Assessment of policies on GHG mitigation in Vietnam

Transcription

1 Service Center for Development Cooperation (KEPA) Green Innovation and Development Centre (GreenID) REPORT Assessment of policies on GHG mitigation in Vietnam Implemented by Green Innovation and Development Centre (GreenID) Hanoi, March 7, P a g e

2 Contents 1. Introduction Current and projected GHG emissions Legal documents governing GHG mission reductions Assessment of the emission reduction targets Assessment the stage: target setting Assessment the stage: Implementation organization Assessment the stage: Monitoring and Evaluation What did experts say about these emission reduction targets? Conclusions and recommendations References Annex P a g e

3 List of Figures Figure 1: Emission reduction scenarios by VGGS Figure 2: Policy implementation cycle Figure 3: An example of MACC for energy sector developed in the NC List of Tables Table 1: Evolution of GHG emission in Vietnam... 7 Table 2: GHG projection in the period (million ton CO2 eq)... 8 Table 3: GHG mitigation and cost identified in the Initial National Communication... 9 Table 4: GHG mitigation and cost identified in the Second National Communication Table 5: Summary on GHG reduction targets Table 1: List of experts for consultation on binding enforceability & feasibility of GHG emission reduction targets P a g e

4 Abbreviations ADB ALGAS BAU CIEM GDP GHG GreenID IE INSPONRE JICA KEPA LEAD LEAF LULUCF MACC MARD MOIT MONRE MPI NC1 NC2 NTP-RCC UNFCCC VGGS WB Asian Development Bank Asia Least-cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy Business As Usual Central Institute for Economic Management Gross Domestic Products Greenhouse Gases Green Innovation and Development Centre Institute of Energy Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment Japanese International Cooperation Agency Service Centre for Development Cooperation Low Emission Asian Development Program Lowering Emissions in Asia s Forests Program Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry Marginal Abatement Cost Curve Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development Ministry of Industry and Trade Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment Ministry of Planning and Investment Initial National Communication Second National Communication National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Vietnam Green Growth Strategy World Bank 4 P a g e

5 1. Introduction Vietnam is considered as one of few countries that are strongly affected by climate change, especially sea level rise. In fact, Vietnam has been already impacted by climate change. In the past 50 years, the annual average temperature has increased by about C and the corresponding sea level rise was 20 cm. The impacts include flooding, drought, salinization, soil erosion (particularly in the Mekong Delta region), and cyclone. In 10 years from , these natural disasters caused significant damage to both human casualties and properties. The economic damage was estimated at 1.5% GDP/year. According to climate change scenarios, by the end of the twenty-first century, the annual average temperature increases in the range of C. Total annual rainfall increases and rainfall pattern changes it increases in rainy season and decreases in dry season. Sea level can rise up to 1.0 m causing flood in many areas and could damage up to 10% of GDP (PM, 2011c). Climate change threatens economic production, energy and food security, livelihoods, biodiversity, infrastructure, health and Vietnam achievements towards the Millennium Goals. Responding to climate change is no longer an environment issue rather a socio-economic issue. Solving the problem of climate change is a key priority of the Vietnam Government that stated in the 2 rd National Communication to UNFCCC (MONRE, 2010). In response to this, the Socio-economic Development Strategy for attaches environmental protection to economic development and consider green growth as principals in achieving sustainable development. The Vietnam National Climate Change (VCCS) approved in 2011 focuses on adaptation and aims to ensure food security, energy security, water security, poverty alleviation, gender equality, social security, and public health; enhance living standards; and conserve natural resources (PM, 2011). Along with adaptation, Vietnamese Government also pays attention to GHG control and reduction as a contribution to global efforts to respond to climate change. The Vietnam Green Growth Strategy (VGGS) approved in 2012 establishes targets of reducing intensity of GHG by 8-10 percent by 2020 below the 2010 level and reducing total GHG emission at least 1.5 to 2 percent per year, compared with BAU levels by 2030 (PM, 2012). While the Vietnamese Government has taken great efforts to make these commitments, their implementation is depending on whether these commitments are relevant, well-formulated and the resources necessary for the implementation is available. Therefore, the Green Innovation and Development Centre (GreenID) with the financial support by the Service Centre for Development Cooperation (KEPA) has decided to make assessment of development and implementation of these commitments. The following coverage is intended: Conduct a thorough review of legal documents governing GHG emission reduction targets, including those served as basis for the development of GHG emission targets and documents on GHG inventory and projections Assess the feasibility of the GHG emission reduction targets 5 P a g e

