ASIAN WATER CYCLE SYMPOSIUM TOKYO, JAPAN, 1 2 MARCH 2016

Transcription

1 ASIAN WATER CYCLE SYMPOSIUM TOKYO, JAPAN, 1 2 MARCH 2016 EARLY FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM IN THE COUNTRY: CURRENT SITUATION Prof. Dr. Ir. Muhammad Syahril Badri Kusuma Research Division on Water Resources Engineering Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG 2016

2 Flood in Indonesia INDONESIA is an archipelagic country consisting of islands located in South East Asia. One of the major natural disasters in Indonesia. Common type: flash flood and localized/urban flood. More frequent and spread to wider areas in Indonesia during past few decades. Occurs in many municipalities in several provinces almost every year. Record of Water-related Disaster Period Type of Disaster Number of Event Victims Affected Damage (000 US$) Drought 10 9,340 4,804, ,200 Tsunami 9 168, ,520 4,506,600 Flood 178 7,398 9,904,074 6,422,047 Mass Movement Wet (Landslide) 53 2, , ,745 Storm 9 1,978 18,248 1,000 Total ,630 15,704,959 11,211,592 Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, 2016

3 Municipalities with Extremely High Risk of Flood Banda Aceh Lhokseumawe Medan Pontianak Jambi Banjarmasin Jakarta Surakarta Surabaya Tegal Malang Makassar Palopo Source: BNPB, 2010

4 Part A: Technical&Technological Aspects of the System A1: Input data available and used in the system In-situ data in near real-time with telemetric station is available but the quantities are very limited/rare. Satellite data is utilized for flood forecasts by agency for meteorology, climatology, and geophysics on near real-time basis Weather forecast data is available and utilized by BMKG. Adequate data processing archiving systems is not available. Require more affordable data acquisiton A2: Flood simulation/forecast system Hydrological/streamflow models or calculation technology use commercial software such as HEC-RAS, MIKE, SOBEK, etc, Probabilistic approach is applied by using historical data. Problem : Correlation of actual rainfall distribution and flood hydrograph

5 Part A: Technical&Technological Aspects of the System A3: Flood warning issuance criteria Flood warning is issued based on water level observation in the river and weather forecast conducted by BMKG. A4: Flood warning is issued by BMKG through weather forecast and Public Work Ministry through water level observation which communicate the warning to local government or crisis center which then will inform to the local communities and to disaster management authorities. A5: Flood awareness raising and preparedness activities (including training of using the system) is part of the system through the specific program/project.

6 Part B: Institutional and Governance Aspects B1: National institution(s) responsible for the Flood Warning System as a whole: Local Government

7 Part B: Institutional and Governance Aspects B2. International cooperation: JICA Tokyo Univ, AWCI, Delft, ADB B3: Institution(s) contributing to the technical solutions and infrastructure of the System: Ministry and Agency of Public Work BAPPENAS, BNPB B4: Institution(s) responsible for flood warning decisions and warning information sharing to the communities: Local Government inform to Village Leader to warn the communities base on warning level. B5: Stakeholders involvement and their responsibilities. BMKG: warn the extreme weather Public Work Agency: inform the water level Village Leader: warn the communities

8 Part C: Recognized deficiencies C1: What are the main deficiencies and are there any concrete plans for resolving them? Deficiencies: Existing FWS not FEWS Response Time for people to evacuate is less than 6 hours based on the common sense only Legitimate link for information dissemination from BMKG is to JPG Public Works Agency not to JPG Crisis Center. Water level threshold for existing Level of Warning should be updated due to high rate of river sedimentation process NO SCIENTIFIC BASED WARNING CRITERIA: existing criteria is Emergency Response Status for Govt. Officials Plans: Part of PROMISE Initiatives (Program for Hydromet Disaster Risk Mitigation for Asian Cities) Improving to FEWS Community based flood warning system

9 Research Finding

10 Research Finding Semi Circular Rectangular Multi Purpose Flood Diversion Tunnel in Jakarta

11 Research Finding Population Night + 8,9 M Day + 10,2 M Women 49.97% Childern < 15 Y : 7.35% Old People > 60 Y : 5.65% Family : 2,25 M House hold Density : Average : people/km 2 High : People/km 2

12 Research Finding Q (m3/jam) t (Hours) Q (m3/jam) t (Hours) Reff Horton Inf Horton SCS Nakayasu Reff Horton Inf Horton SCS Nakayasu ITB 1 ITB 2 Q (Data) Spatial Distribution of Rainfall-Runoff Hydrograph ITB 1 ITB 2 Q (Data)

13 Research Finding Simple method (ITB) Field observation Visual and Interview with local people Contribution of local people through CPhone P Could be used to confirm the flood map

14 Establishment of new Undergraduate Program of Water Resources Management and Engineering in ITB 14 Climate change adaptation effort is a long term effort. Lack of water resources engineering expert in water related Government and Private Institution The most appropriate systematic effort from university Supported by Ministry of Public Work, Min of Education and Local Government.

15 Improving Data Base Updating assessment methodology : flood hydrograph, and hydraulic/hydrology model Developing disaster risk map of both flood and drought Developing Applicable Action Plan for Local Stake Holder Contribution to Building Code Development and Improvement Technology Application for DRRP Capacity Building : New Program Study, Training Research, Education and Community Services

16 Collaboration Research

17 Thank You ありがとうございました Water Resources Engineering Research Group Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering Institute of Technology Bandung Indonesia Website: