16 February The World May Have Entered a Period of Greater Oil Price Stability,

Transcription

1 16 Febrary 2014 AO / 8 INTERVIEW The World May Have Entered a Period of reater Oil Price Stability, Jean-Lois Schilansky, President of the French Oil Indstry Union (UFIP), tells AO The oil markets lived throgh the political crises of 2013 withot too mch difficlty. Energy transition remains necessary de to the dangers posed by climate change. The search for greater energy efficiency remains an essential strategic priority. The Eropean refining indstry s breakeven point cold be appreciably lower than its crrent prodction capacity. We think there is significant shale hydrocarbon potential in France. [Following is the text of an interview with Mr. Jean-Lois Schilansky, President of the French Oil Indstry Union (Union Française des Indstries Pétrolières UFIP) see page 10 for his biography. The interview took place at the headqarters of UFIP in Paris on 5 Febrary. AO last pblished an interview with Mr. Schilansky in its 16 April 2013 edition.]. Arab Oil & as: Crde oil prices, and especially that of North Sea Brent, have settled within a bracket of $100 to $110 per barrel over the past three years ( ) and yo have pointed ot that both crde prices and refined prodct prices were less volatile in 2013 than in previos years. How can one explain this phenomenon? Have we entered a period of greater oil price stability after the crazy years of the second half of the last decade? n Jean-Lois Schilansky: This redced volatility is taking place at a time when the gap between world oil prodction capacity and demand has narrowed significantly over the past few years. It was estimated at 1.8 million barrels/day in 2013, compared with 3 million b/d in 2012 and 5 million b/d in In the past, however, the smaller this safety cshion became, the greater the volatility of prices, which is easily nderstood. In 2013, it appears that the sitation was reversed, despite the fall in crde oil prodction in Libya and Syria. The oil markets lived throgh these political storms withot too mch difficlty. They are ths seeing reasons for things to calm down, and there are essentially three of them: the prospect of Iran s retrn to the oil market if an agreement is conclded on the contry s nclear program; OPEC s policy of keeping the level of its prodction in tne with market conditions; and the growth in the United States oil prodction. With a degree of cation, one might think that, were these three factors to prove lasting, the Copyright : O. Thillier, AgriAgency.

2 AO / 9 16 Febrary 2014 World Oil Demand (Mb/d) Sorces : IEA, BP, Rexecode. Development of Brent Prices,

3 16 Febrary 2014 AO / 10 world might have entered a period of greater oil price stability. Some people talk abot the possibility of a sharp fall in prices as early as this year, bt that scenario looks implasible over time, since crde oil prodction costs are climbing ever frther and OPEC contries, especially Sadi Arabia, wold not stand idly by in sch a sitation. For these same reasons, a sharp rise in prices also seems nlikely, barring major political events. The greater price stability we are now seeing cold ths prove strctral. The growth in prodction in non-opec zones otside the Middle East the United States, Canada, Brazil, Kazakhstan is contribting to this stability. AO: For the first time in many years, there is a significant likelihood of economic sanctions against Iran being lifted. Iran is a major oil and gas power in terms of proven reserves, so this wold be a new development of potentially great importance. n J.-L. S.: That prospect and the possibility of its becoming reality are firstly a factor of stabilization for the international oil market. It is probably a factor that wold psh down prices, bt one has to bear in mind that the effective retrn of Iran to the markets will take a long time. That said, we are not heading for a global oil shortage, qite the contrary. The age of oil is really far from over, especially at a time when China, the world s second The age of oil is really far from over largest oil consmer after the United States, seems to be slowly scceeding in disassociating its economic growth from the growth in its oil demand. As regards natral gas, downward pressres cold be stronger than in the case of oil, since the world is heading for an abndance of this energy sorce. In particlar, there is greater potential at a world level for shale gas than for shale oil, which reqires very specific geological conditions. The United States will become a net gas exporter in the coming years. And in the > Jean-Lois Schilansky President of the French Oil Indstry Union (UFIP) since Jne 2008 French Oil Indstry Union (Union Française des Indstries Pétrolières - UFIP) is a trade association that represents companies operating in France in one of the three main segments of the oil indstry: oil and natral gas exploration and prodction, refining, and distribtion. WHO S WHO After occpying the post of Exective Director of the UFIP between 2001 and Jne 2008, Jean-Lois Schilansky was appointed President of UFIP on 18 Jne He is the official spokesman of this organization, which has arond 30 member companies. Jean-Lois Schilansky started his career with Mobil. He was responsible for the company s diversification activities and sbseqently became Regional Director of the Mobil France network, Managing Director of Mobil Cyprs, Planning Analyst in New York, Planning and Spply Director in London, Refining and Marketing Director France, and Vice- President of Mobil Erope in London. In 1998 he was appointed President of Mobil Erope in London, and then in 2000 Regional Director for Erope of ExxonMobil, based in Brssels. Jean-Lois Schilansky holds a diploma from the Ecole Nationale Spériere des Mines and since 2004 has been a member of France s Economic, Social and Environmental Concil (CESE), where he heads the economic activities section. He chairs the Energy Committee of the French indstry federation, Medef, and is also President of Medef Paris. Sorce: UFIP.