6 The study is conducted at the office by reviewing related documents plus interviewing experts to verify the findings of the desk study and to seek additional findings and solutions. Essentially, the study will examine GHG reduction policies by their three stages of implementation: (i) policy setting (ii) implementation organization, and (iii) impact evaluation i.e.., actual outcomes of the policy versus expected. For each stage, several aspects would be looked at and evaluated. The report proceeds as follows. Section 2 gives a review of studies on GHG inventory and GHG projection. Section 3 gives a summary of legal documents governing GHG reduction targets as background for the assessment in the subsequent steps. Section 4 presents the methodology used to examine the feasibility of these reduction targets and discuss the results of evaluation. Section 5 reports consultation results of experts and section 6 concludes. 2. Current and projected GHG emissions Vietnam signed and ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1994 and the Kyoto Protocol in 2002 and approved the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change (NTP-RCC) in The Government of Vietnam has designated the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) as the national Focal Point to coordinate the implementation of the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol. MONRE is also the designated agency for the implementation of the NTP-RCC. Vietnam submitted its Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC Secretariat in December 2003 in which GHG emission inventory for 1994 was estimated. However, there are other inventories which were undertaken prior under other initiatives. So far, 5 inventories have been made (UNVN, 2012). They are the followings (Year of inventory are in front). 1990: Under project Climate Change in Asia: Vietnam 1993: Under project Asia Least-cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy (ALGAS) 1994: First National Communication to UNFCCC 1998: Under the National Initiative 2000: Second National Communication to UNFCCC These inventories were conducted for sectors following provisions by the UNFCCC and IPCC: Energy, Industrial processes, Land use, Land use change and forestry (LULUCF), Agriculture, and Waste. The most recent inventory was made for the year 2000 by the Second National Communication to UNFCCC submitted to the Secretariat of UNFCCC in October There are 19 key categories for Vietnam, with six from LULUCF (CO2 removals from forest land remaining forest land, CO2 and CH4 emissions from forest soils, CO2 emissions from forest and grassland conversion, CO2 removals from abandoned managed lands, and CH4 emissions from forest and grassland conversion), four from agriculture (CH4 emissions from rice cultivation, direct N2O emissions from agricultural soils, CH4 6 P a g e

7 emissions from enteric fermentation, and CH4 emissions from manure management), six from energy (CO2 emissions from manufacturing and construction, CO2 emissions from mobile combustion, CO2 emissions from liquid fuels, CO2 emissions from solid fuels, fugitive CO2 emissions from oil and natural gas, and CO2 emissions from commercial stationary combustion), two from industrial processes (CO2 emissions from iron and steel and CO2 emissions from cement production), and one from waste (CH4 from solid waste disposal) (MONRE, 2010). Vietnam anticipates starting work on its Third National Communication and Biennial Update Report (BUR). Nearly all emission estimates for Vietnam to date have relied on the IPCC default (Tier 1). A combination of country-specific and default emission factors were used for CH4 emissions for rice cultivation. Inventory results are summarized in Table 1. Total GHG emission in 2000 was 151 million ton with the agriculture sector occupied the biggest share 43%, followed by the Energy at 35%. Compared with 1994, the emission increased on average 6.4% per year. GHG emission from the energy sector increased the fastest, on average 12.8% bringing its GHG share in 2000 to 35% from 24.7% in Table 1: Evolution of GHG emission in Vietnam Sectors Emission in CO 2 e % Emission in CO 2 e % Emission in CO 2 e % (million tons) (million tons) (million tons) Energy Industrial processes LULUCF Agriculture Waste Total Source: UNVN, Climate Change Factsheets Existing projects with GHG inventory include the JICA funded Project titled Project for Capacity Building for National Greenhouse Gas Inventory in Vietnam and the ADB-TA7779vie. The former aims at delivering three outputs: (i) Development of National System, (ii) Enhancement of the Awareness of Importance of GHG Inventories, and (iii) Improvement of estimation methods. The time frame of the project is 2 years from February 2012 to February Activity 1 addresses the fact that there is a lack of a specialized body on GHG inventory, monitoring and reporting. Activity 3 addresses two aspects of GHG emission inventory which are lacking and/or unreliable i.e., activity data and emission factors. Under this broad activity, inventories for 2005 and 2010 are being made. The ADB Technical Assistance ADB-TA7779vie, full name Support for the National on Climate Change with a focus on Energy and Transport focuses on both adaption and mitigation. GHG inventory for energy sector in 2010 and prediction of GHG till 2030 are amongst the deliverables of the projects. The inventory however, just covers emission from energy sector and relies on default IPCC emission factors. 7 P a g e

