Emission trends and mitigation options for air pollutants in East Asia

Transcription

1 Emission trends and mitigation options for air pollutants in East Asia S. X. Wang 1,2, B. Zhao 1, S. Y. Cai 1, Z. Klimont 3, T. Morikawa 4, J.-H. Woo 5, Y. Kim 5, J. M. Hao 1,2 [1] School of Environment, and State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing , China [2] State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing , China [3] International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria [4] Japan Automobile Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan [5] Department of Advanced Technology Fusion, Konkuk University, Seoul, South Korea

2 Outline Introduction Recent air pollutant emission trends Future emission scenarios for air pollutants Comparison with other studies Conclusions and policy implications

3 Large and increasing air pollutant emissions in East Asia East Asia contribute a large share of global emissions East Asia The rest world NOx emissions in China: 5.5%-7% annual growth rate ( ) 36% 29% 36% SO2 emissions NOx emissions PM2.5 emissions Cofala et al., 2012 Zhang et al., 2012 Health impact Haze Global change Long range transport

4 Existing studies on future emission trends Previous projections: Most projections (Streets and Waldhoff, 2000; Klimont et al., 2001; Cofala et al., 2007; Ohara et al., 2007; Klimont et al., 2009; Xing et al., 2011) were based on the emissions for the year 2005 or earlier. Cofala et al. (2012) projected the emissions of SO 2, NO X and PM 2.5, but just considers the effects of energy scenarios Deficiencies of previous projections: Previous projections underestimated China s economic growth experienced in the last decade, and did not anticipate new emission control policies under China s 12 th Five Year Plan (for ), nor a number of emission standards released after It is essential to consider a full range of relevant pollutants and scenarios at different stringency levels from the business-asusual case to the maximum feasible reduction case. The roles of energy-saving measures and end-of-pipe control measures in integrated control policies have been insufficiently studied.

5 Outline Introduction Recent air pollutant emission trends Future emission scenarios for air pollutants Comparison with other studies Conclusions and policy implications

6 Method and data sources for emission estimation Mainland China: estimated using an emission factor method by Tsinghua University; a unit-based inventory was developed for power plants, cement plants, and iron & steel plants. Japan: consistent with the JATOP Emission Inventory-Data Base (JEI-DB), developed by the Japan Petroleum Energy Center (JPEC); special attention is paid to on-road vehicle emissions by taking account of the effect of accumulated mileage, ignition, temperature, and humidity on emission factors. South Korea: estimated by the National Institute of Environmental Research (NIER); the emissions of large point sources are estimated based on CEMS observation for , and we replace pre-2007 emissions from those stacks with values extrapolated from CEMS-based estimates to ensure continuity. North Korea, Mongolia, Hong Kong & Macao (China), and Taiwan (China): using the data of Gains-Asia model of IIASA

7 Recent emission trends in East Asia 25% -15% 15% An integrated effect of -15% the decrease of emissions from 34% transportation and domestic combustion, and the increase of emissions from industrial process (46% increase) and solvent use (102% increase) -11% -12% 21% Attributable to the large Driven by the rapid scale installation of flue decrease of emissions gas desulfurization (FGD) from power plants and for power plants cement industry (43%- 47% reduction) NO X SO 2 PM 2.5 NMVOC

8 Outline Introduction Recent air pollutant emission trends Future emission scenarios for air pollutants Comparison with other studies Conclusions and policy implications

9 Definition of energy scenarios and emission scenarios Energy Scenario Business as Usual (BAU) Alternative Policy Scenario (PC) Energy Scenario Definition Current policies and compliance (as of the end of 2010) are assumed. New energy-saving policies are released and enforced more stringently, including life style changes, structural adjustment and energy efficiency improvement. End-of-pipe Control Strategy Baseline ([0]) Progressive ([1]) Maximum Feasible Reduction ([2]) Baseline ([0]) Progressive ([1]) Maximum Feasible Reduction ([2]) End-of-pipe Control Strategy Definition Current policies and current implementation status (as of the end of 2010). New pollution control policies are implemented in China, representing progressive approach towards future environmental policies. For the other countries in East Asia, the assumptions of the strategy [1] are exactly the same as strategy [0]. Technically feasible control technologies would be fully applied by See the descriptions above. See the descriptions above. See the descriptions above. Emission scenario BAU[0] BAU[1] BAU[2] PC[0] PC[1] PC[2]

10 Scenarios for countries other than China Our BAU and PC scenarios are consistent with the energy pathways of the reference and 450-ppm scenarios in Shindell et al. (2012), and UNEP and WMO (2011). The reference scenario is based on current energy and climate-related policies, the 450-ppm scenario explores the global energy consumption if countries take coordinated action to restrict the global temperature increase to 2ºC. Our control strategies [0] and [2] are consistent with the control strategies of the reference scenario and the maximum feasible reduction scenario in UNEP and WMO (2011), respectively. The control strategy [1] has the same assumptions as control strategy [0].

