World Energy Scenarios: the Grand Transition

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "World Energy Scenarios: the Grand Transition"

Baldwin Warren
6 years ago
Views:

1 World Energy Scenarios: the Grand Transition Institut d Etudes Politiques, Paris 1 st February 2017 Olivier APPERT président Jean Eudes MONCOMBLE secrétaire général CONSEIL Conseil Français FRANÇAISde DEl Energie L ÉNERGIE

2 About the Conseil Français de l Énergie STUDIES PUBLICATIONS EVENTS RESEARCH Founded in 1923, French Committee of the World Energy Council Promote the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all people All resources and all energy technologies, both on supply and demand side 2

3 About the World Energy Council Principal impartial network of leaders and practitioners Almost 100 countries (2/3 of developing countries) Over 3000 member organizations 3

4 23 rd World Energy Congress, Istanbul 4

The Key Statistics from the 23 rd World Energy Congress (9-13 October 2016) Embracing New Frontiers 5,500 delegates from 151 countries 4 Heads of State 56 government ministers from 48 countries 266

5 The Key Statistics from the 23 rd World Energy Congress (9-13 October 2016) Embracing New Frontiers 5,500 delegates from 151 countries 4 Heads of State 56 government ministers from 48 countries 266 speakers from 78 countries 50 sessions over 4 days : Vision and Scenarios for the Future Identifying the Business Opportunities: Resources and Technologies Policy Solutions to Secure Prosperity: Embracing the Trilemma Africa: Securing a Sustainable Energy Future 75 Future Energy Leaders Programme participants from 56 countries 34 sponsors, ± 2000 exhibitors, 42 media partners 5

6 World Energy Scenarios Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock 6

7 Starting point Factors that shaped world energy Population and labour force growth New technologies and productivity Environmental priorities International governance and geopolitics Energy policies and th role of the state 7

8 Starting point Factors that will shaped world energy Population and labour force growth New technologies and productivity Environmental priorities International governance and geopolitics Energy policies and th role of the state 8

9 Pre-determined Elements of the Grand Transition Population / Workforce New Technologies Factors shaped world energy Global population grew 2x (1.7% p.a.) ICT revolution Productivity growth rate of 1.7% p.a. Pre-determined elements Global population will grow 1.4x (0.7% p.a.) Pervasive digitalisation; combinatorial impacts and productivity paradox Planetary Boundaries 1,900+ Gt CO 2 consumed 1,000 Gt CO 2 consumed to 2100 for the 2 C target Shifts in Power Rapid economic rise of developing nations Growing role for global institutions, e.g. UNFCCC, IMF, WTO, G : India is most populous country : China is the world s largest economy 9

10 Critical Uncertainties of the Grand Transition Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock Productivity / Economic Growth GDP 3.3% p.a. ( ) Digital boost Tech innovation GDP per capita 2060 US$ 30,600 GDP 2.9% p.a. ( ) Sustainable growth Circular economies GDP per capita 2060 US$ 25,200 GDP 1.7% p.a. ( ) Fragmented markets Local content GDP per capita 2060 US$ 14,700 Climate Challenge Cumulative carbon emission ,491 Gt CO 2 Cumulative carbon emission ,165 Gt CO 2 Cumulative carbon emission ,642 Gt CO 2 International Governance Economics focused international governance Broad-based international governance Fractured and weak international system Tools for Action Markets States Patchwork of states and markets 10

Three Scenarios Modern Jazz Market-driven approach to achieving individual access and affordability of energy through economic growth Unfinished Symphony Government-driven approach to achieving

11 Three Scenarios Modern Jazz Market-driven approach to achieving individual access and affordability of energy through economic growth Unfinished Symphony Government-driven approach to achieving sustainability through internationally coordinated politics and practices Hard Rock Fragmented approach driven by desire for energy security in a world with low global cooperation Market mechanisms Technology innovation Energy access for all Strong policy Long-term planning Unified climate action Fragmented policies Local content Best-fit local solutions 11

1 THE WORLD S PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH will slow and per capita energy demand will peak before 2030 due to unprecedented efficiencies created by new technologies and more stringent

12 1 THE WORLD S PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH will slow and per capita energy demand will peak before 2030 due to unprecedented efficiencies created by new technologies and more stringent energy policies. Slower Primary Energy Demand Growth Per Capita Primary Energy Demand (TOE) 2,0 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1, History Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock 12

2 DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY will double to 2060.

13 2 DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY will double to Meeting this demand with cleaner energy sources will require substantial infrastructure investments and systems integration to deliver benefits to all consumers. Electricity Generation (TWh) 13

