Mitigation and Adaptation
|
|
- Dorothy Todd
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer Mitigation and Adaptation Our Common Future Hannover, 4th November 2010 Volkswagen Stiftung
2 Tipping Points in the Earth System T. M. Lenton & H. J. Schellnhuber (Nature Reports Climate Change, 2007) 2
3 Burning Embers Year 2100 range (IPCC 2007) Potential policy-relevant tipping elements that could be triggered by global warming this century, with shading indicating their uncertain thresholds. For each threshold, the transition from white to yellow indicates a lower bound on its proximity, and the transition from yellow to red, an upper bound. The degree of uncertainty is represented by the spread of the colour transition. T. M. Lenton & H. J. Schellnhuber (Nature Reports Climate Change, 2007)
4 World Map of Wealth Capital stock per person very low low medium high very high Source: Füssel (2007) 4
5 World Map of Carbon Debt Carbon emissions per person from fossil fuel burning ( ) very low low medium high very high Source: Füssel (2007) 5
6 Carbon Debt and Wealth 10 4 P: Fossil CO 2 emissions (kg C per person and year) Ethiopia India Bangladesh China Egypt South Africa Brazil Russia Mexico United States Germany France Fitting line: ln P=0.987 ln K+c Japan K: Capital stock (US$2000 per person) Source: Füssel (2007) 6
7 The Economics of Atmospheric Stabilisation 3 stabilisation targets with different probabilities to reach the 2 target: 550ppm-eq, 450ppm-eq, 400ppm-eq Energy-related CO 2 emissions Baseline 550ppm-eq 450ppm-eq 400ppm-eq Negative emissions ~15% prob. ~50% prob. ~75% prob. Year Knopf, Edenhofer et al. (2009) 7
8 The Great Transformation Primary Energy Consumption [EJ] REMIND-R, ADAM 450ppm-eq, 4/6/2009, Steckel/Knopf Negative CO 2 emissions CO 2 emissions Based on IEA Data ( ) and REMIND-R results for 450ppm-eq (ADAM); Graphic by Steckel/Knopf (PIK) 8
9 Technology Options for Low Stabilisation 550ppm-eq high biomass potential with all options no nuclear beyond baseline low biomass potential no CCS no renewables beyond baseline 400ppm-eq xx xx xxx Knopf, Edenhofer et al. (2009) 400 ppm neither achievable without CCS nor without an extension of renewables Biomass potential dominates the mitigation costs of low stabilisation Nuclear is not important beyond its (high) use in the baseline 9
10 Copenhagen Pledges Not Enough for 2 C Rogelj, Meinshausen et al
11 Source: IMF International Commodities Database 11
12 Renaissance of Coal 12
13 Development Policy Global Deal Effectiveness Efficiency Equity 13 Limiting and Trading of CO2 Climate-friendly Technologies Avoided Deforestation Adaptation
14 Development Policy Global Deal Effectiveness Efficiency Equity 14 Limiting and Trading of CO2 Climate-friendly Technologies Avoided Deforestation Adaptation
15 The Supply-side of Global Warming 2000 Gas Oil Coal Biomass + CCS Carbon stocks (GtC) I n t h e g r o u n d I n t h e a t m o s p h e r e Conventional reserves Unconventional reserves Conventional resources Unconventional resources Cumulative historic use Projected use (400ppm) Coal+CCS (400ppm) Biomass+CCS (400ppm) Additional projected use (BAU) Cumulative historic carbon consumption ( ), estimated carbon stocks in the ground, and estimated future consumption ( ) for business-as-usual (BAU) and ambitious 400-ppm-CO 2 -eq. scenario Source: Kalkuhl, Edenhofer and Lessmann,
16 Atmosphere as a Global Common Resource Extraction > GtC Atmosphere as a limited resource ~ 230 GtC Atmosphere is a scarce resource fossil carbon is not Economic approach to deal with scarcity in an efficient way: Establish prices on scarcities How to determine scarcity price on carbon? Assigning property rights according to the scarcity of the atmosphere Distributing the emission rights according to principles of fairness and justice 16
17 Allocation of Emission Rights USA Japan Europe Russia Middle East Latin America Asia (Others) China India Sub-Sahara Africa Rest of the World World Per capita Per GDP C&C: Contraction & Convergence C&C with histor. Responsibility CDC: Common but Differentiated Convergence Consumption losses [%] gains losses Knopf et al
18 Development Policy Global Deal Effectiveness Efficiency Equity 18 Limiting and Trading of CO2 Climate-friendly Technologies Avoided Deforestation Adaptation
19 R&D-Investment in Energy Technologies Source: Updated version of IPCC (2007), AR4 19
20 New Storage Technologies Andasol I, Spain Andasol I, Spain 20
21 Development Policy Global Deal Effectiveness Efficiency Equity 21 Limiting and Trading of CO2 Climate-friendly Technologies Avoided Deforestation Adaptation
