The cq2 collaboration : a task force for improved assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology and hydropower in Québec
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1 The cq2 collaboration : a task force for improved assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology and hydropower in Québec Catherine Guay Hydro-Québec (IREQ), Varennes, QC, Canada guay.catherine@ireq.ca Thanks to : Marie Minville (IREQ), Marco Braun (Ouranos), Blaise Gauvin St-Denis (Ouranos), Simon Ricard (MDDELCC), Simon Lachance-Cloutier (MDDELCC), Louis-Alexandre Leclaire (IREQ), René Roy (Ouranos/IREQ) Adaptation Canada, Wednesday April 13th, Shaw Center, Ottawa, ON, Canada
2 The cq2 collaboration : a task force for improved assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology and hydropower in Québec 1 Generating hydropower under a changing climate 2 The cq2 collaboration a. Description and objectives b. Phase I ( ) c. Phase II ( ) 3 Conclusion and future work Adaptation Canada, Wednesday April 13th, Shaw Center, Ottawa
3 1 Generating hydropower under a changing climate
4 1 Generating hydropower under a changing climate Climate obviously impacts the water cycle as well as the energy demand, but also the sustainability of the infrastructures and safety of working personnel Historic flood in Saguenay 10 deaths more than 1700 houses and 900 cottages destroyed dams and dykes damaged 1998 Major ice storm 25 deaths over 1K electrical pylons and 35K wooden utility poles collapsed 4M people without electricity
5 1 Generating hydropower under a changing climate Departure from the mean annual value (TWh) Mean : 211,8 TWh Std deviation : 20.2 TWh Energy deficit
6 1 Generating hydropower under a changing climate In this context, Hydro-Québec must assess the impacts of CC on current and future hydropower generation and must identify and implement adaptation measures in order to limit the adverse effects or take advantage of climate change. In order to achieve this, HQ has been involved in Ouranos since 2001 through various projects, and particularly through an IREQ strategic research project since 2004.
7 2 The cq2 collaboration
8 2a. Description and objectives > Collaboration regrouping : Direction expertise hydrique (MDDELCC) Hydro-Québec (IREQ and HQE) Ouranos Rio Tinto Alcan (RTA) > Objectives : Share and identify best practices in hydrological impact studies Understand the impact of different modelling choices Deliver a concerted message about the impact of climate change on the hydrology in Québec
9 2b. Phase I ( ) > Modelling area 305 watersheds 87 HQ 202 MDDELCC 17 Rio Tinto Alcan
10 2b. Phase I ( ) Modelling cascade : GHG emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B1) Global climate models (CMIP3) Regional climate models (NARCCAP and Ouranos) Source : Marco Braun, Ouranos 435 scenarios/watershed Bias correction Obs. perturbation Hydrological models (HSAMI, Hydrotel, CEQUEAU, SSARR) Hydrological variables in 2050 Source : Marco Braun, Ouranos
11 2b. Phase I ( ) Control period 2050 Horizon Communicating the results : X 435 scenarios ΔQ mean Median change Direction of change % Very probable increase % Probable increase % No signal % Probable decrease Change Change 0 10 % Very probable decrease
12 2b. Phase I ( ) Climate change
13 2b. Phase I ( ) Change in mean annual streamflow
14 2b. Phase I ( ) Change in seasonal contribution to annual streamflow Tapez une équation ici.
15 Direction Change 2b. Phase I ( ) Winter Spring Summer Autumn Tapez une équation ici.
16 2b. Phase I ( ) Change in maximum snow accumulation
17 2c. Phase II ( ) RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6, 8.5) Changes in the second phase (or addition to existing database) Different modelling cascade inputs Reduction of watershed number Global climate models (CMIP5) RCM Bias correction Obs. perturbation Hydrological models (HSAMI, Hydrotel) Hydrological variables in 2050 and 2080, and for continous time series
18 2c. Phase II ( ) The hydrological sunset : an example of continuous time series analyses Inspired by Raster-based streamflow analysis, R. Koehler, 2004
19 3 Conclusion and future work A concerted message on the impacts of CC on hydrology in QC was delivered at the 2012 Ouranos symposium in a joint session The cq2 database is available and was contributed to several projects Ex. : BaySys, studies for the updating of operating rules Ungoing analysis of modelling choices (G. Seiller, U. Laval) Next round : CORDEX ensemble Guay, C., Minville, M., & Braun, M. (2015). A global portrait of hydrological changes at the 2050 horizon for the province of Québec. Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue Canadienne Des Ressources Hydriques, 40(3),
20 Thank you very much!
21 Season separation
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