Developments in the ecological box modelling of the Curonian Lagoon

Transcription

1 Developments in the ecological box modelling of the Curonian Lagoon /9/9, Klaipeda Dr. Ali Ertürk Istanbul Technical University Department of Environmental Engineering INTRODUCTION 1

2 What is ESTAS? EcoSystem and TRansport Simulator A box model for aquatic ecological simulations Can handle spatial (vertically and horizontally) and temporal variations Horizontal Boxes (Cells) Cell 7 Cell 8 Cell 1 Cell Cell 3 Cell 5 Cell 6 Cell

3 1 Horizontal Boxes for the Curonian Lagoon Ecological Model km Vertical Boxes (Layers) Cell 1 Cell Cell 3 Cell 5 Cell 6 A Cross Section A Through A-A Layer 1 Layer Layer 1 Layer Layer 3 Layer Layer 1 Layer Layer 3 Layer Layer 1 Layer 1 Layer Layer Layer 3 Layer 3 Layer Layer Layer 5 Layer 5 3

4 What is ESTAS? ESTAS is a computer program implemented in FORTRAN. It is an open source program. It is free for everybody. Works in sub-daily temporal resolution for years or even decades. How does ESTAS simulate water quality and Aquatic Ecology? ESTAS Model Inputs Geometry Flow field Settling field Meteorology User defined time series Ecology and Water Quality Kinetics Specific Inputs ESTAS SIMULATION ENGINE TRANSOPORT Advection Diffusion Settling of solids ECOLOGY and WATER QUALITY KINETICS SOLVER ESTAS Model Results

5 ESTAS ESTAS Model Inputs Geometry Flow field Settling field Meteorology User defined time series Ecology and Water Quality Kinetics Specific Inputs ALUKAS ESTAS SIMULATION ENGINE TRANSOPORT Advection Diffusion Settling of solids SOLVER ECOLOGY and WATER QUALITY KINETICS ESTAS Model Results What is ALUKAS? Advanced Level nutrient Kinetics for Aquatic ecosystems A pelagic NPZD (Nutrient, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton, Detritus) model for water quality kinetics and ecological modelling. Is a module that can be integrated to ESTAS and other transport models. 5

6 ALUKAS State Variables Summary Nutrients: N, P and Si compounds Dissolved oxygen Organic / detritus Three groups of phytoplankton: Diatoms, and others) One group of zooplankton Water quality variables Ecological variables Processes Related to Nutrient Cycles Other planktonic algae based dissolved organic External labile dissolved organic Zooplankton Diatoms based dissolved organic Ammonia nitrogen based dissolved organic Nitrification Zooplankton based dissolved organic Nitrate nitrogen Denitrification Ammonia preference factors External refractory dissolved organic Other planktonic algae Phosphate phosphorus Diatoms Inorganic Available silicon Reaeration 6

7 Processes Related to Plankton Dynamics Phosphate phosphorus Available silicon Ammonia nitrogen Ammonia preference factors Nitrate nitrogen Diatoms Excretion Diatoms based dissolved organic Photosynthesis Death Dissolved oxygen Inorganic Diatoms based particulate detritus Photosynthesis Excretion based dissolved organic Other planktonic algae Death Other planktonic algae based particulate detritus Death based particulate detritus Photosynthesis Excretion Other planktonic algae based dissolved organic Zooplankton based dissolved organic Excretion Food preference factor Grazing Zooplankton Zooplankton based particulate detritus Death Processes Related to Non-Living Organic Matter Cycle Reaeration Photosynthesis Photosynthesis Photosynthesis Phosphate phosphorus Available silicon Ammonia nitrogen Zooplankton Nitrification Zooplankton based dissolved organic Excretion Dissolution Dissolved oxygen Inorganic Zooplankton based particulate detritus based dissolved Excretion organic Death Dissolution Other Other planktonic planktonic algae based Dissolution algae Excretion dissolved organic Death based particulate detritus Other planktonic algae based particulate detritus Grazing Grazing Diatoms Excretion Death Diatoms based dissolved organic Death Dissolution Diatoms based particulate detritus External labile dissolved Dissolution organic External refractory dissolved Dissolution organic External labile particulate detritus External refractory particulate detritus Grazing Grazing 7

