Scenarios in IPCC & SRES and Beyond
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1 Scenarios in IPCC & SRES and Beyond Nebojša Nakićenović Vienna University of Technology xx International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx Scenario Community Meeting, CECO, Changwon, korea July 2011
2 Scenarios in IPCC & Community Efforts Toward AR5 Nebojša Nakićenović Vienna University of Technology xx International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx Scenario Community Meeting, CECO, Changwon, korea July 2011
3 Previous IPCC Scenarios IPCC Special Report and Future Outlook Six IS92 scenarios Four SA90 scenarios 1995 Evaluation Scenarios 1996 Panel decision new scenarios IPCC Emissions Scenarios Extensive literature review >2010 Four narrative storylines Six TAR modeling mitigation frameworks RCPs AR5 scenarios Forty emissions scenarios AR4 assessment Six illustrative of stabilization scenarios Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES) RCPs/SSPs INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Nakicenovic #
4 Global Population Projection SA90 Scenarios 20 World Population (sa90, n=1) 15 billion Nakicenovic #4 2011
5 Global Population Projections IS92 Scenarios IS92a IS92b IS92c IS92d IS92e IS92f World Population (is92, n=6) billion Nakicenovic #5 2011
6 Global Population Projections World Population (pre SRES, non intervention, n=42) World Population (pre SRES, non intervention, n=44) 20 billion pre SRES non intervention pre SRES non intervention Nakicenovic #6 2011
7 Global Population Projections 20 pre SRES range World Population (SRES, n=40) (pre SRES, n=62) 15 billion 10 SRES pre SRES Nakicenovic #7 2011
8 Global Population Projections 20 pre SRES range World Population (post SRES, n=168) (pre SRES, n=62) 15 billion 10 5 post SRES pre SRES Nakicenovic #8 2011
9 Global Population Projections 20 World Population (post SRES, non intervention, n=64) post SRES, non intervention range Median 15 billion Nakicenovic #9 2011
10 Gross World Product SA90 Scenarios Lower Growth Higher Growth World GDP (sa90, n=2) 600 trillion 1990$ Nakicenovic #
11 Gross World Product IS 1992 Scenarios IS92a IS92b IS92c IS92d IS92e IS92f World GDP (is92, n=6) trillion 1990$ Nakicenovic #
12 Gross World Product Range Across Emissions Scenarios 800 World GDP (pre SRES, non intervention, n=113) trillion 1990$ pre SRES non intervention Nakicenovic #
13 Gross World Product Range Across Emissions Scenarios 800 pre SRES range World GDP (SRES, n=40) (pre SRES, n=190) trillion 1990$ SRES pre SRES Nakicenovic #
14 Gross World Product Range Across Emissions Scenarios 800 pre SRES range World GDP (post SRES, n=283) (pre SRES, n=190) trillion 1990$ post SRES pre SRES Nakicenovic #
15 Gross World Product Range Across Emissions Scenarios 800 World GDP (pre SRES, non intervention, n=113) trillion 1990$ pre SRES non intervention post SRES non intervention Nakicenovic #
16 Carbon Emissions SA90 Scenarios D (Accellerated Policies) C (Control Policies) B (Low Emission) A (High Emission) World CO2 emissions (sa90, n=4) 50 Gt C Nakicenovic #
17 Carbon Emissions IS92 Scenarios SA90 range IS92a IS92b IS92c IS92d IS92e IS92f World CO2 emissions (is92, n=6) (sa90, n=4) Gt C Nakicenovic #
18 Carbon Emissions SRES Range of Scenarios IS92 range World CO2 emissions (SRES, n=40) (is92, n=6) Gt C Nakicenovic #
19 Carbon Emissions Range Across Emissions Scenarios 80 World CO2 emissions (pre SRES, non intervention, n=199) Gt C pre SRES non intervention Nakicenovic #
20 Carbon Emissions Range Across Emissions Scenarios 80 pre SRES range World CO2 emissions (SRES, n=40) (pre SRES, n=299) Gt C SRES pre SRES Nakicenovic #
21 Carbon Emissions Range Across Emissions Scenarios 80 World CO2 emissions (post SRES, n=302) (pre SRES, n=299) pre SRES range Gt C post SRES pre SRES Nakicenovic #
22 Carbon Emissions Range Across Emissions Scenarios World CO2 emissions (post SRES, non intervention, n=90) post SRES, non intervention range Median Gt C non intervention Nakicenovic #
23 IPCC Special Report IPCC Emissions Scenarios Extensive literature review Four narrative storylines Six modeling frameworks Forty emissions scenarios Six illustrative scenarios INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Nakicenovic #
