The impact of the next big thing: (Solar) energy storage

Transcription

1 The impact of the next big thing: (Solar) energy storage Prof. Dr.-Ing. Michael Sterner et al. FENES, OTH Regensburg (Technical University OAS Regensburg) Solar Plaza Solar Trade Mission: Saudi Arabia Riyadh,

2 Content 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) Storage demand in energy transition Trends in storage technologies Forecast on cost reductions & markets Feasible renewables & storage scenario Oil and fuels from wind and solar Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 2

3 Global energy-based emissions in Gt CO 2 / a energy transition! Gas Not if, but when. Oil Coal Year Source: Sterner, Stadler, 2014 Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 3

4 Ramp up renewables deal with ramping & fluctuations Germany 2020: Renewable feed-in and wind + solar Source: IWES, Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 4

5 Wind & Solar will not make the transformation on it s own We need flexibility options: 1. Highly flexible power plants 2. Power network 3. Demand side management 4. Storage Short-term (hydro, batteries, comp. air) Long-term (hydro, gas network) Wind Solar Power-to-Gas Gas storage Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 5

6 Trends in Storage Technologies Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 6

7 Definition Energy Storage Source: Sterner, FENES, 2013 Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 7

8 The storage problem is solved - technically Source: Sterner, Stadler, 2014 Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 8

9 Battery parks for primary control plus PV replaces conventional power plants (Inside park) Source: Younicos AG Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 9

10 Battery parks for primary control plus PV replaces conventional power plants (Outside park) Source: Younicos AG Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 10

11 Home (PV) battery systems Grid parity in Germany & many other places Mayor issue: subsidies for fossils Source: Fotolia, 2014 Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 11

12 Heat storage via Power-to-Heat and CHP as low cost flexibility (but no way back) In Southern Countries: Match PV & Air Conditioning = Storage Source: N-Ergie 2013 Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 12

13 Pumped hydro efficient and established storage technology but limited geografically & in acceptance Source: Schluchseewerk, 2013 Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 13

14 How does nature store energy for long periods of time? Chemical energy (fossil, bio) E ciency: 1% to biofuel 0,5% Core process: 1) splitting of water 2) hydrogen reacts with CO 2 Source: Sterner et al, 2011 Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 14

15 Power-to-Gas The original Energy storage by coupling electricity and gas networks Technical copy of photosynthesis photosynthetic fuel Sterner, M. (2009): Bioenergy and renewable power methane in integrated 100% renewable energy systems. Limiting global warming by transforming energy systems. Kassel University, Dissertation. Source: Sterner, 2009 Specht et al, 2010 Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 15

16 Power-to-Gas pilot plants Power E-ON Power fuel Audi Source: E-On, 2013 Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 16

17 Trends and forecasts on cost reduction & market outlook Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 17

18 Batteries will experience a strong cost decrease Driver: electromobility & home storage systems Expected cost reduction of stationary Li-Ion-systems (1 kw, 4 kwh) in / kwh ~40% ~60% ~80% Source: ISEA for Agora, 2014 Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 18

19 First markets for new batteries: Mobility, control power and home storage Assumption of future battery markets in GW Average power demand (Germany) min max min max min max Control power Home storage Mobility Source: ISEA for Agora, 2014 Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 19

20 Cost reduction of Power-to-Gas plants Invest costs for Power-to-Gas in / kw % Kostenreduktion cost reduction 2014 Agora 2023 Annahme 2023 Agora 2033 Annahme Bandwidth Lower Upper ,01 0, Installed Power-to-Gas Capacity in GW Source: FENES for Agora, 2014 Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 20

21 First markets for Power-to-Gas: Mobility and Chemical Industry Assumption of future Power-to-Gas markets in GW Chemical Industry Average power demand (Germany) Mobility 20 0 min max min max min max Power Source: FENES for Agora, 2014 Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 21

22 Oil and fuels from wind and solar Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 22

23 Challence Energiewende Transformation of energy systems Power transition Fuel transition Heat transition? Renewable energy shares in Germany 2011 Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 23

24 Challenge: sufficient fuel supply for mobility Biomass - Potential avail. land - Acceptance - Sustainability - Food vs. Fuel Electromobility - Range - Costs Power fuels as solution? - Power-to-Gas - Power-to-Liquids Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 24

25 Power-to-Gas in energy and transport 100% renewables are possible 1. national long-term storage using existing infrastructure 2. stable renewable power supply via back-up gas power plants 3. CO 2 -neutral long distance mobility Source: Sterner et al, 2011 Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 25

