!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'( = = = = = !"#$% ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH

Transcription

1 = = = = = 6 = 6!"#$% ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH Vol. 6 No. 6 November 21!" (21) !"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'(!!"#$%&'!"()*+,-./%& L!"#$%&'()*+,-=NMMMUN =!"#$%&'()*+,IPCC!"#$%&'()*+,,-./123RCPs RCPs!"#$%! 4! RCPsRCP6 RCP3-PD! IPCC RCPs!"#!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*+,-. 2!"#$%&'()*+,-.%/ !!"!"#$%!"X16 ==!"#A = ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./1!"#$%&'()IPCC!"# x1z!"#$%&'( 2 IPCC!"#$%&'!"#$%& SRES!"IPCC!"#$%!"#$ x1j2z SRES!"#!"#$%&'()*+,$-./!"#$%&'()*+,-./&'!"#!"#!$%!"#$%&'!"#$%&'(!"#$%&IPCC!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%!"#$%&' x3j5z IPCC!"#$%&'()*representative concentration pathwaysrcps!!"#$%&'!"#$%& RCPs!"#$%&'()*+ x3j4z ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./1!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'!"#$%!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*+,-.*+/!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*#$+,-!!"#$!"#$%&'() x4j5z!"#!"#$%&' RCPs!"#$%&'()*+'*,!!"#$%&'()*+,-$./12!= = !!"#$%27BAC3A12-1!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&! 1982!"!"#$%&'()*+,-#$*./123 chenmp@ami.ac.cn!! lined@ami.ac.cn 436 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 21, 6 (6): 436J442

2 6!"!"#$%&'()*+,-./1234( N==o`më!"#$%&'!! ==== Moss x3z!rcps!"!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!"#$!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*rcps!!"#$%&!"#$%! 3!1 x3i5z 1)!"#$%&'(!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*!"#$!"#$%!!"#$%&12)!"#$%&!"#!"#$%&'()*+,- 3)!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&'!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*Integrated Assessment ModelsIAMs!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,- ==== IPCC!"#$%&' 4 RCPs RCP6 RCP3-PD! 4IAMs!"#$%&'()*!!"!"#$!"#$%&' /!"# 1 x6j7z CO 2!" 9!"#$%&'!"# SRES!A2!"#$%&'!"# (IAMs)!! (CMs)!! (CMs)!"#$ (RCPs)!"#$!"#!"# [3, 5] 1!"#$%&'!"#$ (IAMs)!"#$%&'()*!"# RCPs!!"#$%&'()CMs!"#climate modelings Fig. 1 Comparison of approaches to the development of [3, 5] global scenarios A1FI RCP6!"#$%&!"# RCP6RCP3-PD CO 2!"#$ 1!"#$%&! 21!"#$%&'(!"#2!"#$!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+,-./1!"#$%&'()*+,-./ x 8z IPCC RCPs!"!"#$%&'(!"#!" x9j11z 1=RCPs!!"#$% x6j7] Table 1 Types of RCPs, models, their development teams, and projected temperature increases [6J7]!!"#$!!"#$ N 21!" O 21 >8.5 W/m 2 21 >137 1 J6 CO 2 MESSAGE (IIASA) 4.6 ~ 1.3 /6.9 RCP6 21!"# 6 W/m 2 21!"# 85 1 J6 CO 2!"#!" AIM (NIES) 3.2 ~ 7.2/4.8 21!" 21!"# 65 1 J6!"# 4.5 W/m 2 CO 2!" MiniCAM (PNNL) 2.4 ~ 5.5/3.6 RCP3-PD 3) 21!" 3 W/m 2 21!" 49 1 J6!"#$ IMAGE (NMP) 1.6 ~ 3.6/2.4!"# CO 2!"#$ 1) MESSAGE!"#$%&'()*+,-International Institute for Applied System AnalysisIIASA!"#$%&'()*+ Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and Their General Environmental ImpactAIM!"#$%&'()National Institute of Environmental StudiesNIES!"#$%&Asia-Pacific Integrated ModelMiniCAM!"#$%&!'()*Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryPNNL!"#$%&'(Mini-Climate Assessment ModelIMAGE!"#$%&Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyNMP!"#$%&'()*Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment2) 21!"#$%&'()*!"# T= S ln (x!"#z/28)/ln2 S !"#$!"# x12j14z 3) RCP3- PD RCP2.9!"!"#$%&'( Adv. Clim. Change Res., 21, 6 (6): 436J