24 IPCC SRES Storylines and Scenarios TS Figure 2 Population Low High Medium High Very-h Medium Low Economy and Technology INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Nakicenovic #
25 GDP Growth Rates and Affluence Annual growth rate of GDP, percent A1 China B1 DCs B2 India A2 Case A Case B China, Taiwan REFs Japan Germany Italy Case A OECD Case C GDP per capita, US(1990)$ Nakicenovic #
26 Carbon Emissions: Scenarios and Stabilization Profiles S450 S550 S650 Stabilization at 450, 550, 650 ppmv CO 2 WGI trajectory WRE 35 Gt in 2100 A1FI (A1C & A1G) A2 GtC A1B B2 S650 5 A1T B1 S550 S Nakicenovic #
27
28 Nakicenovic #
29 Nakicenovic #
30 Global CO 2 Emissions Baselines (blue) N = World CO2 Emissions (GtCO2) Nakicenovic #
31 Global CO 2 Emissions World CO2 Emissions (GtCO2) Nakicenovic #
32 Global CO 2 Emissions % - 90% range (baselines) 10% - 90% range (stabilization) Post-SRES (max-baselines) World CO2 Emissions (GtCO2) post-sres range baselines Post-SRES (min-baselines) Nakicenovic #
33 Global CO 2 Emissions 140 Stabilization targets: Post-SRES (max-baselines) World CO2 Emissions (GtCO2) VI: ppm CO2-eq V: ppm CO2-eq IV: ppm CO2-eq III: ppm CO2-eq II: ppm CO2-eq I: ppm CO2-eq Post-SRES (min-baselines) Nakicenovic #
34 Long-term mitigation: stabilisation and equilibrium global mean temperatures The lower the stabilisation level the earlier global CO 2 emissions have to peak World CO2 Emissions (GtCO2) Stabilization targets: VI: ppm CO2-eq V: ppm CO2-eq IV: ppm CO2-eq III: ppm CO2-eq II: ppm CO2-eq I: ppm CO2-eq post-sres (min) post-sres (max) 3W/m 2 4.5W/m 2 6W/m 2 8.5W/m Multigas and CO2 only studies combined
35 Test of IPCC s Near-Term Projections IPCC projections in FAR in 1990 & SAR in 1995, can now be compared to observations. What about near-term projections for the next decades? Source: Sir John, 2011
36 IPCC AR4 SRES A1B Source: Realclimate 2010 Nakicenovic #
37 Mitigation Climate Change Impacts Adaptation Emissions Socio-Economic Development Paths
38 Acknowledgements Thanks to Jae Edmonds and Richard Moss (PNLL), Kathy Hibbard (NCAR), Malte Meinshausen (PIK), Keywan Riahi (IIASA), Steve Rose (EPRI) and Detlef van Vuuren (MPN) for use of ther slides about IAMC activities and IAM-CM interactions. Nakicenovic #
39 New Scenarios: For Whom? Three major user communities: Climate modeling community need scenarios to provide a coherent, internally consistent, time-paths for Earth System Models. Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability modeling community need scenarios to provide a coherent, internally consistent, time-paths to assess the consequences of potential climate changes and to set the context for adaptive strategies. Integrated assessment community to provide a coherent, internally consistent, time-paths to assess the costs of emissions mitigation Nakicenovic #
40 Nakicenovic #
41 IAMC Meeting Tsukuba, Japan September 2009
42 Context: Parallel Process RADIATIVE FORCING GENERAL CHARACTERISTCS Uncertainty range of forcing in 2100 Shape of radiajve forcing over Jme REPRESENTATIVE CONCENTRATION PATHWAYS (RCPs) (Four pathways from exisjng literature) GHGs Short- lived gases and aerosols Land cover/use NEW SOCIO- ECONOMIC and EMISSIONS SCENARIOS; VULNERABILITY STORYLINES RCP- related AdaptaJon MiJgaJon StabilizaJon Overshoots Independent of RCPs CLIMATE SCENARIOS Near- term (2035) Long- term (2100+) Regional climate modeling Pa=ern scaling methods INTEGRATION OF CLIMATE AND SOCIO- ECONOMIC SCENARIOS Integrated scenarios Pa=ern scaling (climate) Downscaling of climate and socio- economic scenarios NEW RESEARCH AND ASSESSMENTS Impact, adaptajon, and vulnerability studies Feedbacks Model development Nakicenovic Source: Moss et al #
43 Context: Parallel Process RADIATIVE FORCING GENERAL CHARACTERISTCS Uncertainty range of forcing in 2100 Shape of radiajve forcing over Jme REPRESENTATIVE CONCENTRATION PATHWAYS (RCPs) (Four pathways from exisjng literature) GHGs Short- lived gases and aerosols Land cover/use NEW SOCIO- ECONOMIC and EMISSIONS SCENARIOS; VULNERABILITY STORYLINES RCP- related AdaptaJon MiJgaJon StabilizaJon Overshoots Independent of RCPs CLIMATE SCENARIOS Near- term (2035) Long- term (2100+) Regional climate modeling Pa=ern scaling methods INTEGRATION OF CLIMATE AND SOCIO- ECONOMIC SCENARIOS Integrated scenarios Pa=ern scaling (climate) Downscaling of climate and socio- economic scenarios NEW RESEARCH AND ASSESSMENTS Impact, adaptajon, and vulnerability studies Feedbacks Model development Nakicenovic Source: Moss et al #
