Global Tracking Framework for Sustainable Energy & Pathways to Sustainable Energy Project
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1 E N E R G Y Global Tracking Framework for Sustainable Energy & Pathways to Sustainable Energy Project 4 th Session of the Group of Experts on Energy Efficiency 1 November 2017, Geneva
2 Presentation Content Tracking Progress in Sustainable Energy Where are we standing today? Global Tracking Framework: UNECE Progress in Sustainable Energy Pathways to Sustainable Energy How do we achieve sustainable energy? UNECE Project Introduction 2
3 Progress fell short of what is needed to meet 2030 targets Electricity Access: Target: 100%, 2014: 85.3% Access to Clean Cooking Fuels & Techn.: Target: 100%, 2014: 57.4% Share Renewables in TFC: Target: 36%, 2014: 18% Global Tracking Framework Global Results Energy Efficiency: Target: -2.6% CAGR, : -2.1% (compare CAGR : -1.9%) SUSTAINABLE FOR ALL GLOBAL TRACKING FRAMEWORK For all targets: Rate of change insufficient EE closest to meet 2030 targets CAGR = Compound annual growth rate 3
4 Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency & Energy Access UNECE Regional Results Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy progress insufficient 4
5 Energy Efficiency Energy Intensity Decrease in UNECE Sub-Regions Decline from 8MJ/USD in 1990 to 5.1MJ/USD in 2014 (2011ppp) 5
6 Energy Efficiency Demand and Supply Side Perspectives SE4ALL Indicators: 8MJ/USD in 1990 to 5.1MJ/USD in 2014 (2011ppp) 3.9EJ avoided TFC between Supply Side Energy Efficiency Fossil fuel power plant efficiency grew from 36% in 1990 to 41% in 2014 Gas fired generators improved from 37% in 1990 to 49% in 2014, the highest amongst regions Electricity T&D losses declined from 8.2% in 1990 to 7.2% in 2014, the lowest amongst the regions Natural gas T&D fell from 1.2% to 0.6% Significant scope to replace coal with gas and renewable energy power options Demand Side Energy Efficiency Most countries have National Energy Efficiency Action Plans, but limited progress and compliance tracking Building energy efficiency is slow Solid appliance efficiency progress in North America and the EU Largely untapped industry energy management productivity potential Outside EU, vehicle fuel economy not progressing Further value in studying energy efficiency progress, potentials and prospects. 6
7 Project Overview Pathways to Sustainable Energy Timeframe: May 2017 June 2019 (Phase I) Overarching Question How can the UNECE Region attain Sustainable Energy? Key deliverables Development of policy and technology options / technology portfolio Modelling of Sustainable Energy scenarios Definition of adaptive policy pathways Definition of Key Performance Indicators Conceptualization of an early-warning system 2-4 workshops to define & discuss policy options High-level policy dialogue planned for
8 UNECE Region Sub-regional Clusters Global Modelling UNECE modelling Regional subsets North America Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Southeast Europe Caucasus Central Asia Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova Russian Federation Turkey Israel See countries in each cluster here: 8
9 DRAFT Research Questions Draft Deep Dives & Case Studies* (Technology, Policy, Regional) Focal question: How can countries attain sustainable energy by 2050? I II III What is the optimal energy-mix for different sub-regions within the UNECE region in order to help achieve the 2030 Agenda and create a sustainable energy system? - Energy mix - Role of sub-regional energy trade / Regional cooperation - Geopolitical consequences by increased RE upscaling / SE transition (tbd) - Country leadership What can be drivers for the transition towards a sustainable energy system? - Policies - Technologies - Infrastructure - Finance / Investments How to track progress towards achieving and for maintaining a sustainable energy system? - Key performance indicators for continuous improvement & feedback-loop - Early warning system *Case Study: Further analysis of an existing national, sub-regional, sectoral case; Deep Dive: Further analysis of modeling results 9 as part of a research question.
10 Target Definition: Sustainable Energy Three pillars Energy affordability / prices Physical energy Access Energy Services Energy for Quality of Life Energy Security Sustainable Energy Energy Intensity (Final, primary) Share of RE Resilience Robustness Reliability Energy imports vs. Exports Investment requirements Carbon intensity of GDP & of energy Air pollution Land use Water use Waste produced Environmental Protection 10
11 Project Outline Technological Portfolio and Zoom-In (2017) Technology Portfolio Nuclear energy, hard/soft coal, natural gas, oil, biomass, wind, solar, CCS/ CDR, energy efficiency technologies in final energy uses etc. Technology Zoom-In Energy Storage Power2X, CCS / CDR technologies Energy Efficiency 11
12 Committee on Sustainable Energy Flagship project: Pathways to Sustainable Energy Overseen by the Committee Potential to link expert groups work, making use of synergies The project s results can serve the group, and vice versa Committee on Sustainable Energy Group of Experts on Gas Experts Group on Resource Classification Group of Experts on Cleaner Electricity Production from Fossil Fuels Group of Experts on Coal Mine Methane Group of Experts on Renewable Energy Group of Experts on Energy Efficiency 12
13 Project Stakeholder Community Pathways to Sustainable Energy Policy Group Lead: TBC Project Advisory Board CSE Bureau; Expert Groups, Individual Experts Technology Group Lead: TBC Stakeholder Community Project Coordination ECE SED Secretariat Communications Group Lead: TBC Modeller Team Geographical Zoom-In MESSAGE; GCAM Technological Zoom-In Global & regional dive-ins IIASA Global & regional dive-ins PNNL Technology Survey, Portofolio FRAUNHOFER 13
14 Project Timeline Engagement with the Expert Community Status update 26th CSE Geneva, Sep 2017 Expert Workshop U.S., Q (tbc) Expert Workshop Expert Workshop Western-Central Central Asia, Q2/ (tbc) Europe, Q (tbc) Expert Workshop at 9th IFESD Ukraine, Q Preparatory Meeting Geneva, Q (tbc) May 2017 Jun 2019 Modeller Kick-off Workshop Oberhausen, May 2017 Kick-off & Expert Workshop at 8th IFESD Astana, Jun 2017 Policy Dialogue & Workshop at 27 CSE Geneva, Sep 2018 High-level Political Dialogue Q2 (2019) CSE = Committee on Sustainable Energy 14 IFESD = Internat. Forum on Energy for Sust. Dev.
15 Discussion Expert Group s Involvement in the Project Reaction to the presented slides How to strengthen the expert groups involvement in the Project? in the development of policy options in the discussion and formulation of scenarios (workshops) in the development of policy pathways How to formalize the interventions: Work plan Areas: Regulatory and policy dialogue addressing barriers to improve energy efficiency (finance); sharing experiences and best practices to improve energy efficiency in the industry sector Focal point? Involvement in policy or technology group? Planning for 27 th session of the Committee: Sep
16 For more information please visit the Project website: E N E R G Y Thank you! Lisa Tinschert Lisa.Tinschert@unece.org Sustainable Energy Division UNECE Date 27 I 10 I 2017, Geneva
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