3 = = = = =!"#$% 438 =21 O== o`më!"#$% ====IPCC!2 21 3!"# CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O!"!"#$%&'()*!3!"#$%&'24!"#!!"#$%&27!"# 3!"#$%&'(21 22!"!"#$%&'()*+24!"#$!"#$%&'() 55 1 J6 CO W/m ====!21 CO 2!"#$% J.6 Pg C CO 2!" J J J6 IPCC!"#$%&'( x14z 2 CO 2!"# 7.6 Pg C 21!"#$%&'( 4!" 4!21 CO 2! 2 44%!"#$!"# 2!" CO 2!"#$ 11.5 Pg C!"#$%& 2! 2! 25 CO 2!" 58%21! CO 2!"#$%&'!"# 2!"#$5%95%!"# x8z! 2!" 21!"#$%&'() 4 1 J6 CO 2!"#$2 W/m 2!"#$% 3 W/m 2x7z ====4!"RCPs!"#$%!" CO 2 /Pg C CH 4 /Tg N 2 O /Tg (a) (b) (c) RCPs!"# CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O Fig. 2 Global CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O emissions under different RCP scenarios!"# /1 J6 CO ! /(W/m 2 ) (a) (b) RCPs!"#$%&'()*+, Fig. 3 Global greenhouse gases concentrations and radiation forcing under different RCP scenarios = 25!" =!"#$ OECD!" 19 2!"#$ 1!"#$%&!' 438 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 21, 6 (6): 436J442

4 6!"!"#$%&'()*+,-./1234( CO 2 /Pg C CO 2 /Pg C (a)! 5 (b)!" RCPs!"#$%!&'#$( CO 2 Fig. 4 CO 2 emissions in developed and developing countries under different RCP scenarios CO 2!"!!"#!"#$%&'()*21!"2!" 84% 3.8! 25 21!"# 2 25% 76%!"# 25 21!" 2!" 73% 32%! 25 21!"# 2 82% 111%!"# CO 2 2!" 46%14%!2 CO 2!"#$%&'()*!!"#$2521!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,- 2521!"#$2%5%!" 25 21!" 18% 35%!" 2.7 Pg C 8.4 Pg C!" P== o`më!"#$% ==== 2!"#!"!"#$%&'()*+,!"!!!!"#$!"#$%CCS!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+,-./123 x14j15z!!!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,sres- B2 25%!"#$%&'()*+, EJ!"#$79 x15z!!25!"#$%&'gdp1.7%21 GDP.8%25 21!"#$!"#$%&'() GDP 3% 5% x12i15z!"#$%&'()*+),-./*!"#$!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'!"#$% x15z ====!!"#$%&'"()*+"!"#!!"#$% 21!"#$%&'()*+,-./ 1% x12z!25 21!"#$%& GDP.4%.3%26!"#$%& GDP.5%25!"#$%!"#$21!"#$%&'( GDP.4% x12i16z!" 25!"#$%!"&'()* GDP 1.3%3.%21!.5%4.4% x12i15j16z Q==o`më!"#$%&'()$ ==== !"#$%&'!"#$% 15!"#COP15!"#$%!!"#$%!"#$%&'()* 2 x16z!"#$%&'()*+,-./ IPCC RCPs!" Adv. Clim. Change Res., 21, 6 (6): 436J

5 = = = = =!"#$% 44 =21 2!"#$%&! CO 2!"#$% 9.8 Pg C3.2 Pg C J.5 Pg C!"#$!"#$%&'() ====!"#2!"#$%&'!!"#$%&%'()*+,-!"!"#$%&'#()*+,-./12!"#$%&'()*+,27 CO 2!"#$%&!" CO 2!"# x17z!"#$%1.5!"!"!"#$%$&1.25!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*!"#$!" CO 2!"#$%&'( x18z!"#$%&2225!"#$ CO 2!"#2.63. Pg C Pg C!"#$%&'()*2225 CO 2!"#$% 2.2 Pg C Pg C! 22 25!! 22% 43%47%!"#$% 21 25!"#$% 3!" 25CO 2!"#$%&'(GDP 7% x18j21z ====!"#$%&'()"#*+,-./ 4% !" #$!" RCPs!"#$%&'( 5 x22z!"#$%22 CO 2!"#$%2.6 Pg C!"#!"#$25 CO 2!"#$ 1.1 Pg C!25!"#$7%76%!"#$%&25%3% 22! 2.7 Pg C!"#$ 25!"#$%&' 3.5 Pg C!"#$ 25!"#$%&'()*!"!"#!"#$%&'()*+, 22!"#$!!"#$%&'( 22!"GDPCO %45% 22!"#$%& 8% 1% 22! CO 2!" Pg C Pg C!!"#$%&'()*+,-. 1 8%!"!!"#$%&' CO 2!25%!"#$%&'() 1 8%!"# 22!!"#$%&'()*+,-. CO 2 /Pg C RCPs!"#$% CO 2 Fig. 5 Possible CO 2 emissions in China under different RCP scenarios ====!"#!"#$%&'()*+!"#$ 2!"#$%&'(!22!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'()*+,-./123!"#$!"#$22!"#!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!"#!"#$%&!"#$!"!"#$%&'()*!!"#$%& R=== IPCC!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&'()*+,-./,-1!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&!"#$%&'(!"#$%!" 2!"#$%&!!"#$%&'()*+,- 2!"#$%&'()*+, 44 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 21, 6 (6): 436J442

