Climate Change Impact Assessment over West Central Florida using CLAREnCE10 data from FSU

Transcription

1 Climate Change Impact Assessment over West Central Florida using CLAREnCE1 data from FSU Results based on 3 GCMs and 3 CDF construction tech. for bias-correction Feb.. 13 Syewoon Hwang, Wendy Graham

2 Water Institute Research Raw GCMs or Reanalysis Observation Reanalysis GCMs_retro. GCMs_future R1, R, ERA, CR CMIP3:,,, etc. Bias-corrected GCMs Downscaling Observation Statistical method; BCSD, SDBC, BCCA, BCSA, etc. Dynamical downscaling MM, RSM, etc. Downscaled GCM.8.6 MeanPrec. (Raw-+RCM: ) Bias-correction Application for Tampa Bay region Hydrologic model (IHM)

3 Presentation outline Assessing climate change impact on hydrology using Dynamically downscaled GCMs Data (CLAREnCE1) 3 dynamically downscaled GCMs AR A scenario bias-correction 3 Different CDF development methods Hydrologic modeling Integrated Hydrologic Model Tampa Bay region, West central Florida Results I: climate information Daily Precipitation Daily max. and min. Temperature Results II: hydrologic implication ET estimations Mean Streamflow, 7Q1 high/low flow Delta method GCMs_retro. Downscaling Using spatially averaged, sub-basin based observation GCMs_future CMIP3:,, <- AR A scenario Dynamical downscaling RSM: COAPS, FSU Bias-correction Application Hydrologic model (IHM)

4 Data 3 GCMs + Regional Spectral Model (RSM),,, and Spatial resolution (1kmx1km) over southeastern US Variables: hourly Prec., humidity, wind speed, etc., daily Tmax/min data Daily bias-corrected Prec. data are available Retrospective simulation period: Future simulation (AR A scenario): 39-69

5 Bias-correction (BC) Methodology Future Bias Correction methods: CDF mapping CDF: 1 Example 1 Sim_retro. BC_retro + Sim_future BC-Sim_future raw1 Bias-corrected Sim_future obs raw 3 different CDFs 1. Monthly CDF ( 3 data/yr). CDF for moving window (± 1 days, 31 data/yr) 3. CDF for moving window (± 3 days, 61 data/yr) Precipitation

6 I. Temperature Spatial distribution of mean temperature (map comparison) Annual cycle of Monthly mean Tmax and Tmin Differences between the simulations for 1969~1999 & 39~69

7 T min spatial distribution Observation MeanTmin. (Gobs: ) C 1. C ~1999 MeanTmin. (Raw-+RCM: ) MeanTmax. (Raw-+RCM: ) Approx. +`C = Approx. +`C = ~69 MeanTmin. (Raw-+RCM: 39-69) MeanTmax. (Raw-+RCM: ) MeanTmin. (Raw-+RCM: ) Approx. +`C = MeanTmin. (Raw-+RCM: 39-69)

8 T max spatial distribution Observation MeanTmax. (Gobs: ) C C ~1999 MeanTmax. (Raw-+RCM: ) MeanTmax. (Raw-+RCM: ) Approx. +3`C = Approx. +3`C = ~69 MeanTmax. (Raw-+RCM: 39-69) MeanTmax. (Raw-+RCM: 39-69) MeanTmax. (Raw-+RCM: ) Approx. +`C = MeanTmax. (Raw-+RCM: )

9 mean temperature ('C) mean temperature ('C) mean Tmax ('C) mean temperature ('C) mean temperature ('C) mean temperature ('C) 1.1 Mean daily T max & T min Raw results obs_tmax Retro. _Tmax Future_Tmax obs_tmin Retro. _Tmin Future_Tmin 3 T max 3 T max 3 T max 1 T min 1 T min 1 T min Bias-corrected results 3 T max 3 T max 3 T max 1 T min 1 T min 1 T min

