Climate Change: Global, Regional, and Local Effects on Ecosystem and Human Health

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Climate Change: Global, Regional, and Local Effects on Ecosystem and Human Health Dr. David Karowe Department of Biological Sciences Western Michigan University Since 1900, Earth has warmed by ~ 0.

1 Climate Change: Global, Regional, and Local Effects on Ecosystem and Human Health Dr. David Karowe Department of Biological Sciences Western Michigan University Since 1900, Earth has warmed by ~ 0.8 o C 10 warmest years in history: , , 1998* Temperature Change ( o C) - warmest year: rate of warming is times faster than in at least the last 800,000 years - likely faster than in 55 million yr * 1

Temperature difference relative to 1950-1980 http://data.giss.

2 Temperature difference relative to Earth s climate has always been changing Over the past 800,000 years: ~ 100,000 year climate cycles, due to cyclic changes in amount of incoming solar radiation 2

3 Can current climate change be due to natural variation? For the last 30 years, solar irradiance has been decreasing Solar Irradiance Since 1900, natural factors would have caused a slight cooling of Earth 3

Bottom line: At least 95% of global warming is due to human activities Fossil fuel use (~80%) Deforestation (~20%) Is there any debate among scientists about

" Scientific organizations endorsing this statement: United States: National Academy of Sciences American Association for the Advancement of Science American

4 Bottom line: At least 95% of global warming is due to human activities Fossil fuel use (~80%) Deforestation (~20%) Is there any debate among scientists about whether humans are the primary cause of global warming? Most of the global warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities." Scientific organizations endorsing this statement: United States: National Academy of Sciences American Association for the Advancement of Science American Medical Association American Meteorological Society American Institute of Biological Sciences American Chemical Society American Geophysical Union American Institute of Physics 4

5 Geological Society of America American Academy of Paediatrics American College of Preventive Medicine American Public Health Association National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Environmental Protection Agency National Center for Atmospheric Research University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Ecological Society of America American Society of Agronomy American Society of Plant Biologists Association of Ecosystem Research Centers Botanical Society of America Crop Science Society of America Natural Science Collections Alliance American Statistical Association Organization of Biological Field Stations American Physical Society Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Society of Systematic Biologists Soil Science Society of America Federation of American Scientists National Research Council National Association of Geoscience Teachers American Quaternary Association American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians American Society for Microbiology Society of American Foresters American Astronomical Society 5

6 Europe: European Academy of Sciences and Arts European Science Foundation European Geosciences Union European Physical Society European Federation of Geologists Royal Society of the United Kingdom Academie des Sciences (France) Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher (Germany) Accademia dei Lincei (Italy) Royal Irish Academy Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Royal Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts Royal Meteorological Society British Antarctic Survey United Kingdom Institute of Biology Other countries ( 35): Chinese Academy of Sciences Science Council of Japan Russian Academy of Sciences Indian National Science Academy Royal Society of New Zealand Australian Academy of Sciences Australian Medical Association Polish Academy of Sciences Academia Brasiliera de Ciencias (Brazil) Royal Society of Canada African Academy of Sciences Caribbean Academy of Sciences Academy of Sciences of Malaysia Indonesian Academy of Sciences Academy of Science of South Africa 6

7 Scientific organizations holding a dissenting opinion: American Institute of Petroleum Geologists (but not since 2007) Are Americans aware of the strength of the scientific evidence? 7

8 Are Americans aware of the strength of the scientific consensus? 85% of U.S. energy comes from fossil fuels 8

9 U.S. emits the most carbon per person Midwest would be 4 th highest emitting country In just the last 150 years, atmospheric CO 2 increased from 280 to >390 parts per million (ppm) 9

10 Worldwide, what s already happening? Arctic summer sea ice is disappearing Glaciers are melting worldwide

11 Greenland is melting and Antarctica is shattering Permafrost is melting and destabilizing 11

12 Severe rainstorms have become more common - 50% increase in southwest Michigan since 1948 Flooding has increased worldwide 12

13 2011 was Michigan s 3 rd wettest spring on record As a result, Michigan experienced flooding this spring 13

14 And there was extensive flooding along Mississippi Droughts have also increased worldwide Exceptional Extreme Severe Moderate Mild drought Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) 14

2000-2009 Exceptional Extreme Severe Moderate Mild drought Palmer

15 Exceptional Extreme Severe Moderate Mild drought Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) Much of the U.S. had an unusually warm summer 15

16 In late September, 43% of U.S. was in drought September 27, 2011 South central states experienced Exceptional Drought Right now, 61% of U.S. is in drought September April 10, ,

17 This year, 23 states had their warmest March on record What will the future bring? 17

18 Climate change is very likely to accelerate Earth is expected to warm by at least 2-4 o C by 2100 Business as usual 4 o 2 o Alternate energy sources On average, CO 2 stays in the atmosphere for ~100 years Global warming is likely to persist for >1,000 years after we stop emitting greenhouse gasses 18

19 Will a 4-5 o temperature rise matter? When Earth was 5 o cooler: Severe rainstorms will continue to increase 19

20 In the future, most summers are likely to be hotter than any experienced thus far In the future, most summers are likely to be hotter than any experienced thus far 20

21 Much of the world is likely to experience much more frequent and stronger droughts ex ce ex ptio tre na se me l v m ere od e m rat ild e dr ou gh t Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) How are plants and animals likely to be affected by future climate change? 21

22 By 2100, many species are predicted to experience disappearing climates Low Moderate High Probability of a Disappearing Climate African mammals are likely to be adversely affected Of 227 species, 20-40% are predicted to be extinct by 2080 due to climate change 22

