Regional scenarios of feasable renewable energy potentials in the years 2012 / 2020

Transcription

1 REGIO Energy Regional scenarios of feasable renewable energy potentials in the years 2012 / 2020 Gregori Stanzer A project in cooperation with: REGIO Energy was powered by Klimafonds and part of the programme ENERGIE DER ZUKUNFT Goals Identifying feasable potentials of renewable energy for all districts in Austria What are the short-term realisable potentials of renewable energy up to 2012, what are the long-term potentials up to 2020? How do the different technologies of renewable energy complement one another in the different districts of Austria? Summarised potentials in comparison to the electricity and heat demand? 1

2 Investigated fields of energy Wind and earth Hydrothermal geothermal energy Wind energy Sun and water hydropower photovoltaic Solar thermic Hydro extractor Biomass forest grassland livestock farming cropland Potential calculation 2008 General criteria Existence Installed capacity: Stock data Reduced technical potential Competition in production : Among single energy sources usage restrictions: minimal efficiency: Legal character (land use regulations, environmental protection, building regulation) Economically reasonable Technical potential Covering area: Spatial competition: Technology: Earnings: Today s land use With other non-energetic land use Field proven technology Today s feasible output 2

3 midi P o t e n z i a l Reduziertes technisches Potenzial 2008 Technisches Potenzial mini maxi mini midi maxi Potential and Scenarios realisiert Scenario Scenario Scenario of realisable potentials 3

4 Using the example of wind energy Potential 2008 Scenarios 2012 & 2020 Scenario 2020 maxi criteria criteria data 4

5 Potential of wind energy 2008 Criteria wind energy existence Installed capacity : Data: IG Windkraft, own calculations reduced technical potential Competition in production: usage restrictions: minimal efficiency: Insignificant m-buffer from settlements, exlusion area (Aviation); 200-m-Buffer from nature protection areas, interregional transport network According to suitable zones Technical potential Covering area: Competition: Technology: Earnings: Suitable zones: annual average wind velocity in 100 m high > 4 m/s; < m over sea level; < 20% slope Settlements, surface water bodies 2-MW-plants GWh/km²/year 5

6 GWh / Jahr Windkraft energy Potenziale Potential of des energy Energieträgers source [GW/h [GWh / Jahr] year] Technisches Technical potential Potenzial Reduziertes Reduced technisches technical Bestand Existence Potenzial potential 2008 Quelle: MECCA consulting, IG Windkraft 6

7 Wind energy Scenarios 7

8 Scenario: criteria wind energy mini midi maxi Scenario 2012/20 Lowest historic growth ( ) Highest historic growth ( ) moderate repowering & efficiency growth from 2014 Highest historic growth ( ) Strong repowering & efficiency growth Technisches from 2014 Potenzial High government aid regionalisation split to districts according to technical potentials regionalised bonusmalus filter: bonus for districts with installed capacities 8

9 Wind energy Scenarios 2020 Regional potentials: electricity Potential 2008: hydropower criteria & potential Scenario 2020 maxi: hydropower criteria & potential Scenario 2020 maxi: Austrian potential 9

10 GWh / Jahr Potential 2008 Criteria hydropower Existence Installed capacity: Data source: E-Control GmbH Reduced technical potential Competition in production: Usage restrictions: Minimal efficiency: None Nationalparks, nature protection, water framework directive Technical minimum plant size Technical potential Covering area: Competition: Technology: Earnings: Outflow of water with technical possibility of expansion None Hydropower plant (all classes) Falling gradient potential and technical degree of efficiency Wasserkraft Hydropower Potenziale Energy source des potential Energieträgers [GW/h year] [GWh / Jahr] Technisches Technical potential Potenzial 2008 Reduziertes Reduced technical technisches Potenzial potential Existence Bestand Quelle: EEG 10

11 Scenario hydropower: Basic assumptions Scenario Assumption 2012/20 Regionalisation mini midi maxi Constant growth 45 MW el /a (= arithmetic mean ) No further incentives Constant growth 88 MW el /a (= arithmetic mean ) New incentives, short project duration Constant growth 133 MW el /a (= Mittelwert ) Technisches Potenzial Strong incentives, short project duration Federation to state: Pöyry (2008), EEG; state to district: model based on area, relief indicator, line indicator, regional factor 11

12 Scenario 2020 maxi: Potential of electricity production in Austria Technisches Potenzial Scenario 2020 maxi: Amounts of electricity sources Produktionspotenzial Austrian energy Strom Production Österreich potential Produktionspotenzial Urban areas Strom städtische Regionen ohne Wien Production potential Photovoltaics Hydropower Wind energy Biomass as a whole 12