8 Results that can be obtained with ESTAS/ALUKAS Temporal variation of water quality and ecological variable for each box Temporal variation of each process simulated by ALUKAS for each box Additional information (such as driving variables) for higher level food web calculations/models Which Questions Could Be Answered with ESTAS/ALUKAS? Response of Water Quality (Nutrients, Organic Matter and Dissolved Oxygen) to external forcing Trophic status of aquatic ecosystems and nutrient criteria development Internal response of aquatic ecosystems (such as change in the primary production, accumulation of autochthonous organic matter, etc.) to external forcing Changes in plankton group composition The limiting factor for eutrophication (nutrients, etc.) 8

9 Nutrient Criteria Development Historical Information Describing Trends Reference Condition - TP - TN - Algal biomass - Water clarity - Other variables Models Describing System Dynamics Assessment by Regional Technical Assistance Group (RTAG) - Evaluation for downstream effects NUTRIENT CRITERIA Ecoregion/Coastal Province Evaluation Regional Technical Assistance Group Variables & Method Selection Existing Databases Sampling Design & New Data Collection Physical Classification Develop Reference Conditions Consider Additional Elements Criteria Development Data Analysis Nutrient criteria development procedure recommended by USEPA (adapted form USEPA, 1) APPLICATION TO THE CURONIAN LAGOON 9

10 Data Sources Lithuanian Marine Research Centre Lithuanian Meteorology Centre Institute of Botany, Vilnius Coastal Research and Planning Institute Data Sources 1

11 Model Setup and Validation Hydrodynamic linkage of ESTAS with SHYFEM 1 3 ESTAS Boundary 1 ESTAS Boundary ESTAS Boundary 3 km ESTAS Boundary

12 Calibration and Validation of ESTAS/ALUKAS, Simulated Observed NH (gn.m -3 ) Model Results Data,3,5,,15,1,5, NH (gn.m -3 ),15,1,5, 1999,6 Simulated Observed NO3 (gn.m -3 ) 1,,8,6,, Model Results Data NO3 (gn.m -3 ),,, , 1999 Calibration and Validation of ESTAS/ALUKAS,8 Simulated Observed PO (gp.m -3 ) Model Results Data,1,1,1,8,6,,, PO (gp.m -3 ),6,,, 1999 Dissolved Oxygen (g.m -3 ) Model Results Data Dissolved Oxygen (g.m -3 ) Simulated Observed

13 Total Phytoplankton (gc.m -3 ) 3,5 3,,5, 1,5 1,,5, Calibration and Validation of ESTAS/ALUKAS Model Results Data Total Phytoplankton (gc.m -3 ) 3,,5, 1,5 1,,5,, Simulated Observed 1999 Simulated Observed Greens (gc.m -3 ) Model Results Data, 1,5 1,,5, Greens (gc.m -3 ),3,,1, 1999 Goodness of Fit after Calibration and Validation (Zemlys et al., 8) ALUKAS Image adapted from Arhonditis et al. (). 13

14 Example Results: PO-P POP (gp.m -3 ) POP (gp.m -3 ) POP (gp.m -3 ) POP (gp.m -3 )..1 Cell Cell Cell Cell POP (gp.m -3 ) POP (gp.m -3 ) POP (gp.m -3 ) POP (gp.m -3 )..1 Cell 6 8 Cell Cell Cell POP (gp.m -3 ) POP (gp.m -3 ) POP (gp.m -3 ) POP (gp.m -3 )..1 Cell Cell Cell Cell POP (gp.m -3 ) POP (gp.m -3 ) POP (gp.m -3 ) POP (gp.m -3 )..1 Cell 6 8 Cell Cell Cell Example Results: Total Phytoplankton-C Cell Cell Cell Cell Cell 6 8 Cell Cell Cell Cell Cell Cell Cell Cell 6 8 Cell Cell Cell

15 Scenarios Related to Nutrient Input Variation Nitrogen and Phosphorus Inputs Considered 15

16 What happens to the Nutrients?.16.1 N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased Basic simulation, N and P not changed N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased Basic simulation, N and P not changed.16.1 N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased Basic simulation, N and P not changed N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased Basic simulation, N and P not changed Ammonia nitrogen (gn.m -3 ) Ammonia nitrogen (gn.m -3 ) What happens to the Nutrients?.5 N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% N increased, P 5% P increased 5% increased Basic N and P not changed Basic simulation, N and P not changed.5 N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% N decreased, 5% increased, P 5% P 5% increased decreased Basic and P not changed Basic simulation, N and P not changed Phosphate phosphorus (gp.m -3 ) Phosphate phosphorus (gp.m -3 )

