Management of the Neman River basin with account of adaptation to climate change:

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1 Management of the Neman River basin with account of adaptation to climate change: Achieved general results of runoff forecast and other results of the Project including future planned activities Vladimir Korneev Central Research Institute for Complex Use of Water Resources (CRICUWR), Minsk, Belarus Egidijus Rimkus, Edvinas Stonevicius Vilnius University, Lithuania; With contribution: Audrius Šepikas, Environmental Protection Agency, Lithuania; Nickolai Denisov, Zoï environment network, Switzerland; Aliaksandr Volchak, Brest State Technical University, Brest, Belarus; Aliaksandr Pakhomau, Lubov Hertman, Ivan Bulak, Elena Bogodiazh, CRICUWR, Minsk, Belarus; Ina Rusaya, Republican Centre of Radiation Control and Monitoring, Minsk, Belarus Vladimir Anufriev, Belarusian National Technical University, Minsk, Belarus

2 Activity 3. Forecasting the runoff of the Neman River basin in the context of climate change and with account of different scenarios for water use and socio-economic development: Projection of natural runoff with using of two different models (Belarusian and Lithuanian); Computation of the current and estimated future water balances and runoff changes with account of anthropogenic load (presented in the separate presentation for Belarusian part of Neman River Basin).

3 Runoff forecast A1B scenario (annual)

4 Runoff forecast A1B scenario (January - February)

5 Runoff forecast A1B scenario (May - September)

6 Runoff forecast A1B scenario (October - December)

7 Runoff forecast B1 scenario (annual)

8 Runoff forecast B1 scenario (January - February)

9 Runoff forecast B1 scenario (May - September)

10 Runoff forecast B1 scenario (October - December)

11 Proposed suggestions and conclusion regarding projections of runoff A study of the achieved results of runoff forecast in the Neman River Basin with Belarusian and Lithuanian models shows considerable variation of hydrological characteristic changes on an annual scale for 2020 to Results of forecast showed increases and decreases runoff during some months of the year as well as an increase of winter runoff, decreases in maximum spring and summer discharges and increased winter flow. In addition, the peak of the spring flood and the dates of minimum winter flow tend to occur earlier in the whole basin area. Both runoff models are adequate enough and comparable.

12 Activity 4. Analysis of the monitoring systems in the Neman River Basin and assessment of the needs for these systems optimization for climate change monitoring (preliminary proposals are presented in the separate presentation for Belarusian part of Neman River Basin) Activity 5. Estimation and forecast of the future climate change impact on the water quality at the highest generalization level (common Belarusian and Lithuanian approach for assessment of water quality of surface waters and analyses of current status of surface water quality in the Neman River Basin taking into account European experience are presented in the separate presentations) Activity 6. Elaboration of the common information platform (Internet database), containing data on water resources management and adaptation to climate change for the Neman River basin countries. (conception and prototype of this platform are presented in the separate presentation)

13 Examples of implementation of common Lithuanian and Belarusian approach for assessment of water quality of surface waters taking into account European experience

14 Planned future activities To continue activities on: Analysis of the monitoring systems in the Neman River Basin and assessment of the needs for these systems optimization for climate change monitoring (including emergency cases); Estimation and forecast of the future climate change impact on the water quality; Elaboration of the common information platform (Internet database), containing data on water resources management and adaptation to climate change for the Neman River basin countries and recommendations for the improvement of the water management in the Neman River Basin with account of adaptation to climate change. To develop possible list of measures on adaptation of water resources management in the Neman River Basin to climate change. To prepare and to publish of final publication about project.

15 Thank you for attention! River Neman in Grodno (Belarus)