8 USAID supported Lowering Emissions in Asia s Forests (LEAF) program has provided training on emission factor development necessary for the creation of LULUCF reference levels. LEAF is now following this training up with technical support necessary for both the development of EFs and a reference level in Lam Dong Province (USAID, 2013). The Second National Communication (NC2) also made estimates for three major GHG emission sectors for the period of including Energy, Agriculture and LULUCF. Accordingly, energy sector is expected to become the biggest GHG emitter in 2010, with annual growth rate during of 7.4%. There is also an increase in GHG emission from the Agriculture but not at a significant rate which tends to saturate. Emission from LULUCF is projected to become negative, which is explained by increasing afforestration resulting in increasing carbon sequestration. GHG emissions of these three sectors combined are estimated to increase at 5.7% per annum during Table 2: GHG projection in the period (million ton CO2 eq) Sector Energy LULUCF Agriculture Total Source: MONRE, Vietnam Second National Communication. The National Communications also explored mitigation options. In the Initial National communication (NC1), 18 mitigation options including 9 options for energy sector (Table 3), 6 options for forestry sector and 3 options for agricultural sectors were developed and evaluated. In energy sector, the mitigation options were evaluated through EFOM-EVN; meanwhile in forestry sector, the mitigation options were evaluated through COMCAP model. The mitigation options in agricultural sector were evaluated by statistical method. 8 P a g e

9 Table 3: GHG mitigation and cost identified in the Initial National Communication Options Abbrevation Mitigation Mitigation cost potential (million (US $/tco2) tco2e) Water management A Developing solar energy E Food processing for animal A Developing geothermal power E wind power stations E Replacing coal boilers fired in industry E Utilization of biogas A Short rotation reforestation F Long rotation reforestation F Planting of protective, specialized forest F Scattered trees planting F Combination of forest nursig and delineation for regeneration F Protection of forest F Replacing oil boilers fired in industry E Improved coal cooking stoves E Lean burn engine in transportation E Improving efficiency of industrial motors E Replacing incandescent light bulbs by CFL lamps E Total Source: MONRE, Vietnam Initial National Communication The cumulative GHG mitigation potentials of the 18 mitigation options are 3,464 million tons CO 2 equivalent during the period from 1994 to Potential is highest in forestry sector. The NC2 examined mitigation options and constructed Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC). 28 mitigation options for GHG sources and Sinks were assessed. Of these 28 options, 15 are in the energy sector (including transportation), and 5 are in agriculture and 8 are in LULUCF. The LEAP model was used for energy and COMAP applied for LULUCF. In agriculture, mitigation options were assessed using statistical methods. The aggregated potential GHG mitigation of all 28 options in three sectors is 3,270.7 million tons of CO2e, to which energy contributes million tons, agriculture 56.5 million tons and LULUCF 3,022 million tons GHG abatement and sink enhancement costs vary greatly. These vary between US$-24.9 and US$23.8/tCO2 for energy, between US$-10.9 and US$9.7/tCO2 for agriculture and between US$0.4 and US$1.4/tCO2 in LULUCF. Out of the 28 options, 11 have negative costs for reducing GHG emissions. 9 P a g e

10 Table 4: GHG mitigation and cost identified in the Second National Communication Source: MONRE, Vietnam Second National Communication Based on the GHG projection and mitigation option evaluation, GHG mitigation orientations in those sectors were developed. For the energy sector, the development orientations include study and 10 P a g e

11 application of new environmentally sound technologies in energy exploitation, energy production and energy use, application of new technologies through CDM projects. As was reported by the NC2, as of October 2010, Vietnam has had 34 CDM projects registered by the EB, generating total GHG emission reductions of 17.5 million tco2e. Vietnam currently ranks 11th globally in registered CDM project quantity and 8th in issued Certified Emission Reduction (CERs) amount. 3. Legal documents governing GHG mission reductions Legal documents governing GHG emission reduction include: the Vietnam Green Growth Strategy; the Study on GHG management, management of business activities on certified emission reduction; and the study on GHG reduction in agriculture and rural area till 2020; The Vietnam Green Growth Strategy (VGGS). The VGGS is driven by several national policies and Vietnam s awareness of, and contributions to, international efforts to respond to climate change. It was approved by the Prime Minister via Decision 1393/QD-TTg dated 25 September As part of the VGGS, Vietnam has established a series of greenhouse gas emission reduction and related targets based on studies of sectors with high emissions, such as the energy, forestry and agriculture sectors. Year Targets 2020 Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita doubled compared to 2010 Establish modern economic structures Reduce greenhouse gas emission per GDP by 8 to 10% compared to 2010 Reduce energy consumption per GDP by 1.5 to 2 percent per year Reduce greenhouse gas emissions from energy activities by 10 percent to 20 percent compared to the business as usual case. This commitment includes a voluntary reduction of approximately 10 percent, and an additional 10 percent reduction with additional international support Reduce total greenhouse gas emissions at least 1.5 percent to 2 percent per year Reduce greenhouse gas emissions from energy activities by 20 percent to 30 percent compared to the business as usual case. This commitment includes a voluntary reduction of approximately 20 percent, and an additional 10 percent reduction with additional international support. Environmental degradation addressed and natural capital improved while improved basic standards for clean and green technology established 2050 Green economic development is mainstreamed 11 P a g e

