Strategies for containing climate change below dangerous levels. V. Ramanathan Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD Georgia Tech, Jan 20, 2010

Transcription

1 Strategies for containing climate change below dangerous levels V. Ramanathan Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD Georgia Tech, Jan 20, 2010

2 Sources of greenhouse Gases and Aerosols in Brown Clouds. Ramanathan 2007

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4 Source: NOAA/ESRL Global Monitoring Division 2006 { The Keeling Curve}

5 Ramanathan 2007

6 PUBLISHED 1971 Oh, Mother earth, ocean-girdled and mountainbreasted, pardon me for trampling on you Sanskrit Prayer

7 1975 Abstract. The infrared bands of chlorofluorocarbons and chlorocarbons enhance the atmospheric greenhouse effect. This enhancement may lead to an appreciable increase in the global surface temperature if the atmospheric concentrations of these compounds reach values of the order of 2 parts per billion. One molecule of CFC has the same greenhouse effect as the addition of more than molecules of Carbon Dioxide to the Atmosphere

8 The Non CO2 trace gases contribute as much as CO2 to the increase in atmospheric Greenhouse effect: Ramanathan et al, JGR, 1983

9 Source: Updated: PLENARY, IPCC 2007

10 Earth Radiation Budget Experiment: { Joined Team in 1975} Ramanathan, Barkstrom and Harrison, Physics Today, 1989

11 The Water Vapor Feedback Temp dependence of Saturation vapor pressure: σt 4 e s : e -5400/T στ 4 d lne dt s 5400 = T

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13 1980

14 Unequivocal Warming of the Planet: IPCC, 2001 & 2007

15 Global Radiative Forcing due to GHGs : IPCC 2007 A F 3 3 Wm 2 RC: Ramanathan & Carmichael, 2008

16 Ramanathan and Feng, 2008 IPCC AR4 (2007) Concludes: For a CO 2 doubling, the most likely climate sensitivity is 3 C warming with a 90% confidence interval of 2 to C For doubling of CO 2, TOA forcing is : 3.7 Wm 2 So it takes about 1.25 Wm 2 (3.7/3) to warm the planet by 1 0 C The GHGs so far have added 3 Wm 2 forcing The committed (or the inevitable) warming is C

17 Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with Climate (PNAS, 2008) Committed warming derived from IPCC Forcing & IPCC climate sensitivity

18 Ramanathan-2007 Los Angeles Dec 27, 2002

19 Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX): Lead Agencies: NSF; ISRO; Max Planck Co-Chair: Ramanathan & Crutzen Ramanathan et al; J Gephys Res; 2001

20 Global Dimming: Direct Evidence Ash Black carbon 7% 11% Dust 12% MISS Organics 2% 17% a-salt & NO 3-11% K + 2% 26% 12% NH 4 + SO 4 = Meywerk and Ramanathan, 2000 Ramanathan et al, 2001

21 Aerosol Induced Dimming: 2002 {A Synthesis of ground, aircraft and satellite observations} Chung, Ramanathan, Kim, Podgorny,2005 Greenhouse Forcing = 3 W/m**2 Brown Cloud Masking= -1.5 (+-50%) W/m**2

22 Ramanathan et al, Nature, 2007.

23 ABCs surround Back Scattering (Cooling) the Himalayas NASA, CALYPSO LIDAR Ramanathan et al, 2007 ABC-Pyramid Station; Base Camp Mt Everest; Fuzzi et al 08

24 Major Rainfall Shifts during the last 50 Years Chung and Ramanathan 2006 Observed Trends in Summer Rainfall: 1950 to 2002 N-S Shift in Asian rainfall The Weakening Indian Monsoon The Sahelian Drought

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26 What is being considered in Intl Negotiations 2007 Carbon emission: 8.5 Gtons/Yr as CO 2 At fixed emission, by 2030 we will add: If we reduce emission by 50% by 2030, We will still be adding : 108 Gtons 81 Gtons Fossil Fuel Em ission (GtC/y Emissions

27 Even with 50% reductions by 2050, CO2 will Increase to 440 PPM; Commit another 1 C warming concentration(ppm) emission(gt/year) CO2 reductions have to be complemented with Reductions in short-lived non-co2 warming agents

