Globale Energiestrategien für f r Nachhaltige Energienutzung: Rollen der fossilen und erneuerbaren Energieträger

Transcription

1 Globale Energiestrategien für f r Nachhaltige Energienutzung: Rollen der fossilen und erneuerbaren Energieträger ger Nebojša a Nakićenovi enović International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx Technische Universität t Wien xx naki@eeg.tuwien.ac.at 50 Jahre ÖGEW, Öl l & Gas im Wandel der Zeit, im Naturhistorischen Museum, Wien, Österreich 12 November 2010

2 Global Energy Transformations Access to energy and ecosystem services (a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing) Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating climate change brings multiple co-benefits Energy transformations require R&D and rapid technology diffusion & deployment Sustained energy investments are needed and would result in multiple co-benefits Nakicenovic #2 2010

3 Global Energy Transformations Access to energy and ecosystem services (a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing) Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating climate change brings multiple co-benefits Energy transformations require R&D and rapid technology diffusion & deployment Sustained energy investments are needed and would result in multiple co-benefits Nakicenovic #3 2010

4 The Natomo Family 6:30am March 27, 1993 Kouakourou,, Mali Nakicenovic 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY #4 2010

5 The Ukita Family 4:30pm December 16, 1992 Tokyo, Japan Nakicenovic 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY #5 2010

6 Mapping Energy Access Final energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density Billions of people: Abject poverty: 1.3 Poor: 0.6 Less poor: 1.4 Middle class: 1.4 Rich: Source: Gruebler et al, 2009 #6

7 Health Benefits of Pollution Control (loss of stat. life expectancy - PM) Source: Smith et al, 2009 #7

8 Reasons for Concern Red Amber 4 o C 3 o C 2 o C Source: Smith IPCC TAR, et al PNAS, 2009

9 Carbon Reservoirs Atmosphere GtC Biomass ~500 GtC Unconvention al. Gas ~1000 GtC N. Gas ~250 GtC Oil ~250 GtgC UnconventonalOil ~1150 GtgC Soils ~1,500 GtC Coal 12,000 GtC Unconventional Hydrocarbons 15,000 to 40,000 GtC 14

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12 Global Energy Transformations Access to energy and ecosystem services (a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing) Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating climate change brings multiple co-benefits Energy transformations require R&D and rapid technology diffusion & deployment Sustained energy investments are needed and would result in multiple co-benefits Nakicenovic #

13 Global CO 2 Emissions INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

14 Global Primary Energy 1000 Primary Energy (EJ) Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass engine Electric engine Vacuum Commercial Television Microchip energy Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil 100 Coal 0 Biomass #14

15 Global Primary Energy 1000 Primary Energy (EJ) Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass engine Electric engine Vacuum Commercial Television Microchip energy Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil 100 Coal 0 Biomass #15

16 Global Primary Energy Other renewables Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass #16 EJ Primary Energy GEA -Efficiency GEA -Mix GEA-Supply RCP 3-PD REMINS-RECIPE REMINS-ADAM MERGE-ETL ETP BLUE POLES [r]evolution WEC-C1 WBGU

17 Global Energy Transformations Access to energy and ecosystem services (a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing) Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating climate change brings multiple co-benefits Energy transformations require R&D and rapid technology diffusion & deployment Sustained energy investments are needed and would result in multiple co-benefits Nakicenovic #

18 Mitigation Portfolios (which technologies we need) versus R&D (which technologies we develop) cumulative emission reduction (mean of all scenarios) All IEA countries cumulative R&D current R&D ( ) 2007 GtC % min % max % 10 9 US$2007 % 10 9 US$2007 % Energy efficiency Fossil Fuels Renewables Nuclear Others Total Nakicenovic Source: Gruebler,, 2009 #

19 Existing and Planned Projects Sleipner Project, saline formation, North Sea Weyburn, EOR, Saskatchewan, Canada In Salah, gas reservoir, Algeria (development) Snohvit, off-shore saline formation, North Sea Gorgon, saline formation, Australia (planning) Nakicenovic #19 Source: Sally Benson, 2003

20 CITARO H 2 Fuel Cell Bus Nakicenovic #

21 Area Occupied by Various Transport Modes Nakicenovic Source: WBCSD, 2005 #

22 Energy SuperGrid and MagLev Trains Source: EPRI Nakicenovic #

23 Potential Synergies between New Energy and Transport Infrastructures: Asian Supergrid Super Cables Power lines Electric Power Research institute MAGLEV Source: Y. Yamagata, NIES. 2010

24 Global Energy Transformations Access to energy and ecosystem services (a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing) Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating climate change brings multiple co-benefits Energy transformations require R&D and rapid technology diffusion & deployment Sustained energy investments are needed and would result in multiple co-benefits Nakicenovic #

25 Co-Benefits of Energy Investments Based on IIASA-GEA: Riahi et al, Sustainable energy expenditures: 2500 Other costs Multiple benefits include: 1) Avoided subsidies(ref?) 2) Avoided costs of pollution control due to application of zero-polltion technpologies and efficiency enhancements(gea) 3) Reduced need for energy security expenditures for limiting energy imports (due to higher reliance on domestic renewables and efficiency): GEA estimate 4) Health benefits due to universal energy access (based on GEApathways and DALY estimates from WHO) 5) Avoided climate change impacts (based on GEA pathways and estimated social cost of carbon from IPCC AR4, WGIII, chapter 3) Upper uncertainty range of benefits billion US$ per year ( ) Investments : Access Efficiency Infrastructure CCS Nuclear Renewables Multiple Co-benefis Climate impacts (social costs of carbon) Access (life-losses) Energy security costs Pollution control costs Subsidies 0 Nakicenovic #