Transi'on Engineering Scenarios

Transcription

1 Transi'on Engineering Scenarios What EROI tells us about the future Susan Krumdieck Professor of Mechanical Engineering University of Canterbury New Zealand

2 Requirement: Reduce GHG Emissions 80% The main challenge in our global future is not to solve the problems we are facing, but to reach agreement to do so. Short-termism in democracies and in capitalism will hinder a meaningful response Does EROI inform a long-term view? Would EROI cause climate ac'on?

3 Climate Ac'on: We could have 100% Renewable Energy by 2050! Treehugger.com 100.org 350.org Greenpeace WWF Ecofys Would EROI inform expecta'ons for subs'tu'on of renewables for fossil fuel?

4 We Must take Ac'on Who is We? What will compel ac'on? What ac'on would we take? When would we do the ac'on?

5 Was the Titanic Doomed? Change Course

6 Retro Version Safe Crossing Leave Coal, Oil & Gas in the Ground 2 o C Telegraph Operator (Scien'sts) Navigator (Economists) Captain (Poli'cal Leaders) Owners (Investors) 1 st Class Passengers Economy Class Passengers Engine Room (Engineers) Economy Slow Down Change Course

7 Engineers Save the Ship?

8 The Future Scenario in which Engineers Save the Ship

9 100 years from now, we look back

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11 Requirement: 80% Reduc'on by 2052 MTOE Future Scenario for Fossil Fuel Use Future Scenario for Energy Transi9on A given regional economy or sector reduces fossil fuel use about 4% per year The actual transi'on happens one project at a 'me in different organiza'ons in different places

12 The work of Heretics L eave ye yon fossil in the ground ffor it shall surely be required ffor more worthy tasks later and thou doth risk much in the taking

13 Transi'on Engineering Framework BAU Scenarios Un-sustainability Risks 3 Future 2 Present Plant, Utilities Economics Pollution Policy, Social 6 7 Forward Operating Environment 1 History System Dynamics Learning 5 Back-Casting Opportunities Barriers Regulation Technology Infrastructure Path-Break System Concepts Years in the Future

14 Heresy #1: This is the wrong model Energy Resource Energy Conversion Fuel or Electricity Distribu'on End Use Energy Open Flow Model

15 Anthropogenic System Dynamics Individual and Shared Cultural Vision Regulations Standards, Innovation, Engineering, Investment, Enterprise, Policy Directive Reference Control Actuation Performance Safety Security Sustainability Human Activity System Reason, Knowledge, Experience + - Reason, Analysis Quality & Utility Decisions Actuators Economics Primary Feedback Observation, Perception End-user Technology Physical System Built Environment Infrastructure Energy Systems Material Systems Feedback Measurements, Observation, Science Regional System Boundary Disturbances Interaction with and Impact on Regional and Global Environment Resources Wastes Krumdieck (1989)

16 Laws of Anthropogenic Dynamics If a system works, there is resistance to change. If a system does not work crisis causes change. If the system changes in a way that works, behavior changes rapidly.

17 Transi'on Engineering Framework BAU Scenarios Un-sustainability Risks Heresy #2 3 Future 2 Present Plant, Utilities Economics Pollution Policy, Social 6 7 Forward Operating Environment 1 History System Dynamics Learning 5 Back-Casting Opportunities Barriers Regulation Technology Infrastructure Path-Break System Concepts Years in the Future

18 Some Technologies do not have Development Poten'al Fundamental Science EROI Manufacturing Materials System Integra9on Poten'al Energy Technology IDEA $ R&D Architecture Development Timeline Market Penetra9on NEED Poten'al Value and Benefits

19 Transi'on Engineering Framework BAU Scenarios Un-sustainability Risks 2 Present Plant, Utilities Economics Pollution Policy, Social Future Forward Operating Environment 1.5 o C The world is finite 1 History System Dynamics Learning 5 Back-Casting Opportunities Barriers Regulation Technology Infrastructure Path-Break System Concepts Years in the Future

20 Long-Term Brainstorm 100 years from now people like us will be Dining Nature Recreation Leisure Food Shopping Meals Garden Food Sleep Food Social Visit Cultural Church School Work Drinks Caregiving Medical Bath Dental Shopping doing essendal acdvides and using 80% less total energy

21 Transi'on Engineering Framework BAU Scenarios Un-sustainability Risks 3 Future 2 Present Plant, Utilities Economics Pollution Policy, Social 6 7 Forward Operating Environment 1 History System Dynamics Learning 5 Back-Casting Opportunities Barriers Regulation Technology Infrastructure Path-Break System Concepts Years in the Future

22 Transi'on Engineering Projects What is the Essen'al Ac'vity? Specific place, specific need, specific people What is the Problem? Meet the need without fossil fuel What are the requirements? Safety, Security, Sustainability Feasible, Func'onal, Affordable TE Methodology: extreme crea'vity here'cal innova'on brainstorm process

23 Example Transi'on Project France, Grenoble INP, ENSE 3 Student Mid-Day Meal Service COP21 Transi'on

24 History: 100 years ago France has 50,000 University Students University students shared a mid-day meal Bread, soup, cheese, seasonal Local Foods only commodi'es by rail

25 Historical Development to Today: Industrial Agriculture Diet with more Meat & Out of Season Veg Increased Processing, Packaging, Refrigera'on More Trucks and Food Miles Food Service Companies Bulk Supply

26 Historical Growth Trend Models Exponen'al: 5.2% annual student popula'on growth rate Linear: 40.3k students added per year Number of Students in French Universi'es eurostat

