Effects of Temperature, Precipitation and Wind. 8 th of November 2007

Transcription

1 Effects of Temperature, Precipitation and Wind on the EUA Prices of the Second Phase IFS Meteo Seminar, Milan 8 th of November 2007 Tobias Federico, Managing Director

2 Energy Brainpool s Clients and Models Clients Power and Carbon models (EU27) Offices Key facts: Headquarter Berlin 8 Employees Clients in 11 nations

3 Agenda Modelling CO 2 Emissions in the EU Power Sector Weather Effects on the Cumulated Emissions Temperature Behaviour (Inner & Cross Country Correlations) Temperature Effect on Energy Prices Effect of Wind Energy Production Hydro Production within Europe Possible Price Scenarios

4 Agenda Modelling CO 2 Emissions in the EU Power Sector Weather Effects on the Cumulated Emissions Temperature Behaviour (Inner & Cross Country Correlations) Temperature Effect on Energy Prices Effect of Wind Energy Production Hydro Production within Europe Possible Price Scenarios

5 Merit Order Assembly Short-run Marginal Costs [ /MWh] Demand Cumulative CO 2 Emissions [t CO 2 ] Sort available power units ascending by short-run marginal costs cumulating their capacity Wind/Hydro Nuclear Peat / Lignite Hard Coal GasCC Gas/Oil Cumulative Available Capacity [MW]

6 Hourly Demand and CO 2 Emissions Cumulative CO 2 Emissions Time highest emission in hour th hour Demand Dem mand Time Time Demand lowest emissions in hour 5 Emissions Time Demand Capacity Wind / Hydro / Nuclear / Import 1 st hour Peat /Lignite Hard Coal GasCC Gas/Oil Cumulative Available Capacity, Demand lowest demand highest demand

7 Agenda Modelling CO 2 Emissions in the EU Power Sector Weather Effects on the Cumulated Emissions Temperature Behaviour (Inner & Cross Country Correlations) Temperature Effect on Energy Prices Effect of Wind Energy Production Hydro Production within Europe Possible Price Scenarios

8 Weather Dependency of CO 2 Emissions [t CO 2 ] Wind & Hydro Temperature Sensitivity Cumulated CO 2 Emissions Max. Emissions Min. Emissions Wind & Hydro Nuclear Lignite Hard Coal CCGT GT (Gas/Oil) MW Cumulating both effects has a significant influence on CO 2 Emissions Modellierung von CO 2 -Emissionen

9 Agenda Modelling CO 2 Emissions in the EU Power Sector Weather Effects on the Cumulated Emissions Temperature Behaviour (Inner & Cross Country Correlations) Temperature Effect on Energy Prices Effect of Wind Energy Production Hydro Production within Europe Possible Price Scenarios

10 Metrologic Modelling based on 1 Grid (Temp./Prec.) Real Values Normal Values

11 Cross Country Correlations for Temperatures Countries GridValues Country_ID GridValue_ID cm cid 1 cid 2 cid 3 cid 4 cid 5 cid 6 cid 7 cid 8 cid 9 cid 10 cid 11 cid 12 cid 13 cid 14 cid 15 cid Cross country correlations of historical temperatures

12 Monthly Correlation of Temperatures Countries GridValues Country_ID GridValue_ID cm m1 m2 m3 m Effects up to four month on normal values for January

13 Load Sensitivities Power demand changes due to weather effects: EU 27 country specific temperature sensitivity Temperature sensitivity changes due to seasonality Different temperatures included: normal values, historic/scenario values Power demand changes due to economic growth: Linear increase of power demand over time

14 Agenda Modelling CO 2 Emissions in the EU Power Sector Weather Effects on the Cumulated Emissions Temperature Behaviour (Inner & Cross Country Correlations) Temperature Effect on Energy Prices Effect of Wind Energy Production Hydro Production within Europe Possible Price Scenarios

15 Temperature Dependence of Gas Prices Residual Actual Fitted Seasonality effect : ct/mwh per C Temperature deviation, Day AVG: ct/mwh per C Temperature deviation, 100 Day AVG: -45 ct/mwh per C

16 Fuel Switching Price The fuel switching price depends on power plant specifications High efficiency CCGT substitute the less effective coal power plant SRMC Fuel Switching Price Coal power plants GT Gas SRMC 2 SRMC 1 Fuel Switching Price CCGT Gas Capacity 1 Capacity 2 Coal Efficiency Gas Efficiencyi Capacity