10 mean change of raw Tmin ('C) mean change of BC Tmin ('C) mean change of raw Tmax ('C) mean change of BC Tmax ('C) 1. Mean temperature change: 39~ ~1999 T max Raw results Raw results Bias-corrected results Bias-corrected results monthly ±1 ±3 monthly ±1 ±3 monthly ±1 ±3 T min Raw results Bias-corrected results monthly ±1 ±3 monthly ±1 ±3 monthly ±1 ±3

11 II. Precipitation Spatial distribution of mean precipitation (map comparison) Annual cycle of Monthly mean precipitiation Differences between the simulations for 1969~1999 & 39~69

12 .1 Raw Precipitation results Observation MeanPrec. (Gobs: ) mm ~1999 MeanPrec. (Raw-+RCM: ) Way off!! underestimated mm > mm 39~69 MeanPrec. (Raw-+RCM: 39-69) Even lower mm MeanPrec. (Raw-+RCM: ) = MeanPrec. (Raw-+RCM: 39-69) Raw results significantly underestimate the mean precp. by.mm over the region Raw and results overestimate by 1~mm Based on the future scenario, precipitation may decrease or increase MeanPrec. (Raw-+RCM: ) = <.6.. MeanPrec. (Raw-+RCM: 39-69)

13 mean precipiatation (mm) mean precipiatation (mm). Mean daily precipitation Raw results 8 obs Retro. _Raw Future_Raw 8 obs Retro. _Raw Future_Raw 8 obs Retro. _Raw Future_Raw Bias-corrected results obs Retro._ Retro._Moving window CDF (±1) Retro._Moving window CDF (±3) Future_ Future_Moving window CDF (±1) Future_Moving window CDF (±3)

14 mean change of BC precip. (mm) mean change of raw precip. (mm).3 Mean precipitation change: 39~ ~1999 Raw results 3 Raw results wet projection dry projection Rainy wet season -3 Bias-corrected results Bias-corrected results monthly ±1 ±3 monthly ±1 ±3 monthly ±1 ±3

15 III. Hydrologic implications Annual ET, ET fraction (ET/Precip.) Mean streamflow Design flow estimations

16 Integrated Hydrologic Model TBW and SWFWMD commissioned the development and application of an integrated surface water/groundwater model for the Tampa Bay Region. The Integrated Hydrologic Model (IHM) was developed which integrates the EPA Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran for surface-water modeling with the US Geological Survey MODFLOW96 for groundwater modeling. Ross et al., (IHM theory manual)

17 Tampa Bay region

18 th_bc ±1 CDF ±3 CDF th_bc ±1 CDF ±3 CDF th_bc ±1 CDF ±3 CDF th_bc ±1 CDF ±3 CDF th_bc ±1 CDF ±3 CDF th_bc ±1 CDF ±3 CDF Evapotranspiration (mm/year) ET/P (%) 3.1 ET estimations Annual average ET (mm/year) ET fraction (ET/Precp.) st 1st 1st 1st 1st 1st cal. cal.

19 Mean streamflow (m3s-1) Mean streamflow (m3s-1) Mean streamflow (m3s-1) Mean streamflow (m3s-1) Mean streamflow (m3s-1) Mean streamflow (m3s-1) Mean streamflow (m3s-1) 3. mean streamflow (Alafia River station) Retrospective simulation results 3 1 Obs (1989-) Cal (1989-) _th_bc1 _th_bc1 _th_bc1 Alafia River Future simulations Obs (1989-) Cal (1989-) _1st_BC1 _1st_BC _1st_BC9 _1st_ Obs (1989-) Cal (1989-) _1st_BC1 _1st_BC _1st_BC9 _1st_ Alafia River Alafia River Streamflow Change (Future-retro.) _1st-th_BC1 Alafia River _1st-th_BC _1st-th_BC9 _1st-th 1stth- monthly _1st-th_BC1 _1st-th_BC _1st-th_BC9 _1st-th_ Alafia River BC1: bias-correction using BC: bias-correction using ±1 CDF BC9: bias-correction using ± 3 CDF 3 1 Obs (1989-) Cal (1989-) _1st_BC1 _1st_BC _1st_BC9 _1st_ Alafia River _1st-th_BC1 _1st-th_BC _1st-th_BC9 _1st-th_ Alafia River -

