Mid-level Evaluation of Climate Services: Seasonal Forecasts in Kazakhstan
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1 Mid-level Evaluation of Climate Services: Seasonal Forecasts in Kazakhstan Glen Anderson, Chief of Party Climate Change Resilient Development Project Montevideo, Uruguay December 11, 2014
2 What I will cover Context for Mid-level Assessments Problem statement Assessment methodology Findings Options for strengthening climate services
3 Context for mid-level assessments Goal of assessments: Promote widespread adoption of effective climate services Improve existing climate services Assessment components: Science: Quality and reliability of climate services Institutional: Effectiveness in disseminating climate services including timeliness Uptake: Use of services Test alternative methods to the comprehensive MaliMet assessment
4 Mid-level assessments Climate Systems Analysis Group (UCT) Winter School Drought early warning systems to support food crop systems in Indonesia Caribbean Agrometeorological Initiative Climate forecasting in Kazakhstan Component of USAID s Climate Resilient Wheat (CRW) Integration Pilot Implemented by UNDP with support provided by the Climate Change Resilient Development Project (CCRD) Reports available at
5 Kazakhstan s Development Goals in the Wheat Sector Increase wheat production in Kazakhstan Strengthen food security in Central Asia Modernize the wheat sector Adapt to climate variability and change
6 Wheat production in Kazakhstan (million metric tons) / / / /13
7 Seasonal variability in rainfall (mm) Maximum and Minimum Precipitation (mm) for Kostanay Oblast between 2000 and Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
8 Annual variability in rainfall Percent change in annual average precipitation and observed annual precipitation for Kostanay Oblast between 2000 and % 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40%
9 Projected changes in precipitation Between 2020 and 2039: Annual rainfall will increase during the winter (November to March) Rain in the summer months will decrease compared to historical rainfall patterns Between 2080 and 2099: Even larger increases in winter rainfall are projected Even larger decreases in summer rainfall are projected
10 Assessment methodology Stakeholder workshops and surveys: National and local stakeholders including wheat producers Informal survey of farmers by UNDP/CRW staff Climate Services Roundtable: Self-assessment by Kazhydromet and the National Space Institute Review of forecast methodology and results by Tony Barnston, IRI/Columbia Independent review of climate services for agricultural users funded by UNDP/CRW
11 Value chain for climate services: Findings Processing & Data Management Weather/ Climate/ Water Observations Modelling Forecasting Service Delivery Research & Development q Issues in Kazakhstan: Gaps in observational network Data recovery needed; more rapid preparation of drought index and climate forecasts needed Forecast reliability
12 Forecast reliability Seasonal forecasts: Announced as below normal, normal, or above normal Temperature: 60-62% accurate; precipitation: 57-60% accurate Exhibit 8. Dynamics of agroforecast reliability Forecast of moisture content in soil Forecast of growing period Forecast of grain crop productivity
13 Value chain linked to user community INFORMATION PROCESSES Weather Climate Water SERVICE PRODUCTION Basic & Specialized Services NMHS & Commercial providers User Decisions & Actions Outcomes VALUE Benefits & Costs VALUE-ADDING PROCESSES q Issues in Kazakhstan: Kazagroinnovation (agricultural extension) only provides recommendations on planting dates Growers have limited capacity to alter seasonal planting decisions in response to climate information
14 Value chain linking climate services to crop production Data Collection and Management Service/ Product Development Climate Services Value Chain Service/ Product Delivery Farm-Level Decision-making (Crop timing, selection, cultivation methods) Production Information Market Information Crop Production Value Chain Production Inputs Production Crop Yield Forecast Storage/Processing Market Information Crop Yield Forecast Distribution, Trade and Consumption Market Information
15 Options for strengthening climate services Options: Expansion of the observational network More effective collection and processing of data Improved monthly and seasonal forecasts for temperature and precipitation Improved visualization and dissemination of CS products to growers Challenges: Earning growers trust Helping growers act on forecasts Expanding options to act on forecasts
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