28th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition

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1 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF GLOBAL INSTALLED PHOTOVOLTAIC CAPACITY AND IDENTIFICATION OF HIDDEN GROWTH MARKETS Ch. Werner 1,2,3, Ch. Breyer 4, A. Gerlach 1 1 Hanwha Q CELLS GmbH, Sonnenallee 17-21, Bitterfeld-Wolfen OT Thalheim, Germany 2 now with: Hanergy Holding Group, Potsdamer Platz 10, Berlin, Germany, chris.werner@hanergy.de 3 FernUniversität in Hagen, Universitätsstr. 11, Hagen, Germany 4 Reiner Lemoine Institut ggmbh, Ostendstraße 25, Berlin, Germany, christian.breyer@rl-institut.de ABSTRACT The installed capacity of photovoltaic (PV) is rising steadily. Most PV is installed in highly electrified countries as on-grid systems. Further there are reams of small off-grid systems in rural areas of developing countries. Due to this, reliable installation rates for PV are available only for a small number of countries. For the end of 2012 EPIA reports 102,156 MWp of installed PV capacity giving data for 50 countries, whereas 2,098 MWp are not allocatable to specific countries. IEA-PVPS provides data for 89,500 MWp installed in 23 countries. This Paper gives an overview on installed PV for all countries in the world, being predicated on the examination of public accessible data. Furthermore, an analysis on development of cumulative PV capacities in recent years is given. Resulting from this evaluation, PV installations are localized in 190 countries claiming 98,988 MWp. Keywords PV Markets, Installed Capacity, PV Installation, Market Growth 1 EXAMINATION METHOD European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) provides 2,098 MWp estimated, which is commonly named as Rest-of-World (RoW) countries. However, for these RoW countries no reliable estimation of installed PV is available, because a considerable part is represented by off-grid systems, with a lack in public authority monitoring, and respective markets are too small for international monitoring. To enhance a reliable valuation of developing countries photovoltaic markets, the examination of several sources is necessary ensuring a credible estimation. Basic source is an international customs database, monitored by the Market Analysis and Research section of the International Trade Centre, which is an agency of UN s World Trade Organization. This database contains the customs data of all countries worldwide since the year 2000, receiving the data from the particular national customs authorities. The database provides the opportunity to evaluate the total value of imported and exported products for each country per year. Furthermore, a possibility of evaluating bilateral trades for a specific product is given. Products are classified in several specific product numbers, so-called HS Codes, being obligated by more than 200 countries, customs and economic unions, representing more than 98% of world s trade [1]. HS Code group represents photosensitive semiconductors devices, photovoltaic cells and light emitting diodes. More specific descriptions with detailed determination in codes between light emitting diodes and PV are available for approximately 95% of the data. Otherwise an experienced ratio of 80% PV and 20% light emitting diodes is used then. Surprisingly, a large number of developing countries customs agencies have reported detailed data. It is valid that: imports A from B = exports B to A. Data have been assigned for 190 countries in a period of 2000 until Basis of the calculation of PV capacities per country is the following assumption: import A exports A + production A = market A. The production volumes refer to the publications of the magazine Photon on the topic of production output [2]. At this attention is paid to the fact that approximately 25% of annual productions are installed in the following year. Since data are including monetary value of the products, a conversion to PV capacities is necessary. For this purpose a reliable estimation of PV prices per Wp for every country is needed. These price data refer to a worldwide annual average PV module price per Wp [3, 4]. Since prices depend on countries locations and market sizes, there is a great ratio of diverging. Therefore all countries are classified in five main groups with one of them having two subgroups, each representing a group of countries that are nearly comparable in market size and economic conditions. World s average price is multiplied with a factor quoting the ratio of countries price for each of these groups. The ratio is based on experiences and statements of several countries experts that have been contacted [5-14] and has been validated in previous publications [15, 16]. Since the given world s average annual PV prices are selling prices of modules producers, a factor of 10% is added considering distributor margins, shipping, etc. Therewith, prices of the year 2012 are diverging between 1.09 USD/Wp for advanced PV market countries and 2.66 USD/Wp for small PV applications in African and Asian low-income countries as it can be seen in Table 1. To lower the probability of error, further sources with installation rates estimated by EPIA, International Energy Agency Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA- PVPS), journal du photovoltaique, the European Commision and Hanwha Q CELLS market research are used [17-22]. 4733

