Alternative Nuclear Energy Futures

Transcription

1 Alternative Nuclear Energy Futures Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen Charles Forsberg Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology 77 Massachusetts Ave; Bld a; Cambridge, MA Tel: (617) ; World Nuclear University Institute Christ Church, Oxford, England Tuesday July 6, 2009 MIT Center for Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems File: Nuclear Renewable Futures; Great Britain July2010

2 2 Alternative Nuclear Energy Futures Charles Forsberg

3 3 Outline The Energy Challenge The Variable Electricity Challenge Electricity storage requirements Nuclear-geothermal heat storage Nuclear-Hydrogen Production, Use, and Storage Peak electricity from hydrogen Nuclear-Renewable Electricity and Hydrogen Liquid Fuels

4 The Energy Challenge 4

5 Energy Futures May Be Determined By Two Sustainability Goals No Imported Crude Oil No Climate Change 5 Romania Bulgaria Ukraine Black Sea Russia Kazakhstan Aral Sea Middle East Georgia Caspian Uzb ekistan Greece Turkey Armenia Azerbaijan Sea Turkmenistan Lake Van Lake Urmia Cyprus Syria Lebanon Mediterranean Sea Israel Suez Canal Jordan Iraq Iraq Iran Iran Afghanistan Pakistan Egypt Tropic of Cancer Gulf of Suez Lake Nasser Gulf of Aqaba Persian Gulf Strait of Hormuz Saudi Arabia Qatar Oman Bahrain Gulf of Oman United Arab Emirates Saudi Arabia Oman Red Sea Sudan Eritrea T'ana Hayk Ethiopia Djibouti Yemen Gulf of Aden Somalia Arabian Sea Socotra (Yem en) kilometers miles Athabasca Glacier, Jasper National Park, Alberta, Canada Photo provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center 2050 Goal: Reduce Greenhouse Gases by 80%

6 Oil and Gas Reserves Are Concentrated in the Persian Gulf Reserves of Leading Oil and Gas Companies (2007) 6 Rank Company Total Oil/Gas Reserves: Oil Equivalent (10 9 Barrels) 1 Saudi Arabian Oil Company National Iranian Oil Company Qatar General Petroleum Corp Iraq National Oil Company 134 Non-Government Corporations 17 ExxonMobil Corp BP Corp. 13 Price and Availability are Political Decisions

7 7 Fossil Fuels Are a Major Challenge: Oil Dependency and CO 2 Emissions Share of Total World Primary Energy Supply in 2007 Goal: 80% Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Releases by 2050 OECD/IEA 2009;

8 8 U.S. Sources of Greenhouse Gases If Goal is 80% Reduction, Fossil Fuels Without Sequestration Just About Eliminated Mechanical Engineering, September 2009

9 Need To Rethink Nuclear Energy For a Low-Carbon Low-Oil World 9 Today we use nuclear energy for base-load electricity Electricity is 40% of energy production in the U.S. Base-load electricity is two-thirds of electricity production Implies nuclear energy could meet 25 to 30% of energy demand Need solutions to meet the oil and climate challenge! An energy solution may be required where Nuclear power meets 50 to 75% of total energy demand Nuclear energy has new roles beyond base-load electricity

10 The Variable Electricity Challenge Electricity Storage for a Low-Carbon World

11 Electricity Demand Varies By the Day, Week, and Season 11 Summer Winter Spring Workweek Weekend Hourly load forecasts for 3 different weeks in Illinois, USA 11

12 < >95 Hours/year Variable Electricity Demand Results in Variable Electricity Prices 5,000 Price vs. Hours/year 12 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Data for Los Angeles Department of Water and Power - Dollars/MW(e)-h FY 2004 FERC Marginal Price ($/MWh)

13 Fossil Fuels Are Used to Match Electricity Supply with Demand 13 Fossil fuels are inexpensive to store (coal piles, oil tanks, etc.) Systems to convert fossil fuels to heat or electricity have low capital costs Only two options today for peak electricity Fossil fuels (Usually natural gas) Hydroelectricity (Available in only some locations) What replaces fossil-fuel peak electricity if fossil fuel use is limited or expensive?

