Equity Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

25 Individual Choice Vision 1 Individual Choice is based on: Individual Choice is prime societal value Liberalised Markets Strong emphasis on consumers sovereignty Transparent costs and fair competition allow to choose products and services according to individual needs and personal preferences Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

26 Individual Choice Which Technologies / Energy Sources are Important? Top 5: Energy Conservation Technologies Natural Gas Imports (Pipelines) Fuel Cells Energy Storage (Electrical) Alternative Fuels Energy conservation Energiesparmaßnahmen tech. NG import Erdgas (pipelines) Fuel Brennstoffzelle cells Energy storage for Elektr. el. Energiespeicher power Alt. Transport Alternative fuels Kraftstoffe Demand side Demand-side man.systems Management Paneuropean Paneuropäische grid Netze Wasserstoff H2 Biomass Biomasse Wind Wind NG import Erdgas liquefied (verflüssigt) Photovoltaik PV Nuclear fission Kernspaltung CO2 sequestration CO2 Abscheidung Geothermal Geothermie Ocean Meerestechnologien power 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

27 Ecological Balance Vision 2 Ecological Balance is based on: To live a live in balance with nature Protection of the ecosystem is prime political target The polluter pays principle is strictly enforced Precautionary principle and closed cycles are state of the art in industry Higher Costs for ecological sound solutions are accepted by the consumers Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

28 Ecological Balance Which Technologies / Energy Sources are Important? Importance of technologies and sources in Vision 2 - Ecological Balance very important important low importance unimportant Top 5: Energy Conservation Technologies Wind Alternative Fuels Biomass Fuel Cells Energy conservation Energy conservation tech. Wind Wind Alt. Transport fuels Alt. Transport fuels Biomass Biomass Fuel cells Fuel cells Demand side man.systems Demand side PV Energy storage for el. Energy storage power for el. H2 CO2 sequestration PV H2 CO2 sequestration Geothermal Geothermal Ocean power Ocean power Paneuropean grid Paneuropean grid NG import pipeline NG import pipeline NG import liquefied NG import liquefied Nuclear fission Nuclear fission 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

29 Vision 3 Social Equity is based on: Social Equity Greatest possible social equity is prime moral value in Europe in 2030 European Policy aims at Minimising income disparities Social responsibility as high priority in industry Employment intensive alternatives are being favoured Society is willing to socialise costs. Burden sharing to foster equity is widely accepted Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

30 Social Equity Which Technologies / Energy Sources are Important? Energy conservation Energy conservation tech. Importance of technologies and sources in Vision 3 - Social Equity very important important low importance unimportant Top 5: Energy Conservation Technologies Demand-side Management Biomass Wind Alternative Fuels Demand side man.systems Demand side man.systems Biomass Biomass Wind Wind Alt. Transport fuels Alt. Transport fuels Fuel cells Fuel cells Energy storage for el. power Energy storage for el. power H2 PV NG import pipeline H2 PV NG import pipeline Paneuropean grid Paneuropean grid NG import liquefied NG import liquefied Geothermal Geothermal CO2 sequestration CO2 sequestration Ocean power Ocean power Nuclear fission Nuclear fission 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

31 Conclusion 1 No Business-As-Usual scenario anticipated by the European energy experts Economy focussed models underestimate emerging technologies Experts show technological optimism BUT: Developments will not happen by itself Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

32 Conclusion 2 Higher Energy Efficiency is top priority Underinvestment risk additional measures needed Fuels for Transportation: No clear solution alternative paths with divers fuel mixes Energy Storage will become key technologies (not only for renewables). Alternatives for H 2 necessary Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

33 Conclusion 3 Renewables considered highly beneficial for ecology and security of supply Strong controversies on role of nuclear and CO 2 sequestration Natural gas has bridging function High infrastructural needs and risk of dependency Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

34 Thank You All results are available at: Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

35 Backup Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

36 Definitions Practical use: the first practical use of an innovative product or service Widespread use: market penetration to a level where a product or service is in common us Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

37 Definitions Expertise Expert - if you consider yourself to belong to that community of people who currently dedicate themselves to this topic. Knowledgeable - a. if you were an expert in it some time ago, but feel somewhat rusty now; b. if you are in the process of becoming an expert but still have some way to go to achieve mastery of the topic; c. if you work in a neighbouring field and occasionally draw upon or contribute to the development of this topic. Familiar - if you know most of the arguments used in discussions on the topic, you have read about it, and have formed an opinion about it. Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th

38 Definitions Impact Wealth creation is defined as the economic growth of the European economy measured in GNP/capita. Environment is defined as the natural environment, biological diversity, air and water. Quality of life is defined as major advancement in health and safety, education, employment, affordable housing, and cultural and recreational opportunities for most people. Security of supply is defined as robustness of security of energy supply to ensure that European citizens are not exposed to shortages of energy supply and that Europe is not affected by international policy and conflicts in this area. Timon Wehnert, IZT - EurEnDel, Königswinter May 25th