Renewable Electricity In California up to July 2014

Transcription

1 PV Magazine, August 2014, pv-magazine.com in Renewable Electricity In California up to July 2014 Bernard CHABOT Consulting and Training on Sustainable and Renewable Energy BCCONSULT GARBEJAIRE B107, VALBONNE - FRANCE bechabot@wanadoo.fr 1

2 Summary and Key Figures From CAISO data, from January to July 2014, with TWh, renewable electricity production in California was 17.7 % of the total electricity demand of TWh. With large hydro, contribution was 23.4 %. On the same period, wind power production of 8.68 TWh covered 6.5 % of demand, and solar power production of 6.74 TWh (91.4 % from PV and 8.6 % from solar thermal) was 5 % of demand. Electricity demand increased by more than 15 % in July compared to June, and due to a decreasing monthly production from both wind and solar, this increase of 3.1 TWh in demand was covered mainly from a sharp increase of more than 44% of the in-state thermal production from fossil fuels. in July, with 3,834 GWh, renewable production was 16.4 % of the demand of 23,409 GWh (compared to 21.4 % in June, the 2014 maximum monthly RE share), compared to 6.6 % from large hydropower, 6.9 % from nuclear and 42.4 % from thermal conventional power plants. At TWh, in-state production was 72.3 % of the demand, and imports 27.7 % (6.43 TWh) Both wind and solar production were lower in July compared to June. Maximum hourly and mean power values in July were 3,943 MW from wind (mean: 1,904 MW, 1,417 GWh delivered, 6.1 % of demand), 4,752 MW from Solar (mean: 1,696 MW, 1,187 GWh delivered, 5.1 % of demand) and for [Wind + Solar] 6,979 MW (mean 3,500 MW, 2,604 GWh delivered, 11.1 % of demand). The day of the lowest monthly demand (July 20), at noon 16 % of hourly demand was covered by solar and 21 % by [Wind + Solar], compared to a combined maximum of 27 % on June 25. PV only maximum power was 4,121 MW, mean power 1,433 MW, energy delivered 1,065 GWh representing 89.8 % of the total solar production and 4.6 % of total monthly demand. Solar thermal power production in July 2014 was GWh, or 10.2 % of the 1,187 total solar production (and 0.52 % of demand), with an average power of 163 MW and a maximum of 676 MW. Solar production was less stable in July compared to June, particularly for solar thermal production. 2

3 Content Introduction: Slide 4 Monthly electricity and RE power in California in 2014: Slides 5-18 Electricity in California in July 2014: Slides Renewable electricity in California in July 2014: Slides Focus on solar PV and solar thermal power in July 2014: Slides Hourly RE production in July 2014: Slides Classified RE curves in July 2014: Slides Typical daily production profiles in July 2014: Slides

4 Introduction Refer to preceding articles on electricity production in CA: Renewable Electricity In California in June 2014, online July 22, 2014 and downloadable as PDF at: 64-of-californias-electricity-demand-in-june_ / Renewable Electricity In California in May 2014, online June 2014 and downloadable as PDF at: Analysis of Renewable Electricity Production by States in USA in 2013, Online March 18, 2014 and downloadable as PDF at: Renewable Electricity In California in March 2014, online April 2014 and downloadable as PDF at: Renewable Electricity in California in 2013 with a focus on December, online January 3, 2014 and downloadable as PDF at: Renewable Energy for Electricity in California in 2012 and its Future Role, online on August 19, 2013 and downloadable as pdf at: Renewable Energy for Electricity in California In 2012, online January 8, 2013 at: All hourly production data form CAISO web-site: Analysis for all electricity production and imports: Power, energy, penetration rates: % of daily, monthly and yearly demand Aggregate of production: [Solar PV+ Solar Thermal], [Wind + Solar], RE = [wind + solar + biomass + biogas + small hydropower + Geothermal], [RE + Large hydro (LH)] 4