14 Hundreds of Meters Daily-to-Seasonal Energy Storage 14 Water But Not Enough Hoover Dams Heat Thermal Input to Rock Thermal Output From Rock Nuclear Plant Fluid Return Cap Rock Permeable Rock Shale Oil Hydrogen Electricity Hydrogen Storage Electricity Geothermal Plant Fluid Input

15 Electricity Storage Requirements For All-Nuclear, All-Wind, and All-Solar Worlds U.S. Data Analysis Ongoing R&D at MIT

16 Storage Requirements Depend Upon Demand and Electricity Production Characteristics Nuclear (Most economic) Steady state output Wind Highly variable on a daily, weekly, and yearly basis Strong seasonal characteristics Solar Predictable variations Strong seasonal characteristics 16

17 Demand (10 4 MW(e)) All-Nuclear Electricity World With Storage Base-Load Electricity Demand Increases by 50% Perfect Storage: ~7% Electricity Direct to Storage 17 New Base Load With Storage Existing Base Load Time (hours since beginning of year)

18 CAISO Electricity Production and Demand: All-Nuclear, All-Wind, or All-Solar Worlds 18 CAISO = California ISO (California s Power Grid); 2005 Weekly Data Trough Solar with Some Internal Storage

19 Energy Storage Requirements As Fraction of Total Electricity Produced All Nuclear, All Wind, or All Solar Systems New England Electrical Grid Hourly Daily Seasonal Nuclear Wind California Electrical Grid Hourly Daily Seasonal Nuclear Wind Solar To meet hourly, daily, or seasonal variations in electricity demand 19

20 Nuclear-Geothermal Heat Storage Gigawatt-Year Heat Storage for Peak Electricity or Heat for Industrial Applications Ongoing R&D at MIT

21 Hundreds of of Meters Meters 21 Nuclear-Geothermal System Thermal Input to Rock Thermal Output From Rock Cap Rock Nuclear Plant Fluid Return Oil Permeable Shale Rock Geothermal Plant Fluid Input Nesjavellir Geothermal power plant; Iceland; 120MW(e); Wikimedia Commons (2010)

22 22 Why Store Heat? Nuclear reactors produce heat, thus direct transfer of heat to storage Avoid conversion loses to different storage media (batteries, hydrogen, water at elevation) Heat storage media (rock) is cheap Economic costs of inefficiencies are small compared to electricity Value of heat is one-third that of electricity Light water reactors are 33% efficient (electricity divided by heat generated)

23 Heat Storage Must Be Large or Deep to Avoid Excessive Heat Losses Intrinsic Gigawatt-Year (Nuclear) Storage System / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Large Heat Storage Heat Capacity ~ Volume (L 3 ) L ~ 500 m No Insulation Heat Losses ~6L 2 Must minimize fluid loss Deep Heat Storage Rock temperatures increase with depth 23 If sufficient depth, storage and rock temperatures match; pressure opposes fluid leakage Requires deep wells (kilometers) with high costs

24 24 Nuclear-Geothermal Heat-Storage Implications New Technology in Development Enables renewables by addressing daily, weekly, and seasonal storage Electricity when no wind or sun Preliminary economics favors intermediate load Expands use of nuclear heat for industrial applications Produce heat at times of low energy costs Use heat when need Decouples heat demand from reactor production schedule

25 Nuclear-Hydrogen Production, Storage, and Use

26 Growing Hydrogen Markets Market Independent of Hydrogen-Fueled Vehicles Liquid fuels production: Major market today Hydrogenation of heavy oil, tar sands, and coal to produce gasoline and diesel Removal of sulfur from liquid fuels Chemical feedstock Fertilizer (all nitrate fertilizers): Major market today Hydrogenation of chemicals (Corn oil, etc.) Production of metals Future markets Biofuels production Peak electricity 26

27 Hydrogen Can Replace Carbon For Materials Production Iron Example 27 Iron ore + Carbon Pig iron + Carbon dioxide Primary production process today Iron ore + Hydrogen Iron + Water 4% of all iron production Produces high-purity iron Major future market in materials production if constraints on greenhouse gas releases