2 [$/Wp] year average world price: 100% countries >100MW/y 90% countries >10MW/y 110% countries >5MW/y 150% countries <5MW/y 180% countries <1MW/y 200% Africa & Asia 220% Europe & NA & LA 190% Table 1: PV price for conversion of customs values into PV [3, 4]. Abbreviations stand for North America (NA) and Latin America (LA). Besides, all sources are weighted in a certain order. For countries that have own cell or module production, the arithmetic mean of all sources except customs data is taken for estimation of installation rates, due to production margins and local PV value chain structures influencing the reliability of the customs database. In case of countries having no production, the average of all sources is used. Due to statistical impacts of additional databases, it is seldom possible that estimated installed PV capacities by end of 2012 can be less than those estimated by end of previous years. 92% of worlds PV installations. Furthermore, there are 17 additional countries claiming more than 100 MWp per country (Rep. Korea, Bulgaria, Canada, Slovakia, Thailand, Austria, Ukraine, Switzerland, Denmark, Netherlands, Israel, Portugal, Slovenia, Taiwan, South Africa, United Arab Emirates, Russia). However, several developing countries show significant installed PV base, in particular Bangladesh (84 MWp), Peru (49 MWp), Indonesia (34 MWp), Nigeria (29 MWp), Kenya (18 MWp), Philippines (16 MWp) and many more. In these countries PV installations are mainly realized as off-grid systems, i.e. 5 MWp solar home systems with an average size of 50 Wp represent a solar power solution for 100,000 families [23]. 2 OVERVIEW ON PV INSTALLATIONS 2012 Within the use of this examination, world s total installed PV capacity is estimated to be up to 98,988 MWp in the end of It is expected that there are further 487 MWp that have been installed before PV installations are able to be found in almost all countries. Appendix Table 1 includes the results for PV installation rates for all countries in the world by end of Figure 2: Installed PV capacity per world region by end of Figure 1: Total installed PV capacity per country by end of As it can be seen in Figure 1 Germany is dominating the market with a share of nearly 33% of total global installed PV. 13 markets claim more than one GWp of PV capacity by end of Those 13 biggest markets, Germany (32,260 MWp), Italy (16,300 MWp), United States (7,400 MWp), Japan (7,230 MWp), China (6,890 MWp), Spain (4,790 MWp), France (3,390 MWp), Belgium (2,620 MWp), Australia (2,380 MWp), Czech Republic (2,060 MWp), United Kingdom (1,810 MWp), Greece (1,530 MWp) and India (1,460 MWp) capture Figure 2 points the cumulative installed PV capacity until end of 2012 for each region of the world. Europe shows the highest PV installation rates, with 69,140 MWp claiming more than 70% of world s PV. Even without the dominating German market, Europe would be in the lead. East Asian and North American markets represent 8,410 MWp and 8,280 MWp respectively. Further there are three regions having an installed PV base more than one GWp per region (China, Australia and Oceania, India). Rest-of-Asia (720 MWp), former Soviet Union (550 MWp), MENA (500 MW), Africa (317 MWp), Latin American (212 MWp) and Central American (104 MWp) markets show less than one GWp of installed PV. Approximately 80% of global installed PV capacity (81,740 MWp) is installed in countries that have a gross domestic production (GDP) per capita higher than 30,