6 6!"!"#$%&'()*+,-./1234(56 441!"# 22!"#!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'(!"#$%!"#$!"#$%& 2!"!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+! 22!"#$%&'()*+,! [1] IPCC. IPCC expert meeting report on emission scenarios [R]. Washington DC, 12J14 January, [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [1] IPCC. Climate change 27: synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M]. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC, 27: 14 Moss R, Edmonds J, Hibbard K, et al. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment [J]. Nature, 29, 463: 747J 756,.!"#$ %&'()*+,-.(/ [J].!"#, 28, 41 (6): 17J177.!"#$%&'() *+,-= [R].!" :!"!"#$%,, 29: 14J15 van Vuuren D P, Johannes F, Lamarque J F, et al. Work plan for data exchange between the integrated assessment and climate modeling community in support of Phase- of scenario analysis for climate change assessment (representative community pathways) [R]. IPCC, Moss R, Babiker M, Brinkman S, et al. Towards new scenarios for analysis of emissions, climate change, impacts, and response strategies [R]. Noordwijkerhout, the Netherlands: IPCC, 27: Weyant J, Azar C, Kainuma M, et al. Report of 2.6 versus 2.9 watts/m2 RCPP evaluation panel [R]. Geneva: IPCC, 29: meetings/session3/inf6.pdf Riahi K, Nakicenovic N. Greenhouse gases - integrated assessment [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 27, 74 (7): 234 Clarke L E, Edmonds J A, Jacoby H D, et al. Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations [R]. Sub-report 2.1A of synthesis and assessment product 2.1 by the US Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research, Washington, DC, 27: 154 [11] van Vuuren D P, Eickhout B, Lucas P L, et al. Long-term multi-gas scenarios to stabilise radiative forcing: exploring costs and benefits within an integrated assessment framework [J]. Multigas Mitigation and Climate Policy: the Energy Journal Special Issue, 26, 3: 21J234 [12] van Vuuren D P, den Elzen M G J, Lucas P L, et al. Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs [J]. Climatic Change, 27, 81 (2):119J159 [13] IPCC. Climate change 27: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 27 [14] Fisher B, Nakicenovic N, Alfsen K, et al. Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context [M]// IPCC. Climate change 27: mitigation. Contribution of working group III to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 27 [15] Rao S, Riahi K, Cho C, et al. IMAGE and MESSAGE scenarios limiting GHG concentrations to low levels [R]. Geneva: IPCC, 28: [16] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Copenhagen accord [R]. Copenhagen, 29 [17] Marland G, Boden T A, Andres R J. Global, regional, and national fossil fuel CO 2 emissions [M]// Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy. Trends: a compendium of data on global change. Oak Ridge, Tenn, USA, [18]!"#$%,!"#. 29/21!"#$%W!"#$%&'()*+, [R]. :!"#$% I!"#$%&', 21: 154 [19]!"#$%&'()*+,-./. 25!"# W=!"#$%&'() [M]. :!", 29: 168 [2],, I=. 25!"# $%&' [J].!, 29, 14 (6): 1J17 [21] OECD/IEA. World energy outlook 29 [M]. Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) & International Energy Agency (IEA), 29: 691 [22],,,.! 29!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*=[J].! :!, 29, 39 (1): 1339J1346 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 21, 6 (6): 436J

7 = = = = =!"#$% 442 =21 Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Under Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios and Challenges to China Chen Minpeng, Lin Erda (Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/ Key Laboratory of Agro-Environment and Climate Change, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 181, China) Abstract: This paper overviews the new set of integrated scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCPs), provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the fifth assessment process, analyzes the advantages of new approaches to scenarios development, and depicts the characteristics of the identified four RCPs (, RCP6, and RCP3-PD). By using the RCPs database updated by IPCC, the paper analyzes the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, regional emissions and emission abatement costs under the high, intermediaterange and low RCP scenarios. More importantly, the paper investigates the relationship between low RCP and keeping the global temperature rise below 2, identifies the challenges brought to China, and presents China s countermeasures for addressing the challenges. Key words: greenhouse gas (GHG); mitigation; representative concentration pathways (RCPs); scenario OT!"#$%$&'()*!" ==== !!"#$%&!"27!"#$%$&'( )$*+!" ====!"#$%&'()*!"#"$%!"#$%&'(#)*!"#$%!"#$% ====!"!"#$%&'()!""!"!"#$%&$%'()*+,-.!"#$%&$'(!"#$%&''&()!"!"#$%&'()*!" ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./123!"#$!!"#$%&'!()*+!"!"#$%&!"!"#!"#$%"&'()*!"#$%&'!"#"$%&'()!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&!"#$!!"#$%!"#$%&'()*15!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()(*!"#$%&'()*+,-./12!!"!"!"#"$ ====3!"!"#15!"#$% 1!"#N!"# 2! 4!"# 3!"#!"#$%&' 41!"#$%&'()*+,-.)/12!"#$%&'()*!!!"#$%&'()!"#$%&!"#$!"#$%&== 442 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 21, 6 (6): 436J442