28 Alkaline Electrolysis Commercial hydrogen production technology Primary technology until the 1950s 2H 2 O + electricity 2H 2 + O 2 Efficiency: 66% LHV Cell lifetime: 20 years Capital costs are decreasing and efficiency is increasing 28

29 High-Temperature Electrolysis (HTE) Steam Electrolysis of Water Technology being developed 29 2 H 2 O + Electricity + Heat 2H 2 + O 2 Solid-oxide fuel cell in reverse Oxygen transport though membrane Operating temperature ~800 C More efficient than electrolysis Heat converts water to steam (gas) Higher temperature weakens chemical bond Electricity breaks chemical bond Potential to exceed 50% efficiency with high-temperature reactors High-Temperature Electrolysis Cell (Courtesy of INL and Ceramatec)

30 High-Temperature Electrolysis Using Light-Water Reactors (LWRs) 30 Steam at 200 to 300 C Heat steam to cell temperatures Hot product H 2 and O 2 heats incoming steam to ~800 C Final temperature boost from electrical inefficiencies Estimated LWR efficiencies Electricity: 36% Cold electrolysis: 25.7% HTE: 33 to 34% High-Temperature Electrolysis Cell (Courtesy of INL and Ceramatec)

31 Hydrogen Production Can Help Match Electricity Generation To Demand 31 Produce hydrogen at times of low-cost electricity Stop production of hydrogen when high electricity demand Requires electrolysis-based hydrogen production Need low-cost electrolyzers

32 32 Thermochemical Cycles 2H 2 O + Heat 2H 2 + O 2 Potential for better economics Heat is cheaper than electricity Potential to scale up to large equipment sizes Many proposed cycles with peak temperatures from ~500 C to 1000 C Long-term option much R&D is required

33 Thermochemical Hydrogen Production Example: Sulfur-Iodine Process Water 33 Oxygen 2H O 2 H 2 Hydrogen O 2 SO 2 I 2 Heat o C H2SO 4 O + SO + ½O H I 2 + SO2 + 2H2O 2HI + H 2 SO 4 2HI H 2 + I 2 H 2 SO 4 HI

34 Commercial Large-Scale Underground Hydrogen Storage Is Inexpensive Only low-cost hydrogen storage option Based on natural-gas storage technology U.S. stores a quarter of a year s natural gas supply in 400 such facilities 34 Chevron Phillips Clemens Terminal for H x 1000 ft cylinder in salt deposit Many geology options

35 Peak Electricity from Hydrogen Ongoing R&D at MIT

36 36 Peak Electricity Can Be Produced From Stored H 2 Require High-Efficiency Low-Capital-Cost System Operates a Limited Number of Hours per Year Today: Gas Turbine Mid-term: Being Developed High-temperature fuel cells operated in reverse Fuel cell / gas turbine ~70% efficiency Siemens Oxy-hydrogen steam cycle ~70% efficiency Courtesy of Clean Energy Systems

37 37 H 2 Peak Electricity Challenges Energy conversion losses in two directions (Versus heat storage) Electricity Hydrogen Electricity Heat Electricity Capital costs for a system operating for a limited number of hours per year Potential solution strategies High efficiency by using electrolysis H 2 + O 2 Same equipment for H 2 production and use

38 Peak Electricity with HTE 38 Minimize Capital Cost: Fuel Cell HTE Same System Electricity High-Temperature Electrolysis / Fuel Cell Storage Nuclear Energy Off-Peak Electricity and Heat H 2 Peak H 2 Off-Peak Peak Electricity Peak Electricity O 2 Off-Peak O 2 Peak

39 39 Peak-Electricity With Oxy-H 2 Steam Cycle Hydrogen Burner Steam 1500º C Steam Turbine Generator High-temperature (1500 C) steam cycle Oxygen Water Cooling Water In Out 2H 2 + O 2 Steam Aero-derived Turbine Low cost Direct steam production No boiler High efficiency (+70%) Being developed for multiple purposes Pump Condenser Clean Energy Systems 170-MWt, 30-cm Combustor

