Oil market outlook: The start of a new normal. October 2017

Transcription

1 Oil market outlook: The start of a new normal October 2017

2 INVENTORIES (1/4) The rebalancing is in full swing: 75% of the overhang is gone OECD crude overhang vs five-year average Mb Floating storage Mb Stationary for >30 days (50) The OECD crude overhang has declined by over 100 mb since January, while the products overhang is now falling fast Floating storage has declined sharply as the curves have flattened and differentials have risen Source: IEA, Energy Aspects analysis 2 October 2017

3 INVENTORIES (2/4) OPEC destocking coming to an end Saudi crude stocks Mb Iranian floating storage Mb Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 Saudi crude stocks have fallen by nearly 100 mb since their peak in Q4 16, and the destocking has boosted exports Around 35 mb of Iranian floating storage has also been drawn down since Q4 16 Source: JODI, Reuters, Energy Aspects analysis 3 October 2017

4 INVENTORIES (3/4) Products stockdraws leading the charge, forward cover basis even tighter Chinese total products stocks Mb German diesel stocks Mb year average Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 58 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov In theory, China stockpiled over 1 mb/d in H1 17, but several new pipes and tanks have started up Stocks are falling across the rest of the world with product draws gaining momentum in recent weeks Source: NBS, China Customs,, IE, Energy Aspects analysis 4 October 2017

5 INVENTORIES (4/4) Backwardation breeds backwardation OECD crude and products forward cover # of days Brent forward curve $ per barrel Average 63 Current (02-Oct) 1 week ago month ago 1 year ago Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Global oil demand has risen by 5.5 mb/d in the last three years, so an additional 200 mb of stocks is required Backwardation is forcing a quick liquidation of inventories both offshore and onshore Source: IEA, EIA, Energy Aspects analysis 5 October 2017

6 PRICES AND DIFFERENTIALS (1/3) Unsurprisingly, physical differentials and crude structure are on fire Argus USGC medium crude spreads $ per barrel Brent and Dubai prompt timespreads $ per barrel 4 Basrah Light Kuwaiti Vasconia 1.0 Dubai M1-M2 Brent M1-M2 2 Escalante Mars (2) (4) (0.5) (6) Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 (1.0) Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Light-heavy crude differentials have tightened further amidst continuing OPEC cuts and declining LatAm output Brent and Dubai structure have firmed across the curve in recent weeks amidst strong fundamentals Source: Argus, Energy Aspects analysis 6 October 2017

7 PRICES AND DIFFERENTIALS (2/3) Even light crude differentials firm despite Libya, Nigeria and US shale Nigerian differentials to Dated Brent $ per barrel Libya, Nigeria, and US output, y/y change 2.5 Bonny Light Forcados 2.0 Libya Nigeria US crude 2.0 Qua Iboe (0.5) (0.5) (1.0) (1.0) Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct (1.5) Jan 16 May 16 Sep 16 Jan 17 May 17 Sep 17 Light crude differentials have firmed since mid-july as strong naphtha has helped absorb the excess The strength in light crudes is all the more remarkable given the recovery in Libyan, Nigerian and US production Source: Argus, MEES, EIA, Energy Aspects analysis 7 October 2017

8 PRICES AND DIFFERENTIALS (3/3) Crude being pulled higher by products Heating oil cracks vs WTI $ per barrel Brent cracking margins $ per barrel 28 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan yr avg Apr Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Aug Sep 0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Product cracks started strengthening even before Hurricane Harvey, led by distillates Strong products demand and the drawdown in products stocks are buoying products cracks Source: Argus, Reuters, Energy Aspects analysis 8 October 2017

9 REFINING (1/3) Products strength comes despite near-record runs and even before Harvey Global refinery runs Refinery additions vs demand growth Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul Net refining and splitter additions Demand growth Global refinery runs have risen by over 0.7 mb/d y/y in the year to August, with December runs set to hit a record but since 2014, global refinery and splitter capacity additions have lagged behind demand growth Source: Government sources, Energy Aspects analysis 9 October 2017