22 Reducing Deforestation: Fossil vs. LUCF CO 2 Emissions CO 2 emissions per person and year, CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production, and including land use change (kg C per person and year from ) Emissions per year from fossil fuel combustion and cement production Ratio Emissions per year from land use change 22
23 Cancun - Better REDD than dead? 23
24 Agriculture versus Forest Protection $ $ Demand Demand Food, Bioenergy Forests Agriculture and forest protection compete for scarce land Optimal allocation of available land Agricultural land Forests Available Land 24
25 Agriculture versus Forest Protection Demand Food, Bioenergy Demand $ $ Forests REDD protects forests REDD Agricultural land Available Land Forests 25
26 Source: IMF; FAO International Commodity Prices 26
27 Source: BP Statistical Energy Review; WRI
28 Agriculture versus Forest Protection $ Demand Demand $ Food, Bioenergy Forests Agriculture prices Rising agricultural prices (oil price, food, bioenergy) counter the effect of REDD programs Higher prices for forest protection! Agricultural land Forests Available Land 28
29 Supposed Effects Costs of REDD are underestimated Proposed fund solutions would have to stabilize the price on a high level to compensate the effects of rising oil prices. This is politically unlikely Including forests into fragmented emission trading systems can thus lead to higher deforestation rates than a comprehensive fund approach 29
30 Development Policy Global Deal Effectiveness Efficiency Equity 30 Limiting and Trading of CO2 Climate-friendly Technologies Avoided Deforestation Adaptation
31 Agricultural Productivity Change of agricultural production (all crops) in percent due to yield changes as a result of climate change between 1990 and 2050 Source: Müller et al
32 Development Policy Global Deal Effectiveness Efficiency Equity 32 Limiting and Trading of CO2 Climate-friendly Technologies Avoided Deforestation Adaptation
33 Allocation of Emission Rights USA Japan Europe Russia Middle East Latin America Asia (Others) China India Sub-Sahara Africa Rest of the World World Per capita Per GDP C&C: Contraction & Convergence C&C with histor. Responsibility CDC: Common but Differentiated Convergence Consumption losses [%] gains losses Knopf et al
34 Development Policy Global Deal Effectiveness Efficiency Equity 34 Limiting and Trading of CO2 Climate-friendly Technologies Avoided Deforestation Adaptation
35 Book Cover 35
On the Economics of Climate Change
On the Economics of Climate Change Science & Pretzels Potsdam, 22 February 2012 Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer The Preindustrial Earth System A Sketch Atmosphere Fossil Resources (Coal, Oil, Gas) Land Ocean
More informationEvaluation of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and beyond
Evaluation of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and beyond 29 November 2010 EU paviljon, Cancun Michel den Elzen A. Evaluation of the Copenhagen Accord pledges Context Work funded by: European Commission (ENTEC
More informationWhat science tells us about global emission pathways and the below 2 C target and how to assess INDC submissions
Clima East International climate negotiations workshop Riga, Latvia, 25-26 June 2015 What science tells us about global emission pathways and the below 2 C target and how to assess INDC submissions Michel
More informationAdapt or Surrender? The Challenges of Climate Change for Humanitarian Action. June 2008
Adapt or Surrender? The Challenges of Climate Change for Humanitarian Action June 2008 E3G Third Generation Mission: To accelerate the transition to sustainable development Build on success of 2 nd Generation
More informationWWF IPCC WG3 Key Findings
WWF IPCC WG3 Key Findings April 2014 The world should more than triple investments in sustainable, safe lowcarbon energy sources (like renewable energy) as the main measure to mitigate climate change WWF
More informationIndex. Canada. Peterson Institute for International Economics
Index Ackerman et al. CRED model, 30, 31t adaptation costs, 5 financing, 79 80, 82 86 aerosols, 18, 103 105, 104t agency problems, 26 agriculture, adaptation costs in, 79n Algeria, alternative policy scenarios,
More informationGlobal Climate Change: Recent Developments. Pål Prestrud, Director CICERO Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo
Global Climate Change: Recent Developments Pål Prestrud, Director CICERO Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo 1 Changes in global atmospheric temperature during the last
More informationLong-Term Scenarios: Perspectives, Experience, and Activities
Long-Term Scenarios: Perspectives, Experience, and Activities Leon Clarke RITE International Symposium The frontiers of scenarios for climate change research and assessment Wednesday, February 09, 2011
More informationFrom carbonization to decarbonization?