12 Figure 1: Emission reduction scenarios by VGGS Study on Management Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Management of Business of Carbon Credits (thereafter referred to as GHG trade). This study was approved by the Prime Minister under Decision 1755/QD-TTg dated 21 November It has the following main objectives: Management of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for the implementation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the international treaties to which Vietnam is a party and take advantage of opportunities to develop the economy- low carbon, green growth and the international community in efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, contributing to the sustainable development goals of the country. Manage the business of carbon credits to global markets to manage, monitor the effectiveness of trading activity, transferring carbon credits generated from internal and external mechanisms Resolution Kyoto Protocol to the world market. The GHG reduction targets by 2020 against the base year 2005 were established by sectors as follows: Energy and transport sector: 8% Agriculture: 20% Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry: 20% Waste: 5% 12 P a g e

13 The study on GHG reduction in agriculture and rural area till 2020 (thereafter referred to as GHG Agri) is approved by an inter-ministerial decision 3119 dated 16 December The reduction target is to reduce 20% GHG emission by 2020 equivalent to 1391 million tons, specifically for its subsectors as follows: Cultivation: 5.72 million ton (10.03%) Animal husbandry: 6.3 million tons (25.84%) Forestry: 1371 million tons Aquiculture: 3 million tons (23.32%) Irrigation: 0.17 million tons (20%) Rural area and rural employment: 4.78 million tons (24.7%) Summary of GHG reduction targets by those legal documents are given below Table 5: Summary on GHG reduction targets Governing documents Reduction target by 2020 Notes Overall By sectors target Energy Agri. LULUCF Waste Vietnam Green Growth 8-10% 10% Reduction against BAU path Strategy Overall target is set in terms of GHG emission to GDP Study on Management of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Management of Business of Carbon Credits The study on GHG Reduction in Agriculture and Rural Area 8% 20% 20% 5% Reduction against 2005 level 16% Reduction against BAU path Estimated using the given percentage and the absolute figure 4. Assessment of the emission reduction targets Methodology for assessment of the emission reduction targets is presented below. Essentially, the study will examine the reduction targets by their three stages of implementation: (i) target setting; (ii) implementation organization, and (iii) impact evaluation i.e.., actual outcomes of the policy versus expected. For the stage of target setting, the following aspects are looked at: Baseline development Intervention measures Enforceability For the stage of policy implementation, important aspects are: Coordination between units and organizations involved in the implementation 13 P a g e

14 Portfolio of actions to achieve the targets Resources for the implementation: staffing, tools, financial resources For the stage of impact assessment, important aspects are: Monitoring system in place Measurable implementation progress Figure 2: Policy implementation cycle Detailed assessments for each stage proceed below. For each stage, a number of aspects will be investigated and these will constitute the overall assessment result for the stage and the overall cycle. 4.1 Assessment by stage: target setting Foundation for setting the GHG reduction target is the GHG inventories and Business As Usual Emission (BAU) Path. The GHG inventory should be as detailed as possible with high certainty so that low emission options which constitute the low carbon path could be identified. Similarly, the BAU path has to be based on realistic socio-economic foundations. GHG inventory: A number of GHG inventories have been conducted as presented in section 2. However, these are quite broad and are associated with high uncertainty. A focal agency responsible for the national inventory s data collection, analysis, verification and update has not been established or designated. No archiving system been has developed and used. There is no a QA/QC system in place either. 14 P a g e

15 Development of BAU path: NC2 developed the BAU path for the period of The VGGS developed the BAU path for the period with 2010 as the base year and the Study on GHG Reduction in Agriculture and Rural Area by 2020 construct a BAU path until However, it appears that the Study on Management of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Management of Business of Carbon Credits has not developed a BAU path. The emission targets are set against the 2005 emission level. Thus, there are many BAUs which are overlapping in time but inconsistent in the paths. Assessment of low carbon options: Low carbon options were examined in the NC1 and NC2. They were also examined in the VGGS, and were thought to be also examined in the other studies (GHG trade and GHG agri.) The options were identified using popular tools such as LEAP for energy and COMAP for LULUCF. For each option, volume of emission abatement potential and abatement cost were determined which together build the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC). An example of MACC is presented in Figure 3. Figure 3: An example of MACC for energy sector developed in the NC2 Low carbon scenario is built on the MACC. This is a standard approach. However, from table 5 that summarizes GHG emission targets by legal documents, it looks like that there is not a consensus on the targets. Especially, the Study on Management Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Management of Business of Carbon Credits sets absolute targets against the 2005 level which is probably a mistake. As a developing country, Vietnam is not an Annex I country, and is not required to cut absolute GHG emission by Kyoto protocol. The reduction target set by Study on Management of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Management of Business of Carbon Credits does not match with the Study on GHG Reduction in Agriculture and Rural Area (20% versus 16%). GHG inventory and BAU path developed by designated agencies?: The MPI is the lead on VGGS while the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) is the coordinating agency on 15 P a g e