3 USD per year. Low income countries (GDP/capita <10,000 USD) claim 10,854 MWp in 145 countries. Low income countries have more than ten folded their PV capacity since 2009, which is four times more than high income countries that increased their installed PV capacity only by a factor of 2.5 during the same period of time [15]. Countries with a GDP per capita between 30,000 USD and 10,000 USD represent only 5,940 MWp. Towards recent years when countries with less than 1,500 kwh/(m² a) represented the highest shares of installed PV, the majority of 51% of total PV by end of 2012 is located in countries with medium irradiation (1,500-2,000 kwh/(m² a)) [15, 16]. Countries having less than 1,500 kwh/(m² a) show 46% of total installed PV. In those countries being predestined for using PV due to their very high insolation (>2,000 kwh/(m² a)), PV is often used as off-grid applications, leading to only 2.4% of global PV being installed there. Figure 3: Installed PV capacity per capita by end of Population data have been taken from the United Nations [24]. Figure 3 shows the PV installations per capita per country. It is recognizable that a small number of countries claims high rates of PV installations per capita. Germany (391 Wp/capita), Italy (267 Wp/capita), Belgium (236 Wp/capita), Czech Republic (192 Wp/capita), Greece (137 Wp/capita), Bulgaria (127 Wp/capita), Spain (102 Wp/capita), Australia (102 Wp/capita) and Slovenia (100 Wp/capita) are the ones with more than 100 Wp/capita. Especially, highly developed countries in Europe, North America, East Asia or Australia with respective electricity consumption per capita show significant rates. However emerging markets like Ukraine or Thailand show raised PV per head compared to similar countries. Furthermore island countries show significant high PV installations per capita. With Malta, Cyprus, Cape Verde, Bahamas, Bermuda, New Caledonia, Barbados, Rep. of Palau, Maldives, Kiribati and Mauritius a respective number of those are able to be found in the top 50 ranking in PV per capita. This might be due to PV being a cost effective energy source that enables those remote island countries releasing from high prices for conventional electricity generation [25, 30]. In world s average, every human claims 13.9 Wp PV in the statistical view. Figure 4: Global overview on cumulative PV installations per million USD of GDP as of end Data for GDP have been taken from the World Bank [26]. An indicator of how much capital is invested relatively in PV is recognizable in installed PV capacities per countries GDP (Figure 4). With the use of this comparative parameter markets are able to be compared. Few countries have reached significant ratios of PV installations per one million USD of GDP. One is able to realize Bulgaria being by far the country that relatively invests most of its economic power into PV (17 kwp/musd) followed by Czech Republic (9.5 kwp/musd), even ahead of the German market (8.9 kwp/musd). Furthermore small countries that often are rarely recognized due to having installed only a few MWp can be distiguished. Thus, countries like Cape Verde (4.8 kwp/musd), Kiribati (2 kwp/musd), Mauretania (1.8 kwp/musd), Solomon Islands (1.5 kwp/musd), Djibouti (1.5 kwp/musd) or Mali (1.3 kwp/musd) invest more of their economic power in PV than a bulk of highly developed countries. In comparison to this, the United States or Canada (0.49 kwp/musd each) have a vast potential of investing more capital in PV. Especially, typical off-grid PV countries, like the African ones have realized PV to be about to improve significantly the people s conditions of living and save enormous financial means in the mid- to long-term. Due to a fast amortization of PV systems in rural areas of developing countries [23, 31], these markets have no need for subsidies and make off-grid PV countries foremost in proportion of PV expenditures to GDP. Poland, Hong Kong or Azerbaijan show the lowest investments of their economic power in PV. Figure 5: Global overview on cumulative PV installations as of end 2012 per total power plant capacity per country for the year Some countries have already broken the 10%-threshold. Data for total power plant capacity have been taken from Platts, World Electric Power Plants database [27]. As a consequence of high ratios of PV to GDP, various countries have already reached a measurable share of PV 4735

4 in their total power plant capacities (Figure 5). Thus, 19% of German power generation capacity is complemented by PV. In Italy and Belgium 13% of the respective conventional power plant capacity is complemented by PV, each. Czech Republic and Cape Verde are claiming 12% and 10% of their total power plant capacity to be complemented, respectively. Especially, European and African countries show high ratios of PV in their power plant capacities. While regarding the African countries that represent high ratios of PV in their power plant capacities closely, it gets obvious them to be the ones using a bulk of diesel power plants for generation of electricity. Countries leading in usage of diesel power, due to their remote location like islands or couple of African countries, are leading in shares of PV in their total power plant capacity. This might be an indicator that PV is not only used as small off-grid PV solar home systems for sustainable electrification of rural areas, but also as a sustainable alternative for larger solutions as applied in hospitals, schools and supply of commericial appliances. This is especially prevailing in the background of high diesel prices and remote areas to be supplied with affordable electricity [25, 28]. Figure 6: Ratio of added PV capacity in 2012 to cumulative PV installations in 2011, representing growth in PV markets cumulative capacity. Figure 6 gives an overview on PV market growth in Few countries have reached huge growth rates in In Kyrgyzstan, the cumulative installed PV capacity has grown by more than 5900% to 1.2 MWp. But not even developing countries have shown high growth rates in Danish PV capacity by end of 2012 was more than 2000% higher than by end Respective growth rates are reached in nearly all regions of the world. Few European PV markets have more than doubled (Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Greece, Austria). The dominant German market reached a growth rate of 31%, while other countries show growth rates not higher than 10% (Spain, Norway and Czech Republic). Chinese PV installations have grown by about 112%. East Asian PV markets show growth rates about 50%, whereas South and South East Asian market seem to explode with lot of countries reaching growth rates more than % (Malaysia, Indonesia, Maldives, Myanmar and Nepal). Australian capacity reached a growth rate of 72% in However, Central Asian markets represent only few MWp being installed, high growth rates can be allocated to these countries. MENA region shows a growth of approx. 50%, led by United Arab Emirates with 70%. Most of the African markets grew by more than two digits. Especially Mauretania, Angola, South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania and Sierra Leone need to be distinguished. Growth rates in the Americas are quite different. While markets as the Caribbean, Panama (300%), Peru (230%), Chile (180%), Ecuador (130%), have grown on a high scale. Brazil market has grown 98%, United States PV installed capacity grew by about 75%. Canada and Mexico grew by about 40% each. Figure 7: Cumulative installed PV by end of 2012 (x-axis) and PV capacities growth rate in 2012 (y-axis). Every bubble represents one country. The color code of the bubbles refers to the GDP/capita (left axis). The code inside of the bubble represents the internet-domain of the relevant country. 4736