17 Fuel Switching Potential Summary Most flexible measure within the EU ETS 400 Applies to the power sector 275 Depends strongly on flexibility of existing overcapacities Reduction potential strongly 25 depends on coal, gas and EUA prices CO2 Price Gas Price Figure: Reduction potential in the EU ETS for given coal prices (5 /MWh) 200 Red. [Mt]

18 Agenda Modelling CO 2 Emissions in the EU Power Sector Weather Effects on the Cumulated Emissions Temperature Behaviour (Inner & Cross Country Correlations) Temperature Effect on Energy Prices Effect of Wind Energy Production Hydro Production within Europe Possible Price Scenarios

19 Modelling Renewable Power Generation Most renewable power generation has (different) intermitting behavior due to weather conditions Frequency of possible output change differs considerably depending on power source Increase of installed capacity within the second phase of the EU ETS is a possibility emissions abatement Wind energy offers biggest growth potential Off-shore in countries with already large on-shore installed wind power capacity On-shore in countries with so far small installed wind capacities Hydro potential ti mostly exploited, solar slowly l growing, bio mass limited Hydro production depends on flow & snow cover models

20 Impact of Additional Wind Power Generation Cumulative CO 2 Emissions Additional Wind power generation (Additional zero emission generation) Demand Effective emission reduction by wind power Emissions without wind power Emissions with wind power Actual emissions Wind / Hydro / Nuclear / Import Peat /Lignite Hard Coal Gas_CC Gas/Oil Available Capacity [MW]

21 Modelling Wind Power Generation Wind power generation data and frequency distribution Capacity and wind speed of importance Yearly Generation Monthly Generation % of Yearly Ge eneration DK FI NO SE Hourly Wind Generation 10 Winter Spring Summer Fall Seasonal Distribution of Wind Power Generation [Holttinen 2005] Seasonal Wind Profiles for Calculation of Hourly Generation [Holttinen 2005]

22 Agenda Modelling CO 2 Emissions in the EU Power Sector Weather Effects on the Cumulated Emissions Temperature Behaviour (Inner & Cross Country Correlations) Temperature Effect on Energy Prices Effect of Wind Energy Production Hydro Production within Europe Possible Price Scenarios

23 Correlations for Temperature and Precipitation Normal and actual precipitation is given for each grid point Correlation between temperatures and precipitation is integrated by the reciprocal correlation * * * Countries GridValues Country_ID GridValue_ID cm Fact

24 Approach for a Hydrology Model alt titude + tempe erature - Precipitations turns into hydro power Precipitation Evaporation Sublimation Snow Cover Geoprofile Temperature Profile Coverage Flow Direction Hydroproduction

25 River Flow and Lakes in Europe 1x1 km grid Hight profile Vegitation Storage and natural lakes City structure National borders due to separation of hydro production balance

26 Hydro Flow Direction Water level in rivers Flow speed Hydro production along the rivers Snow coverage Snow density approximation Glaciers not included (yet)

27 Integration of Temperature Grid (With Altitudes) High resolution of temperature Integration of evaporation depending di on vegetation Integration of sublimation Melting water effects

28 Final Result: European Hydro Model Surface water flow and effects modeled Temperature and precipitation influences integrated t Water level in rivers gives run of river production Calibration with national hydro production

29 Agenda Modelling CO 2 Emissions in the EU Power Sector Weather Effects on the Cumulated Emissions Temperature Behaviour (Inner & Cross Country Correlations) Temperature Effect on Energy Prices Effect of Wind Energy Production Hydro Production within Europe Possible Price Scenarios

30 Possible EUA Price Scenarios Basis Scenario AVG modeled EUA Price: 24,8 Normal weather with most likely primary energy prices (Current future prices), little growth rates, no changes in new power plant construction, normal growth rate of installed wind energy, CER standard inflow, abatements within the industry sector

31 High Emission Scenario

32 Possible EUA Price Scenarios Basis Scenario AVG modeled EUA Price: 24,8 Normal weather with most likely primary energy prices (Current future prices), little growth rates, no changes in new power plant construction, normal growth rate of installed wind energy, CER standard inflow, abatements within the industry sector High Emission Scenario AVG modeled EUA Price: 31,3 A series of cold winters in continental Europe with the same series of warm summers in the Mediterranean area under the basis scenario assumptions, but with temperature sensitivities of gas prices Low Emission Scenario AVG modeled EUA Price: 15,6 A series of warm winters with the same series of cold summers under the basis scenario assumptions, but with temperature sensitivities of gas prices

33 Energy Brainpool Kontakt: Energy Brainpool Tobias Federico Heylstr Berlin Tel.: +49 / 30/ Fax: +49/ 30/ tobias.federico@energybrainpool.com