44 FOUR RCPs RCP8.5 (IIASA/MESSAGE) >8.5 W/m 2 in 2100 and rising RCP6.0 (NIES/AIM) ~6 W/m 2 at stabilization after 2100 without exceeding target RCP4.5 (PNNL/MiniCAM) ~4.5 W/m 2 at stabilization after 2100 without exceeding target RCP2.6 (PBL/IMAGE) <3 W/m 2 stabilization in 2100 peak & decline stabilization TOTAL RADIATIVE FORCING (W/m2) MESSAGE - RCP 8.5 AIM - RCP MiniCAM - RCP 4.5 IMAGE - RCP3- PD (2.6) Nakicenovic #
45 CO 2 Emissions (World) RCP Baselines MtC RCP RCP RCP Nakicenovic Source: van Vuuren et al., 2009 #
46 CO 2 Emissions (World) Additional scenarios: ) To bracket uncertainties 2) Enhance comparability across RCP levels 3) Address critical IAM questions 4) Provide Input to the IAV community 5) Assess implications of negative emissions! RCP RCP RCP RCP Nakicenovic Source: Riahi, 2010 #
47 RCP database Central repository to share information and to allow easy access to the data Web-based working environment Allows comparisons across RCPs and base-year inventory data Quick data visualization Download of regional and spatial data Fully accessible version with RCPs online since 30 April 2009 RCP Database Native (raw) data from all 4 RCPs / Nakicenovic Source: van Vuuren et al., 2009 #
48 RCP Database Native (raw) data from all 4 RCPs
49 RCP Database Comparisons between RCPs (5 and 10 regions)
50 RCP Database 7 Land cover types
51 RCP Database 14 Emissions categories
52 RCP Database 12 Sectors (for each emissions category)
53 RCP Database Data download to Excel and in different graphical formats
54 Expected Scenarios Products Integrated scenario ensembles Representative concentrations pathways (RCPs) Ensemble climate projections forced by RCPs New socio-economic and emissions scenarios Regional scenarios broadly based on RCPs Global (and other) narrative scenario storylines Integrated scaled IAM and climate scenarios Nakicenovic Source: Moss et al., 2007 #
55 Unified (re-ordered) SSP scheme SSPs aim at covering the range of plausible combinations of mitigative and adaptive capacity (in the baseline) Baseline Emission Decreasing MiJgaJon Capacity SSP 5 SSP 3 SSP 2 SSP 1 SSP 4 Decreasing AdapJve Capacity Increasing SensiJvity Nakicenovic #
56 Possible SSP and Stabilization Level Scheme Baseline & StabilizasJon RadiaJve Forcing Different Reference SSPs Nakicenovic #
57 Possible SSP and Stabilization Level Scheme Baseline & StabilizasJon RadiaJve Forcing SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 1 SSP 2 Different Reference SSPs Nakicenovic #
58 Possible SSP and Stabilization Level Scheme Baseline & StabilizasJon RadiaJve Forcing SSP 1 Different Reference SSPs Nakicenovic #
59 Possible SSP and Stabilization Level Scheme Baseline & StabilizasJon RadiaJve Forcing SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 1 SSP 1 SSP 2 Different Reference SSPs Nakicenovic #
60 Possible SSP and Stabilization Level Scheme Baseline & StabilizasJon RadiaJve Forcing SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 1 SSP 1 SSP 2 Different Reference SSPs Nakicenovic #
61 Possible SSP and Stabilization Level Scheme Baseline & StabilizasJon RadiaJve Forcing SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 1 SSP 1 SSP 2 Different Reference SSPs Nakicenovic #
62 Possible SSP and Stabilization Level Scheme Baseline & StabilizasJon RadiaJve Forcing SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 1 SSP SSP 21 SSP SSP 32 SSP SSP 4 3 SSP 4 SSP SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 1 SSP 1 SSP 2 Different Reference SSPs Nakicenovic #
63 Possible SSP and Stabilization Level Scheme Baseline & StabilizasJon RadiaJve Forcing Different Reference SSPs Nakicenovic #
64 Possible SSP and Stabilization Level Scheme Tier 1: 4 Illustrative (Marker) Scenarios Tier 2 Tier 3 Baseline & StabilizasJon RadiaJve Forcing Different Reference SSPs Nakicenovic #
65 Preparing SSPs for IPCC Source: From IPCC Secretary, 2011
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