5 Figure 7 tries to give a segmentation of PV markets. For this, a portfolio analysis chart is anticipated to PV markets with the use of a logarithmic order. Cash cows are mature markets, that claim respective installed PV capacities (>100 MWp by end of 2012) with relatively low growth rates (<100 % in 2012), but still being the most important driver of global PV market. Germany, France, Italy, United States, Belgium, Japan and Korea are typical representatives of this PV market segment. Markets like South Africa, Netherlands or Portugal are sorted to this segment, as well. This segment claims 85% of total installed PV capacity. Even with very low growing markets as Spain (8% in 2012) or Czech Republic (5% in 2012), standing for annual installation of few 100 MWp, due to having an installed PV capacity of few GWp, this is the most important PV market segment. Furthermore cash cows mostly are countries with high income, whose PV markets are driven by feedin tariffs. Rising stars are probably the most interesting market segment, as respective installed PV capacities (>100 MWp) and high growth rates (>100%) led to significant installations in the relevant year. Denmark, Austria, Greece, China, India or Bulgaria represent this market segment in 2012.Therefore this segment stands for 13% of total global PV installations. An interesting question is, if those markets will be about to stay in this segment. In short to mid-term rising stars will become cash cows, as such high growth rates will not be able to be kept with increasing cumulative PV capacities in the years to come. Markets that show high growth rates, but relatively low installed PV can be named as question marks. They represent only 0.5% of global PV installations. Markets as Kyrgyzstan, Belize or Lithuania show high growth rates, but because of their low installed cumulative PV capacity, they are marginal in global PV. However, if these markets keep their high growth rates for some years, becoming a rising star can be a valid opportunity. Most interesting in this segment are markets, being close to this threshold of becoming a rising star. Cyprus, Romania, Malaysia, Indonesia, Turkey, Argentina or Peru are those that are expected to become new rising stars in the years to come. On the first view dogs seem to be markets being of less interest, since only 0.85% of total PV is installed in those countries. But especially these are the sustainable, nonfeed-in tariff driven markets which often claim a high share of PV off-grid applications, as Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, Bangladesh or Morocco. The normal way of leaving the dog -zone is to establish a high growth rate, which goes parallel to becoming a question mark and increases the cumulative installed capacity. Only few markets manage the hard way of directly becoming a cash cow, as Bangladesh and Brazil (and in wider circle Luxembourg, Saudi Arabia, Finland and Mexico as well) are about to do on a slow but more sustainable way. Figure 8: Average annual growth rate of cumulative PV capacity between 2009 and 2012 [15]. Figure 8 shows the average annual growth rate in the period from 2009 to Highest average annual growth rates within this period are able to be identified in Eastern Europe, Central and South Asia. Bulgaria and Ukraine grew annually by 435% and 407% on average, mainly caused by the high growth in PV capacities in 2011 and Denmark, the United Kingdom, Cyprus and Greece show high average growth rates, as well. In Africa Botswana shows by far the highest average growth rate from 2009 to South America claims several high growth regions (Peru, Uruguay, Ecuador), while others show less growth. However, high average growth rates are no indicator for a sustainable and constant growth. Deviations in PV markets annual growth rates are significant, due to markets often being driven by politically driven feed-in tariffs. Thus, average annual growth rates have to be seen in context of annual growth rates standard deviation (Figure 9). Figure 9: Average annual growth rate (x-axis) and growth rates standard deviation (y-axis) in the period from 2009 to Every bubble represents one country. The color code of the bubbles refers to the installed PV capacity by end of 2012 (left axis). The code inside of the bubble gives the internet-domain of the respective country. Sustainable growth is a significant but constant growth. As it can be seen in figure 9, such significant but constant growth in the recent years can be identified especially in Taiwan, Tajikistan, Austria, Tanzania, Qatar and Greece. Tanzania represents an average annual growth rate of 82% in the period from 2009 to In 2010 Tanzania s PV capacity grew by 81%, in 2011 by 86% and in 2012 by 78% to 9.6 MWp by end of This is an exemple for a very constant growth in PV. Moreover Tanzania s PV market is not driven by any feed-in tariffs, but only the demand for cost effective electricity in rural 4737

6 areas. Thus, Tanzania s PV market can definitely be named as being sustainable. If this constant and high growth might continue, Tanzania could reach 17.4 MWp by end of 2013 and 31.6 MWp by end of Austria s PV capacity grew by 124% in 2010, 82% in 2011 and 128% in 2012, which leads to an average annual growth rate of 111% with a relatively low standard deviation of only 21%. If this constant growth would go on, 880 MWp might be cumulatively be installed by end of Markets as Ukraine, Denmark, Slovakia or even the United Kingdom show high annual growth rates, but high standard deviations, due to inconstant growth with boom years being followed by such with very little growth [15, 16]. With the use of this evaluation of average annual growth, the constancy of growth rates, the help of other publications [17, 22] and the knowledge of four years of analysis of cumulative PV capacities [15, 16], a rough forecast of cumulative PV capacities for the years 2013 and 2014 is possible. In 2013, the global cumulative installed PV capacity might increase by 38% to 136,000 MWp by end of 2013 and by end of 2014, 176,000 MWp of cumulative installed PV capacity might be expected [17]. 3 CONCLUSIONS 98,988 MWp can be allocated to 190 countries. Analysis of ITC customs data for the years enables an allocation of 740 MWp in 134 countries with no other official data source available. Resulting 1,358 MWp expected to be installed in RoW by EPIA publications cannot be explained, however 487 MWp are assumed to be installed before 2001, i.e. it is not possible to generate PV market insight by ITC customs data. Therefore the remaining 871 MWp of assumed PV installations of the years cannot be allocated or might not exist, due to breakage etc. One is able to assess, that every world region might enhance a great PV market potential. Enormous growth rates in specific regions of the world show that PV is on the way to become an important part of global electricity supply. Some developing countries are on the road to solar electrification others use PV as an opportunity to decrease suffering from remote locations. Lower energy costs enabled by reduced dependence on energy imports, will contribute to lead these countries to sustainable development and stable growth. Energy is not the problem one should have, because the best and most powerful energy source is to be found above the heads. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to thank Daniel Zschuckelt and Richard Hackl for their great support during different steps of preparing this paper. REFERENCES [1] International Trade Centre Market Analysis Tool, Product Map, Market Analysis and Research Section, International Trade Centre, Geneva, [2] Photon International, Zellproduktion 2011, Photon Magazin, 2012(4), [plus respective data for the years either of Photon Magazin or Photon International] [3] Breyer Ch., Birkner Ch., Kersten F., Gerlach A., Stryi-Hipp G., Goldschmidt J.Ch., Montoro D.F., Riede M., Research and Development Investments in PV A limiting Factor for a fast PV Diffusion?, 25 th EU-PVSEC/ WCPEC-5, Valencia [4] Hanwha Q CELLS Market Intelligence, Intern Price Snapshot, Hanwha Q CELLS, Bitterfeld-Wolfen [5] Michelsen C., private communication, PV insights for India, 30/09/2010 [6] Flores C., private communication, PV insights for Mexico, 20/09/2010 [7] Scholle A., private communication, PV insights for South Africa, 20/09/2010 [8] Hankins M., private communication, PV insights for Kenya, 20/09/2010 [9] Roedern C., private communication, PV insights for Namibia, 29/09/2010 [10] Yayewardene P., private communication, PV insights for Sri Lanka, 21/09/2010 [11] Gnanalingam K., private communication, PV insights for Sri Lanka, 07/10/2010 [12] Cuamba B., private communication, PV insights for Mozambique, 07/10/2010 [13] Beckel O., private communication, PV insights for several countries, 08/22/2011 [14] Poulin F., infinergia, private communication, PV insights for several countries, 08/08/2011 [15] Werner Ch., Gerlach A., Adelmann P., Breyer Ch., Global Overview on Cumulative Installed Photovotlaic Power, 2 nd Symposium Small PV- Applications, Ulm, [16] Werner Ch., Gerlach A., Adelmann P., Breyer Ch., Global Overview on Cumulative Installed Photovotlaic Power, Proceedings 26 th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, Hamburg [17] [EPIA] European Photovoltaic Industry Association, Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics , EPIA, Brussels, tions/gmo_2013_-_final_pdf.pdf [18] International Energy Agency Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA-PVPS), Trends in Photovoltaic Applications - Survey report of selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2011, Paris, sh&docid=1239 [19] International Energy Agency Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA-PVPS), PVPS Report - A Snapshot of Global PV , Paris, preview, sh&docid=1233 [20] Journale du photovoltaique, 2013, Photovoltaic Barometer, Eurobserv er, 2013 (9), Paris 4738