Most Western Hemisphere amphibian species are

change 37% of 413 species are predicted to

23 Most Western Hemisphere amphibian species are predicted to be adversely affected by climate change 37% of 413 species are predicted to decrease by >90% area of greatest vulnerability Birds in high northern latitudes are particularly vulnerable to climate change White-winged Crossbill Eurasian Dotterel 27 species lose, on average, 80% of suitable habitat by

24 Possible loss of all coral reefs with 3 o rise and >650 ppm CO 2 Overall, tree species richness is predicted to decline substantially throughout the U.S. by 2100 Current

25 In Michigan, sugar maple is predicted to decline by >80% by 2100 under Business as Usual Current 2100 In Michigan, 8 of the 15 most abundant tree species are predicted to decline by at least 50% sugar maple balsam fir paper birch big tooth and trembling aspen northern white cedar 25

26 36 Michigan bird species predicted to decline by % common loon white-throated sparrow blackburnian warbler yellow-bellied sapsucker evening grosbeak red-breasted nuthatch magnolia warbler junco additional species predicted to decline by %: 26

27 15 new species are predicted to occur in Michigan northern bobwhite yellow-billed cuckoo little blue heron cattle egret Mississippi kite scissor-tailed flycatcher painted bunting summer tanager Globally, if we allow Earth to warm by 3 o C, 20-50% of species may be committed to extinction 27

malaria, dengue) 3. Reduced air quality (e.g. higher ozone) 4. Increased malnutrition 5.

28 How is climate change likely to affect human health? 1. Increased heat stress and decreased cold stress 2. Increased disease (e.g. malaria, dengue) 3. Reduced air quality (e.g. higher ozone) 4. Increased malnutrition 5. Increased conflict By 2100 in Europe, every other summer could be like 2003, when a heat wave killed up to 80,000 people Year 28

number of Chicago 1995-like heat waves - responsible for ~

29 Michigan will experience many more days over 90 o F For many Midwestern cities, dramatic increases predicted in the number of Chicago 1995-like heat waves - responsible for ~ 700 deaths Number of Chicago 1995-like heat waves per decade 29

malaria 1,000,000 deaths annually Anopheles Most studies predict increase

30 Climate change is likely to cause an increase in several vector-borne diseases e.g. malaria 1,000,000 deaths annually Anopheles Most studies predict increase in malaria, but change depends on climate scenario +2 o C +10% summer rain - 10% winter rain +4 o C +20% summer rain -20% winter rain 30

31 Fossil fuel induced increases in tropospheric ozone is predicted to cause ~2 million deaths by 2050 Annual deaths due to O 3 above pre-industrial level - health costs estimated at $580 billion per year In the U.S., corn and soybean yields are predicted to decrease dramatically 31

By 2030, most of the important crops in India

wars in six African regions by 5-10% by 2030 -

32 By 2030, most of the important crops in India and Pakistan are predicted to have reduced yields - 30% of world s malnourished people Climate change is predicted to increase civil wars in six African regions by 5-10% by overall increase in sub-saharan Africa of about about 50% 32

33 Developed countries are causing the problem, but developing countries experience most health costs Countries proportional to CO 2 emissions ( ) Countries proportional to climate-sensitive health effects What can I do to minimize climate change? 33

34 1. Next time, buy a more fuel-efficient car 20 mpg 30 mpg 34 mpg 50 mpg - would reduce CO 2 emissions by 56 million tons per year 2. Weatherize your house: weather-strip, adequately insulate attic, and replace single-pane windows with triple-pane windows - would reduce CO 2 emissions by 25 million tons per year 34

3. Next time, buy energy star appliances

35 3. Next time, buy energy star appliances - would reduce CO 2 emissions by 15 million tons per year 4. HVAC equipment: when necessary, replace older furnace and AC unit with Energy Star model - would reduce CO 2 emissions by 12 million tons per year 35

36 5. Change to compact fluorescent light bulbs - one per household = taking 6 million cars off the road 6. Turn the thermostat down (winter) or up (summer) - can save 7 tons of CO 2 per year for a family of four 36

37 7. Buy green electricity - one GreenBlock = driving 3,300 fewer miles per year ($1.50/month) Unfortunately, energy conservation is not a solution 50 mpg - really just delays the inevitable 37

Emissions reductions need to be rapid and large - 80% reduction by 2050 to avoid worst scenarios Urgent need for alternate energy sources Solar Wind The TRUE COSTS of wind and

38 Emissions reductions need to be rapid and large - 80% reduction by 2050 to avoid worst scenarios Urgent need for alternate energy sources Solar Wind The TRUE COSTS of wind and solar are already lower than coal-generated electricity True cost per kilowatt hour of power Coal: 26 Offshore wind: 3 Onshore wind: 6 Solar troughs: 11 Solar towers: 20 Solar PV: 40 38

39 Wind power could supply 16 times current U.S. electricity demand using only onshore turbines - Michigan can supply 12 times our current use Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is very promising Central tower Parabolic trough 39

could be stored as heat and used to produce electricity at night A

40 A CSP solar array 100 x 100 miles could provide all of U.S. electricity needs today - excess energy captured during the day could be stored as heat and used to produce electricity at night A small portion of the Sahara desert could supply all of the world s electricity 40

41 Who has the largest impact on Earth s future? Fred Upton is one of the biggest threats to planet Earth on planet Earth. LA Times, December Contact your representatives! 9. Vote 41

42 10. Educate others Worst case scenario: 42

Climate Change: The Greatest Moral Challenge of our Time

Climate Change: The Greatest Moral Challenge of our Time President John Dunn, Western Michigan University David Karowe, WMU Department of Biology Ron Kramer, WMU Department of Sociology Paul Clements,