10 REFINING (2/3) As capacity closures and spec changes reduce available refining capacity Asia fuel specifications Australia (1) Australia (2) Bangladesh (1) Bangladesh (2) Brunei Cambodia China (1) China (2) Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Laos Malaysia (1) Malaysia (2) Myanmar Nepal Pakistan Philippines Singapore (1) Singapore (2) South Korea Sri Lanka Taiwan Thailand Vietnam I IV V I IV V I I I I IV I I I IV V I IV IV V I I I I IV I I I IV V V I IV VI IV V I IV IV VI IV V VI V IV V IV I IV V 2025 V By the end of 2016, the lack of capacity additions had started to catch up with the market and product stocks gradually began drawing. A slew of product spec changes over the last two years in China, India, Pakistan, Indonesia and the US amongst others also contributed to tightening refining capacity as several simple refineries were effectively made redundant. Note: (1) Gasoline (2) Diesel Source: Company reports, Energy Aspects research 10 October 2017

11 REFINING (3/3) China focuses on clear blue skies, for now Global refinery runs, y/y change Chinese runs and estimates Series1 Series (0.5) (1.0) 10.5 (1.5) (2.0) Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul East of Suez runs had underperformed the West of Suez in H1 17 amidst a huge maintenance slate but now, despite the start-up of new refining capacity, Chinese runs will be capped amidst low export quotas Source: Government sources, Energy Aspects analysis 11 October 2017

12 DEMAND (1/4) Stellar demand growth to still outpace runs increase Global oil demand growth by product, y/y change Global oil demand growth by region, y/y change LPG Gasoline Jet/Kero Diesel Fuel oil LatAm Other Asia China India ME FSU OECD (0.5) (0.5) H1 17 (1.0) Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Global oil demand growth has been extremely uniform, discouraging opportunistic yield shifts We forecast 2017 global oil demand growth at 1.7 mb/d y/y, from 1.8 mb/d in 2016, and at 1.5 mb/d y/y in 2018 Source: Government agencies, JODI, Bloomberg, Energy Aspects analysis 12 October 2017

13 DEMAND (2/4) despite constant fears that oil demand is allegedly dead EVs lauded as the future Chinese conventional car fleet size Millions Forecast fleet expansion Historic fleet size Volvo and Tesla dominate the narrative with the fear that producers will sell reserves now given lack of future demand Electric cars are just 0.5% of China s conventional car fleet, but government now mandates the sale of far more EVs Source: Energy Aspects analysis, Image Source: Adapted from - Elon Musk photo by Steve Jurvetson, Flickr / Avatar, Electric Car and Power Station vectors by Freepik.com / Logos from company websites - All retrieved online 13 October 2017

14 DEMAND (3/4) Pivot to fiscal policy means diesel is leading growth rather than gasoline Source: Energy Aspects Note: This map is indicative only, and is not intended as an exact representation of all infrastructure projects with Chinese engagement 14 October 2017

15 DEMAND (4/4) LatAm declines and Middle East demand both bottoming out Brazil oil demand, y/y change Middle Eastern oil demand, y/y change Iraq UAE Iran Kuwait Saudi (0.1) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.6) Brazilian oil demand declines are starting to peter out, even though the economic backdrop remains shaky Strong demand outside of Saudi Arabia continues, while a delay to pricing reforms may help Saudi demand recover Source: ANP, JODI, Energy Aspects analysis 15 October 2017

16 OPEC (1/3) OPEC has been more disciplined than many expected OPEC compliance rates % Unplanned upstream outages 250% 200% OPEC Saudi Iraq UAE Kuwait Venz 4 3 Other Nigeria Libya Colombia Venezuela Iraq Iran 150% 2 100% 50% 1 0% Jan Mar May Jul Sep 0 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 OPEC compliance has beaten market expectations, averaging 106%, led by GCC and Venezuela outages Unplanned outages also on the rise, with Iranian South Pars condensate production down through November Note: Compliance of five largest producers (ex. Iran, which was given a ceiling not a cap) Source: Kpler, Energy Aspects analysis 16 October 2017

17 OPEC (2/3) But OPEC exports to rise in October as refinery maintenance rises OPEC crude exports Refinery maintenance 28 Total Total (ex Nigeria + Libya) 1.2 Africa Middle East Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 Aug 17 Oct 17 Dec 17 Feb 18 Exports remain lower than Q4 16, despite recoveries in Libya and Nigeria, with the Saudis cutting further in August OPEC exports to rise in October amidst heavy refinery works, particularly in Saudi Arabia Note: Compliance of five largest producers (ex. Iran, which was given a ceiling not a cap) Source: Kpler, Energy Aspects analysis 17 October 2017