28 Non-CO 2 climate warmers Contribution to 2005 forcing relative to CO 2 (1.66 Wm -2 ) Ref: Forster, Ramaswamy et al, WG1-AR4, IPCC, 2007 Greenhouse Gases Ozone (troposphere) : 20% Methane : 30% Halocarbons : 20% Particles (Aerosols) Black Carbon : 27% to 55% * (soot/smoke) Total Non-CO 2 : 97% to 125% All numbers except the red are IPCC values; Long lived N 2 O not included * Ramanathan & Carmichael; 2008

29 Pathway to limiting global warming to 2 0 C I. Reduce CO 2 by 50% before 2050 II. Reduce short lived warming agents: Roughly 30% in 30 Years Black Carbon (<2 weeks); Ozone (< 2 months); Methane (<15 years) HFCs & HCFCs (<15 years) Buy about 30 years time: to develop transformational technologies for a massive thinning of the GHGs blanket: Zero emission of CO 2

30 Helping communities implement practices that mitigate global warming, and gathering the data needed to improve the health of the planet.

31 The Challenge Biomass Cooking and Global Warming Economic conditions force more than 3 billion of people to burn biomass such as wood, charcoal, and dung to cook their food. These fires emit black carbon (a major component of soot), ozone- producing gases, methane and numerous other gases and particles that pollute indoor and outdoor air. Moreover, since wood is one of the primary fuels used in burning of these fires, biomass cooking also leads to deforestation. Since trees store carbon, such deforestation in turn leads to greater atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ).

32 Smoke and BC have Major Impacts on Health; Water Security and Food Security Indoor Smoke contributes as much as 2/3 of BC outdoors Indoor smoke contributes as much as 500,000 deaths annually in India Greatest advantage for Policy Actions 1. Short Lived in the air ( about a week or less) 2. Immediate response to mitigation laws 3. Response felt locally by improved air quality 4. Will reduce fatalities due to indoor and outdoor air pollution

33 Target mitigation (Surya) a) Baseline BC AOD for 2004/05 Rural Cooking Biogas plants converts organic waste into gas Ramanathan and Balakrishnan, 2007 Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2008 b) BC AOD without biofuels Parabolic solar cooker

34 Project Surya s Objectives 1. Introduce cleaner-cooking technologies. 2. Gather data on climate and health outcomes. 3. Use the data to scale up and expand the project.

35 The Data Needed to Make a Difference Project Surya is more than a cleaner-cooking program. It is a scientific intervention. What distinguishes Project Surya from numerous other cleaner-cooking projects is its scope and evaluation. The multi-disciplinary team will undertake the most comprehensive and rigorous scientific evaluation to date on the efficacy of reducing biomass-fueled cooking on climate warming. Positive results could lead to its replication in other soot-producing regions such as China and Africa, saving millions of lives.

36 Technology: Documenting the Mitigation Ramanathan and Thomas, 2009 Phase 1: 5000 to households

37 Surya: Pilot Village : Khairatpur, Indo Gangetic Plains, N India Rehman, Siva, Ramana, Kar & Ramanathan, 2010

38 0:58 1:58 2:58 3:58 4:58 5:58 6:58 7:58 8:58 9:58 10:58 11:58 12:58 13:58 14:58 15:58 16:58 17:58 18:58 19:58 20:58 21:58 22:58 23:58 Preliminary Black Carbon Data in Pilot Village: Rehman, Siva, Ramana, Kar and Ramanathan, Mean Kairatpur BC (Oct 15 - Nov 18) Mean Jagdishpur BC (Nov 19 - Nov 26) Morning Cooking BC Concentartaion μg m Evening Cooking

39 From personal observations to global patterns (Nithya Ramanathan and Deborah Estrin, CENS, UCLA) + Time spent in kitchen cooking Activities outdoors (e.g. walk, run, drive) Estimates pollution exposure Map of exposure worldwide NASA

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41 Evaluating Health Impacts Epidemiologists at Sri Ramachandra University will employ the cellphone tool. They will also undertake surveys and professional observation to evaluate Project Surya s impacts on the health of women and childrenvillagers.

42 Bottom of the Pyramid The four billion people who live on less than $2 per day constitute the bottom of the economic and energy pyramid. CAN WE STEER THEM INTO A SUSTAINABLE NON-FOSSIL FUEL PATHWAY AND ENABLE THEM TO CLIMB TO THE TOP OF THE ENERGY PYRAMID?