4 AO / Febrary 2014 case of conventional gas, new prodcers are going to emerge in sb-saharan Africa and the Near East. As regards Iran, it has considerable gas potential bt it will reqire a lot of investment and the development of large-scale and costly infrastrctre. AO: At UFIP s annal press conference this morning, when yo referred to the energy transition in France, yo seemed to indicate that it wold not really be necessary de to the abndance of fossil fel resorces. Can yo explain yor opinion on that sbject? J.-L. S.: That relative abndance certainly makes it hard for the general pblic to nderstand the need for energy transition. This remains necessary becase of the threat that climate change represents for the world. In that regard, the search for greater energy efficiency has to remain an essential strategic priority. In the case of renewable energies, the sitation is more complex, since one has to take accont of the rise in energy costs that their development generates, the cost of sbsidies, and the isse of electricity storage. The intermittence of wind and solar power raises technical and economic problems that one cannot ignore and is a factor limiting the potential for the development of these renewable energy sorces. As for biomass, there is a need to shift towards second-generation biofels, which do not come into competition with the planet s food needs. Energy transition is essential, and that is tre of all contries and not solely of France. We have to go down this road, bt do so in a sensible not an ideological manner, in good time and taking accont of the associated costs. AO: On the sbject of the Eropean refining sector, yo pointed ot that its margins are low, that the indstry is caght in a competitiveness pincer movement between the new refineries in Asia and the Middle East and refineries in the United States, and that operating conditions are extremely difficlt. Yo added that the restrctring of the Eropean refining sector had not been completed and that more refineries wold close in the ftre. In other words, we are not ot of the woods yet. Bt can we see any light at the end of the tnnel? J.-L. S.: I m afraid we are not there yet. Economic operating conditions remain very nfavorable in relation to or principal competitors, and the indstry s breakeven point cold be appreciably lower than its crrent prodction capacity. AO: Appreciably lower? Yes to energy transition, bt in a sensible manner J.-L. S.: One cannot rle that ot. Bt spply secrity considerations cold nevertheless contribte to halting or slowing down the restrctring process at a certain moment and at a certain level. AO: ross refining margins in Erope averaged 18 eros per ton in 2013, half the 2012 level of 36 eros a ton. That figre corresponds to the average level between 2009 and 2011 (when margins averaged 15, 21 and 14 eros a ton respectively), bt crrent margins are considerably lower than the average over the period, which was 23 eros a ton. According to UFIP, the French refining indstry lost 700 million eros last year. What rate of margin is reqired for this indstry to stop losing money? J.-L. S.: To balance its acconts, or indstry needs a margin of abot 32 eros a ton. That level wold enable it to cover its operating costs, not inclding depreciation.