From carbonization to decarbonization? Past trends and future scenarios for China s CO 2 emissions Jan Steckel, Michael Jakob, Robert Marschinski, Gunnar Luderer IEW, June 22, 2010 Motivation Data Source:
More informationIPCC AR4: Long term Emissions Pathways
IGES TERI Policy Research Workshop On the road to Paris: The readiness of key countries for COP21 and beyond The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), India 6 7 January 2015 Global GHG Emissions Pathways
More informationThe Energy Challenge
The Energy Challenge Farrokh Najmabadi Prof. of Electrical Engineering Director of Center for Energy Research UC San Diego September 26, 2007 With Thanks to Dr. Steve Koonin, BP for energy charts Energy
More informationImplications of Abundant Natural Gas
Implications of Abundant Natural Gas JAE EDMONDS AND HAEWON MCJEON APRIL 213 April 29, 213 1 Gas and the Global Energy System Gas is has been a growing component of the global energy system for some time.
More informationClimate Goals and CCS
Climate Goals and CCS Kenji YAMAJI Director-General, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE) CSLF Policy Group Meeting October 7, 2016 @Fukuracia Tokyo Station, Japan Recent Development
More informationBiomass & Wood Pellets National Policies
Energy consumption patterns have strongly changed during the last decades. The increase on industrial production of goods, the high mobility of the population and the dependency on fossil fuels for energy
More informationEmission trading, linking, offsetting
Berlin Seminar on Energy and Climate (BSEC) Emission trading, linking, offsetting how do they interact with complementary policies and support mechanisms? Dr. Kai Lessmann Thursday, March 18 th 2010, Berlin
More informationMedium Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2013
Renewable Energy Market Report 213 Michael Waldron Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency OECD/IEA 213 OECD/IEA 213 MTRMR methodology and scope Analysis of drivers and challenges for RE
More informationClimate, Coal and Capital A Sustainable Future: Utopia or Reality?
Climate, Coal and Capital A Sustainable Future: Utopia or Reality? Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer VW Learning Journey Berlin 01 February 2018 available now: www.mcc-berlin.net/klimabuch 2 Emissions are rising.
More informationIan Parry. Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF Renewables in Transport: How to Gain Market Share in a Difficult Environment Brussels, May 11, 2016
Ian Parry Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF Renewables in Transport: How to Gain Market Share in a Difficult Environment Brussels, May 11, 2016 Background > 190 countries made mitigation pledges for Paris
More informationOn the importance of climate change mitigation in developing countries a global perspective Seminar on Energy Efficiency, Lagos November 2, 2015
On the importance of climate change mitigation in developing countries a global perspective Seminar on Energy Efficiency, Lagos November 2, 2015 Dr. Jan Christoph Steckel 1 Risks from climate change depend
More informationScientific updates on current emissions and sinks of greenhouse gases and implications for future emissions pathways
Scientific updates on current emissions and sinks of greenhouse gases and implications for future emissions pathways Dr Richard A. Houghton, Woods Hole Research Center with contributions from the Global
More informationAustralia s emissions target: what is an adequate commitment, and how to achieve it?
