ISES, and a Solar Energy Roadmap to a Renewable Energy World. RFF-IETA COP 16 Side Event. 6 December 2010

Transcription

1 ISES, and a Solar Energy Roadmap to a Renewable Energy World Presented by David Renné, President RFF-IETA COP 16 Side Event Panel 1: Solar Energy Prospects, Policy, and Experience 6 December 2010

2 Outline Solar Technologies, briefly PV s successful business model ISES roadmap to a RE future The role of policy The role for ISES

3 Applications of Solar Heat and Electricity Passive solar Hot water Solar Thermal Distributed Generation, on-site or near point of use Photovoltaics (PV) Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Centralized Generation, large users or utilities Transportation Residential & Commercial Buildings Industrial

4 Multiple Factors Working Together Result in Successful PV Markets

5 PV Module Production Experience (or Learning ) Curve % learning curve since 1975 Module price decreases by 20% for every doubling of cumulative production : 100 GW p 35% growth $1.00/Watt 2008: ~ 17.8 GWp ~$3.50/Watt 80% 2017 U.S. goal: $0.50/Watt Source: USDOE/NREL, Ajeet Rohatgi, Solar 2009

6 World PV Cell/Module Production (Megawatts)

7 What does the ISES Vision mean? it means a roadmap to a world powered 100% by renewable energy by the year 2050 it also means access to safe clean renewable energy for all of the world citizens so, what would such a roadmap look like, and how does ISES fit in?

8 Many Elements are Involved in a Renewable Futures Roadmap Government Policy Investment environment Access to low-cost capital ( bankability) Technology maturity and scale-up Resource availability New R&D breakthroughs Public acceptance Utility acceptance Supportive infrastructure Globalization etc. Photo credit: NREL PIX

9 however, these key elements are essential Gender empowerment Local and Community Action Urban Planning Building Design Transportation Planning Land Use Planning Consumption patterns Materials use Energy Efficiency Photo Credits: NREL PIX

10 IEA s Deploying Renewables: Principals for Effective Policies Contributes to PV Roadmap goals. 11% PV by 2050

11 Resulting CSP Resource Potential Land Area Solar Capacity Solar Generation Capacity State (mi 2 ) (MW) GWh AZ 13,613 1,742,461 4,121,268 CA 6, ,647 1,900,786 CO 6, ,758 1,886,858 NV 11,090 1,419,480 3,357,355 NM 20,356 2,605,585 6,162,729 TX 6, ,880 1,929,719 UT 23,288 2,980,823 7,050,242 Total 87,232 11,165,633 26,408,956 The table and map represent land that has no primary use today, exclude land with slope > 1%, and do not count sensitive lands. Current total nameplate capacity in the U.S. is 1,000GW w/ resulting annual generation of 4,000,000 GWh Solar Energy Resource 6.0 Capacity assumes 5 acres/mw Generation assumes 27% annual capacity factor

12 How Much can Solar Reduce U.S. Carbon Emissions? Source: ASES, Tackling Climate Change

13 The Role for ISES Global network formation (Sections, Int l Agencies) Linking developing with developed countries Technical and policy information exchange Education (ISEE) and Workforce Development Technology transfer through projects Energy equity and access programs Support to the RE Scenarios - Renewable energy potentials - Technology developments - Best practices.

14 International Solar Energy Society Non-profit Membership Organisation (NPO) NGO, accredited by the United Nations A Legacy for uniting policy, science, industry and end-user for sustainable global development Strategic partnerships with UN organizations, REN-Alliance, other NGO s Informs RE stakeholders of the latest scientific and technical developments

15 ISES Vision: Rapid Transition to a Renewable Energy World Mission: ISES provides scientifically credible and up-to date RE/EE information and networking opportunities to the global communities of scientists, educators, practitioners, industries, policy makers, and to the general public. Strategic Intent: Global Leadership Energized Membership Solid Financial Basis

16 Publications and Educational Tools Solar Energy Journal Membership Newsletter White Papers and Position Papers DVD s Pocket Reference Books.

17 Pocket Reference Books Provide technical details in specific fields in a handy, condensed format * Solar Energy Pocket Book published in 2005 * Wind Energy Pocket Book published in 2008 * Passive Solar Architecture Pocket Book published in 2009 The pocket books are a benefit of ISES membership.

18 Thank You! - RFF-IETA COP16/CMP6 Side Event ISES HQ at Villa Tannheim, Freiburg, Germany