7 [21] European Commission, PV Status Report 2012, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy and Transport, Waldau A.-J., Luxembourg [22] Hanwha Q CELLS Market Intelligence, Market Research, Hanwha Q CELLS, Bitterfeld-Wolfen [23] Breyer Ch., Werner Ch., Rolland S., Adelmann P., Off-Grid Photovoltaic Applications in Regions of Low Electrification: High Demand, Fast Financial Amortization and Large Market Potential, Proceedings 26 th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, Hamburg [24] United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.228, New York [25] Breyer Ch.,Gerlach A., Schäfer D., Schmid J., Fuel-Parity: New Very Large and Sustainable Market Segments for PV Systems, IEEE EnergyCon, Manama, 2010, December [26] World Bank, Gross Domestic Production until 2012, The World Bank Group, World Development Indicators database, Washington, P.CD [27] Platts, World Electric Power Plants database, Platts - Division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, New York [28] Werner Ch. and Breyer Ch., Analysis of Mini-grid Installations: An Overview on System Configurations, Proceedings 27 th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, Frankfurt [29] Breyer Ch. and Schmid J., Population Density and Area weighted Solar Irradiation: Global Overview on Solar Resource Conditions for Fixed Tilted, 1-Axis and 2-Axis PV Systems, 25th EU PVSEC, Valencia [30] Seguin R., Blechinger P., Cader C., Bertheau P., Breyer Ch., PV-Potential of Small Island Mini-Grids, this conference [31] Cader C., Hlusiak M., Breyer Ch., Highresolution global cost advantages of stand-alone small-scale hybrid PV-Battery-Diesel Systems, 2 nd International Conference on Micro Perspectives for Decentralized Energy Supply, Berlin, February 27 March

8 Appendix Table 1: Alphabetical list of all countries in the world and their cumulative installed PV capacity as end of Data is compiled as documented in the paper and based on EPIA, IEA-PVPS and further publications [2-22] plus ITC data [1]. PV capacity by end of 2012 [MWp] PV capacity by end of 2011 [MWp] PV capacity by end of 2010 [16] [MWp] PV capacity by end of 2009 [15] [MWp] Average Growth Rate in [-] PV/capita by end of 2012 [Wp/capit a] PV/GDP by end of 2012 [Wp/mUS D] PV share in power plant capacity by end of 2012 Afghanistan % % Albania % % Algeria % % Andorra % % Angola % % Antigua and Barbuda % % Argentina % % Armenia % % Australia 2, , % , % Austria % , % Azerbaijan % % Bahamas, The % % Bahrain % % Bangladesh % % Barbados % % Belarus % % Belgium 2, , % , % Belize % % Benin % % Bermuda % % Bhutan % % Bolivia % % Bosnia-Herzegovina % % Botswana % % Brazil % % Brunei % % Bulgaria % , % Burkina Faso % % Burma % % Burundi % % Cambodia % % Cameroon % % Canada % % Cape Verde % , % Central African Rep % % Chad % % Chile % % China 6, , % % [-] 4740

