Can future energy needs be met through more integrated infrastructures?

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Diana Farmer
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1 Can future energy needs be met through more integrated infrastructures? Nebojša Nakićenović International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx Technische Universität Wien xx Brainstorming Workshop on Transporting Tens of Gigawatts of Green Power to the Market, Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies Kleist Villa, Potsdam May 2011

Education 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1800 1850

2 Education 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nakicenovic Source: Lutz, 2007 #2 2011

3 Democratization 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nakicenovic Source: Modelski, 2002 #3 2011

Urbanization 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1800 1850

4 Urbanization 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nakicenovic Source: Grübler, 2007 #4 2011

5 Urban and Rural Population Projections (in Millions: GEA-H, GEA-M, GEA-L and UN WUP, 2010) World.GEA2H.urb World.GEA2H.rur World.GEA2M.urb World.GEA_M.rur World.GEA2L.urb World.GEA_L.rur World.UN.urb World.UN.rur World.HIST.urb World.HIST.rur

6 City Hierarchies (Rank Size) Chinese Sea Population (Million) Tokyo London Peking Baghdad Peking AD 900 Hangchow Rank Source: Gruebler et al, 2009

7 City Hierarchies (Rank Size) Chinese Sea Population (Million) Tokyo London Peking Baghdad Peking Hangchow AD Rank Source: Gruebler et al, 2009

8 City Hierarchies (Rank Size) Chinese Sea Population (Million) Tokyo London Peking Baghdad Peking AD 900 Hangchow AD Rank Source: Gruebler et al, 2009

9 City Hierarchies (Rank Size) Chinese Sea Population (Million) Tokyo London Peking Baghdad Constantinople Peking AD 900 AD 1700 Hangchow Rank Source: Gruebler et al, 2009

10 City Hierarchies (Rank Size) Chinese Sea Population (Million) Tokyo London Peking Baghdad AD 1800 Peking AD 900 Hangchow Rank Source: Gruebler et al, 2009

11 City Hierarchies (Rank Size) Chinese Sea Population (Million) Tokyo London AD 1900 Peking Baghdad Peking AD 900 Hangchow Rank Source: Gruebler et al, 2009

12 City Hierarchies (Rank Size) Population (Million) Chinese Sea Tokyo New York AD 1950 London Peking Baghdad Peking AD 900 Hangchow Rank Source: Gruebler et al, 2009

13 City Hierarchies (Rank Size) Population (Million) Chinese Sea Tokyo AD 2000 London Peking Baghdad Peking AD 900 Hangchow Rank Source: Gruebler et al, 2009

14 City Hierarchies (Rank Size) Chinese Sea Population (Million) Tokyo London Peking Baghdad Peking AD 900 Hangchow Rank Source: Gruebler et al, 2009

15 City Hierarchies (Rank Size) Chinese Sea Population (Million) Tokyo London Peking Baghdad Peking AD 900 Hangchow Rank Source: Gruebler et al, 2009

IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

16 Confronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and its international partners present

17 Towards a more Sustainable Future! Energy is a crucial development goal for responding to challenges in the 21st century! Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stakeholders work together.! Energy transformation will bring multiple cobenefits for health, security, climate change! Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies

18 Night Lights 2000 Nakicenovic Source: After SRES, 2000 #

19 Night Lights IIASA A2r Scenario SRES A Nakicenovic Source: After SRES, 2000 #

20 Global Energy Transformations! Access to energy and ecosystem services (a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)! Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating climate change brings multiple co-benefits! Energy transformations require R&D and rapid technology diffusion & deployment! Sustained energy investments are needed and would result in multiple co-benefits Nakicenovic #

21 Mapping Energy Access Final energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density Billions of people: Abject poverty: 1.3 Poor: 0.6 Less poor: 1.4 Middle class: 1.6 Rich: Source: Gruebler et al, 2009 #21

22 Global Carbon Reservoirs Atmosphere 850 GtC Biomass ~500 GtC Unconventional. Gas ~1000 GtC N. Gas ~250 GtC Oil ~250 GtgC GtC UnconventonalOil ~1150 GtgC Soils ~1,500 GtC Coal ~ 12,000 GtC Unconventional Hydrocarbons 15,000 to 40,000 GtC 14

