What is the NHP? Presented by. Helen Reeves, British Geological Survey Helen Balmforth, Health and Safety Laboratory Iain Lisk, UK Met Office

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1 What is the NHP? Presented by Helen Reeves, British Geological Survey Helen Balmforth, Health and Safety Laboratory Iain Lisk, UK Met Office

2 Events that started NHP 2007 Floods Cost of insured losses 3.25Bn The Environment Agency and the Met Office should work together, through a joint centre, to improve their technical capability to forecast, model and warn against all sources of flooding. Sir Michael Pitt

UK Government interest in hazards We need to ensure

available to help in the management of emergencies

opportunity to build a platform that puts effective

helping government react quickly to major

4 UK Government interest in hazards We need to ensure that a single source of real-time imaging is available to help in the management of emergencies in the future I see this as an extremely important opportunity to build a platform that puts effective data analysis and presentation at the centre of helping government react quickly to major disruptive events Sir Mark Walport, February 2013 NERC All rights reserved

6 Natural Hazard Partnership Start 1 st December 2011 Strategic direction of NHP agreed. December 2011 MoU signed by 10 public sector chief executives. Agreed that the NHP is focussed on improving delivery of natural hazard information and advice by public sector bodies. NHP to be Led by the NHP Steering Group and delivered through four working groups. Hazard Impact Modelling Group (HIM Group) Scientific Strategy Group Communications & Outreach Group. Hazard Advice & Services Group

7 Natural Hazard Partnership Projects What can we do in partnership to work more efficiently, deliver new capabilities, products & services? Over 40 ideas identified 4 selected to work on between 2012 to Daily Hazard Assessment 2. Prepared Scientific Advice 3. Contribute to National Risk Assessment 4. Hazard Impact Modelling strategy & initial studies

8 Multi Hazard Strategic Daily Assessment Objectives: Provide an at a glance All Hazards summary Issue daily at 2pm to Partners only To cover the following hazards with contributions from all partners: Flood Weather Volcanic Ash Space weather Wildfires Geological hazards

all partners: Drought Snow/Ice Wildfire Wind Inland flooding Geohazards http://www.

9 Objectives: Prepared Scientific Advice The provision of pre-prepared scientific advice packs for all emergency responders To cover the following hazards with contributions from all partners: Drought Snow/Ice Wildfire Wind Inland flooding Geohazards

10 Identification of receptors people, property, infrastructure Hazard Impact Model Adding the Impact who and what is effected Estimation of vulnerability Modelling of Impact HIM Members -

11 What we had in 2011: the start Wind hazard Rainfall Landslide susceptibility Flooding National Population Database

Hazard Impact Model Hazard http://www.metoffice.gov.

12 Hazard Impact Model Hazard Development of hazard footprints for three priority hazards as part of individual work packages Surface Water Flooding Work Package, CEH Landslides Work Package, BGS Wind Work Package, MetOffice

Hazard Impact Model - Vulnerability & Impact Risk (of Impact) = Hazard x Vulnerability (vulnerability includes exposure) Linking vulnerability and impact information with hazards Vulnerability

13 Hazard Impact Model - Vulnerability & Impact Risk (of Impact) = Hazard x Vulnerability (vulnerability includes exposure) Linking vulnerability and impact information with hazards Vulnerability Research - developing Impact Framework Development of prototype HIM proof of concept 1) SWF HIM being developed by HSL and CEH for FFC 2) Vehicle Overturning HIM being developed by MO HSL developing an Impact Library concept

- Currently case study approach - Research report proposing methodology for operational SWF HIM delivered to FFC High Winds -

14 Proof of Concept HIM SWF - CEH hazard footprint, HSL impact information - PoC HIM developed, undergoing testing & initial verification. - Currently case study approach - Research report proposing methodology for operational SWF HIM delivered to FFC High Winds - Vehicle Overturning HIM being trialled in house at MO for NSWWS - Models for Bridges and Camp sites being developed Landslides - Hazard definition ongoing - Development of landslides domains - Once these defined domain thresholds will be developed

Surface Water Flooding (SWF) Demand for more robust, accurate

Flooding (SWF) and its impacts at local, regional and national

Hazard Impact Model with the Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL)

SWF approach is based on dynamic gridded surface runoff

rainfall forecasts (MO) National Population Database (HSL) Other

impact maps and regional summaries Ensemble case study

late 2015 feed into FGS Hazard Footprint Based on G2G surface

15 Surface Water Flooding (SWF) Demand for more robust, accurate and timely forecast and alert information on Surface Water Flooding (SWF) and its impacts at local, regional and national scales Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) is leading the SWF Hazard Impact Model with the Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) providing expertise on impact assessments. SWF approach is based on dynamic gridded surface runoff estimates from the Grid-to-Grid model used by FFC Ensemble rainfall forecasts (MO) National Population Database (HSL) Other impact datasets Methodologies for generating dynamic hazard & impact maps and regional summaries Ensemble case study verification ongoing Prototype operational trial planned for late 2015 feed into FGS Hazard Footprint Based on G2G surface runoff National Receptor Dataset (EA) Impact Library (HSL) Hazard Impact Outputs Updated Flood Map for Surface Water UFMfSW (EA)

