Developing future energy systems under uncertainty?

Transcription

1 Developing future energy systems under uncertainty? Andrew Haslett FREng, Chief Engineer 2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP. This 2016 information Energy is given Technologies in good faith based Institute upon the latest LLP information - Subject available to to notes Energy on Technologies page 1Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.

2 Energy Technologies Institute The Energy Technologies Institute is a partnership between global energy and engineering companies and the UK Government. ETI members Our role is to act as a conduit between academia, industry and government to accelerate the development of low carbon technologies. We bring together engineering projects that develop affordable, secure and sustainable technologies to help the UK address its longterm emissions reduction targets as well as delivering nearer term benefits. We make targeted investments in a portfolio of technology programmes across heat, power, transport and the infrastructure that links them. ETI programme associate

3 Knowledge building to: Strategic analysis and planning to:» Inform industry decision making through robust, shared evidence and commercially available projects» Build a better understanding of decarbonisation potential in developing industries» Inform policy debate Demonstrating technology to:» Develop an internationally peer-reviewed national energy system design and planning capability» Identify the lowest-cost decarbonisation pathways for the UK energy system» Produce technology and industry sector insights and develop whole system modelling capability Developing technology to:» De-risk new systems» Focus and accelerate low carbon innovation» Build investor confidence» Build supply chain capability» Create economic opportunities» Exploit UK technology knowledge and skills

4 When do we need to be ready?

5 Emergent systems with normative constraints Can you forecast what energy systems will develop and how I should participate? This will depend on millions of decisions by consumers, businesses and governments, especially governments, so No We can say how technology, economics and consumer choices are likely to constrain systems that are achievable in time, so you can consider the implications Can you predict the cost and performance trajectory of technologies and therefore the optimum pathway? Only within wide uncertainty bounds Why should we do anything until it s easy, obvious and everyone agrees? There isn t time, people have different priorities and optimism bias is very risky How should we plan to deliver our objectives by using the following sets of solutions? You want a portfolio of options with specific evidenced based plans that have a low chance of significant failure in aggregate You want to test the reality and deliverability of the options reasonably quickly

6 Annual energy use per person in UK (2010) Other Refrigeration IT, etc Ventilation / AC Compressed air Motors Appliances Lighting 4,250 Goods Te km (Th) 14,000 passenger km (Th) Cooking - commercial (Th) Cooking - domestic (Th) Process heating (Th) Water heating - commercial (Th) Water heating - domestic (Th) Space heating - commercial (Th) Space heating - domestic (Th) Energy kwh p.a.

7 Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2013

8 Variability (Duty Cycle) is very important Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec By kind permission of UKERC: 2011

9 Two thousand 2050 energy systems Clustering algorithm based on metric of primary resource consumption by technology Cluster centroid Cluster size Remaining Systems (%)

10 Exploring uncertainties

11 Whole system analysis based on sector specific detail

12 Detailed pathway analysis

13 A range of social, demographic, industrial, economic, policy and consumer possibilities 13

14 Institutional Mandate Clear leadership and a national planning capability provide a framework for energy system decision-making with strong regional participation. Large Scale Infrastructure A focus is placed on national co-ordination of supply-side generation and shared national, regional and local infrastructures. Carbon Offsetting Realising the system-wide value of CCS and biomass in generating negative emissions. Phased Decarbonisation Emissions reduction is led by action in the power sector, followed by buildings and finally transport. All vehicles have dramatic efficiency improvements, driven by regulations. Cars and vans are mostly hybrids.

15 Clockwork

16 Societal Engagement Alongside decarbonisation, popular perceptions over other social and environmental factors (eg land use) influence decisions strongly. Energy prices are used to reinforce progress. Multi-Scale Infrastructure A mixture of national, regional and local initiatives deliver a patchwork of lowcarbon energy infrastructures. Renewables Optimism A focus on renewables drives offshore wind at large scale, supported by significant capacity of smaller-scale technologies. Parallel Decarbonisation Transformation of the power sector is followed by deep, parallel abatement action across buildings and transportation.

17 Patchwork

18 Carbon pricing across the economy? Clockwork Patchwork Other Emissions Other Transport Road Transport Heat Power Industry Negative Emissions Budget bn Clockwork Patchwork Clockwork Patchwork Clockwork Patchwork Clockwork Patchwork Infrastructure Transport Buildings & Heat Power & conversion 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s

19 Or

20 Why does this matter? There isn t much time Infrastructures of pipes, wires, refuelling stations very different in different outcomes District heating, the role of the gas grid, electricity reinforcement, location of power and industrial plant, types of storage. The chosen portfolio needs to be developed and tested aggressively SMRs, Offshore Wind, Hybrid vehicle charging management and/or hydrogen distribution and filling stations, building retrofits Industrial strategy depends on the type, cost and location of energy vectors Refineries, advanced materials, food & drink Human capital requirements very different Skills, market and regulatory structures, business planning and delivery

21 Registered Office Energy Technologies Institute Holywell Building Holywell Park Loughborough LE11 3UZ For all general enquiries telephone the ETI on For more information about the ETI visit For the latest ETI news and announcements The ETI can also be followed on

22 System 1189 Solar Hydro Tidal Stream Wave Wind Recoverable Heat Network Hot Water Electricity Nuclear Geothermal Heat Hydrogen Biomass Biomass Imports Biofuel Imports Liquid Fuel Dry Waste Wet Waste Gas Coal

23 System 584 Solar Hydro Tidal Stream Wave Wind Recoverable Heat Network Hot Water Electricity Nuclear Geothermal Heat Hydrogen Biomass Biomass Imports Biofuel Imports Liquid Fuel Dry Waste Wet Waste Gas Coal

24 System 352 Solar Hydro Tidal Stream Wave Wind Recoverable Heat Network Hot Water Electricity Nuclear Geothermal Heat Hydrogen Biomass Biomass Imports Biofuel Imports Liquid Fuel Dry Waste Wet Waste Gas Coal

25 System 942 Solar Hydro Tidal Stream Wave Wind Recoverable Heat Network Hot Water Electricity Nuclear Geothermal Heat Hydrogen Biomass Biomass Imports Biofuel Imports Liquid Fuel Dry Waste Wet Waste Gas Coal

26 System 1568 Solar Hydro Tidal Stream Wave Wind Recoverable Heat Network Hot Water Electricity Nuclear Geothermal Heat Hydrogen Biomass Biomass Imports Biofuel Imports Liquid Fuel Dry Waste Wet Waste Gas Coal

27 System 862 Solar Hydro Tidal Stream Wave Wind Recoverable Heat Network Hot Water Electricity Nuclear Geothermal Heat Hydrogen Biomass Biomass Imports Biofuel Imports Liquid Fuel Dry Waste Wet Waste Gas Coal

28 System 1146 Solar Hydro Tidal Stream Wave Wind Recoverable Heat Network Hot Water Electricity Nuclear Geothermal Heat Hydrogen Biomass Biomass Imports Biofuel Imports Liquid Fuel Dry Waste Wet Waste Gas Coal

29 System 721 Solar Hydro Tidal Stream Wave Wind Recoverable Heat Network Hot Water Electricity Nuclear Geothermal Heat Hydrogen Biomass Biomass Imports Biofuel Imports Liquid Fuel Dry Waste Wet Waste Gas Coal