Development, Technologies and Stabilization

Transcription

1 Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization GTSP Technical Review May 23, 2007 JGCRI, College Park, MD USA P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

2 Agenda Drivers of Energy and Emissions Base Case Projections Low Carbon Society (with Sustainable Development) Stabilization (with Carbon Interventions)

3 Drivers of Energy and Emissions and Base Case Projections

4 Population and GDP 1,800 $45 1,600 $40 Billions 1,400 1,200 1, $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 Thousand $/capita (2000$) Population GDP/Capita $10 $5 $0

5 Demographic Transitions in India Age group Male Population in Female Age group Male 2010 Population Projection for 2010 Female Population (million) Population (million) Age group Male Population Projection for 2030 Female Age group Male Population Projection for Female Population (million) Population (million)

6 Demographic Transitions in India: Urban/Rural Urban & Rural population of India 90 Rural Urban % Share Year

7 Population and Working Age Population Population (Million) Annual Growth Rate of Population % 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 2.22% 2.15% 1.67% 1.02% 0.47% % Labor Supply Annual Growth Rate of Labor Supply % 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 2.30% 2.74% 2.54% 1.46% 0.70% %

8 Human Capital R&D Technology Other Drivers of Growth Government Expenditure in Education Private Expenditure in Education Urban / Rural & Gender-wise Education Expenditure (Net) Migration by Labor Classes (intra & inter county) Government/ Private Expenditure Knowledge Flows Backbones (infrastructures) Learning, transfers, deployment Saving/ Investments Governance Social Security Lifestyles, Behaviors Institutions Laws Policies Savings Rate ??

9 India s s Economic Growth: GDP Projections Very High Base Year 2005= CAGR A % B % C % D % CAGR A % B % C % D % High Medium 100 Low

10 Changing Structure of Energy Use 80% Percentage of Primary Energy Consumption 60% 40% 20% 0% Fuel Supply? Waste disposal? Safety? Nuclear How to transit to Modern Biomass? Food Security? Traditional Biomass En. Security: +Ve 2001 Coal Oil Domestic Resource: +ve Direct Employment: +ve Energy Security: -ve Foreign Exchange: -ve Geopolitical Risk: High Gas Foreign Exchange: -ve Hydro Regional water disputes? Indirect Benefits

11 Trillion Kwh/yr Electricity Wind; Solar; Hydro; Other renewable Nuclear Biomass Natural Gas Coal Oil

12 EJ/yr Renewables Nuclear Hydro Gas Coal Oil Primary Energy

13 Carbon Emission (by Fuel) GtC/yr Coal Natural Gas Oil

14 Low Carbon Future through Sustainable Development: An Analysis for India

15 Low Carbon Society (LCS) in Developing Country context? LCS is a Development Pathway which: a. facilitates achievement of the national socioeconomic objectives and targets, b. while contributing to the achievement of global objectives and targets for stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, c. in a cost-effective and sustainable manner.

16 Low Carbon Society (LCS) Scenario Drivers of India s LCS Scenario (550 ppmv equivalent) Carbon Emission Target (70% reduction over Base Case in 2050) Energy Device Efficiency Targets (Demand/ Supply-side) Dematerialization Building Materials and Design Reduce (demand), Recycle & Reuse (3R) Materials Infrastructure investments Avoid lock-ins Shift demand (e.g. transport modal split) R&D and Technology Transfer Leapfrog (to the efficiency frontier) Innovations (to shift the efficiency frontier) Planning & Governance Facilitate change in Lifestyles & Behaviors Institutions, Laws, Policies

17 Low Carbon Society: Scenario Development for India Key areas for interventions: Demographics Lower Population Growth (e.g. investment in women s education) Higher investment in social infrastructures (e.g. health, education) Conservation Efficient technology, Substitutions, Recycling, Pricing, Dematerialization City Planning Architecture/ Building Codes; Land use policies; Public Transport Infrastructure choices R&D, technology transfer and selective technology push Incentives for environmental industry Influencing consumer preferences/ behavior

18 How sustainable development policies influence LCS? E.g. Education, Employment and Productivity nexus Policies for public private partnership higher (public and private) investments in education Increases supply of education services Incentives for education for women and socially and economically backward sections enhances demand for education Women s education reduces fertility rates & this together with family planning campaigns lead to lower population (than in reference & some others cases) The increases in labor participation rates and enhanced skill profiles maintains labor supply and higher productivity in next few decades Rural development policies (including education, employment, infrastructure push and reduced risk for investments) break through the rural/ urban dualism (Likewise for other drivers, the sustainability scenario story differ)

19 Low Carbon Society Roadmap Innovations (APEIS/SDB) Technological Social/Institutional Management National Socio-economic Objectives and Targets Low Carbon Society Co-benefits Sustainability Aligning Markets Win/Win Options Shared Costs/Risks Long-term Vision Avoid Lock-ins Global Climate Change Objectives and Targets Modify Preferences Specifics of the roadmap would differ across countries. What is important is to communicate transparently the qualitative story and its quantification (i.e. modeling)