27 Flat Trend in Trucks Vehicles per 1000 people Car Bus Truck Trucks per million Euros GPD eurostat France has 5.4 Million Trucks 2009

28 Today: Gather Data How many students eat at RU Green? Audit Energy and GHG intensity 100% fossil fuel dependent supply chains Waste stream

29 Today Sources of Green House Gas in Food Supply Webber & Manhews (2008) Produc'on, and thus menu choice is actually the major source of fossil fuel use and GHG emissions, par'cularly methane from agriculture

30 Today: Energy Audit of the Cafe Fossil Fuel Intensity of the Menu Menu Supply Chain Refrigera'on Cooking Cleaning Waste Heat/Cooling Ligh'ng Webber & Manhews (2008)

31 Business As Usual Scenarios In 2050 with con'nued growth trend: Exponen'al: There would be 7.2 'mes more university students in France. Would need 8 ENSE 3 buildings Linear: There would be 1.7 'mes more university students in France. Would need 2 ENSE 3 buildings What is the probability of historical growth con'nuing?

32 Business as Usual Scenarios Will the mission be met by Con'nua'on of historical trends? Subs'tu'on of Low Carbon Energy for Fossil Fuel? Student Numbers 5% growth BAU Subs'tu'on of Renewable Electric Trucks (20%) Plateau Popula'on and Food Consump'on Flat to 2050

33 Forward Opera'ng Environment We want to make a big change now, then work on the rest as soon as possible

34 Brainstorm: 100 Years in Future A. Seasonal Food Sources B. Local Food Sources C. Biogas Digester of Waste for Deliver Van Fuel D. Ver'cal or Roof-Top Farming E. Electric Train & Sail Ship Supply Chain 1. Low Carbon Menu 2. Bike Waste Food to Farm 3. Solar Cooking, Wood Cooking 4. 80% less Refrigera'on 5. No Packaged Food

35 Strategic Analysis Method We want to go from 100 to 20 units of Fossil Fuel Infrastructure Concepts A. Seasonal Food B. Local Food C. Biogas D. Edible Landscape E. RE Freight Technology, Behavior 1. Menu 2. Waste to Farm 3. RE Cooking 4. 20% Refrig 5. No Package Quan9ta9ve and Qualita9ve Concept Evalua9on

36 Concept Evalua'on Technical Feasibility? Yes or No Fossil Fuel Reduc9on Target 20 Availability for Implementa'on Possibility EROI, Efficiency score 1 5 Cost to Implement score 1 5 Cost of Goods & Services score 1 5 Other Benefits for Students score 1-5 Composite Score: 1 = good 5 = bad

37 Strategic Analysis Method Energy, Technology, Behavior A. Seasonal Food B. Local Food C. Biogas Plant D. Edible Landscape E. RE Freight 1. Menu Not Not 2. Waste to Farm Feasible Feasible RE Cooking 4. 20% Refrig 5. No Package We want to go from 100 to 20 units of Fossil Fuel Infrastructure, Popula9on Concepts Quan'ta've and Qualita've Concept Evalua'on

38 Strategic Analysis Method Energy, Technology, Behavior A. Seasonal Food 1. Menu 29 Yes 2. Waste to Farm 3. RE Cooking 4. 20% Refrig 5. No Package We want to go from 100 to 20 units of Fossil Fuel Infrastructure, Popula9on Concepts 48 Maybe 75 Yes 97 Yes 95 Maybe B. Local Food 15 Yes 60 Possible 67 Yes 90 Yes 87 Maybe C. Biogas Plant Not Feasible D. Edible Landscape Not Feasible E. RE Freight 20 Maybe 87 Maybe 82 Likely Quan'ta've and Qualita've Concept Evalua'on

39 Shis Project Idea: Fossil Free Friday at University Cafeteria Audit the Café Analyze Supply Chains Develop COP21 Menu Build a Solar Cooker Haul Food by Bike or Tram

40 Learn

41 Who is We Young People The Re- Genera'on Experts from all fields who are willing to be honest about the future

42 Re-Defining the Solu'on Space The Work of the Re-Genera9on Removing Coal Mines, Oil Wells, Refineries Regenera'ng Ci'es Re-developing Transport Vehicles & Systems Retro-fiung Buildings and Houses Re-designing Products Re-plan'ng Forests, Restoring wetlands Reclaiming Degraded Land and Water Re-organizing Supply Chains for Return & Recycling Reforming Economies to Secure Value Re-imagining the Future

43 Global Associa'on for Transi'on Engineers We will be Honest with Employers, the Public and Government about the problems and the solu'ons. We will Work on projects in our area of exper'se, and elimina'ng fossil fuel use and GHG emissions will be a project requirement like safety and reliability. We will work on changing exis'ng systems to Step Down Demand of Energy and Materials

44 EROI as a way to be Honest Energy Resource Extraction R 1 S 2R1 Natural Resources Extraction R 2 R 3 S 2R2 Energy Flows Material Flows Goods & Services S 22 S 2 $ Energy Transformation System P N Production GDP Consumption W 1 S 1W1 S 11 S 1P1 S 1 L Labor & Capital W 2 W 3 Waste Heat, Waste Materials, Waste Water, Emissions Energy Sector Economy

45 EROI is Indicator of Development Risk Society (Tax Payers) now and in the future collec'vely take on the risk of R&D. Society accepts different levels of risk, but they need to be informed. EROI is one way to indicate which energy technologies or system developments may not ever provide a return.