Accelerating CCS in the UK

Transcription

1 Accelerating CCS in the UK Dr David Clarke Chief Executive February 27 th Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP. This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Energy Technologies Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 1

2 System level strategic planning Technology development and demonstration Informs effective decision making Underpins national energy systems policy Develops capacity, technology and engineering i Increases investor confidence 2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP. This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Energy Technologies Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 2

3 Making energy policy work for the UK Capacity Skills, training, infrastructure, science, R+D Energy power, heat, transport, infrastructure Wealth creation gross value added, direct employment, secondary jobs and impacts, exports, inward investment 2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 3

4 What might the UK energy system look like in Decided by global developments not just UK events, decisions and policy UK and global economy Industry and technology developments UK demand changes scale and segmentation Global socio-political events International market confidence... The future is uncertain and we need an energy system design that allows for this 2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 4

5 A national energy system design tool Integrating power, heat, transport and infrastructure searching for the lowest cost solution 2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 5

6 Getting to UK primary energy diversifies Nuclear and gas are pillars - 50% of energy imported Increasing role for nuclear and renewables Primary Energy Mix (Mean) Fossil fuel persists with CCS in power and as gas in heavy vehicles Biomass, onshore wind, hydro and imported biofuels become fully exploited Wet wastes must be used effectively includes conversion to biogas Increased range and number of key assets Electricity 2010 = 365TWh, 2050 = 440TWh 2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 6

7 UK 2050 power generating capacity 2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 7

8 2050 abatement cost is <1% GDP Biomass and CCS are key levers, nuclear is part of the base platform 2010(Mean)/year Total system cost 294bn Abatement cost 26bn (0.7% GDP) Average cost 51/tCO2 Marginal cost 360/tCO2 No biomass No CCS No nuclear + 44bn + 42bn + 4bn No tech devt* + 106bn *Assumes current technology cost/performance 2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 8

9 Effective national policy needs to focus on things which h will move the dial Focus on the big levers is crucial to maximise impact of scare resources - money, skills, supplybase and time Investment in innovation is critical to reduce costs Engagement of industry and consumers is essential ETI view immediate development priorities for 2050 as... Efficiency (technology, consumer demand, storage) Nuclear CCS Bioenergy Offshore wind Gas for transport 2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 9

10 CCS A key lever - particularly combined with bioenergy Long development time requires early start Potentially very wide use Power Hydrogen and Synthetic Natural Gas (SNG) production Heavy industry ETI investing over 60m in enabling CCS for coal, gas and biomass Improved separation technologies Storage appraisal Transport system design tools 2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 10

11 Early demonstration start is essential Longest lead time item is the most uncertain - storage Power and Capture system (IGCC) ~ 1,100m Gas plant can be built capture ready Transport system ~ 130m Approvals FEED Construct Route and planning Order Lay Storage system ~ 140m+ Years Selection Appraise Drill Test License Construct ~ 90m (saline aquifer) ~ 50m Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 11

12 UK CO 2 Storage Appraisal Project Realistic, defensible & fully auditable assessment of potential ti CO2 storage capacity in the UK Unique & comprehensive GIS storage database Capacity Security of storage Economics Underlying data Overall estimate of capacity informing CCS investment decisions 2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 12

13 UKSAP Web-enabled Database and GIS 2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 13

14 Overall UK CO 2 Storage Capacity - dominated by saline aquifer stores - P50 capacity 78GT - UK requires about 15GT for 100years 60 Gt 8 Gt 5 Gt 2 Gt Non Chalk Aquifers Chalk Aquifers Gas Gas Condensate Oil Units < 20 Mt Total technical capacity does not take economics and security of 3 Gt storage into account Large number of stores whose final assessed capacity is less than 20 Mt 2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 14

15 Where is the storage? Northern North Sea Central North Sea Southern North Sea Viable storage found in all areas studied areas studied Storage is stacked and clustered both oil & gas and aquifer Opportunities for basin scale approaches Key: Black = coal-fired station Royal blue = gas-fired station Green = hydrocarbon unit Light Blue = closed aquifer Red = open aquifer 2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 15

16 Security of Storage Low Formation mineralogy Seal chemical reactivity Well vintage Formation mechanical integrity Formation salinity Well density Sev verity of im mpact Medium Migration dip direction Seal fracture pressure column Migration national boundary Fault compartment. Diagenesis compartment. Seal lateral degradation Fault vertical extent Migration depositional trend Migration structural trend Migration rugosity Migration hydrodynamics Strat compartment. horizontal Strat compartment. vertical Fault density Fault throw Migration dip mag Migration pressure sinks High Low Medium High Likelihood of occurrence Security of Storage assessments carried out for all saline aquifer units Consistent methodology 23 risk factors considered 2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 16

17 How much storage do we have? Gas condensate Goldeneye 2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 17

18 How much storage do we have? 2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 18

19 How much storage do we have? Defined Structures Open Closed 2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 19

20 Economics - Aquifers Notes: Cost model takes into account key capital and operating costs Costs are undiscounted: higher (initial) risk sites will require larger returns on capital Transport costs are offshore only, and are based on (shoreline) point to point for each unit 2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 20

21 Storage capacity - must be committed in advance of need Assumptions: ESME decadal pathway analysis to 2050 Storage Requirement = actual to date + 25/40 years for new assets Total UK Storage Requirement (100 years) ~ 15,000 Mt (P90) 2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 21

22 2050 pathway requires saline aquifers - viable oil and gas unlikely to meet availability needs for capacity or timing Based on UKSAP capacity for viable depleted oil & gas reservoirs with 5 year delay Availability based on DECC data for Close of Production (smoothed) Additional 1,500 Mt appraised aquifer storage available by 2020 rising to 2,700 Mt by Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 22

23 CCS A key lever - particularly combined with bioenergy Long development time requires early start on storage Potentially very wide use Power Hydrogen and Synthetic Natural Gas (SNG) production Heavy industry Statfjord Brent Demonstration projects need to de-risk full value-chain operation and prepare strategic aquifer storage ETI investing over 60m in enabling CCS Forties Bunter Domes ETI UKSAP commercial licensing access currently being finalised Morecambe Indefatigable Leman Strategic management of UK storage required to allow cost effective development and maximisation of resource potential 2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 23

24 Delivering low carbon energy technologies Supporting economic growth by... Informing policy Building partnerships Delivering innovation Sharing risk Creating affordability Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP. This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Energy Technologies Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 24

25 Energy Technologies Institute Holywell Building Holywell Park Loughborough UK LE11 3UZ For all general enquiries For the latest ETI news and telephone the ETI on announcements +44 (0) For more information about the ETI visit The ETI can also be followed on Twitter at twitter.com/the_eti 2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 25