40 Oxy-Hydrogen Combustor Replaces Steam Boiler: Lower Cost & Higher Efficiency But Requires Hydrogen and Oxygen As Feed MWt 30-Cm Oxy-Fuel Combustor to Produce Steam Courtesy of Clean Energy Systems Coal Boiler to Produce Steam

41 Nuclear-Renewable Electricity and H 2 Production Using Low-Cost Stranded Renewables and Nuclear to Economically Meet Local Electricity Demand and Export Hydrogen to Markets Ongoing R&D at MIT

42 42 Wind The Near Term Renewable Wind characteristics A 15% increase in wind velocity implies a 50% increase in output Not dispatchable: Electric Reliability Council of Texas experience Megawatts of nameplate capacity For meeting peak loads, only 8.7% of wind nameplate capacity is dependable Large-scale wind requires either: Backup electricity supply (expensive) Energy storage in some form

43 43 Renewable Economics Are Site Dependent Economics are highly sensitive to location Wind Low-cost wind far from markets Offshore wind expensive How to export stranded wind energy? Wind Resource Map

44 44 Test case Nuclear-Wind Option North Dakota wind Co-sited nuclear and wind plants Products Local electricity Hydrogen Chicago refineries Alberta tar sands Avoid expensive electricity storage May be competitive

45 Nuclear Stranded-Renewable Electric-Hydrogen System 45 Base-Load Nuclear Power Plant Electricity and / or Steam Output High-Capital- Cost Systems Operate at High- Capacity Factors Medium-Voltage Electricity Steam/ Heat Wind or Solar High Temperature Electrolysis Hydrogen Underground Hydrogen Storage High-Voltage Electricity Hydrogen Pipeline Products Variable Electricity To Local Grid Steady State Export of Hydrogen to Industrial Users 45

46 46 Wind-Nuclear System Analysis Electricity to the grid Electricity to H 2 production Low wind conditions

47 47 Potential for Viable Economics High-capital-cost systems operate at full capacity Nuclear power plant Wind when the wind blows Hydrogen pipeline constant full flow Underground hydrogen storage is cheap Major cost uncertainty is the electrolyzer Wide range of capital cost estimates How much can the electrolyzer be pushed when low cost power is available?

48 Liquid Fuels Oil Supplies 35% of World Energy Demand Options to Reduce Oil Consumption In the Production Process and Reduce Greenhouse Gas Releases Ongoing R&D at MIT

49 We Will Not Run Out of Liquid Fuels But the Less a Feedstock Resembles Gasoline, The More Energy it Takes in the Conversion Process 49 Agricultural Residues Sugar Cane Urban Residues Coal

50 Greenhouse Impacts (g CO 2 -eq/mile in SUV) Source of Greenhouse Impacts Nuclear Energy Can Supply Vehicle Greenhouse-Gas Emissions (Energy) Vs Feedstock to Make Diesel Fuel Transportation/Distribution Conversion/Refining Extraction/Production End Use Combustion Business As Usual Making and Delivering of Fuel Using Fuel 0 Wyoming Sweet Crude Oil Pipeline Natural Gas (Fisher-Tropsch Liquids) Venezuelan Syncrude Illinois #6 Coal Baseline (Fisher-Tropsch Liquids) Feedstock

51 Some Types of Oil Recovery Require Massive Quantities of Heat Heavy oil (California) Inject steam into oil reserve to increase temperature so oil flows Heat input is 25 to 40% of the energy content of the recovered oil Oil Sands: Steam-Assisted Gravity Drain (Alberta, Canada) Inject steam into oil sands to break oil-water-sand mixture Heat input up to 20% of the energy value of the oil Shale oil (U.S., Europe, Mideast) Heat rock to >350 C to thermally crack oil shale Recover light oil and gases Carbon residue remains sequestered underground Need high temperatures to heat rock in a reasonable amount of time Heat input ~35% of energy value of recovered oil and gases 51

