SOLAR POWER VERSUS NUCLEAR POWER-OPTIONS OPTIONS FOR THE ARAB WORLD

Transcription

1 THE TRAGEDY OF ENERGY POLICY IN THE ARAB REGION SOLAR POWER VERSUS NUCLEAR POWER-OPTIONS OPTIONS FOR THE ARAB WORLD By Darwish Al Gobaisi, Omran Sultan M. Al Halami, Bushara M., Ali El Nashar, Woldai A. and Samir Damak International Center for Water and Energy Systems (ICWES) Abu Dhabi - UAE International Conference on Renewable and Alternative Sources of Energy, Beirut, November 25-26, 26, 2010

2 Contents Introduction What Is Sustainable Development? Energy for Sustainable Development Solar Energy Resources versus Fossil Fuel Reserves Solar Energy Potential in the Arab World Sun Is the Source of Renewable Energy and the Oceans Solar Energy for Desalination in the Arab World Benefits of Utilizing Solar Energy Solar Collector Systems Uranium Availability and Production Statistics Nuclear Research in the Arab Region Nuclear Power Plants- Track Record and Present Status Environmental Impact of Nuclear Energy Nuclear Disasters Decommissioning Of Nuclear Facilities Conclusion

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4 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT is defined as development that meets the present needs and goals of the population without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs. involves social and economic development, environmental conservation.

5 Complex interactions among the various subsystems.

6 Major components of the Earth System

7 ENERGY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Sustainable Energy: energy systems, technologies, and resources that are not only capable of supporting long-term economic and social development needs. But also compatible with (1) preserving the underlying integrity of essential natural systems, including averting catastrophic climate change; (2) extending basic energy services to the more than 2 billion people worldwide who currently lack access to modern forms of energy and energy products such as desalinated water; and (3) reducing the security risks and potential for geopolitical conflict that could otherwise arise from an escalating competition for unevenly distributed fossil fuel resources.

8 Sustainability Limits (Herman Daly) The rates of use of renewable resources should not exceed their rates of regeneration The rates of use of non-regenerable resources should not exceed the rates at which renewable substitutes are developed The rates of pollution emissions should not exceed the assimilated capacity of the environment. Furthermore it should not encroach into and damage the environments for future generations by long life contaminants such as radioactive nuclear waste. Using natural resources no faster than they can regenerate themselves and releasing pollutants to no greater extent than natural resources can assimilate them (Angela Merkel,Germany Chancellor )

9 Transforming the Global Energy Mix: the exemplary path to 2005/2100; Source: WBGU, 2003

10 SOLAR ENERGY RESOURCES VERSUS FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES Annual solar energy potentials of the world deserts Desert size according to UNEP = 36 Million km² Annually received energy in deserts world wide = 80 Million TWh 10,000 Billion ( Giga( Giga ) ) ton coal 50,000 Billion barrels of oil equivalent 300,000 Exa (10 18 ) Joules 1 barrel = 1600 kwh

11 Fossil energy sources like coal, oil and gas can be a useful complement to the renewable energy mix, being stored forms of energy that can easily be used for balancing power and for grid stabilization.

12 Development of energy demand as in the A1T-450 scenario, but reduced by a stronger energy efficiency enhancement. This path assumes from 2040 onwards a per cent annual increase in energy productivity, compared to the historical figure of 1 per cent annually. Source:.. Gerhard Knies and WBGU

13 Electric Energy Generated in Arab Countries (Gigawatt( Hour) Source: OAPEC 2007 Arab Region, Total Energy Requirement (expected 2015) =930 TWh

14 SOLAR ENERGY POTENTIAL IN THE ARAB WORLD The 22 Arab World Countries (AWC) with a total surface area of 14 million km 2 (> 1/3 of the total world deserts) and average radiation potential of 2.35 TWh/km 2 /year. Arab Region total potential is equivalent to 4.3 million TWh/year (assuming efficiency of conversion about 15%) So, how much solar energy falls on the Arab land, and is there enough land for large-scale solar generation?

15 SOLAR ENERGY POTENTIAL IN THE ARAB WORLD (Continued)

16 SOLAR ENERGY POTENTIAL IN THE ARAB WORLD (Continued) Solar radiation on deserts : Most abundant and widely accessible, but least tapped form of energy on earth. The Arab land is 14 Million km² of which 87% is desert (12.18( Million km²) The solar energy resource in the Arab region can supply not only the energy needs of the Arab people but also meet global energy needs. In other words: Any conceivable global demand for energy, today or in future, could be met from solar energy in deserts.