HIM - Presentation of initial collaborative SWF case study work at ICFR conference

16 SWF Impacts & vulnerability Delivery of: Proof of concept SWF HIM for testing & initial verification work Research report proposing methodology for operational SWF HIM - Presentation of initial collaborative SWF case study work at ICFR conference (by CEH) & at FRIEND-Water Conference (by FFC) Flood Impact on Population with vulnerability

17 Prototype SWF Hazard Impact Model Proof of concept CEH Grid to Grid (G2G) model

18 Adding the Impact Flood Impact on Population with vulnerability

Population Two basic scenarios Night time = Residential night time + Care homes + Hospitals + Prisons Day time = Residential day time term-time + Care homes + Hospitals + Schools + Prisons +

19 Population Two basic scenarios Night time = Residential night time + Care homes + Hospitals + Prisons Day time = Residential day time term-time + Care homes + Hospitals + Schools + Prisons + Workplaces Dependent on time of day: Day: Night: other times NPD populations resampled to 1km grid Hazard x Population = Exposure (no. of people in hazard area) Vulnerable Populations - Identify population groups who might be more at risk Criteria used: - Over 75, or - Suffering a long-term limiting illness Hospitals, Care homes, School pupils, Residential population proportion

Reporting of outputs By Region - Unitary Authorities in case study area Time / Unitary Authority Selby East Riding of Yorkshire York Doncaster Ryedale 1200..... 1300..... 1400 3740.... 1500.. 68215.

20 Reporting of outputs By Region - Unitary Authorities in case study area Time / Unitary Authority Selby East Riding of Yorkshire York Doncaster Ryedale Note. 0 indicates the Local Authority has flooding, but no population expected.. indicates that no hazard was identified in the Local Authority.

21 Comparison with event - verification Comparison with reports from media and other source

22 SWF reporting outputs

23 High Wind Impacts Proof of concept - Vehicle Overturning (VOT) Model Probabilistic model uses MOGREPS-UK ensembles: runs in real-time used for NSWWS Prototype Models Bridges and Camping Ongoing work - Wind Impacts on Buildings Improve Wind Hazard Modelling Verification of Hazard Impact Model

24 Landslides

Landslide (thresholds) Use thresholds and PBMs to develop higher granularity in the NHP forecast Landslide domains + hourly weather/thresholds

25 Landslide (thresholds) Use thresholds and PBMs to develop higher granularity in the NHP forecast Landslide domains + hourly weather/thresholds + soil model + GIS data layers = NHP granular forecast = Initial discussions regarding development of impacts for landslides HIM with HSL

26 HIM Production System How & to whom will be HIM be delivered? Agreement of broad architecture: Autumn 2013 Prototype HIM (VoT) running since Mid-December 2013 Successful visualisation of model outputs via desktop GIS, Web page and specialised forecaster software. Extending this to include the SWF HIM during the next year End users Research users Expert operational users Web services delivered via internal (MO) & external networks Operational Production System Modelling / analysis organised into a series of Modules with standardised outputs. Modules comply to a common Framework - a set of standards covering conceptualisation of hazard impact, output data formats, archiving protocols and visual design.

hazards and for linked and compounding hazards Increased natural hazard warning lead times with improved assessments of

27 NHP Benefits to the UK Efficiency and effectiveness - One stop shop for natural hazards advice and interagency natural hazard science to services coordination Better informed mitigation and adaptation strategies for individual natural hazards and for linked and compounding hazards Increased natural hazard warning lead times with improved assessments of likelihood and predicted impact, location, type and severity Increased natural hazard data and visualisation interoperability.

28 NHP The UK s trusted voice for coordinated natural hazard advice

29 NHP Science to services Available through Hazard Manager Available at

UK Resilience SAGE UK Government and agencies UK Policy for emergency response 4 main actions 1. Risk assessment 2. Preparation and planning 3. Response and recovery 4.

30 UK Resilience SAGE UK Government and agencies UK Policy for emergency response 4 main actions 1. Risk assessment 2. Preparation and planning 3. Response and recovery 4. Building a resilient society Local Resilience Forum Category 1 responders Local public services Emergency services NHS Category 2 responders Environment Agency Highways Agency Public utilities NERC All rights reserved

Scientific advice on the NRA and SAGE/COBRA Move

31 Natural Hazard Partnership Joint working and synergies Daily UK natural hazards assessment Scientific advice on the NRA and SAGE/COBRA Move towards forecasting likely common impacts

32 NHP Challenges Recognition and visibility Migration to GOV.UK? Fully operational multi-hazard services Impact-based assessment infrastructure Private sector engagement Long-term funding

Development of an operational, riskbased approach to surface water flood forecasting. Presenter: Graeme Boyce

Development of an operational, riskbased approach to surface water flood forecasting Presenter: Graeme Boyce Surface Water Flooding (SWF) SWF major hazard in UK: ~4 million properties at risk Summer 2007