52 Nuclear Heating Option For Liquid Fuels Recovery Gases (Propane, etc.) Avoid burning oil and gas for oil and gas recovery Cool Reduced greenhouse gases Heater Geology determines peak Crude Condense Oil temperature Gasoline and reactor type Light Oil Distillate LWRs for many applications HTR for oil Cool shales Oil Peak-Electricity Option Condense Heat at night for oil recovery; slow Distillate thermal response (weeks) Petrocoke Electricity during day Resid Heater Well Heat Wave Confining Strata Heavy Oil Tar Sands Shale Oil Coal Production Well Light Oil 52

53 53 Inputs For Liquid Fuels Production Carbon: Fossil fuel (CH x ) Biomass (CHOH) Atmosphere (CO 2 ) Energy: Fossil fuel Biomass Nuclear Products: Ethanol Biofuels Diesel Hydrogen Fossil Fuel Biomass Nuclear (Water) Feedstock Conversion Process Can Avoid Greenhouse Gas Releases to Atmosphere If Carbon, Energy, and Hydrogen from Non-Fossil Sources

54 Difference Between Feedstock and Fuel Determines Energy Inputs 54 Products: Gasoline and Diesel: ~CH 2 Feedstocks determine energy inputs Light crude oil: ~CH 2 Biomass: ~ CH 2 O Coal: ~ CH Atmospheric carbon dioxide: CO 2 Need to add hydrogen in many cases Directly as Hydrogen Indirectly as water and heat

55 55 Biomass Fuels: A Potentially Low- Greenhouse-Gas Liquid-Fuel Option Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Energy Fossil Biomass Nuclear Biomass Liquid Fuels C x H y + (X + y 4 )O 2 CO 2 + ( y 2 )H 2O Fuel Factory Cars, Trucks, and Planes

56 Energy Value (10 6 barrels of diesel fuel equivalent per day) U.S. Biomass Fuels Yield Depends On the Bio-Refinery Energy Source Biomass Energy to Operate Bio-refinery 12.4 U.S. Transport Fuel Demand Burn Biomass Convert to Ethanol Convert to Diesel Fuel with Outside Hydrogen and Heat Global Situation is Similar: If Biofuels to Replace Oil, Need an External Biorefinery Energy Source

57 Future Cellulosic Liquid-Fuel Options Biomass As Energy Source Nuclear as Energy Source Biomass 58 Cellulose (65-85% Biomass) Lignin (15-35% Biomass) Steam Hydrogen (small quantities) Steam Ethanol Plant Steam Plant Lignin Plant Nuclear Reactor Ethanol Plant Heat Electricity Ethanol Biomass Nuclear Biomass Gasoline/ Diesel 50% Increase Liquid Fuel/Unit Biomass Ethanol

58 59 Biomass Liquid Fuel Futures Biomass as feedstock and biorefinery energy source Supplemental source of liquid fuels Nuclear-biomass fuels production Biomass as carbon feedstock Nuclear energy for biorefinery heat and hydrogen (Some nuclear heat to biomass fuels options are now economic) Can potentially replace oil* *Assumes other technologies bend over growing oil demand curve (plug-in hybrids, etc.)

59 60 Conclusions Nuclear may need to supply 50 to 75% of the world energy needs if we are to meet low-carbon goals and get off oil Gigawatt-year storage is a requirement for a lowcarbon future most storage options need nuclear Differences in energy sources creates the potential for synergistic options Nuclear: Large-scale steady-state build-anywhere heat source Wind and Solar: Mid-scale variable regional electricity sources Biomass: Limited carbon resource Electricity and fuels markets will be coupled

60 Hydrogen Production Heat Questions? Heat Cap Rock Oil Permeable Rock Heat 61 H 2 Nuclear Heat Storage Biofuels Renewables H 2 Store Electricity Long-Distance H 2 Pipeline Long-Distance Export Electricity (Base Load) Local Electricity (Variable)

61 62 ABSTRACT Alternative Nuclear Energy Futures Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen In the next 50 years the world energy system may see the largest change since the beginning of the industrial revolution as we switch from a fossil to a nuclearrenewable energy system. The drivers are climate change and oil dependency. These drivers indicate the need to consider nuclear energy in a broader role including using nuclear energy for (1) variable daily, weekly, and seasonal electricity production by coupling base-load nuclear reactors to gigawatt-year energy storage systems, (2) liquid fuels production in nuclear biomass and nuclear carbon-dioxide refineries, and (3) hydrogen production to support fuels and materials production. This would be a transformational change. First, nuclear energy may become an enabling technology for the large-scale use of renewables. Second, electricity and liquid fuels production would be a tightly coupled energy system. Such a future would require successful development of multiple nuclearuser technologies such as gigawatt-year heat storage, high-temperature electrolysis for hydrogen production, and hydrocracking of lignin.