5 16 Febrary 2014 AO / 12 AO: French oil demand contined to decline in 2013, dropping to 75 million tons from 76 million tons in 2012 and 89 million tons in Has it bottomed ot? Copyright : O. Thillier, AgriAgency. J.-L. S.: No, I don t think so. The slow decline in French consmption can be expected to contine nder the effect of greater energy efficiency in all sectors, which is also a beneficial development for the French economy as a whole. AO: Faced with that demand of 75 million tons in 2013, available refining capacity in France amonted to no more than 69 million tons, provided by eight operational refineries arond the contry. We are ths in a sitation of overall nder-capacity. Theoretically, no more refineries shold have to be closed in France. J.-L. S.: There is no longer a sitation of over-capacity in the French refining sector. Bt or indstry remains vlnerable, since it is generally less competitive than its non-eropean competitors. Clearly, the indstry cannot sstain the scale of the losses it sffered in The scale of French refiners losses in 2013 is not sstainable AO: Yo pointed ot that the share of diesel-engined vehicles in new car registrations in France in Janary this year showed a slight decline, at 70%. Yo nevertheless seemed to play down the positive impact of this trend for the French refining indstry if this proved to be a lasting phenomenon. To the extent that France imports 56% of the diesel oil it consmes and exports 40% of the gasoline it prodces, a possible rebalancing of the market wold be very important in the long term. J.-L. S.: It wold give the French refining indstry some breathing-space and that cold benefit some of the contry s refineries. Bt sch a development wold not significantly improve refining margins. AO: What is the sitation as regards deepwater exploration off the coast of French yana? J.-L. S.: After the first well drilled on the yane Maritime block operated by Royal Dtch Shell in 2011 proved positive, the consortim holding this concession drilled for appraisal wells that all yielded negative reslts. It was decided to pt exploration operations on hold for In-depth stdies are going to be condcted of all the available data before a possible resmption of exploration operations from 2015 onwards. AO: France is regarded as a contry with a certain potential in terms of shale hydrocarbons. Of corse, exploration work wold have to be carried ot to confirm or disprove that, bt do yo share that opinion on the basis of or crrent state of knowledge? J.-L. S.: We think there is significant shale gas potential in soth-eastern France and shale oil potential in the Paris basin.

6 AO / Febrary 2014 AO: Yo have vigorosly defended the tilization of hydralic fractring, which is crrently the only method sed for extracting shale hydrocarbons on an indstrial scale. UFIP seems to have adopted a harder line in this area than in the recent past. J.-L. S.: Things have evolved a lot in this area, and several visits to the United States have enabled me to verify things on the grond. The operators that tilize hydralic fractring in the U.S., which are increasingly major oil companies, have made considerable progress in terms of protecting the environment and taking it The environmental risks of hydralic fractring are largely nder control now into accont. There has not been any established case of grond water polltion; we know how to recover almost all the water sed in the hydralic fractring process; and the additives tilized are increasingly derived from the agro-food indstry. The environmental risks of this technology have largely been broght nder control and in that regard it is important to present the facts to French pblic opinion and political decision-makers. AO: According to reports pblished by the French satirical magazine Le Canard Enchaîné, the French Minister of Prodctive Recovery, Mr. Arnad Monteborg, is trying to promote the tilization of heptafloropropane fractring in a bid to get rond the French ban on hydralic fractring. What is yor view on that? J.-L. S.: We welcome the interest the Minister is showing in shale hydrocarbons and in what their development cold contribte to French indstry and the national economy, bt firstly it has to be said that hydralic fractring shold not be stigmatized, since it has largely proved its worth. However, it is necessary to allocate resorces to condcting research into other possible flids and it is clear that other methods will appear. AO: One of yor concerns in France is the award of new hydrocarbon exploration licenses. Two licenses were assigned in 2013, bt another 112 applications remain blocked and yo have raised this problem with the athorities concerned. The fact that a process for reforming the mining code is nderway cold jstify these delays, bt yo don t seem flly convinced by that explanation. J.-L. S.: Officials have effectively responded to or concerns by sing the argment of the mining code reform. We cold nderstand that argment to a certain degree, bt it might also be sed as a pretext. It remains in France s essential interest to step p hydrocarbon exploration on its soil.