16 GHG trade. By regulation, MONRE is the national focal point responsible for implementing the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol and has a responsibility to coordinate the activities of all ministries, sectors and provinces in managing and implementing the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change (NTP-RCC). Both documents set reduction targets which are inconsistent however both were approved by the Prime Minister in the forms of decisions and thus have high enforceability. Such a situation causes confused, influencing resources allocation. There appears to be a lack of coordination between these two ministries in the GHG mitigation policies. Assessment of impact from implementation of GHG targets on national development: this step is part of the target setting process. It is reported however that so far only VGGS has such kind of assessment. However, it is just being undertaken by the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), under Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) whose objective is to examine the impact from implementation of VGGS to the socio-economic development. So this study is behind the VGGS in terms of time, and has not been integrated as part of target settings. 4.2 Assessment by stage: Implementation organization Portfolio of actions to achieve goals: o o Implementation solutions were proposed in the VGGS. These include awareness raising and actions in key sectors/areas including (i) Improving effectiveness and efficiency of energy use, reduce energy consumption in production activities, transportation and trade; (ii) Changing the fuel structure in industry and transportation; (iii) Promote effective exploitation and increase the proportion of new and renewable energy sources in the nation s energy production and consumption; (iv) Reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the development of sustainable organic agriculture, improved competitiveness of agricultural production; (v) Review and adjust master plans for the production sectors and gradually limit the development of economic sectors that generate large amount of waste, significant environmental pollution and degradation of natural resources, while creating favorable conditions for the development of new green production sectors; (vi) Economic and efficient utilization of natural resources; (vii) Promote fast development of green economic sectors to create jobs, increase income and enrich natural capital; (viii) Development of key sustainable infrastructure including: transportation, energy, irrigation and urban works; (ix) Promote technological innovation and wide application of cleaner production. These solutions are quite general as part of a strategy, usually interpreted as orientations. The flow of legal document is usually first strategy is developed, followed by plan or planning, then program or project with detailed level to be increased accordingly. As a process, the MPI is developing the action plan with several consultation workshops. As for institutional arrangement, a steering committee was formed to guide the implementation. MPI is nominated as the focal agency coordinating the implementation. The Study on Management Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Management of Business of Carbon Credits is approved along with activities to achieve GHG reduction goals, to be listed by sector. However, similar to the VGGS, the activities are quite general. For example for the energy sector, the actions that are listed are promotion of energy 16 P a g e

17 efficiency and conservation; switching of fossil fuels; and development of new and renewable energies. o GHG mitigation measures are described in quite detail in the Study on GHG Reduction in Agriculture and Rural Area. For example, under cultivation category, the application of advanced cultivation methods to save irrigation water and other inputs are planned for 3.2 million ha in the rice designated regions (Red River Delta, North Central Delta and Mekong River Delta) to achieve a reduction of 4.18 million tons CO2eq (equivalent to 7.33% of the total emission from cultivation by Prioritized near term actions: These above activities come with specific timeline, in fact for every 5 or 10 year period. It has been found in those documents that in the first period, the tasks are usually for detailed planning, awareness raising and development/perfection of legal framework. Subsequent periods are actual implementation of the policy, monitoring, verification and review works done so as to develop plan for the next phases. Coordination between units and organizations involved in the implementation: Although there is a clear allocation of tasks and responsibilities amongst related ministries and agencies in those documents, their actual involvement could be more clearly seen in the planning stage and more profoundly in the circular which guides the implementation. However, there are not yet followup documents. Nonetheless, looking at this aspect from the reduction targets which are different by documents, it looks like that there has not been a good coordination amongst agencies. The core issue is there is not yet a focal agency responsible for the national inventory s data collection, analysis, verification and update. No archiving system been has developed and used. So every time a GHG related tasks are arisen, a team of experts are formed. The point is the invited experts are not identical by projects and who can bring along with them a different dataset and approach to overcome data deficiency. For example, for the development of the MACC curve which was built as part of the process of VGGS development, a team consisting of international experts and local experts was built. Resources for the implementation: The questions raised are: o o Do the relevant agencies and stakeholders have technical capacity to implement these portfolios of actions? Do the relevant agencies and stakeholders have the resources (other than staff technical capacity) to implement the portfolio of actions? [e.g., funding, staff time, office space?] As for the first question, the answer is no. For GHG inventory alone, it has been reported that there is inadequate pool of greenhouse gas inventory technical experts in the ministries and agencies. However, Vietnam is receiving technical assistance from international communities in this front. For example, recently, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (VIMHE) organized a training course on counting greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories in Hanoi. The content of the training included guidance in using systems of data managing, storing and reporting tools designed for experts on GHG counting, counting tools in accordance with the Kyoto 17 P a g e