62 63 Biography: Charles Forsberg Dr. Charles Forsberg is the Executive Director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Nuclear Fuel Cycle Study. Before joining MIT, he was a Corporate Fellow at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. He is a Fellow of the American Nuclear Society, a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and recipient of the 2005 Robert E. Wilson Award from the American Institute of Chemical Engineers for outstanding chemical engineering contributions to nuclear energy, including his work in hydrogen production and nuclear-renewable energy futures. He received the American Nuclear Society special award for innovative nuclear reactor design. Dr. Forsberg earned his bachelor's degree in chemical engineering from the University of Minnesota and his doctorate in Nuclear Engineering from MIT. He has been awarded 11 patents and has published over 200 papers.

63 References C. W. Forsberg, Sustainability by Combining Nuclear, Fossil, and Renewable Energy Sources, Progress in Nuclear Energy, 51, (2009) 2. J. C. Conklin and C. W. Forsberg, Base-Load and Peak Electricity from a Combined Nuclear Heat and Fossil Combined- Cycle Plant, Global 2007, American Nuclear Society, Boise, Idaho, September 9-13, C. W. Forsberg, Meeting U.S. Liquid Transport Fuel Needs with a Nuclear Hydrogen Biomass System, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 34 (9), , (May 2009) 4. C. Forsberg and M. Kazimi, Nuclear Hydrogen Using High-Temperature Electrolysis and Light-Water Reactors for Peak Electricity Production, 4th Nuclear Energy Agency Information Exchange Meeting on Nuclear Production of Hydrogen, Oak Brook, Illinois, April 10-16, C. W. Forsberg, Nuclear Energy for a Low-Carbon-Dioxide-Emission Transportation System with Liquid Fuels, Nuclear Technology, 164, December C. W. Forsberg, Use of High-Temperature Heat in Refineries, Underground Refining, and Bio-Refineries for Liquid-Fuels Production, HTR , 4th International Topical Meeting on High-Temperature Reactor Technology, American Society of Mechanical Engineers; September 28-October 1, 2008;Washington D.C. 7. C. W. Forsberg, Economics of Meeting Peak Electricity Demand Using Hydrogen and Oxygen from Base-Load Nuclear or Off-Peak Electricity, Nuclear Technology, 166, April I. Oloyede and C. Forsberg, Implications of Gigawatt-Year Electricity Storage Systems on Future Baseload Nuclear Electricity Demand, Paper 10117, Proc. International Congress on Advanced Nuclear Power Plants, San Diego, June Y. H. Lee, C. Forsberg, M. Driscoll, and B. Sapiie, Options for Nuclear-Geothermal Gigawatt-Year Peak Electricity Storage Systems, Paper 10212, Proc. International Congress on Advanced Nuclear Power Plants, San Diego, June G. Haratyk and C. Forsberg, Integrating Nuclear and Renewables for Hydrogen and Electricity Production, Paper 1082, Second International Meeting on the Safety and Technology of Nuclear Hydrogen Production, Control, and Management, Embedded American Nuclear Society Topical, San Diego, June C. Forsberg, Alternative Nuclear Energy Futures: Peak Electricity, Liquid Fuels, and Hydrogen, Paper 10076, Second International Meeting on the Safety and Technology of Nuclear Hydrogen Production, Control, and Management, Embedded American Nuclear Society Topical, San Diego, June C. Forsberg, Nuclear Power: Energy to Produce Liquid Fuels and Chemical, Chemical Engineering Progress (July 2010)