17 CO 2 emissions/ MWhe in tons Solar Thermal Power Plants: Gas Fired Combined Cycle Power Plants: Steam /Coal Fired Power Plants: 0.9 Example: A 50MW solar thermal plant (with 1km 2 collector) at 80% of average capacity over one year of operation will cause only about tons of CO 2 emissions while, a typical gas fired combined cycle plant will cause of CO 2 emissions. Coal fired power plant will tons of CO cause tons of cause of CO 2 emissions. Solar alternative implies a huge reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

18 Pan Arab Grid Arab Countries have initiated several bilateral and sub-regional efforts to connect the Pan-Arab electrical networks together into one grid forming the integrated Arab Electrical System. The Pan-Arab Grid has been divided into four possible groups: Maghreb Region (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and Libya) EJLIS (Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria) GCC Countries and the Yemen Other (Sudan, Djibouti, Mauritania the Comoros Islands)

19 SUN IS THE SOURCE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND THE OCEANS are an Alternative Water Resource Just as the sun is an alternative source of energy to meet future demands, the oceans are an alternative water resource. However, extraction of fresh water from the oceans requires significant development of desalination infrastructure. Desalination is very energy-intensive, and sustainable energy systems urgently need to be developed. The most arid lands are also those blessed with abundant solar energy and this needs to be exploited for large-scale production of freshwater from the oceans.

20 SOLAR ENERGY FOR DESALINATION IN THE ARAB WORLD Desalination has already made a major contribution to quality of life in the most arid regions of the world, particularly the Arab region. Without desalination, many of these regions would have remained uninhabited.

21 SOLAR ENERGY FOR DESALINATION IN THE ARAB WORLD continued) (continued The total installed capacity of desalinated water systems in the world in 2006 was about was about 37 million m 3 /d or 8140 million gallons per day (Mgal/d), ), which is expected to increase drastically in the next decades. The dramatic increase in desalinated water supply will create a series of problems, the most significant of which are those related to energy consumption. It has been estimated that production of estimated that production of 25 million m 3 /d requires about 285 million barrels of oil per year

22 SOLAR ENERGY FOR DESALINATION IN THE ARAB WORLD continued) (continued Can we afford to burn oil on the scale needed to provide everyone with fresh water? The Arab world (AW), including many other arid regions of the world, are blessed with a non-polluting resource of energy and is renewable, namely Solar Energy and other resources.

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25 SOLAR ENERGY FOR DESALINATION IN THE ARAB WORLD continued) (continued

26 SOLAR ENERGY FOR DESALINATION IN THE ARAB WORLD continued) (continued

27 BENEFITS OF SOLAR ENERGY reliable and clean source of primary energy supply, abundantly available, offers future energy security displaces fossil fuels generates no green house gas emissions or pollution of any other kind; hence, no global warming, no climate change helps meeting Kyoto Protocol Guidelines poses no radiation risks protects against fuel price volatility solar power plants can be built in deserts which may have few other uses lead time for building solar power plants is short can deliver power on demand through its features of allowing operation flexibility with other fuels and thermal storage capability CSP power plants can be coupled with desalination plants offers flexibility in building generation capacities (several kw to several 100 MW) some of the solar power plant technologies require far less amount of utility water than conventional power plants

28 SOLAR COLLECTOR SYSTEMS These systems can be classified as follows: 1. Concentrating a) Thermal Parabolic Troughs Parabolic Dish Power Tower b) Photovoltaic (CPV) Systems 2. Non-Concentrating Flat Plate Collectors Photovoltaic (PV) Panels

29 SOLAR COLLECTOR SYSTEMS (continued) Performance of the four CSP systems

30 SOLAR COLLECTOR SYSTEMS (continued) Solar cell conversion efficiency Typical: 12-16%, 16%, Best: 36%, Source: NREL

31 SOLAR COLLECTOR SYSTEMS (continued) Levelized Energy Costs for Solar Energy Utilization Systems

32 SOLAR COLLECTOR SYSTEMS (continued) Solar power is the source of nearly all our energy. New technologies allow to harness it with growing efficiency. Thermal and photovoltaic solar panels have become a symbol of renewable energy and a greener future unfortunately, they still represent less than 0.1 percent of global energy production. But growth is tremendous. Solar capacity in Germany, the world s s leading PV nation, will double in 2010 from 10GW to 20 GW, estimates the Swiss bank UBS. And despite Germany s s moderate climate, these solar panels and wind energy do already produce massive amounts of electricity. Falling prices have been one reason for this explosive growth. Chinese companies have entered the solar panel market and gained a market share of more than 50 percent.

33 SOLAR COLLECTOR SYSTEMS (continued) PV pioneers are not just competing with each other, but also with concentrated solar power (CSP), also called solar thermal power, which reflects sunlight to heat liquids in tubes or atop towers to create steam. CSP boasts economies of scale. The largest solar power plants in the world,, and the largest ones planned, are CSP plants. And the more mirrors reflect sunlight, the more steam is available for the electric turbine. On the other hand, PV can more easily be easily integrated into existing grids and needs little planning time,, even in urban centers.

