Climate Change and Resiliency: Perspectives from Metrolinx

Transcription

1 Climate Change and Resiliency: Perspectives from Metrolinx Dr. Quentin Chiotti Senior Advisor, Sustainability ACT CANADA SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY SUMMIT OCTOBER 31, 2017

2 TDM AND CLIMATE RESILIENCY: VICTORIA TRANSPORT POLICY INSTITUTE What is Resilience? At an individual level people have transportation options that satisfy their transportation needs At a community level the transportation system can safely and efficiently accommodate unusual conditions At a design level it means that facilities can withstand extreme and unexpected conditions At a strategic planning level it means that a transportation system can meet long-term sustainability goals Ways to increase Resilience Increase transportation diversity. Insure that there are opportunities for people to walk, cycle, rideshare, carshare and travel by transit Increase network redundancy and connectivity Increase facility design and construction standards to withstand extreme conditions Improve the ability to communicate with transportation system users under extreme conditions 2

3 CO 2 CONCENTRATIONS September 2017: ppm CO 2 Over 480 ppm CO 2 e 3

4 PREVENTING DANGEROUS ANTHROPOGENIC INTERFERENCE WITH THE CLIMATE SYSTEM No more than 2 C Global Warming No more than 450 PPM CO 2 4

5 CATASTROPHIC LOSSES IN CANADA ($BILLIONS, ) National Roundtable on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE) has estimated that under a 2 C global warming scenario the annual costs of climate change to Canada could grow from about $5 billion in 2020 to between $21 billion and $43 billion by the 2050s (with a 5 percent chance that costs could exceed $90 billion) 5

6 WHERE THE GLOBE SEEMS TO BE HEADED MORE MITIGATION IS NEEDED ADAPTATION IS NECESSARY COP 21 PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT WILL NOT STOP CLIMATE CHANGE 6

7 SCIENTIFIC FOUNDATION: THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE Sixth Report?????? Heat waves will occur more often and last longer (very likely); Fewer cold temperature extremes and more frequent hot temperature extremes will occur (virtually certain); Extreme precipitation events will become more intense and frequent in many regions (very likely) 7

8 FEDERAL AND PROVINCIAL RESPONSE: MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION Bill 6: Infrastructure planning and investment should minimize the impact of infrastructure on the environment and infrastructure should be designed to be resilient to the effects of climate change. 8

9 ONTARIO S GHG EMISSION S TARGET CHALLENGE ONTARIO S TARGETS: 6% BELOW 1990 BY 2015; 15% BELOW 1990 BY 2020; 37% BELOW 1990 BY 2030; 80% BELOW 1990 BY

10 OVER $30B IN INVESTMENT IN THE GTHA S RAPID TRANSIT NETWORK EXPANDING GO TRAIN SERVICE 74 KM OF NEW LIGHT RAIL TRANSIT 68 KM OF NEW BUS RAPID TRANSIT CONNECTING IT ALL TOGETHER More service on all lines Electric trains, every 15 minutes or better in both directions, for most GO customers 23 more stations and line extensions to serve new markets Under construction: Eglinton Crosstown In procurement: Finch West Hurontario Hamilton B-Line In design / planning: Sheppard East Partially in-service, with remainder under construction: Viva in York Region Mississauga Transitway In design / planning: Hamilton A-Line Expanding and revitalizing Union Station, the heart of the regional network Completed PRESTO deployment on TTC 10

11 REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN Since 2008, Metrolinx has been guided by its Regional Transportation Plan which is a multimodal, long range plan for the GTHA Developed in consultation with municipalities, residents and many stakeholders across the region Provides strategic direction for planning, designing and building a regional transportation network that enhances our quality of life, our environment, and our prosperity 11

12 CLIMATE RESILIENCY WITHIN THE REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN A region that is well serviced by alternative modes of transportation will be more resilient to potential travel disruptions caused by such extreme weather events. The Draft 2041 RTP addresses how resiliency to climate change can be built into the regional transportation system by designing for the weather of the future, updating infrastructure to withstand the impacts of climate change and developing policies and protocols to respond to extreme weather events. 12

13 METROLINX IS EXPERIENCING CLIMATE CHANGE 126 mm of rain in 2 hours 1,400 passengers stranded on flooded Richmond Hill GO train Washouts on Lakeshore W and Richmond Hill Ice storm Blackouts across GTHA Widespread disruption in service 22 cm of snowfall overnight Widespread disruption in service days >32ºC in 2016, the 5 th highest year since 1967 Risk of track warping, sun kinks and grass fires First September when slow order issued 13

14 Number of days >32 C Number of days <23 C Snowfall in cm CLIMATE HISTORY AND TRENDS: PAST 50 YEARS EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES* Year EXTREME HOT TEMPERATURES* WINTER SNOWFALL* Year December February RECORDED FLOOD EVENTS SINCE 1979 ALONG THE LOWER DON RIVER** Linear (December) Linear (February) Year 1981, 2000, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015 *RSI Climate Change Hazards Information Portal (CCHIP); ** Metrolinx 14

15 WHAT TO EXPECT FROM CLIMATE CHANGE* Number of Hot Days (>32 C)** 51 Sept Cooling/Heating Degree Days** 90 mm 80 mm 2-hour Rainfall Intensity*** 1 in 10-Year Storm 7 Hist Aug Jul Jun May Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Historical CDD RCP s CDD RCP s CDD RCP s CDD Historical HDD RCP s HDD RCP s HDD RCP s HDD 70 mm 60 mm 50 mm 40 mm 30 mm 20 mm 10 mm 0 mm Hist Hist *Based on climate data and projections from Environment Canada, Western University and Risk Sciences International (RSI). **Toronto Pearson International Airport *** Toronto Island Airport 15

16 OUR COMMITMENT TO BECOMING CLIMATE RESILIENT 16

17 GOAL 1: BECOME CLIMATE RESILIENT 2 Key Actions to achieve Goal 1 in the Sustainability Strategy: 1.1 Finalize our corporate Climate Adaptation Plan. This includes strategies to ensure that capital assets that are designed, built, and delivered by Metrolinx are resilient to the impacts of climate change. 1.2 Develop climate resilience requirements for inclusion within technical standards, manuals, guidelines, Alternative Finance Procurement (AFP) project agreements, and project specific output specifications. 17

18 CLIMATE RESILIENCY AND SERVICE Service disruption protocols Flood monitoring protocol reroutes trains away from the Lower Don Transportation Corridor Bus bridges can be established GO Transit Service Disruption Protocol allowing GO customers to use TTC services for no additional charge Corporate Snow Plan schedule implemented that provides safe and reliable transportation for customers 18

19 CLIMATE RESILIENCY AND MOBILITY MANAGEMENT Seemingly small but important step towards resiliency Incorporate extreme weather disruptions into Triplinx across the GTHA in real time Ensure that accessibility issues are considered (e.g. station access during power outages) Impact of extreme weather conditions on mode choice (e.g. heat stress) Extended seasons for active commuting Resiliency and interdependencies with other transit agencies 19

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