20 Carbon Emissions: Base vs. LCS Scenario for India India s Cumulative Carbon Emission from Mitigation Billion Ton of CO 2 Reference Scenario: LCS Scenario: 64.3 Cumulative Mitigation in LCS: 62.9 % Cumulative Mitigation in LCS: 49.5% % Mitigation in LCS in 2050: 70.0%

21 Mitigation in LCS Scenario for India Base Scenario Mitigation in LCS (in 2050) Electricity (Supply + T&D Efficiency) 745 Buildings (Materials/Design) 384 Million Ton of CO LCS Emission: 1217 (70% Mitigation target in 2050) Renewable Energy Device Efficiency Material substitutions Recycling Reduced Consumption Urban Planning Transport (Modal shift) Transport Infrastructure Total CO 2 Mitigation

22 Mitigation through dematerialization in LCS Scenario Dematerialization in LCS vis-à-vis Base Scenario is contributed by multiple direct and indirect policies, most of which belong to the policy packages relating to sustainable development. Change in building materials and design contribute significantly to dematerialization and energy efficiency in construction In addition, three other key contributors to mitigation through dematerialization are: Mitigation (MT CO 2 ) in 2050 Material Substitutions 207 Reduced Consumption 173 Recycling 90 Materials Demand in Base vs. LCS Steel Cement Base Base LCS LCS Fertilizer Paper Energy and carbon intensive materials - of which the substitutions and reduced consumption contribute most to mitigation in the LCS scenario - are steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizer and paper. Recycling reduces the energy and carbon intensity of the materials, besides delivering environmental co-benefits. Base LCS Base LCS

23 SO 2 Mitigation Co-benefits of LCS Scenario Joint Mitigation (Period ) Mitigation Regime Co-benefits SO 2 mitigation alone in Reference Scenario SO 2 Co-benefit in LCS Scenario Little carbon mitigation LCS policies generate benefits equivalent to 30% lower SO 2 in 2050 and cumulative saving in SO 2 Emissions Reduction equivalent to $11.2 billion over period

24 Modeling Climate Stabilization Induced Development Paths

25 Centralizatio n Indian Carbon Emissions Scenarios 1800 Carbon Emissions Indian Emissions Scenarios 1600 IA2: Reference Scenario Governance Decentralization IA1 Market Efficiency IB1 Integrated Sustainable Development Market integration IA2 Fragmented Hybrid Economy (Reference) IB2 Self Reliance Closed Economy CO 2 Emissions (MT) IA1: Market Efficiency IB1: LCS Scenario India s Total Carbon Emission in 21 st Century (Billion Ton CO 2 ) Reference (IA2) Scenario : 363 Market Efficiency (IA1) Scenario Sustainable Development (IB1) Scenario : 286 (79% of IA2) : 198 (55% of IA2)

26 Technologies in Low Carbon Scenarios: Long-term Conventional Technology Paths Synfuels, Gas hydrates, Nuclear fission Fuel cell vehicle: Carbon-free hydrogen Energy efficient appliances/ infrastrucutre Frozen Technology IA2 CO 2 Capture/ Storage, pipeline networks 5250 IB2 Nuclear Fusion, Backstops CO 2 Emissions (Million Ton) IA1 IA1T IB1 Information highways, High speed trains Advanced materials, Nanotechnology High share of renewable Energy Renewable Lifestyle changes, Energy Eco-friendly Technologies choices Substitution of transport by IT Dematerialization, material substitutions Sustainable habitats, Public amenities

27 Indian Emission Scenarios and Stabilization Carbon Emissions for Indian Scenarios 7 6 IA2 CO 2 Emissions (Billion Ton) IA1 IB1 India s Total Carbon Emission in 21 st Century (Billion Ton CO 2 ) Reference (IA2) Scenario : 363 Market Efficiency (IA1) Scenario Sustainable Development (IB1) Scenario : 286 (79% of IA2) : 198 (55% of IA2) 550 PPMV Global Regime (LCS India) : 140 (39% IA2) ppmv (LCS)

28 Stabilization to 2 O C from LCS Scenario Base Scenario Mitigation in LCS (in 2050) Electricity (Supply + T&D Efficiency) 745 Buildings (Materials/Design) 384 Million Ton of CO LCS Emission: C Stabilization: 1069 Renewable Energy Device Efficiency Material substitutions Recycling Reduced Consumption Urban Planning Transport (Modal shift) Transport Infrastructure CCS Total CO 2 Mitigation

29 Conclusions High Growth Asian Developing Economies require sophisticated representation of drivers in New Scenarios Base Case Projections for India will require significant mitigation even in low growth scenarios Low Carbon Society (LCS) scenario assuming technology/institutional innovations and win-win (co-benefit) opportunities can deliver substantial low cost mitigation Even low emissions scenarios (including LCS scenario) would require exclusive carbon mitigation interventions for stabilization (e.g. 2 O C or 450 ppmv)