34 SOLAR COLLECTOR SYSTEMS (continued) The World s s largest Solar Power Plant will be built in Arizona in 2011

35 URANIUM AVAILABILITY AND PRODUCTION STATISTICS Resources Reasonably Assured Resources plus Inferred Resources, at US$ 130/kg U, Source: : NEA & IAEA, 2006

36 URANIUM AVAILABILITY AND PRODUCTION STATISTICS (continued) Global annual uranium production and reactor requirements, Source: adapted from NEA/IAEA, 2006

37 NUCLEAR RESEARCH IN THE ARAB REGION The Arab World lacks all these technologies and has no experts to fill the role of the regulatory body. Nuclear activities in some Arab countries:

38 NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS- TRACK RECORD AND PRESENT STATUS Capital Costs Non-fuel Operation and Maintenance cost Nuclear clean-up Nuclear Power- Facts vs. Illusion a) Nuclear Power is dangerous, safety is a myth. b) Nuclear power is a deadly legacy for our children c) Nuclear power is financially highly disadvantageous d) Nuclear power is no solution to climate change e) Nuclear weapons are the flip side of nuclear power f) Nuclear power dependent on limited & dirty resources g) Nuclear power is classified as an unpredictable atomic bomb

39 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF NUCLEAR ENERGY Radioactive Wastes Costs of Nuclear Waste Disposal (The Flawed Economics of Nuclear Power)

40 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF NUCLEAR ENERGY Nuclear energy can pose immense hazards to humans beings and their environments, due to the production of radioactive waste and the risks of nuclear accidents European countries have a history of public debate around the nuclear power industry, which in part has led to the signing of the Aarhus Convention, in June 1998, giving citizens the right to access information and participate in government decision-making on matters related to the environment. Nuclear energy debates usually revolve around a fundamental question: whether or not to use nuclear plants for the production of electricity. The governments of Australia and Denmark have all-together rejected this notion, due to the possible dangers caused by the nuclear industry. In a 1978 referendum, Austrians voted against the building of nuclear stations to produce electricity, after months of demonstrations and a long battle against a well-funded pro-nuclear lobby. The Swedes followed suit two years later, and the Italians in 1987.

41 NUCLEAR DISASTERS Three Mile Island Chernobyl

42 DECOMMISSIONING OF NUCLEAR FACILITIES The plant is dismantled soon after operation ceases and the site is restored or adapted for reuse. Fuel is discharged to a storage facility and non-radioactive parts of the plant are dismantled but the radioactive parts are mothballed for years or even longer before dismantling.

43 DECOMMISSIONING OF NUCLEAR FACILITIES (Continue) In order to decommission a nuclear power plant, three prerequisites must be satisfied: Well trained personnel with appropriate technical skills A licensed storage or disposal facility to accommodate all decommissioning wastes A regulatory basis for implementing a given decommissioning project

44 CONCLUSIONS Renewable energy is inexhaustible and abundant. Renewable energy and in particular solar energy, is going to be the primary driver of our modern civilization and may provide fresh water from desalination without harming our earth life- support systems. The nuclear industry is in near-terminal decline world-wide, wide, following its failure to establish itself as a clean, cheap, safe or reliable energy source. Electricity production is a major source of CO 2

45 CONCLUSIONS (continued) CONCLUSIONS The cost of nuclear activity at all levels has exceeded those early predictions. Reliable figures on nuclear generating costs are difficult to obtain. Since the oil crisis of the 1970s, several renewable energy forms of electrical power (solar, wind, hydroelectric, photovoltaic, land-fill gas and biomass) generation have emerged, and of these a handful are now considered mature and bankable.

46 CONCLUSIONS (continued) The true cost of any power source must include external costs which do not appear on the operators balance sheets and are therefore hidden.

47 CONCLUSIONS (continued) CONCLUSIONS Nuclear energy in comparison with clean renewable energy is uneconomical, hazardous and not considered to be part of clean development mechanism (CDM) Radioactive Waste: The Problem with No Solution Nuclear Accidents

48 Nuclear power is risky, dirty and inefficient. No workable solution for disposing of nuclear waste, an accidental meltdown of a nuclear core is within the realm of possibilities, the uranium deposits are limited and the cost of producing electricity through a controlled nuclear reaction is competitive only because of the fuel subsidies and the limits on liability to make insurance affordable. Then there is the question of huge capitalization and the prohibitive price of decommissioning. Solar and other renewable energy sources that are abundant in the Arab region should be considered for power generation and desalination along with limited use of fossil fuel to complement the renewable energy mix.

49 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is crucial to the Arab countries due to its direct contribution to the sustainable development. CDM Development projects have been pursued in some Arab countries in cooperation with industrialized countries. There is a need to ensure equitable geographical distribution for CDM projects among all UN regions. There is also a need to enhance capacity building for CDM in the region. By using solar energy and other renewable energy carbon emissions can be reduced to values that are compatible with the goal of stabilizing the CO2 content of the atmosphere at 450 parts per million that is considered necessary by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in order to keep global warming in a range of 1.5 to 3.9 C C (IPCC 2001).

50 THANK YOU