Australia s emissions target: what is an adequate commitment, and how to achieve it? Frank Jotzo Peter J Wood Centre for Climate Economics & Policy Crawford School of Economics & Government, ANU Copenhagen:
More informationWissenschaft und Politik: Erforschung von Lösungswegen für den Klimawandel
Wissenschaft und Politik: Erforschung von Lösungswegen für den Klimawandel Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer Co-Chair, IPCC Working Group III Oberpfaffenhofen 23. September 2014 dreamstime 2. September 2014 IPCC
More informationClimate change mitigation, development and the role of energy. Jan Steckel Berlin, November 19, 2013
Climate change mitigation, development and the role of energy Jan Steckel Berlin, November 19, 2013 1 Outline Some opening statements Development, emissions and their drivers Energy and development Energy
More informationKosten und Strategien des Klimaschutzes
Kosten und Strategien des Klimaschutzes Klimaänderungen Herausforderung für die Versicherungswirtschaft Verein zur Förderung der Versicherungswirtschaft Berlin, 17 November 2006, FB Rechtswissenschaft
More informationCSLF Policy Group Meeting Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates 4 th May 2017
CSLF Policy Group Meeting Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates 4 th May 2017 Summary of CCUS Workshop in Bahrain, February 2017 Deployment of Carbon Capture Use and Storage in the Arab Region Ms. Radia Sedaoui
More informationSPE Distinguished Lecturer Program
SPE Distinguished Lecturer Program Primary funding is provided by The SPE Foundation through member donations and a contribution from Offshore Europe The Society is grateful to those companies that allow
More informationMedium and long-term perspectives for PV. Dr. Paolo Frankl Division Head Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency
Medium and long-term perspectives for PV Dr. Paolo Frankl Division Head Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency Solar Power Summit, Brussels, 7-8 March 2017 Annual additions (GW) Cumulative
More informationEnergy Challenges of Our Time. Dr. Fatih BIROL IEA Chief Economist
Energy Challenges of Our Time Dr. Fatih BIROL IEA Chief Economist The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy and limited the
More informationGCAM Scenarios and Latin America
GCAM Scenarios and Latin America Leon Clarke for the GCAM Team October 2, 212 San Jose, Costa Rica 2 Overview of GCAM GCAM: The Global Change Assessment Model 14 Region Energy/Economy Model Regions 151
More informationRENEWABLE ENERGY DEPLOYMENT AND FINANCIAL DE-RISKING
RENEWABLE ENERGY DEPLOYMENT AND FINANCIAL DE-RISKING A CASE STUDY FOR AFRICA Bob van der Zwaan with Bart Sweerts and Francesco Dalla Longa 13-15 November 2018, IAMC, Sevilla, Spain GHG EMISSION PATHWAYS
More informationGlobal Challenge of Climate Change
Global Challenge of Climate Change Keywan Riahi International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx Graz University of Technology riahi@iiasa.ac.at Conference on Adaptation of Water Management to Effects
More informationDie Atmosphäre als globales Gemeinschaftsgut
Die Atmosphäre als globales Gemeinschaftsgut Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer Deutsche Physikalische Gesellschaft e. V. Magnus-Haus Berlin, 03. November 2015 GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been
More informationCurbing Climate Change by Global Trade an outline from Vattenfall
Curbing Climate Change by Global Trade an outline from Vattenfall Low stabilisation Scenarios Strategies, Technologies and Costs Joint Workshop of PIK and FEEM Potsdam 16-17 March 2006 Göran Svensson Vice
More informationThe EU, the IPCC and the Science of Climate Change: The 2 C target
The EU, the IPCC and the Science of Climate Change: The 2 C target 1 Dr. Malte Meinshausen Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) malte.meinshausen@pik-potsdam.de, +49 331 2882652 8th October
More informationEarth s energy balance and the greenhouse effect
Earth s energy balance and the greenhouse effect Average incident solar radiation 342 W/m 2 Reflection to space by atmosphere, clouds, and earth surface 102 W/m 2 Infrared radiation emitted to space 240
More informationSCORECARDS. Report prepared by ECOFYS Germany jointly commissioned by WWF and Allianz SE