5 Electricity and Renewable Power in California in

6 Share of electricity demand in

7 Monthly Electricity Production in

8 Monthly Electricity Production in

9 Share of Monthly Electricity Production in

10 Monthly RE Electricity Production in

11 Monthly RE Production in

12 Monthly Wind and Solar Production in

13 Share of RE Monthly Electricity Production in

14 Share of RE Monthly Electricity Production in

15 Solar PV Production in California in

16 Solar Thermal Power Production in California in

17 Solar PV + Solar Thermal Power in California in

18 Solar power in California on January-June, Data from CAISO January February March April May June July 1-7/2014 Demand (GWh/month) Solar PV (MW max) Solar PV (MW mean) Solar PV (GWh) 520,7 565,8 830,6 938, , , , ,4 Solar PV (% solar) 99,0% 95,9% 93,2% 91,4% 90,4% 87,6% 89,8% 91,4% Solar PV (% demand) 2,9% 3,5% 4,7% 5,3% 5,4% 5,6% 4,6% 4,6% Solar Thermal (MW max) Solar Thermal (MW mean) Solar Thermal (GWh) 5,2 24,0 60,5 88,0 113,6 160,0 121,4 572,7 Solar Thermal (% solar) 1,0% 4,1% 6,8% 8,6% 9,6% 12,4% 10,2% 8,6% Solar Thermal (% demand) 0,03% 0,15% 0,34% 0,50% 0,58% 0,79% 0,52% 0,43% Total Solar (MW max) Total Solar (MW mean) Total Solar (GWh) Total Solar (% demand) 2,9% 3,7% 5,1% 5,8% 6,0% 6,4% 5,1% 5,0% 18

19 Electricity in California in July

20 Share of demand in July

21 * Since June 26, 2013, only one nuclear reactor in operation in California (Diablo Canyon 2) * Renewables > [Large hydropower + Nuclear] 21

22 Daily production and imports in July

23 Renewable Electricity in California in July

24 * Solar monthly production third after hydropower (first) and wind power production * [Wind + Solar ] near half of [RE + Hydro] production 24

25 Statistical analysis of electricity production in 7/2014 California Statistical analysis of daily production (MWh/day) July 2014 Max Min Max/Min Average Median Rel. St. Dev. GEOTHERMAL , ,6% BIOMASS , ,6% BIOGAS , ,8% SMALL HYDRO , ,4% WIND , ,2% SOLAR , ,3% RENEWABLES , ,7% HYDRO , ,7% Renewables + hydro , ,0% NUCLEAR , ,1% THERMAL , ,3% IMPORTS , ,3% Total demand , ,0% 25

26 * Wind power is the most variable daily production, decreasing after June * Due to its growth in installed power and increasing solar irradiation, solar power production is now near two times geothermal power production 26

27 Daily RE production in July

28 Focus on Solar PV and Solar Thermal Power in July

29 * Larger production from solar PV (90 %), but solar thermal production increasing to 10 % * Even if all PV production ( behind the meter ) is not monitored by CAISO * Even if some solar thermal production is from natural gas complement 29

30 * Daily solar thermal and power production less stable than in June * Solar thermal production much more sensible to the daily solar irradiation changes than PV 30

31 Daily solar thermal and PV production in July

32 Hourly RE Production and % of Demand in July

33 Hourly RE Power and Penetration Rates in July 2014 July 2014 P wind P pv P sol Therm P RE P demand P [PV+Thermal] P [Wind+Solar] Maxi MW Average MW Mini MW Median MW St. Dev Rel. St. Dev. 48,4% 109,9% 134,2% 28,7% 17,6% 110,7% 41,3% July 2014 % Wind % Total Solar % [Wind + Solar] % Total RE Maxi % 14,7% 15,9% 20,9% 26,9% Average % 6,1% 5,1% 11,1% 16,4% Mini % 0,33% 0,0% 1,6% 7,4% Median % 6,2% 1,5% 10,7% 16,4% 33

34 RE and [Wind + Solar] Hourly Penetration Rates in 7/

35 % of demand from Wind, Solar, [Wind + Solar] in 7/

36 [Wind + Solar] Hourly Power in 7/

37 Wind Hourly Power in 7/

38 Total Solar Hourly Power in 7/

39 Solar PV Hourly Power in 7/

40 Solar Thermal Hourly Power in 7/

41 Duration Curves for Wind and Solar in July

42 Duration curves for Wind, Solar and [Wind + Solar] in 7/

43 Duration curves for PV, Solar thermal and [PV+ Solar thermal] in 7/

44 Typical RE Production Daily Profiles in July

45 Maximum Wind Power (and maxi RE): July 17,

46 Minimum Wind Power: July 25,

47 Maxi solar: July 22,

48 Minimum Solar (and minimum RE): July 14,

49 Maximum demand: July 31,

50 Minimum demand (and maximum % RE): July 20 50