17 .8.7 Wet year Dry year N 5% increased, P not changed N 5% increased, P not changed N not changed, P 5% increased N not changed, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% decreased, P not changed N 5% decreased, P not changed N not changed, P 5% decreased Ammonia nitrogen (gn.m -3 ) N not changed, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased Basic simulation N and P not changed Wet year Dry year 15 Difference of ammonia nitrogen from basic simulation (%) N 5% increased, P not changed N 5% increased, P not changed N not changed, P 5% increased N not changed, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% decreased, P not changed N 5% decreased, P not changed N not changed, P 5% decreased N not changed, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased

18 .6.5 Wet year Dry year Nitrate nitrogen (gn.m -3 ) N 5% increased, P not changed N 5% increased, P not changed N not changed, P 5% increased N not changed, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% decreased, P not changed N 5% decreased, P not changed N not changed, P 5% decreased N not changed, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased Basic simulation N and P not changed 6 Wet year Dry year Difference of nitrate nitrogen from basic simulation (%) - - N 5% increased, P not changed N 5% increased, P not changed N not changed, P 5% increased N not changed, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% decreased, P not changed N 5% decreased, P not changed N not changed, P 5% decreased N not changed, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased

19 Wet year Dry year N 5% increased, P not changed N 5% increased, P not changed N not changed, P 5% increased N not changed, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% decreased, P not changed N 5% decreased, P not changed N not changed, P 5% decreased N not changed, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased Basic simulation N and P not changed Phosphate phosphorus (gp.m -3 ) 1 Wet year Dry year 8 Difference of phosphate phosphorus from basic simulation (%) N 5% increased, P not changed N 5% increased, P not changed N not changed, P 5% increased N not changed, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% increased, P 5% increased N 5% decreased, P not changed N 5% decreased, P not changed N not changed, P 5% decreased N not changed, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased -8 19

20 8 Average deviation for the wet year Average deviation for the dry year Average deviation for the wet year Average deviation for the dry year Wet year is based on 1999 Dry year is based on Deviation of the yearly average of results from the basic simulation (%) Ammonia nitrogen Nitrate nitrogen Phosphate phosphorus Dissolved oxygen Greens Diatoms Total phytoplankton Zooplankton Dissolved organic Particulate detritus -8 6% What happens to phytoplankton? Nitrogen changed only Greens Diatoms N 5% increased, P not changed % 35% N 5% increased, P not changed 3% % 8% Basic Simulation % N 5% increased, P not changed 3% 8% 38% Basic Simulation 37% 5% N 5% increased, P not changed 3% 3% 3% N 5% decreased, P not changed 5% % N 5% decreased, P not changed 6% 33% N 5% decreased, P not changed 5% 5% N 5% decreased, P not changed 8% 5% 1% 53% % 5% 33% % 8%

21 What happens to phytoplankton? Phosphorus changed only Greens Diatoms N not changed, P 5% increased 16% N not changed, P 5% increased 16% 8% Basic Simulation % N not changed, P 5% increased 7% 8% 38% Basic Simulation 37% 5% N not changed, P 5% increased 8% 7% 57% 7% 7% 55% 37% 66% 37% 38% N not changed, P 5% decreased 33% N not changed, P 5% decreased 7% 3% N not changed, P 5% decreased 7% 3% N not changed, P 5% decreased 17% % 39% 9% 39% 3% What happens to phytoplankton? Nitrogen and phosphorus increased Greens Diatoms N 5% increased, P 5% increased 15% N 5% increased, 5% increased 15% 8% Basic Simulation % N 5% increased, P 5% increased 7% 8% 38% Basic Simulation 37% 5% N 5% increased, P 5% increased 7% % 3% 55% 3% 1% 63% 5% 1% N 5% increased, P 5% increased 1% N 5% increased, 5% increased 1% N 5% increased, P 5% increased 6% N 5% increased, P 5% increased 6% 53% 33% 1% 61% 33% 5% % 5% 1

22 What happens to phytoplankton? Nitrogen and phosphorus decreased % Greens Diatoms N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased 3% N 5% decreased, 5% decreased 31% 3% 36% 8% Basic Simulation % N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased 8% % 38% Basic Simulation 37% 5% N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased % 6% 3% 6% N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased 3% 3% 33% N 5% decreased, 5% decreased 33% 38% 8% N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased % 3% N 5% decreased, P 5% decreased 3% 8% 3% 8% 5% 9%