11 Methodology for future projection Energy scenarios Technology distribution Stocks; share of each technology Driving forces Emission factor database Energy consumption Energy technology database Energy consumption per unit; service output per unit Control technology database Removal rate Retrofit ratio Energy service demand Emissions Final emissions End-of-pipe control strategy

12 Driving forces and service demand Items BAU PC GDP (2005 price)/10 12 CHY Population/billion Urbanization rate/% Power generation/twh Crude steel production/mt Cement production/mt Urban residential building area per capita/m Rural residential building area per capita/m Vehicle population per 1000 persons

13 Power plants Structural adjustment Cement industry Cooking & hot water (urban) Cooking & hot water (rural)

14 Projected energy consumption 51% 21% 64% 27% Industry Transportation Coal Other renewable and nuclear % 9.0% 2030_BAU 41% 16.5% 2030_PC 41% 14.3% % 7.5% 2030_BAU 60% 8.9% 2030_PC 52% 15.8%

15 Application of NO X control technologies 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Coal-fired power plants LNB+SCR LNB+SNCR LNB NOC 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Natural gas power plants LNB+SCR LNB+SNCR LNB NOC 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Precalcined cement kiln LNB+SCR LNB+SNCR LNB NOC 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sintering SCR SNCR NOC 15

16 Application of NMVOC removal technologies for selected sources

17 BAU[0]/PC[0] Assumptions for transportation sector BAU[1]/PC[1]/BAU[2]/PC[2] Besides the implementation of new vehicle standards, BAU[2]/PC[2] assumes old vehicles with high emissions are phased out quickly through forcible measures and economic subsidies.

18 Future trends of NO X and SO 2 emissions 28% 28% 36% 15% 21% 24% 36% 25% 12% 27%

19 Future trends of PM 2.5 and NMVOC emissions -7% 28% 23% 25% 23% 24% 15% 23% 26% 35%

20 Outline Introduction Recent air pollutant emission trends Future emission scenarios for air pollutants Comparison with other studies Conclusions and policy implications

21 Comparison with other studies NO X emissions (Mt) SO 2 emissions (Mt) This study-bau[0] This study-bau[1] This study-bau[2] NO This study-pc[0] X This study-pc[1] This study-pc[2] Amann et al. (2008)-current legislation Amann et al. (2008)-advanced control technology Amann et al. (2008)-optimized Ohara et al. (2007)-policy failure Ohara et al. (2007)-best guess Ohara et al. (2007)-optimistic Xing et al. (2011)-current legislation and implementation Xing et al. (2011)-improved energy efficiency and current environmental legislation Xing et al. (2011)-improved energy efficiency and better implementation of environmental policy Xing et al. (2011)-improved energy efficiency and strict environmental legislation Cofala et al. (2007)-current legislation Cofala et al. (2007)-maximum feasible reduction Cofala et al. (2012)-current policy Cofala et al. (2012)-new policy Cofala et al. (2012)-high energy efficiency Cofala et al. (2012)-450 ppm Zhao et al. (2013d) Kurokawa et al. (2013) SO 2 This study-bau[0] This study-bau[1] This study-bau[2] This study-pc[0] This study-pc[1] This study-pc[2] Amann et al. (2008)-current legislation Amann et al. (2008)-advanced control technology Amann et al. (2008)-optimized Ohara et al. (2007)-policy failure Ohara et al. (2007)-best guess Ohara et al. (2007)-optimistic Xing et al. (2011)-current legislation and implementation Xing et al. (2011)-improved energy efficiency and current environmental legislation Xing et al. (2011)-improved energy efficiency and better implementation of environmental policy Xing et al. (2011)-improved energy efficiency and strict environmental legislation Cofala et al. (2007)-current legislation Cofala et al. (2007)-maximum feasible reduction Cofala et al. (2012)-current policy Cofala et al. (2012)-new policy Cofala et al. (2012)-high energy efficiency Cofala et al. (2012)-450 ppm Zhao et al. (2013d) Kurokawa et al. (2013) Lu et al. (2011) Klimont et al. (2013)