20 Mean streamflow (m3s-1) mean change of BC precip. (mm) Mean streamflow (m3s-1) Mean streamflow (m3s-1) 3. mean streamflow (Alafia River station) 1 Streamflow Change (Future-retro.) _1st-th_BC1 Alafia River _1st-th_BC _1st-th_BC9 _1st-th 1stth- monthly 3 Precipitation Change (Future-retro.) _1st-th_BC1 _1st-th_BC _1st-th_BC9 _1st-th_ Alafia River _1st-th_BC1 _1st-th_BC _1st-th_BC9 _1st-th_ Alafia River -1 -

21 Obs. Cal. th_bc ±1 CDF ±3 CDF th_bc ±1 CDF ±3 CDF th_bc ±1 CDF ±3 CDF Obs. Cal. th_bc ±1 CDF ±3 CDF th_bc ±1 CDF ±3 CDF th_bc ±1 CDF ±3 CDF 7Q1_HighFlow (m3/s) 7Q_LowFlow (m3/s) 3.3 Design flow estimation 7Qxx high (low) flow means the average maximum (minimum) flow for seven consecutive days that has probable recurrence interval of once in xx years, respectively. 3 7Q1 high flow Alafia River 1. 7Q low flow Alafia River 1.6 1st 1st 1st 1st 1st 1st

22 Conclusions Used 3 dynamically downscaled GCMs (i.e.,, Had3CM, ), 3 CDF construction strategies for CDF mapping bias-correction, and monthly method for future scenarios Differences among GCM projections overwhelmed differences among bias correction techniques. Temperature Results All GCMs successfully reproduced spatial distribution and mean climatology of retrospective daily temperature All consistently estimated -3 o C increase of mean temperature for future (39~69) under future A scenario. Precipitation Results Dynamically downscaled retrospective predictions are way off! Retrospective and reproduce seasonal cycle of precipitation.(e.g., wet summer) Different GCMs produced conflicting precipitation change estimates for future A scenarios (some higher, some lower)

23 Conclusions continued Hydrologic implications Even with consistent increased temperature estimates, differences among future precipitation estimates propagate into significant differences in future hydrologic predictions ( i.e. ET, mean streamflow predictions, and 7Q1 estimates). Precipitation signal overwhelms temperature signal in predicting hydrologic implications of projected future changes. Q. How many GCMs are required to get an accurate representation of range of possible future precipitation projections and thus range of possible hydrologic change? Q. Should we continue to use in our analysis?

24 Possible Future Work Consider other climate model products & GHG scenarios NARCCAP, CMIP, COAPS products, etc.? Other methodologies to downscale/bias-correct climate model results? Statistical downscaling methods in order to increase number of GCMs considered? For other regions of Florida? Using hydrologic models from other agencies

25 Supplements

26 Bias-correction (BC) Methodology Future Bias Correction methods: CDF mapping CDF: 1 Example 1 Sim_retro. Sim_future BC_retro + Sim_future Sim_retro. BC-Sim_future Bias-corrected Sim_future raw1 Bias-corrected Sim_future BC-Sim_future raw obs 3 different CDFs 1. Monthly CDF ( 3data). CDF for moving window (± 3 days, 61data) 3. CDF for moving window (± 1 days, 31data) Precipitation

27 STD of daily Tmin ('C) STD of daily Tmax ('C) 1.3 Standard deviation (Stdev.) of daily T max & T min T max Raw results 8 6 obs Retro. _Raw Future_Raw 8 6 obs Retro. _Raw Future_Raw 8 6 obs Retro. _Raw Future_Raw 8 6 T min obs Retro. _Raw Future_Raw 8 6 obs Retro. _Raw Future_Raw 8 6 obs Retro. _Raw Future_Raw