23 Europe Population vs. Energy Demand Density WEU: 21% of demand below renewable density threshold EEU: 34% of demand below renewable density threshold

26 Global Energy Transformations! Access to energy and ecosystem services (a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)! Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating climate change brings multiple co-benefits! Energy transformations require R&D and rapid technology diffusion & deployment! Sustained energy investments are needed and would result in multiple co-benefits Nakicenovic #

27 Global Carbon Emissions #27

28 Global Primary Energy EJ Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Commercial aviation" Nuclear energy Microchip" Steam engine" Electric motor" Gasoline engine" Vacuum tube" Television" Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass #28

29 Global Primary Energy Efficiency EJ Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Commercial aviation" Nuclear energy Microchip" Steam engine" Electric motor" Gasoline engine" Vacuum tube" Television" Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass #29

30 Global Primary Energy Efficiency EJ Other renewables Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Commercial aviation" Nuclear energy Microchip" Steam engine" Electric motor" Vacuum Gasoline tube" engine" Television" MESSAGE GEA Efficiency MESSAGE GEA Mix MESSAGE GEA Supply IMAGE RCP 3 PD REMIND RECIPE REMIND Adam MERGE ETL MARKAL ETP Blue POLES Adam MESSAGE WEC C1 MESAP energy[r]evolution 2008 MESAP energy[r]evolution 2010 MESAP advanced revolution 2010 WGBU #30

31 Global Primary Energy Efficiency EJ Other renewables Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Commercial aviation" Nuclear energy Microchip" Advanced transportation Conventional transportation Steam engine" Electric motor" Vacuum Gasoline tube" engine" Television" Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy #31

32 Final Energy Transformations 100% On - site generation Final&energy&share&(percent%) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Grids (gas, district heat, electricity, hydrogen) Liquids (oil products, biofuels, other liquids) Solids (coal, biomass) GEA - E GEA - S #32

33 Global Energy Transformations! Access to energy and ecosystem services (a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)! Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating climate change brings multiple co-benefits! Energy transformations require R&D and rapid technology diffusion & deployment! Sustained energy investments are needed and would result in multiple co-benefits Nakicenovic #

34 A Vision of a Future Energy System Nakicenovic Source: EU, 2002 # # 2010

over 150 kwh/(m²a) -90% 15 kwh/(m²a) Source: Jan Barta,

35 Example of savings by reconstruction Before reconstruction Reconstruction according to the passive house principle over 150 kwh/(m²a) -90% 15 kwh/(m²a) Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, EEBW2006 #35

36 CITARO H 2 Fuel Cell Bus Nakicenovic # # 2010

37 Area Occupied by Various Transport Modes Nakicenovic Source: WBCSD, 2005 # # 2010

38 Energy SuperGrid and MagLev Trains Source: EPRI Nakicenovic # # 2010

39 Potential Synergies between New Energy and Transport Infrastructures: Asian Supergrid Super Cables Power lines Electric Power Research institute MAGLEV Source: Y. Yamagata, NIES. 2010

40 Energy Innovation and Investments Worldwide, Billion $ innovation market diffusion (RD&D) formation End-use & efficiency >> Fossil fuel supply >12 2 >> Nuclear > Renewables >12 4 ~20 11 >20 18 Electricity (Gen+T&D) >>1 5 ~ Other* and unspecified >>4 6 <15 13 n.a. Total >50 7 < < Notes: * hydrogen, fuel cells, other power & storage technologies, basic energy research #40

41 Global Energy Transformations! Access to energy and ecosystem services (a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)! Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating climate change brings multiple co-benefits! Energy transformations require R&D and rapid technology diffusion & deployment! Sustained energy investments are needed and would result in multiple co-benefits Nakicenovic #

42 Co-Benefits of Energy Investments

43 Co-Benefits of Energy Investments

44 Source: David Sanborn Scott, 2004 #44 44

45 Geoengineering Options Nakicenovic Source: Matthews, 2001 # # 2010

Multiple Co-Benefits of a Fundamental Energy Transformation Perspectives from the Global Energy Assessment

Multiple Co-Benefits of a Fundamental Energy Transformation Perspectives from the Global Energy Assessment Nebojša Nakićenović International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx Technische Universität