18 Protocol, as well as access to counting models (VOVVN, 2013). The Low Emission Asian Development Program (LEAD) funded by USAID has a component on GHG inventories and accounting. LEAD provides training developing and managing national and corporate level GHG inventory systems and emission calculation. Its training center based at Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) is anticipated to be open soon. As for the second question, the mentioned documents all specified resources including funding, staff and office in the implementation organization. However, these are quite general. Regarding financing for example the descriptions are put as to give priority or issue mechanism or to incentivize investment etc. The general understanding is that budget is just the entry point, market based mechanisms should be developed to generate financing for example NAMA development and cap and trade system. 4.3 Assessment by stage: Monitoring and Evaluation Monitoring system in place: The country has not developed a monitoring system to measure emissions reduced due to the portfolio of actions. And as said there is not yet a QC and QA protocol in place. Measurable implementation progress: The country does not have an accounting protocol to measure implementation progress. Evaluation of implementation progress: Evaluation of implementation progress has not been conducted. However, as for renewable energy development which is easier to measure, the achievement so far has been modest. For example, for wind the objective by 2020 is 1000 MW but at the end of 2013 the installed capacity was just 46 MW. Unattractive power purchasing price is considered the cause, which in turn is caused subsidized electricity tariff. 5. What did experts say about these emission reduction targets? As part of the process, the implementation team has consulted experts those are involving in the GHG inventory for their view on the enforceability and feasibility of GHG emission targets governed by the above mentioned legal documents. The consultation with experts took place from 7 January to 28 February The experts for consultation - details provided in the table 1 below were selected carefully based on prior surveys. Column three in the table describes their involvement in GHG to provide the rationale for the selection. 18 P a g e

19 Table 6: List of experts for consultation on binding enforceability & feasibility of GHG emission reduction targets Organization Individuals Involvement in GHG Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment (INSPONRE) Dr. Nguyen Tung Lam Head of Integrated Research Division Vietnam Environment Administration Dr. Do Nam Thang, Deputy Director, Institute of Science of Environmental Management Institute for agricultural Environment Dr. Mai Van Trinh Deputy Director General Institute of Energy Mr. Nguyen Duc Cuong, Director Centre for Renewable energy and CDM RCEE-NIRAS Mr. Ha Dang Son Technical Director Private sector Dr. Ngo Duc Lam Independent Expert INSPONRE is advisory unit of MONRE for legislation, policy and strategy development. Amongst various topics that INSPONRE have been doing, GHG inventory and projection is a key subject. Dr. Lam is a senior expert in that field. One of his reports was presented in the consultation workshop organized by the institute of energy on GHG inventory and management from the coal fired power plants. Dr. Thang is a recognized expert in environment. He recently finished a study which discussed the cobenefits of GHG mitigation options. Dr. Trinh was a team member for the drafting of the Vietnam National Green Growth Strategy and now for JICA project which conducts GHG inventories for 2005 and In those works, he serves as an expert on GHG inventory for agriculture. Institute of Energy is an independent accounting unit under the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which specializes in doing researches in energy sector. IE is the office of about 230 staffs distributed in 13 departments and 4 centers. The Research Center for Renewable Energy and CDM is doing researches on renewable energy and providing consultancy for CDM projects. Mr. Cuong was in the team that developed the emission factor for the power sector which was then adopted by MONRE as national factor for CDM project. He was also involved in the preparation of the Second National Communication to UNFCCC and the Vietnam Green Growth Strategy. RCEE-NIRAS is a Danish Vietnamese consulting company, providing consulting services within energy, climate and environment. Mr. Son is a well-known expert in energy efficiency and climate change. He is currently deputy team leader of the ADB funded project entitled Supporting National Target Program to respond to Climate Change for the Energy and Transport Sectors. The main objective of this Technical Assistance Project is to support the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) to develop a green growth energy and emission scenario. The project is expected to be completed mid Dr. Lam is a senior energy expert. He took part in a number of studies and projects relating to climate change, particularly those relating mitigation 19 P a g e

20 The following issues were discussed: The consistency, enforceability of these legal documents setting the GHG emission reduction targets Their feasibility Key barriers (if any) to the achievement of these reduction targets The consultation began with a brief introduction of study and obviously purpose of consultation conduction was given. The following provides a summary of main results of the consultation. The notes of meeting are provided in the annex. a. The consistency, enforceability of the legal documents governing GHG emission reductions There are some levels of consistency amongst these legal documents in terms of GHG reduction targets. In fact, they (developer of the document) had consulted relevant organizations, including those that developed sectoral GHG reduction target in the process of developing the targets. One observation is that the targets by new documents are more prudent (less ambitious) than those set in the previous documents thus reflecting their thoughtful consideration. In terms of enforceability, although both the study by MONRE and VGGS by MPI are approved by the Prime Minister, the VGGS is considered more important and binding. The VGGS implementation is enforced by an action plan which is being finalized and will be approved by the Prime Minister. b. Their feasibility Amongst three legal documents, the VGGS is evaluated by interviewees as more realistic and comprehensive in terms of GHG reduction target than the others. It attaches environment protection economic development however the targets are modest. Dr. Lam from INSPONRE thinks the target is the feasible, even under the current situation without putting it under a strategy on green growth development. Mr. Cuong from IE shared that these targets were based on mitigation options which have marginal abatement cost less than 3$/ton. The targets by MONRE are less realistic which are described by some interviewees as reduction potential rather than reduction goals. One interviewee thinks the study by the MONRE should be interpreted as a management document of an agency in charge of environment rather a realistic and binding goal. As regards the target by MARD, many interviewees (4 out of 6 interviewees) described it as unrealistic and infeasible which in their belief just reflect the leaders wish. However, there is an opinion that targets prepared by the sector themselves should be realistic as these are their responsibilities. 20 P a g e