14 3 THE PHENOMENAL RISE OF SOLAR AND WIND ENERGY will continue at an unprecedented rate and create both new opportunities and challenges for energy systems. Solar Electricity Generation ( 000 TWh) Wind Electricity Generation ( 000 TWh) ,2 0,7 Modern Jazz ,7 8,8 Unfinished Symphony ,9 9,3 Hard Rock ,3 5,6 14

15 Electricity mix Coal Coal CCS Oil Gas Gas CCS No fossil Geother. Wind Solar Nuclear 2014 Modern Jazz 2060 Hydro Bio Bio CCS Conseil Français de l Énergie Unfinished Symphony 2060 Hard Rock

16 4 DEMAND PEAKS FOR COAL AND OIL have the potential to take the world from Stranded Assets to Stranded Resources. Coal Demand ( 000 MTOE) 6 Oil Demand (mb/d) 110 Natural Gas Demand ( 000 MTOE) History Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock 16

17 Energy mix 2014 Modern Jazz 2060 Coal Oil Gas No fossil Others ren renewable Nuclear Hydro Bio Unfinished Symphony 2060 Hard Rock

18 5 TRANSITIONING GLOBAL TRANSPORT forms one of the hardest obstacles to overcome in an effort to decarbonise future energy systems. Electric Vehicles of Light-duty Vehicle Fleets Modern Jazz 2060 Unfinished Symphony 2060 Hard Rock

19 Diversification of light-duty vehicle fleet 19

6 LIMITING GLOBAL WARMING to no more than a 2 C increase will require an exceptional and enduring effort, far beyond already pledged commitments and with very high carbon prices.

20 6 LIMITING GLOBAL WARMING to no more than a 2 C increase will require an exceptional and enduring effort, far beyond already pledged commitments and with very high carbon prices. Annual Carbon Emissions (Gt CO 2 ) Cumulative Carbon Emissions (Gt CO 2 ) History Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock IPCC 2 C Target

21 6 LIMITING GLOBAL WARMING 21

22 7 ENERGY TRILEMMA IN 2060 Modern Jazz 2060 Unfinished Symphony 2060 Hard Rock 2060 Conseil World Energy Français Council de l Énergie

23 Methodology of the Global Scenarios 1 Executive interviews, three exploratory workshops, text analytics Agree 1 on Critical 2 Trends Define Alternative Dynamics 6 3 Develop Distinct Scenarios 2 3 scenario framing workshops supported by expert insights from 100+ global experts Two Scenario building workshops and eight regional workshops to test ideas Run Model & Analyze Outputs 4 4 Refinement of trends and mapping to energy drivers 5 Define Model Inputs Develop Dynamic Model 5 6 Historical analysis and benchmarking to quantify Source: key Accenture input Strategy drivers GMM MARKAL modelling supported by robust quality control process World Energy Council

24 World Energy Scenario Workshops Global Scenario Study Group Workshops (London: Mar 15, May 15, July 15, Sep 15, Jan 16, April 16 ) EU Regional Scenarios (Paris: Mar 16 ) 22 nd World Energy Congress Launch of Global Scenarios (Istanbul: Oct 16 ) North America Regional Workshop (DC: 4-5 May 16 ) China WELD (Beijing: March 16 ) Latin America Regional Workshop (Rio: 17 Nov 15) 2015 WEC Executive Assembly Presentation of initial Global Scenario Findings, e-mobility and Natural Gas Reports (Addis Ababa: Oct 15 ) India Energy Congress India Regional Workshop (Delhi: Jan 15 ) Africa Indaba African Regional Workshops (Johannesburg: Feb 15, Feb 16 ) Asian Clean Energy Forum / WELS Smart Innovation and LNG presentations (Manila: Jun 15 ) World Energy Council

MARKAL model Efficiency Growth Inputs Critical Insights on

Examples Electricity Generation Scenario Outputs Scenario A

Multi-Variable Dynamic Model Regional Resources Greenhouse

Model Constraints Learning Curves Regulatory Policies Resource

25 MARKAL model Efficiency Growth Inputs Critical Insights on Dynamics Between Variables Published Results Raw Data Outputs Examples Electricity Generation Scenario Outputs Scenario A Resource Availability Regulation / Policies Key Assumptions Multi-Variable Dynamic Model Regional Resources Greenhouse Emissions Primary Energy Final Consumption Energy Intensity Model Constraints Learning Curves Regulatory Policies Resource Availabilities World Energy Council

26 World Energy Scenarios: the Grand Transition Institut d Etudes Politiques, Paris 1 st February 2017 Olivier APPERT président Jean Eudes MONCOMBLE secrétaire général CONSEIL Conseil Français FRANÇAISde DEl Energie L ÉNERGIE World Energy Council 2016

North American Perspective on the Grand Transition

North American Perspective on the Grand Transition North America Regional Forum Ged Davis 12 September 2017 Mexico City World Energy Scenario Workshops Global Scenario Study Group Workshops (London: Mar