26 Surplus electricity is not enough! more resources! Biomass - Potential avail. land - Acceptance - Sustainability - Food vs. Fuel Electromobility - Range - Costs Power fuels as solution? - Power-to-Gas - Power-to-Liquids Total potential power surplus at 100% renewables: about 4 % of all fuel demand in Germany Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 26

27 The sea: Huge untapped potential available 10 m avg. wind speeds & not-in-my-backyard Source: Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 27

28 Solve the fluctuation problem: How can we follow the wind? Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 28

29 Energy harvesting ships How it works Source: Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 29

30 Energy harvesting ships How it works rotating cylinders (Flettner) Source: Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 30

31 Generating ocean fuels at sea Combination of existing technology Bildquellen: maritime-connector.com, Voith Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 31

32 Sail energy: Optimized routing Example 3 month trip total 7000 h (80%) utilization Source: Patentiert Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 32

33 Costs by vessel size Economically feasibly from 5 MW on (vessel lenght > 120 m) Powerto- Gas Production cost of fuel in e Cent kwh Hydrogen Average Optimum Methane (Natural Gas) Electrical power in MW Powerto- Liquid Source: Methanol Market prices: Biogas: 7 ct/kwh 1 Methanol: 7,41 ct/kwh 2 Green Hydrogen: ct/kwh 3 An der Tankstelle: 18 ct/kwh x 10 = 1,80 /l Benzinäquivalent vor Steuern; Benzin: ca. 10 kwh/l 1: BWK , S. 89 2: Börsenpreis 12/2012 3: Abnahmepreis Windgas Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 33

34 Renewables and storage pay off Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 34

35 Source: Gerhard Mester, 2012 Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 35

36 Myth: Green power is expensive Wind & PV cheaper than conventional power gen. 12 Not included: storage costs External costs (disposal, CO 2 ) a Inflation neutral Wind PV Gas Hard Coal Nuclear Power generation costs for new power plants in -cent / kwh 2013 Source: Agora 2013, with data of EWI Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 36

37 Germany imports primary energy for 100 Billion every year, esp. coal, oil & gas. In 10 years, we burn 1000 Bio. Invest this in renewables & infrastructure (networks + storage) is an attractive investment Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 37

38 Energy Mix Study Business model Energiewende Jährlicher Primärenergieverbrauch [TWh/a] Gesamt Kernenergie Braunkohle Steinkohle Erdgas Mineralöl EE-Strom Biomasse Geothermie Solarthermie Biokraftstoffe biogener Müll Quelle: Gerhardt et al., 2013 ( Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 38

39 Return of invest: 4 7 % until 2050 Study Business model Energiewende Safed fossil cost Gutschrift durch Brennstoffeinsparungen PV Wind Onshore Wind Offshore Andere Erneuerbare Infrastrukturkosten E-Mobility Power2Gas und weitere Speicher Wärmepumpen Gebäudeisolation Kapitalkosten Deckungsbeitrag (inkl. Kapitalkosten) Kosten [Mrd. Euro] Coar in Bio Szenariojahr Year Source: Gerhardt et al., 2013 ( Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 39

40 Transformation All energy sectors Global scale Source: Sterner, 2009 Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 40

41 IWES global scenario 100% renewables for WBGU Energy-related GHG emissions Ca. 730 G t CO 2 until 2050 keep 2 C target with 67% probability, but this requires a massive transformation of global energy systems Source: Schmid, Sterner, 2009 Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 41

42 Summary The Energy transition is just a matter of time not if The storage problem is solved - technically All storage technologies are required - no silver bullet Storage markets will evolve first in mobility & solar storage Sail energy ships can harvest huge offshore wind potentials and generate wind fuels without land use The Energy Transition is feasible generation s project Regulatory framework is decisive (e. g. CO 2 price tag) - buy: 100 / t CO 2 vs. disposal in the air: 6 / t CO 2 Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 42

43 Read on Sterner, Stadler Energy Storage 750 p., 400 fig. Sept at Springer-Editors Quelle: Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 43

44 Contact Prof. Dr.-Ing. Michael Sterner Research Center for Energy Networks and Energy Storage Forschungsstelle Energienetze und Energiespeicher (FENES) Ostbayerische Technische Hochschule Regensburg Technical University of Applied Sciences Regensburg, Germany + 49 (0) oth-regensburg.de Prof. Dr. Sterner, OTH.R, S. 44