18 OPEC (3/3) Extension of production deal will soon be in focus Libyan production Saudi and Iraqi output, y/y change (0.5) (1.0) Iraq Saudi Arabia Nigeria could be included in the deal, but adding Libya is unlikely especially given recent volatility in Libyan production Even Iraqi compliance has been better than expected, but whether they agree to an extension remains a question Source: MEES, Energy Aspects analysis 18 October 2017

19 NON-OPEC SUPPLY (1/5) Supplies set to rise strongly next year Non-OPEC supply by region, y/y change OPEC output 3 NAM LatAm ME Asia FSU Europe Africa Forecast 34 Forecast (1) 31 (2) 13Q1 15Q1 17Q US production will lead growth next year along with Canada, Brazil and the FSU Fears are that OPEC will ramp up output to Q4 16 levels as soon as the deal is over, although we believe this is unlikely Source: Energy Aspects analysis 19 October 2017

20 NON-OPEC SUPPLY (2/5) But fears of massive shale growth receding somewhat US crude production Non-OPEC supply, y/y change (0.5) (1.0) Rest of world US Forecast 8.0 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 (1.5) 05Q1 08Q1 11Q1 14Q1 17Q1 US production growth has stalled amidst shortage of frac crews and focus on profitability 2017 US production growth estimates have been tempered, although expectations are high for next year Source: Company reports, EIA, Energy Aspects analysis 20 October 2017

21 NON-OPEC SUPPLY (3/5) Profitability in focus for shale producers, so something has to give Performance of North American E&P vs Brent Normalised to 1 Jan 2016 Liquids production from FCF companies % NA Independent E&P valuation index Brent 50% 40% 30% % 10% 0.6 Jan 16 Jun 16 Nov 16 Apr 17 Sep 17 0% Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Despite higher oil prices, investors have shunned NA producers, with many names down by 20-30% on the year The percentage of liquids production generated from FCF positive companies has plunged to near-record lows of 6% Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, Energy Aspects analysis 21 October 2017

22 NON-OPEC SUPPLY (4/5) Growth at any cost is no longer being rewarded H2 17 Capex and production trends for large caps $ billion and thousand boe/d Capex - $ billion Production thousand boe/d H2 17 H2 16 y/y chg. H2 17 H2 16 y/y chg. Anadarko 2,004 1,626 23% Apache 1, % % Continental % % Devon 549 1,095 (50%) (1%) EOG 1,927 1,395 38% % Hess 1,440 1,016 42% (1%) Marathon 1, % (12%) Murphy % (3%) Noble 1, % (13%) Oxy 1,769 1,533 15% % Pioneer 1, % % Whiting % % Total 15,633 10,800 45% 4,087 4,042 1% Despite stated efficiency gains, growth still driven by rising Capex profile. To meet growth targets, Capex still needs to rise, which will worsen free cashflow trends if prices stay flat. Either output will be downgraded, or prices must increase to meet optimistic expectations for US growth Note: Total excludes Anadarko as divestures at the company distort underlying trends Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, Energy Aspects 22 October 2017

23 NON-OPEC SUPPLY (5/5) Declines accelerating in mature medium/heavy fields Indonesian oil production API and heavy output % KMZ field output, y/y change Thousand b/d 31 API (LHS) % Heavy output (RHS) 30% 100 Ku Maloob Zaap % % (50) % (100) Ramp-up of light Banyu-Urip field and declines at heavy Duri field have yielded a four-degree API shift since 2014 After a brief respite, declines at Ku, a 22 API field, are accelerating, whilst Zaap, a 12 API field, is plateauing Source: SKK Migas, Pemex, Energy Aspects analysis 23 October 2017

24 BALANCES (1/2) 2018 balances now show a small decline in stocks Global implied stockbuilds US storage capacity utilisation % 3 Forecast 75% 2 70% 1 65% 0 60% (1) 55% (2) Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q % Stockdraws will accelerate in H2 17, with 2018 now expected to see small stockdraws biased towards H2 18 The market s stance on 2018 balances is gradually changing and becoming more positive, especially with ullage available Source: EIA, Energy Aspects analysis 24 October 2017

25 BALANCES (2/2) Quality issues and lack of new projects to create long-term headaches US oil production forecasts New capacity additions (OPEC + non-opec) Key shale Others GoM Alaska 3 2 Asia North America Europe Latin America Middle East FSU Africa 1 (0.5) (1.0) We expect the four major shale basins to grow by 0.5 mb/d in total each year until project additions are the lowest this decade, just when underlying declines have doubled Source: EIA, DrillingInfo, Regulatory Data, Energy Aspects analysis 25 October 2017

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