ECN Scenario Approach Presentation ECN: Golfe du Morbihan

Transcription

1 IMCORE SCENARIOS TRAINING WORKSHOP Budapest Room, Hilton Conference Centre Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Tuesday 2 February 2010 ECN Scenario Approach Presentation ECN: Golfe du Morbihan

2 OUR AIMS :? Stakeholders include the climate change issues in their practices? Policy maker consider the climate change in all the fields of coastal zone management in short, middle and long term.

3 2. Context, key issues and challenges Climate change effects? Impacts of climate change? Local issues?? Possible actions? Wishes: - policy decision - inhabitants wishes? what exists? what is possible to adapt? what has to be imagined + ressources = SCENARIOS = ADAPTIVE STRATEGY

4 2. Context, key issues and challenges 3 approaches to define the local issues: 2 workshops with elected representatives and administrations interviews with scientists and experts a survey on an inhabitant s sample of Gulf of Morbihan

5 How did we identify local issues? 2. Context, key issues and challenges 2 workshops with elected representatives and administrations 1 for elected representative and 1 for administrations, separately Around 15 elected representative Around 10 administrations The perception of elected representative is not really the same as the administrations The elected representative who attend at the workshop were already concerned by climate change

6 How did we identify local issues? 2. Context, key issues and challenges interviews with scientists and experts Around 10 scientists and experts Experts on geology, marine biology, planning, ICZM, toxicolog

7 How did we identify local issues? 2. Context, key issues and challenges a survey on an inhabitant s sample of Gulf of Morbihan 1062 inhabitants of Gulf of Morbihan 98,2 % of inhabitants think that the CC is a reality 86 % of inhabitants think that CC have an anthropic origin 77 % of inhabitants feel CC s effects And many others results

8 2. Context, key issues and challenges Climate Change s effects and impacts Physic and biological effects and impacts sea level rise temperature variation rain fall variation sunshine varaiation erosion flooding lost of biodiversity Socio-economic impacts effects Impacts on? issues urban area and urban planning marine professionnal activities (fisheries, shelfish farming, agriculture) tourism and recreation human health nature heritage Impacts on? issues

9 3. Scale of scenarios (geographic)

10 3. Scale of scenarios (thematic) The issues definition has permitted to identify 3 themes for the scenario building : 1. urban area, urban planning and infrastructure 2. marine professionnal activities 3. social and cultural uses of the area (tourism, sailing )

11 3. Scale of scenarios (thematic) 1. Urban area, urban planning and infrastructure Threats due to the sea level rise and adaptation to the new climate conditions (temperature, rain, sunshine) Urban planning : long time projects, building for long time

12 3. Scale of scenarios (thematic) 2. Marine professionnal activities Strongly linked with the natural and physical conditions Climate Change : changes on species distribution (sea level, temperature, rain)

13 3. Scale of scenarios (thematic) 3. Social and cultural uses of the area marine recreation activities coastal pathway access to natural areas access to cultural heritage access to beaches natural heritage

14 4. Type of scenarios approach and methods : predictive / exploratory Predictive datas for scenarios building temperature (ONERC)? DONE rain falls (ONERC)? DONE sea level rise (SHOM)? DONE

15 1990_OB 2030_B2 2030_A2 18 c 14 c 10 c 6 c Températures moyennes 2050_B2 2050_A2 2090_B2 2090_A2

16 4. Type of scenarios approach and methods : predictive / exploratory Predictive datas for scenarios building temperature (ONERC)? DONE rain falls (ONERC)? DONE sea level rise (SHOM)? DONE

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18 4. Type of scenarios approach and methods : predictive / exploratory Predictive datas for scenarios building temperature (ONERC)? DONE rain falls (ONERC)? DONE sea level rise (SHOM)? DONE

19 Partnership with SHOM SHOM has built 4 sea level rise simulations for the Gulf of Morbihan, based on the IPCC scenarios Tide coefficient : 115 (september 2010) + 0,18 meter + 0,59 meter + 1 meter + 2 meters 4. Type of scenarios approach and methods : predictive / exploratory

20 xploratory scenarios 5. Who will be involved in developing the scenario? 1. Urban area, urban planning and infrastructure Stakeholders : Elus des communes (councillors) DDE (Ministery of infrastructure) Conseil Général (County concil) DDE maritime (Ministery of sea) Syndicat d eau (water companies) SAGEMOR (anchorage) Facilitators : Manuelle (UBO) Monique and Ronan (SIAGM) Gethin (Glamorgan)?

21 xploratory scenarios 5. Who will be involved in developing the scenario? 2. Marine professionnal activities Stakeholders : Agriculture Pêche & Conchyliculture (fishing and shellfish farming) Affaires maritimes (Ministery of sea) DDE (Ministery of infrastructure) Armateurs de vedettes à passagers (shipowners of passenger speedboats) Facilitators : Manuelle (UBO) Monique and Ronan (SIAGM) Gethin (Glamorgan)?

22 xploratory scenarios 5. Who will be involved in developing the scenario? 3. Social and cultural uses of the area Stakeholders : plaisanciers amateur (yachtsmen) Clubs de voile (sailing clubs) Clubs de Kayak (kayak clubs) La Fédération Francaise de la Randonnée Pédestre (The Ramblers) Elus (elected representative) DDE (Ministery of infrastruture) County concil Amis des chemins de ronde (NGO s) SAGEMOR (megaliths management) Facilitators : Manuelle (UBO) Monique and Ronan (SIAGM) Gethin (Glamorgan)?

23 6. Timetable for workshops and scenarios development Feb- CORE Scenario Activity10 Mar- 10 Apr- 10 May- 10 June 10- Jul- 10 Aug- 10 Sep- 10 Oct- 10 Nov- 10 Dec- 10 Jan- 11 Feb- 11 Mar 11 nduct scenario workshops X X X velop scenarios t scenario al publication & reporting