G8 CLIMATE SCORECARDS 2008 Report prepared by ECOFYS Germany jointly commissioned by WWF and Allianz SE Dr. Niklas Höhne, Author, ECOFYS Germany Regine Günther, Director of Climate and Energy, WWF Germany
More informationEvaluations on Emission Reduction Efforts of the INDCs and the Expected Global Emissions
November 11 th, 2015 Evaluations on Emission Reduction Efforts of the INDCs and the Expected Global Emissions Systems Analysis Group Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE) Contact
More informationFacing the global energy trilemma: growth, climate and universal access
Facing the global energy trilemma: growth, climate and universal access Ivan Faiella Bank of Italy Structural Analysis Department* Climate Finance e accesso universale all'energia Nona Conferenza Banca
More informationClimate Stabilization & Energy Security in the 21st Century
Bridging the Gap, Portoroz, Slovenia, 14-16 May 2008 Climate Stabilization & Energy Security in the 21st Century Professor H. J. Schellnhuber CBE Potsdam Institute, Oxford University, Tyndall Centre 1
More information03 BURDEN SHARING. Equity has been central to the multilateral BURDEN SHARING. The history of the politics
The history of the politics Equity has been central to the multilateral negotiations on climate change mitigation and adaptation between the South and the North. The dispute is not with the science that
More informationWhat does IPCC AR5 say? IPCC as a radical inside the closet
What does IPCC AR5 say? IPCC as a radical inside the closet What does IPCC AR5 say? Plan: * What is IPCC? * The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) - WR1: The physical basis - WR2: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
More informationGlobal Carbon Finance (GLOCAF) model
OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Global Carbon Finance (GLOCAF) model PMR Technical Workshop on Post-2020 Mitigation Scenarios and Carbon Pricing Modelling Brasilia, 03 February 2016 Contents Introduction GLOCAF model
More informationAs discussed in Chapters 2 and 5, energy fuel
C H A P T E R 8 Energy and Fuels As discussed in Chapters 2 and 5, energy fuel mix and energy intensity (shaped by economic structure and energy efficiencies) play important roles as drivers of CO 2 emissions.
More informationJohn Gale General Manager IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme
The role of CCS as a climate change mitigation option, Energy technology perspectives p John Gale General Manager IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme Public Power Corporation Seminar on CCS Athens, Greece
More informationNegotiating a Global Climate Agreement (using the C-Roads Climate Policy Simulation)
Negotiating a Global Climate Agreement (using the C-Roads Climate Policy Simulation) Lecture 7 Recitation 4 edmp: 14.43/15.013/21A.341/11.161 1 Purpose of C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview And Decision Support)
More informationTechnology and Climate Policy in the Post-Copenhagen World: GTSP Research
Technology and Climate Policy in the Post-Copenhagen World: GTSP Research Jae Edmonds The Global Energy Technology Strategy Annual Meeting May 23, 2011 The Cosmos Club, Washington, DC Acknowledgements!
More informationMedium Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2016
Medium Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2016 Clean Energy Investment and Trends IETA Pavilion COP22, Marrakech November 10, 2016 Liwayway Adkins Environment and Climate Change Unit International Energy
More informationAn Environmental Outlook to 2050: focussing on Climate Change
An Environmental Outlook to 2050: focussing on Climate Change Rob Dellink OECD Environment Directorate Chapter co-authors: Virginie Marchal (ENV), Detlef van Vuuren (PBL), Christa Clapp (ENV), Jean Chateau
More informationASIA IN THE WORLD ECONOMY
ASIA IN THE WORLD ECONOMY Section II: Energy Classes & Topics 6. Energy Demand 7. Energy Supply 8. Case Study: China Where Supply & Demand Meet 9. Energy & The Environment ASIA IN THE WORLD ECONOMY Class
More informationModelling 1.5 o C scenarios: Scientific challenges and consequences for policy making
Low Carbon Society Research Network 8 th Annual Meeting Modelling 1.5 o C scenarios: Scientific challenges and consequences for policy making Mikiko Kainuma Institute for Global Environmental Strategies
More informationUNFCCC COP16 CMP6. Summary