22 PM 10 emissions (Mt) PM 2.5 emissions (Mt) NMVOC emissions (Mt) This study-bau[0] This study-bau[1] This study-bau[2] This study-pc[0] This study-pc[1] This study-pc[2] Xing et al. (2011)-current legislation and implementation Xing et al. (2011)-improved energy efficiency and current environmental legislation Xing et al. (2011)-improved energy efficiency and better implementation of environmental policy Xing et al. (2011)-improved energy efficiency and strict environmental legislation Zhao et al. (2013d) Kurokawa et al. (2013) This study-bau[0] This study-bau[1] This study-bau[2] This study-pc[0] This study-pc[1] This study-pc[2] Amann et al. (2008)-current legislation Amann et al. (2008)-advanced control technology Amann et al. (2008)-optimized Cofala et al. (2012)-current policy Cofala et al. (2012)-new policy Cofala et al. (2012)-high energy efficiency Cofala et al. (2012)-450 ppm Zhao et al. (2013d) Kurokawa et al. (2013) This study-bau[0] This study-bau[1] This study-bau[2] This study-pc[0] This study-pc[1] This study-pc[2] Ohara et al. (2007)-policy failure Ohara et al. (2007)-best guess Ohara et al. (2007)-optimistic Xing et al. (2011)-current legislation and implementation PM 10 PM 2.5 NMVOC Xing et al. (2011)-improved energy efficiency and strict environmental legislation Wei et al. (2011)-current legislation Wei et al. (2011)-advanced control measures Kurokawa et al. (2013)

23 Outline Introduction Recent air pollutant emission trends Future emission scenarios for air pollutants Comparison with other studies Conclusions and policy implications

24 Conclusions During , the emissions of SO 2 and PM 2.5 in East Asia decreased by 15% and 11%, respectively. In contrast, the emissions of NO X and NMVOC increased by 25% and 15% during the same period. Under current legislation and current implementation status (BAU[0] scenario), NO X, SO 2, and NMVOC emissions in East Asia are estimated to increase by about one quarter by 2030 from the 2010 levels, while PM 2.5 emissions are expected to decrease by 7%. Assuming enforcement of new energy-saving policies, emissions of NO X, SO 2, PM 2.5 and NMVOC in East Asia are expected to decrease by 28%, 36%, 28%, and 15%, respectively, compared with the baseline case. The full implementation of best available technologies could reduce the emissions of NO X, SO 2, and PM 2.5 in East Asia to only about one quarter and NMVOC to one third of the levels of the baseline projection.

25 Policy implications The successful implementation of the control policies set in China s 12 th Five Year Plan, the recently released emission stardards for various industrial sources, and slowly strengthened control measures after 2015 could reduce China s emissions of NO X, SO 2, and PM 2.5 significantly (16-26% lower than the 2010 levels by 2020, and even lower by 2030). It is essential to support and monitor the progress of implementation of these legislations. The contributions of advanced energy saving measures to the reduction of SO 2 and PM 2.5 emissions exceeds those of progressive end-of-pipe control measures by The energy saving measures would play an essential role for further reduction of air pollutant emissions. The simultaneous enforcement of energy saving measures and progressive end-of-pipe control measures (mainly assuming enforement of European standards) could reduce 38% of the total NMVOC emissions from the levels of baseline projection. Even though, large reduction potential still remains. Additional policies to reduce NMVOC emissions efficiently and effectively warrant careful consideration.

26 Thank you for your attention! Related publications: Zhao, B., Wang, S. X., Xu, J. Y., Fu, K., Klimont, Z., Hao, J. M., He, K. B., Cofala, J., and Amann, M Nox emissions in china: Historical trends and future perspectives. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 13: Wang, S. X., Zhao, B., Cai, S. Y., Klimont, Z., Nielsen, C. P., Morikawa, T., Woo, J. H., Kim, Y., Fu, X., Xu, J. Y., Hao, J. M., and He, K. B Emission trends and mitigation options for air pollutants in east Asia. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 14 (accepted)