13 Elektrischer Strom in GWh/a Reg. Balance of energy: Electricity Energy demand Austria 2008 Scenario 2020 maxi: Balance of energy Austria energy Regional Balance of Energy: Urban und rural Regional Balance of energy: Scenario 2020 for Austria Comparison Austria: Demand 2008 Potential 2020 maxi Vergleich Strombedarf und Potenzial 2020 Bestand und Potenziale 2020, maxi für Österreich Energy demand Strombedarf Szenario Scenario 2020 maxi 13

14 Scenario 2020 maxi: Degree of self sufficiency electricity 120% Selbstversorgungsgrad Strom nach Energieträgern 100% 80% 60% 40% Acker acre Forst woods Viehwirtschaft, Farming & Grassland Grünland Photovoltaik Photovoltaics Windkraft energy Wasserkraft Hydropower 20% 0% Liezen Styria Austria Liezen Steiermark Österreich Scenario 2020 maxi: Degree of self sufficiency electricity 160% Selbstversorgungsgrad Strom (Szenario 2020 maxi) 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Österreich Austria ländliche Rural regions Regionen städtische Urban regions Regionen without ohne Vienna Wien Wien Vienna gesamt 14

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16 Regional Potential: Heat Potential 2008: Biomass Forest Criteria and Potential Scenario 2020 maxi: Potential Biomass Forest Potential 2008: Potential solar heat Scenario 2020 maxi: Potential Austria Potential 2008 Criteria biomass forest Existence Installed capacity: Data source: Ökostrombericht (e-control, 2008) Biomasseheizungserhebung 2007, LLWK; 2008 Reduced technical potential Competition in production: Usage restrictions: Minimal efficiency: Log wood, timber, pulpwood Forestry law (Keep up sustainablity of the ground) All available wood can be used Technical potential Covering area: Competition: Technology: Earnings: Forestry area Same as competition in prduction Modern technological standard by forestry (at minimum chain saw) Varying by location and tree species 16

17 GWh / Jahr Biomasse - Forst forest Potenziale Potential of des energy Energieträgers source [GWH [GWh/ year / Jahr] Technisches Technical potential Potenzial Reduziertes reduced technical technisches potential Potenzial Bestand Existence 2007 Quelle: AGRAR PLUS 17

18 Solar Heat Heat pump Geothermal energy Farming and Grassland Forest Cropland Heat in GWh / a GWh / Jahr Solarthermie heat Potenziale Potential des of energy Energieträgers source [GWh/ Jahr] / year] Technisches Technical potential Potenzial Reduziertes Reduced technical technisches potential Potenzial Bestand Existence 2007 Quelle: EEG Scenario 2020 maxi: Potential of heat production in Austria Technisches Potenzial 18

19 Scenario 2020 maxi: Potential of heat production Produktionspotenzial Austrian heat Wärme Österreich Production potential Produktionspotenzial Urban areas Wärme städtische Regionen ohne Wien Production potential Solar heat Heat pumps Geothermal heat Biomass as a whole Reg. Balance of energy: heat Model of austrian heat demand 2008 Scenario 2020 maxi: Austrian balance of energy heat Regional balance of energy: urban and rural Regional balance of energy: Scenario 2020 for Austria 19

20 Elektrischer Strom in GWh/a Electricity in GWh / year Comparison Austria: Demand 2008 potential 2020 maxi Vergleich Wärmenachfrage und Potenzial 2020 Bestand und Potenziale 2020, maxi für Österreich Heat demand Wärmenachfrage Szenario Scenario 2020 maxi Scenario 2020 maxi: Degree of self sufficiency heat 100% 90% Selbstversorgungsgrad Wärme nach Energieträgern Geothermie Geothermal energy 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Liezen Styria Austria Liezen Steiermark Österreich Wärmepumpen Heat pumps Solarthermie Heat Acker Cropland Viehwirtschaft, Farming and Grünland Grassland Forst Forest 20

21 Scenario 2020 maxi: Balance of energy: heat 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Selbstversorgungsgrad Wärme (Szenario 2020 maxi) Österreich Austria ländliche Rural regions Regionen städtische Urban regions Regionen without ohne Vienna Wien Vienna Wien 21

22 Further information A project in cooperation with: REGIO Energy was powered by Klimafonds and part of the programme ENERGIE DER ZUKUNFT 22