21 c. Key barriers to the achievement of these reduction targets Although the targets by VGGS are evaluated as more realistic, breakthrough solutions are needed if these targets are to be achieved. For example in the case of GHG reduction target in the power sector, the Power Development Plan 7 was one of the foundations and it has been shown now that the PDP 7 is unrealistic. The demand has been proven to be over predicted whereas renewable energy development target is now seen as hard to achieve. Dr. Trinh from MARD think the feasibility of mitigation option and thus the overall reduction target depends on the nature of the option. Obviously, no-cost and low-cost options would be easier to implement. For other options, beside financial issue, pilot implementation is needed to drawn experience and to adapt it to other areas. 6. Conclusions and recommendations This study evaluates the feasibility of GHG reduction scenarios. For this purpose, three stages of implementation of these scenarios were examined: (i) target setting; (ii) implementation organization, and (iii) impact evaluation. Further, the implementation team consulted experts in the field to get their opinions. Based on the results, several broad conclusions regarding these targets could be drawn: Several reduction targets exist and these do not really match with each other. Foundations for these reduction targets are generally weak, indicated by high uncertainty of GHG inventories and different BAUs existed for the same time period. The targets are governed by the Prime Minister s decisions which have high enforceability thus causing confused as to which target to follow. No assessment of impact from implementation of GHG targets on national development as part of the target development has been made. Portfolio of actions to achieve the goals exist however are quite broad. By hierarchy of legal documents, these would be in details described in program or plan and in more details in circular guiding the implementation. Relevant agencies and stakeholders have insufficient technical capacity to implement the portfolio of actions. Financing to implementing these actions poses critical issue, influencing greatly the feasibility of the implementation. Although national budget is considered as entry point it appears that there is not yet a budget line for this item. In terms of monitoring and evaluation of progress, there has not been a monitoring system in place to measure and verify implementation progress. Energy is the key section for mitigation options however the achievement so far is quite modest, posing higher challenges to later years. 21 P a g e

22 Recommendations Being a developing country, Vietnam is not required to cut absolute GHG emission by Kyoto protocol. Thus, mitigation policies should be developed with consideration of the capability of the country in its stage of development. This requires a comprehensive national study, besides the NC2. This should begin with detailed and reliable assessment of existing technology by sector and the corresponding GHG emission whereas mitigation options are those which should not hinder socio-economic development. The comprehensive approach to identify these mitigation options are through assessing their co-benefits i.e., benefits gained as a result from the implementation of the option. To this end, a number of emission factors must be localized. Likewise, a MRV system must be established to monitor and verify implementation progress. Besides, GHG mitigation commitment at suitable level would draw attention of international communities, bringing about their technical assistance and financial support. Taking advantage of mechanisms governed by the Kyoto Protocol which has been prolonged in principal now and other voluntary and bilateral mechanisms on GHG mitigations would be feasible when there is certain commitment on GHG mitigation. With the development orientations towards modernization and urbanization as specified by the socio-economic development strategy , priority will be given industrialization, selection of high technologies, energy efficiency and development of new and renewable energy sources to meet this development strategy. In this regard, the selection of technology should be paid with great attention, in particular in term of energy consumption and therefore GHG emission level. At the present, the energy efficiency is low due to backward technologies and improper energy management The commitment of GHG reduction would encourage investment in the related areas (for example renewable energy development), thus lessening burden on national budget. From this perspective, policies to support this kind of investment and to ensure these investment capital are well paid should be in place. The prioritized investment in industrial development and energy would bring about reduction in the amount of harmful solid waste and waste water discharge. This together with financial measures (e.g., environment tax or fee) and awareness raising programs will gradually change consumption habit of the communities and industries contributing to establishment of a sustainable society. Another needy activity is to enhance capacity for central government organizations in planning and designing programs; capacity building is also in bad need in provincial departments and agencies for identifying prioritized areas for GHG emission reduction to be able to set the target and to mainstream the target in socio-economic development of the province. Information and experience exchange in GHG emission efforts (both achievements and failures) between ministries, in particular between provinces should be enhanced to save resources. Additionally, active participation in regional exchange forums for example Asia LEDS Partnership ( would open the door for Vietnam to learn experience from other countries both good and bad experiences so as to accomplish its commitment successfully. 22 P a g e