UNFCCC COP16 CMP6 29 November 10 December 2010, Cancun, Mexico Summary Sustainably ensuring the sound survival of humankind and the planet s ecosystems requires an ultimate target of limiting the rise
More informationJoint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change: Perspectives on Renewable Fuels
Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change: Perspectives on Renewable Fuels John Reilly jreilly@mit.edu 1 Vision and Overview Discover new interactions among natural and human climate system
More informationOECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction
OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction Simon Upton Environment Director, OECD New York, 21 March 2012 2 Energy efficiency Linking economy and environment Fuel prices Yield efficiency
More informationCLIMATE CHANGE 2014 Mitigation of Climate Change
dreamstime CLIMATE CHANGE 2014 Mitigation of Climate Change Sectoral and Cross Sectoral Mitigation Joyashree Roy CLA Industry chapter, IPCC Working Group III Working Group III, SED, Bonn GHG emissions
More informationMedium Term Renewable Energy Market Report Michael Waldron Senior Energy Market Analyst Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency
Medium Term Renewable Energy Market Report 13 Michael Waldron Senior Energy Market Analyst Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency OECD/IEA 13 Methodology and Scope OECD/IEA 13 Analysis of
More informationEmission Pathways, Mitigation Costs and the Economic Impacts
IPCC WG3 Symposium September 8, 2014 Emission Pathways, Mitigation Costs and the Economic Impacts Keigo Akimoto Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE) (Guest Professor, the University
More informationThe Future of Nuclear Power after Fukushima
The Future of Nuclear Power after Fukushima Thomas Jonter Professor of International Relations Stockholm University Trends Energy consumption map 1 Before Fukushima: Nuclear Renaissance Reasons: The increasingly
More informationWORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division
WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2002 Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division World Energy Outlook Series World Energy Outlook 1998 World Energy Outlook - 1999 Insights: Looking at Energy
More informationClimate Change as a Security Risk
1 WISSENSCHAFTLICHER BEIRAT DER BUNDESREGIERUNG GLOBALE UMWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN Washington, March 31, 2008, Worldbank Climate Change as a Security Risk Dirk Messner German Development Institute German Advisory
More informationCountries with highest potential for solar process heat The cases of France and Morocco
Countries with highest potential for solar process heat The cases of France and Morocco Montpellier, 13 September, 2015 REmap 2030 - A roadmap for doubling the RE share Context: UN Sustainable Energy for
More informationEvaluations of climate change response measures considering several constraints and multi objectives in the real world
IPCC WG3 Symposium, Tokyo January 26, 217 Evaluations of climate change response measures considering several constraints and multi objectives in the real world Keigo Akimoto, Systems Analysis Group Research
More informationBP Energy Outlook 2017 edition
BP Energy Outlook 217 edition Margaret Chen Head of China Economist bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Economic backdrop Contributions to GDP growth by factor Contributions to GDP growth by region % per annum
More informationStabilisation and equilibrium global mean temperatures
- 28 Stabilisation and equilibrium global mean temperatures Equilibrium temperatures reached after 21 Uncertainty of climate sensitivity important Wold CO2 Emissions (GtC) 2 15 1 5 Post-SRES (max) Stabilization
More informationClimate Investments Optimized under Uncertainty. Hermann Held
Climate Investments Optimized under Uncertainty Isaac Newton Institute CLPW04: Uncertainty in Climate Prediction: Models, Methods and Decision Support Cambridge, 9Dec2010 Hermann Held Chair Sustainability
More informationMitigation of Climate Change Key Insights from IPCC AR5. Keywan Riahi International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Mitigation of Climate Change Key Insights from IPCC AR5 Keywan Riahi International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis riahi@iiasa.ac.at Osterreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften Wien, 24 November
