SSP Database for GTAP Users

Transcription

1 Global Trade Analysis Project SSP Database for GTAP Users Dominique van der Mensbrugghe Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University 2015 GTAP Advisory Board Meeting Center for Global Trade Analysis Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University 403 West State Street, West Lafayette, IN USA

2 Motivation Evolution of the economics of climate change community Since 2007, Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) Coordinates international research on climate change Provides key contributions to IPCC Assessment Reports Though mostly driven by economic, energy and bio-physical modelers, also encompasses ESM and IAV communities Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to replace SRES Parallel process (RCPs and SSPs) Now in integration phase Key drivers available since 2013 Demographics, education, GDP and urbanization 2

3 Two-axes: adaptation & mitigation challenges Socio-economic challenges for mitigation SSP5 SSP3 (Mitigation challenges dominate) (High challenges) Fossil-fueled Development Regional Rivalry Taking the Highway A Rocky Road SSP2 (Intermediate challenges) Middle of the Road SSP1 SSP4 (Low challenges) (Adaptation challenges dominate) Sustainability Inequality Taking the Green Road A Road Divided Socio-economic challenges for adaptation Source: O Neill et al

4 Quantification Time framework Population source IIASA Age (5-year cohorts), gender, education (four levels none, primary, secondary, tertiary) GDP 3 sources IIASA, OECD, PIK All harmonized to same (IIASA) demographic scenarios IIASA and OECD country-level Urbanization source NCAR 4

5 Global population, billion billion billion 8 6 SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP Source: IIASA

6 Lower growth in second half of the century 160,000 Global GDP per capita, $2005 PPP 5 GDP per capita growth rates, per cent per annum 140,000 x , ,000 SSP1 3 80,000 x 8.4 SSP2 SSP3 60,000 x 6.1 SSP4 SSP5 2 40,000 x ,000 x Source: IIASA/OECD

7 Next steps Data is now available for GTAP users in HAR and GDX format Replicates data on IIASA website Gap filled and annualized lining up with UN s 230 country classification matches GDP growth from WDI GDP data in $2007 using MER Data will be updated for use with GTAP V9 GDP will be available at $2011 MER and PPP IAMC community has started integration phase Storylines and impacts on agricultural productivity, energy demand patterns, emissions, land-use, poverty and income distribution Shared climate policy assumptions (SPAs), e.g. GHG emission mitigation scenarios Additional SSP indicators (e.g. land-use, energy and emissions) now available at IIASA website: (for review through June 2015). 7

8 Shared Socio-Economic Pathways References Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Nakićenović, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Stouffer, R. J., Thomson, A. M., Weyant, J. P. & Wilbanks, T. J. The Next Generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, 2010, 463, Kriegler, E., O'Neill, B., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Lempert, R., Moss, R. & Wilbanks, T. Socio-Economic Scenario Development for Climate Change Analysis. CIRED, 2010 O'Neill, B. C., Carter, T. R., Ebi, K. L., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., Kemp-Benedict, E., Kriegler, E., Mearns, L., Moss, R., Riahi, K., van Ruijven, B. & van Vuuren, D. Meeting Report of the Workshop on The Nature and Use of New Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Research. National Center for Atmospheric Research, 2012 van Vuuren, D. P., Riahi, K., Moss, R., Edmonds, J., Thomson, A., Nakićenović, N., Kram, T., Berkhout, F., Swart, R., Janetos, A., Rose, S. K. & Arnell, N. A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities. Global Environmental Change, 2012, 22, Kriegler, E., O'Neill, B. C., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Lempert, R. J., Moss, R. H. & Wilbanks, T. The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways. Global Environmental Change, 2012, 22, Climatic Change Special Issue: A Framework for the Development of New Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Change Research. 122(3), February O Neill, Brian C., Elmar Kriegler, Kristie L. Ebi, Eric Kemp-Benedict, Keywan Riahi, Dale S. Rothman, Bas J. van Ruijven, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Joern Birkmann, Kasper Kok, Marc Levy and William Solecki. The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environmental Change, 2015, in press, 8

9 Population Data source: IIASA (2013) References KC, S. & Lutz, W. SSP Population Projections Assumptions and Methods. IIASA, 2012 KC, S. & Lutz, W. The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to Global Environmental Change, KC, S. & Lutz, W. Demographic scenarios by age, sex and education corresponding to the SSP narratives. Population and Environment, 2014, 35, IIASA/OECD/PIK/NCAR. Supplementary note for the SSP data sets. Features Country level demographic projections through 2100 for all 5 SSPs. SSP2 broadly aligned to UN Population Division s 2010 Revision, Medium variant. Country population broken into 5-year age cohorts, gender, and education levels 4 education levels: none, primary, secondary and tertiary 9

10 GDP data Data source: IIASA/OECD (2013) References Chateau, J., Dellink, R., Lanzi, E. & Magné, B. Long-term economic growth and environmental pressure: reference scenarios for future global projections. Paper presented at the 15 th annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Geneva, June IIASA/OECD/PIK/NCAR. Supplementary note for the SSP data sets. Features GDP projections for 187 countries covering in five-year time steps for all five SSPs Harmonized to IIASA population projections Levels in $2005 at 2005 purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates. 10