23 References MONRE (Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment), Vietnam Initial National Communication. MONRE (Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment), Vietnam Second National Communication. PM (Prime Minister), 2011c. Decree No 2139/2011/QD-TTg of 5/12/2011 on approving the National Strategy of climate change. UNV (United Nation Vietnam), Climate Change Factsheets. PM (Prime Minister), Decision 2139/QD-TTg dated 5 December 2011 approving national strategy on climate change response. PM (Prime Minister), Decision 1393/QD-TTg dated 25 September 2012 approving the Vietnam Green Growth Strategy (VGGS). PM (Prime Minister), Decision 1755/QD-TTg dated 21 November 2011 approving the study on Management Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Management of Business of Carbon Credits. UNVN (United Nations Vietnam), Climate change fact sheet: Greenhouse gas emissions and options for mitigations in Vietnam, and the UN s responses. USAID (US Agency for International Development), USAID Lower Emission Asian Development (LEAD) Program. Current Challenges and Priorities for Greenhouse Gas Emission Factor Improvement in Select Asian Countries. VOVVN, P a g e

24 Annex Notes of Meetings Organization Individuals Date of meeting Order of appearance in the annex Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment (INSPONRE) Dr. Nguyen Tung Lam Head of Integrated Research Division Vietnam Environment Administration Dr. Do Nam Thang, Deputy Director, Institute of Science of Environmental Management Institute for agricultural Environment Dr. Mai Van Trinh Deputy Director General Institute of Energy Mr. Nguyen Duc Cuong, Director Centre for Renewable energy and CDM 26 February, February, February, January, RCEE-NIRAS Mr. Ha Dang Son Technical Director Private sector Dr. Ngo Duc Lam Independent Expert 7 January, February, P a g e

25 1. Notes of Meeting with Mr. Ha Dang Son Date of interview 11:00-11:30, 7 January, 2014 Name of individual met Ha Dang Son, Technical Director, RCEE-NIRAS Tel: (+84) (0) son.ha@rcee.org.vn Purposes of the meeting Consulting on binding enforceability & feasibility of GHG emission reduction targets governed by the following legal documents: The Vietnam Green Growth Strategy (VGGS) approved by the Prime Minister via Decision 1393/QD-TTg dated 25 September Study on Management Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Management of Business of Carbon Credits approved by the Prime Minister under Decision 1755/QD-TTg dated 21 November The study on GHG reduction in agriculture and rural area till 2020 approved by an inter-ministerial decision 3119 dated 16 December Key discussion points The target by the MARD expresses the leaders wish which is unrealistic. This 20% reduction target by the top-down approach is then allocated to sub-sectors. There is a big uncertainty with regards to the implementation of this target as a large GHG emission reduction amount is expected to come from increasing afforestration. Additionally, the base line against this, the reduction target was set was higher than that applied for CDM projects thus is inconsistent. Meanwhile, GHG reduction targets by the Vietnam Green Growth Strategy are irrelevant as they were based on the Power Development Plan 7 whose demand projection has been proven to be over-projected. On the other hand, considering nuclear as mitigation option would not be relevant as there is still debate on it internationally. Targets by MONRE which are set against the 2005 level are therefore unrealistic. 25 P a g e

26 2. Notes of Meeting with Mr. Nguyen Duc Cuong Date of interview 11:30-12:00, 7 January, 2014 Name of individual met Nguyen Duc Cuong, Director, Research Center for Renewable Energy and CDM, Institute of Energy Tel: +84 (0) cuongnd.re@gmail.com Purposes of the meeting Consulting on binding enforceability & feasibility of GHG emission reduction targets governed by the following legal documents: The Vietnam Green Growth Strategy (VGGS) approved by the Prime Minister via Decision 1393/QD-TTg dated 25 September Study on Management Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Management of Business of Carbon Credits approved by the Prime Minister under Decision 1755/QD-TTg dated 21 November The study on GHG reduction in agriculture and rural area till 2020 approved by an inter-ministerial decision 3119 dated 16 December Key discussion points Targets by MARD is unrealistic and infeasible Targets by the Vietnam Green Growth Strategy: These are realistic. In fact, these targets were based on mitigation options which have marginal abatement cost less than 3$/ton In setting the target, 2010 was selected as the base year and only policies that are issued after 2010 were considered in setting reduction target These targets are actually lower than those of Indonesia which was prepared by Mc Kinsey at 40% by It has been discussed that these targets will be allocated to provinces by 2015 based on the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve developed for each province. Provinces are expected to make reports on annual GHG reduction implementation and these will be incorporated in the provincial statistical yearbook. These sharing burdens once approved will be binding, expectedly in Compared with the targets by MONRE, the targets by VGGS are more realistic as they were developed over a long time with supports from international 26 P a g e