More informationIan Parry. Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF The Energy Transition, INDCs and the Post-COP21 Agenda, Marrakech, September 8-9, 2016
Ian Parry Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF The Energy Transition, INDCs and the Post-COP21 Agenda, Marrakech, September 8-9, 2016 Outline Carbon pricing Broader energy price reform 2 Carbon Pricing 3 Rationale
More informationBP Energy Outlook 2017 edition
BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition Bob Dudley Group chief executive bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition Spencer Dale Group chief economist bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Economic backdrop
More informationVattenfall Capital Markets Day 2007
Vattenfall Capital Markets Day 2007 Presentation by Arne Mogren Head of Climate Policy at Vattenfall Stockholm, 24 September 2007 Vattenfall AB Currently we are diverging CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion
More informationCoal in China: Industrial Efficiency and China in the Global Context. Deborah Seligsohn World Resources Institute October 5, 2010
Coal in China: Industrial Efficiency and China in the Global Context Deborah Seligsohn World Resources Institute October 5, 2010 Industrial Energy Efficiency Critical to the Chinese Energy Picture Sources:
More informationSom Sinha Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal
More informationLow mitigation scenarios since the AR4 Global emission pathways and climate consequences
UNFCCC AWG LCA Bonn March 30 2009 Low mitigation scenarios since the AR4 Global emission pathways and climate consequences Bill Hare (PIK, CA), Michiel Schaeffer (Wageningen University, CA), Malte Meinshausen
More informationImproving representation of electric end-use technologies in global scenarios
Improving representation of electric end-use technologies in global scenarios Taishi Sugiyama*, Masa Sugiyama** and Takeo Imanaka CRIEPI * sugiyama@criepi.denken.or.jp, ** s-masa@criepi.denken.or.jp February
More informationWorld Energy Outlook Bo Diczfalusy, Näringsdepartementet
World Energy Outlook 2013 Bo Diczfalusy, Näringsdepartementet Energy demand & GDP Trillion dollars (2012) 50 40 30 20 10 000 Mtoe 8 000 6 000 4 000 GDP: OECD Non-OECD TPED (right axis): OECD Non-OECD 10
More informationChallenges for the Post-Paris Process
Challenges for the Post-Paris Process Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer 39th IAEE International Conference Energy: Expectations and Uncertainty 22 June 2016 Bergen, Norway The Paris Agreement: INDCs Intended
More informationFossil fuel production scenarios under carbon budget and equity considerations
Fossil fuel production scenarios under carbon budget and equity considerations Steve Pye, Paul Ekins, James Price LCSRnet Conference, University of Warwick September 13 th, 2017 Significant growth of fossil
More informationA b u D h a b i 3rd 5th June 2015
A b u D h a b i 3rd 5th June 2015 Effect of the energy and climate policies in the future Mexican electricity system Helena Cabal Cuesta Yolanda Lechón Pérez Antonio Rodríguez Martínez David Castrejón
More informationDr. Fatih BIROL IEA Chief Economist Tokyo, 17 February 2015
Dr. Fatih BIROL IEA Chief Economist Tokyo, 17 February 2015 Signs of stress in the global energy system Current calm in markets should not disguise difficult road ahead Turmoil in the Middle East raises
More informationCCI/IA Workshop, Snowmass, July 31 st, 2009
johnthescone The Mitigation of Climate Change New Challenges for AR 5 CCI/IA Workshop, Snowmass, July 31 st, 2009 Professor Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer Kristin Seyboth, Dr. Timm Zwickel Table of Contents Exploring
More informationThe Outlook for Energy:
The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Rob Gardner October, 216 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 24
More informationInternational and National Policy
Sectoral Approaches in International and National Policy 2nd International Expert Meeting on Bottom-up Based Analysis on Mitigation Potential Leon Clarke, Kate Calvin October 21, 2008 Acknowledgements
More informationLong Term Trends in Electric Power
Long Term Trends in Electric Power STEVEN J. SMITH 2030 Global Emission Scenarios Workshop International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg, Austria October 9, 2012 PNNL- SA- xxxx Introduction!