9 Colombia % % Comoros % % Congo, DR % % Congo, Republic of the % % Costa Rica % % Croatia % % Cuba % % Cyprus % % Czech Republic 2, , , % , % Denmark % , % Djibouti % , % Dominica % % Dominican Republic % % Ecuador % % Egypt % % El Salvador % % Equatorial Guinea % % Eritrea % % Estonia % % Ethiopia % % Fed. States Micronesia % % Fiji % % Finland % % France 3, , , % , % Gabon % % Gambia, The % , % Georgia % % Germany 32, , , , % , % Ghana % % Greece 1, % , % Greenland % % Grenada % % Guam % % Guatemala % % Guinea % % Guinea - Bissau % % Guyana % , % Haiti % % Honduras % % Hong Kong % % Hungary % % Iceland % % India 1, % % Indonesia % % Iran % % Iraq % % Ireland % % Israel % , % Italy 16, , , , % , % 4741

10 Ivory Coast % % Jamaica % % Japan 7, , , , % , % Jordan % % Kazakhstan % % Kenya % % Kiribati % , % Korea, DPR % % Korea, Republic of % % Kuwait % % Kyrgyzstan % % Laos % % Latvia % % Lebanon % % Lesotho % % Liberia % % Libya % % Lithuania % % Luxembourg % % Macedonia % % Madagascar % % Malawi % % Malaysia % % Maldives % % Mali % , % Malta % , % Mauritania % , % Mauritius % % Mexico % % Moldova % % Mongolia % % Morocco % % Mozambique % % Namibia % % Nepal % % Netherlands % % New Caledonia % % New Zealand % % Nicaragua % % Niger % % Nigeria % % Norfolk Island % % Norway % % Oman % % Pakistan % % Panama % % Papua New Guinea % % Paraguay % % Peru % % 4742

11 Philippines % % Poland % % Portugal % % Puerto Rico % % Qatar % % Republic of Palau % % Romania % % Russia % % Rwanda % % Sao Tome and Principe % % Saudi Arabia % % Senegal % , % Seychelles % % Serbia % % Sierra Leone % % Singapore % % Slovakia % , % Slovenia % , % Solomon Island % , % Somalia % % South Africa % % Spain 4, , , , % , % Sri Lanka % % St. Helena % % St. Lucia % % St. Vincent and the Gre % % Sudan % % Suriname % % Swaziland % % Sweden % % Switzerland % % Syria % % Taiwan % % Tajikistan % % Tanzania % % Thailand % , % Togo % % Trinidad and Tobago % % Tunisia % % Turkey % % Turkmenistan % % Uganda % % Ukraine % , % United Arab Emirates % % United Kingdom 1, % % United States 7, , , , % % Uruguay % % Uzbekistan % % Venezuela % % 4743

12 Vietnam % % Western Sahara % % Yemen % % Zambia % % Zimbabwe % % 4744

13 Appendix Table 2: Alphabetical list of all countries in the world with data for reasons of further analyses and comparing. -1 indicates no data available. Population [24] GDP [26] GDP/capita Total power plant capacity in operation [27] Population weighted irradiation [29] [1000pop] [bnusd] [USD] [MW] [kwh/m²/y] Afghanistan 30, ,164 Albania 3, , ,923 Algeria 39, , ,993 Andorra Angola 21, , ,084 Antigua and Barbuda , Argentina 41, , ,962 Armenia 2, , ,830 Australia 23,343 1, , ,914 Austria 8, , ,389 Azerbaijan 9, , ,685 Bahamas, The , ,198 Bahrain 1, Bangladesh 156, ,908 Barbados , Belarus 9, , ,264 Belgium 11, , ,203 Belize , ,807 Benin 10, Bermuda , Bhutan , ,943 Bolivia 10, , ,037 Bosnia-Herzegovina 3, , ,548 Botswana 2, , ,302 Brazil 200,362 2, , ,883 Brunei , ,915 Bulgaria 7, , ,606 Burkina Faso 16, ,164 Burma 53, ,939 Burundi 10, ,803 Cambodia 15, ,937 Cameroon 22, , ,875 Canada 35,182 1, , ,554 Cape Verde , ,283 Central African Republic 4, ,031 Chad 12, ,222 Chile 17, , ,124 China 1,385,567 7, , ,631 Colombia 48, , ,732 Comoros ,