28 STD change of raw Tmin ('C) STD change of BC Tmin ('C) STD change of raw Tmax ('C) STD change of BC Tmax ('C) 1. Mean change of Stdev. : 39~ ~1999 Raw results Bias-corrected results T 1 max -1 Raw results 1-1 Bias-corrected results monthly ±1 ±3 monthly ±1 ±3 monthly ±1 ±3 T min 1 Raw results 1 Bias-corrected results monthly ±1 ±3 monthly ±1 ±3 monthly ± ±3

29 std. of daily precipiatation (mm) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec std. of daily precip. (mm). Stdev. of daily precipitation 1 Raw results obs Retro. _Raw Future_Raw 1 obs Retro. _Raw Future_Raw 1 obs Retro. _Raw Future_Raw Bias-corrected results obs Retro._ Retro._Moving window CDF (±1) Retro._Moving window CDF (±3) Future_ Future_Moving window CDF (±1) Future_Moving window CDF (±3)

30 STD change of raw precip. (mm) STD change of BC precip. (mm) mean change of raw precip. (mm) mean change of BC precip. (mm).3 Precipitation change: 39~ ~1999 Mean change Raw results Raw results wet projection dry projection Rainy wet season Bias-corrected results Bias-corrected results monthly ±1 ±3 monthly ±1 ±3 monthly ±1 ±3 Stdev. change 1 Raw results 1 Bias-corrected results monthly ±1 ±3 monthly ±1 ±3 monthly ±1 ±3

31 th_bc ±1 CDF ±3 CDF th_bc ±1 CDF ±3 CDF th_bc ±1 CDF ±3 CDF T+1 T+ T+3 th_bc ±1 CDF ±3 CDF th_bc ±1 CDF ±3 CDF th_bc ±1 CDF ±3 CDF T+1 T+ T+3 Evapotranspiration (mm/year) ET/P (%) 3.1 ET estimations Annual average ET (mm/year) ET rate (ET/Precp.) st 1st 1st cal. ±T test 1st 1st 1st cal. ±T test

32 Mean streamflow (m3s-1) Mean streamflow (m3s-1) Mean streamflow (m3s-1) Mean streamflow (m3s-1) Mean streamflow (m3s-1) Mean streamflow (m3s-1) Mean streamflow (m3s-1) 3. mean streamflow (Hillsborough River station) Retrospective simulation results 3 1 Obs (1989-) Cal (1989-) _th_bc1 _th_bc1 _th_bc1 Hills. River Future simulations Obs (1989-) Cal (1989-) _1st_BC1 _1st_BC _1st_BC9 _1st_ Obs (1989-) Cal (1989-) _1st_BC1 _1st_BC _1st_BC9 _1st_ Hills. River Hills. River _1st-th_BC1 Hills. MB _1st-th_BC _1st-th_BC9 _1st-th 1stth- monthly Streamflow Change (Future-retro.) _1st-th_BC1 _1st-th_BC _1st-th_BC9 _1st-th_ Hills. MB BC1: bias-correction using BC1: bias-correction using ±1 CDF BC1: bias-correction using ± 3 CDF 3 Obs (1989-) Cal (1989-) _1st_BC1 _1st_BC _1st_BC9 _1st_ Hills. River - 1 _1st-th_BC1 _1st-th_BC _1st-th_BC9 _1st-th_ Hills. MB 1-1 -

33 7Q1_HighFlow (m3/s) 7Q_HighFlow (m3/s) 7Q1_HighFlow (m3/s) 7Q_HighFlow (m3/s) 3.3 Design flow estimation 3 7Q1 and 7Q means the average maximum flow for seven consecutive days that has probable recurrence interval of once in ten and two years, respectively. 7Q1 Alafia River 1 7Q Alafia River 1 1 Hillsborough River 9 Hillsborough River 1 6