More informationFuture Scenarios for China s Carbon Emissions
Future Scenarios for China s Carbon Emissions Jim Watson and Tao Wang Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 7 th July 2008 Overview 1 Energy and emissions trends in China 2 Who owns China s
More informationEmissions Intensity CHAPTER 5 EMISSIONS INTENSITY 25
C H A P T E R 5 Emissions Intensity Emissions intensity is the level of GHG emissions per unit of economic activity, usually measured at the national level as GDP. 25 Intensities vary widely across countries,
More informationBiomass Energy for Transport and. under low CO2 concentration scenarios
Biomass Energy for Transport and Electricity: Large scale utilization under low CO2 concentration scenarios PW Luckow, MA Wise, JJ Dooley, SH Kim College Park, MD May 26, 2010 1 Major Themes of Forthcoming
More informationTACKLING CLIMATE CHANGE: THE WAY FORWARD TO COPENHAGEN
TACKLING CLIMATE CHANGE: THE WAY FORWARD TO COPENHAGEN The Center for American Studies The Embassy of the United States of America Roma, February 17, 2009 Corrado Clini Director General Ministry for the
More informationMedium Term Energy Market Outlook IEEJ Energy Seminar October 213 Keisuke Sadamori, Director, Energy Markets & Security, IEA Primary Energy Supply from Fossil Fuels Mtoe 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 2 21 22
More informationEvaluations on the emission reduction efforts of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in cost metrics
November 15, 2016 Japan Pavilion COP22, Marrakech Evaluations on the emission reduction efforts of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in cost metrics Keigo Akimoto Systems Analysis Group Research
More informationANNEX 4 THE OUTLOOK TO 2020 AND BEYOND TO 2050
ANNEX 4 THE OUTLOOK TO 2020 AND BEYOND TO 2050 1) The OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 1 By 2050, the Earth s population is expected to increase from 7 billion to over 9 billion. Coupled with expected
More informationClimate Change. The Scale & Urgency of the Challenge
Climate Change The Scale & Urgency of the Challenge Brian Hoskins UK Climate Change Committee Director, Grantham Institute for Climate Change Imperial College, UK Royal Society Research Professor, University
More informationThe Asian perspective: thermal coal and renewables
The Asian perspective: thermal coal and renewables ESPO: PORTS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE, A CHANGING WORLD! June 01, 2017 Historical development Global energy use: historical Global energy use by source (1990-2015)
More informationThe Global Annual Energy Meeting The Coming Energy Market, IV edition. GAMESA: a vision from the market Ignacio Martín - Executive Chairman
The Coming Energy Market, IV edition GAMESA: a vision from the market Ignacio Martín - Executive Chairman October 30th, 2015 1 Solid start of a new period 2015 Current ENVIRONMENT: In 2012, Market environment:
More informationTransformational Change Toward Decarbonization Initial Findings of the Global Energy Assessment
Transformational Change Toward Decarbonization Initial Findings of the Global Energy Assessment Nebojša Nakićenović International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx Technische Universität Wien xx
More informationSharing the reduction effort between developed and developing countries to limit global warming to 2 o C. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Sharing the reduction effort between developed and developing countries to limit global warming to 2 o C Michel den Elzen Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Niklas Höhne Ecofys Box 13.7: Reductions
More informationWorld Energy Outlook 2004
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency International Energy Symposium, IEEJ Tokyo 16 November 2004 Global Energy Trends: Reference
More informationRio, Kyoto, Copenhagen, Cancun, Durban... what's next? A skeptical view on climate negotiations.
Rio, Kyoto, Copenhagen, Cancun, Durban... what's next? A skeptical view on climate negotiations. Carlo Carraro President, University of Venice Vice Chair, IPCC WG III Chairman, Scientific Advisory Board,
More informationGLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 2016
THE ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES THE ANALYTICAL CENTER FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION GLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 216 Prof. Len Grigoriev and Dr. Tatiana
More informationThe Economics of Climate Change Nicholas Stern. Second IG Patel lecture New Delhi 26 October 2007
The Economics of Climate Change Nicholas Stern Second IG Patel lecture New Delhi 26 October 2007 1 The economics of climate change Impacts, Risks, Costs: Global Possible Impacts on India Planning for Adaptation
More informationSectoral Approaches in International and National Policy
Sectoral Approaches in International and National Policy 2nd International Expert Meeting on Bottom-up Based Analysis on Mitigation Potential Leon Clarke, Kate Calvin October 21, 2008 Acknowledgements
More informationForests in a changing world challenges and opportunities. Prof. Markku Kanninen University of Helsinki
Forests in a changing world challenges and opportunities Prof. Markku Kanninen University of Helsinki 1 Trends in forests During the last 40 years Deforestation: 500 M Ha Consumption of forest products:
More informationDeep Decarbonization And Sustainable Development
Deep Decarbonization And Sustainable Development Prof. Jeffrey D. Sachs University Professor and Director of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment Annual
More information