14 Congo, DR 67, ,848 Congo, Republic of the 4, , ,638 Costa Rica 4, , ,735 Croatia 4, , ,586 Cuba 11, ,987 Cyprus , ,244 Czech Republic 10, , ,251 Denmark 5, , ,287 Djibouti , ,318 Dominica , ,386 Dominican Republic 10, , ,995 Ecuador 15, , ,660 Egypt 82, , ,242 El Salvador 6, , ,206 Equatorial Guinea , ,632 Eritrea 6, ,215 Estonia 1, , ,298 Ethiopia 94, ,205 Falkland Islands ,458 Federated States of Micronesia , ,016 Fiji , ,976 Finland 5, , ,181 France 64,291 2, , ,441 French Guiana ,785 Gabon 1, , ,667 Gambia, The 1, ,129 Georgia 4, , ,678 Germany 82,727 3, , ,222 Ghana 25, , ,852 Greece 11, , ,753 Greenland Grenada , ,317 Guadeloupe ,344 Guam ,212 Guatemala 15, , ,997 Guinea 11, ,046 Guinea - Bissau 1, ,089 Guyana , ,784 Haiti 10, ,146 Honduras 8, , ,932 Hong Kong 7, , ,506 Hungary 9, , ,445 Iceland , India 1,252,140 1, , ,032 Indonesia 249, , ,809 Iran 77, , ,041 Iraq 33, , ,073 Ireland 4, , ,055 Israel 7, , ,

15 Italy 60,990 2, , ,720 Ivory Coast 20, , ,818 Jamaica 2, , ,132 Japan 127,144 5, , ,578 Jordan 7, , ,103 Kazakhstan 16, , ,709 Kenya 44, ,124 Kiribati , ,178 Korea, DPR 24, ,874 Korea, Republic of 49,263 1, , ,770 Kuwait 3, , ,134 Kyrgyzstan 5, , ,840 Laos 6, , ,829 Latvia 2, , ,307 Lebanon 4, , ,159 Lesotho 2, , Liberia 4, ,781 Libya 6, ,110 Lithuania 3, , ,277 Luxembourg , Macedonia 2, , ,718 Madagascar 22, ,091 Malawi 16, ,088 Malaysia 29, , ,766 Maldives , Mali 15, ,185 Malta , ,188 Martinique ,323 Mauritania 3, , ,202 Mauritius 1, , ,244 Mexico 122,332 1, , ,136 Moldova 3, , ,492 Mongolia 2, , ,910 Morocco 33, , ,153 Mozambique 25, ,026 Namibia 2, , ,352 Nepal 27, ,176 Netherlands 16, , ,242 New Caledonia ,129 New Zealand 4, ,644 Nicaragua 6, , ,016 Niger 17, ,382 Nigeria 173, , ,978 Northern Mariana Islands ,272 Norway 5, , ,103 Oman 2, , ,239 Pakistan 182, , ,135 Palestine ,056 Panama 3, , ,

16 Papua New Guinea 7, , ,825 Paraguay 6, , ,898 Peru 30, , ,006 Philippines 98, , ,842 Poland 38, , ,235 Portugal 10, , ,891 Puerto Rico 3, , ,142 Qatar 2, , ,065 Republic of Palau , ,020 Reunion ,292 Romania 21, , ,500 Russia 142,834 1, , ,403 Rwanda 11, ,831 Sao Tome and Principe , Saudi Arabia 28, , ,296 Senegal 14, , ,126 Seychelles , ,168 Serbia 9, , ,573 Sierra Leone 6, ,861 Singapore 5, , Slovakia 5, , ,286 Slovenia 2, , ,483 Solomon Island , ,953 Somalia 10, ,100 South Africa 52, , ,166 Spain 46,927 1, , ,886 Sri Lanka 21, , ,813 St. Helena ,149 St. Lucia , St. Vincent and the Grenadines , ,277 Sudan 37, , ,271 Suriname , ,872 Swaziland 1, , ,982 Sweden 9, , ,218 Switzerland 8, , ,467 Syria 21, ,026 Taiwan 23, ,632 Tajikistan 8, ,996 Tanzania, United Republic of 49, ,043 Thailand 67, , ,903 Togo 6, ,931 Trinidad and Tobago 1, , ,136 Tunisia 10, , ,916 Turkey 74, , ,839 Turkmenistan 5, , ,894 Uganda 37, ,980 Ukraine 45, , ,398 United Arab Emirates 9, , ,261 United Kingdom 63,136 2, , ,

17 United States 320,051 14, , ,796 Uruguay 3, , ,853 Uzbekistan 28, , ,976 Venezuela 30, , ,934 Vietnam 91, , ,665 Virgin Islands Western Sahara ,209 Yemen 24, , ,295 Zambia 14, , ,201 Zimbabwe 14, ,