Salt River Project Water Resource Management

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Martin Gibson
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1 Salt River Project Water Resource Management

of 1902 Salt River Project Agricultural Improvement and Power District Established in 1937 Political

2 Salt River Project Structure President Theodore Roosevelt Salt River Valley Water Users Association Established in 1903 Private Corporation One of the first reclamation projects under the Reclamation Act of 1902 Salt River Project Agricultural Improvement and Power District Established in 1937 Political Subdivision of the State of Arizona Allowed for the growth of power generation and service Crosscut Diesel Plant, 1938

3 SRP manages seven reservoirs on the Salt (4) and Verde (2) rivers in Arizona for a 13,000 sq. mile watershed (plus 1 on East Clear ), operates canals and groundwater wells in the 250,000 acre service area, and currently delivers nearly 800,000 acre-feet of water per year. Big Chino Wash Granite Hell Canyon Prescott Williams Agua Fria River New River Salt Sycamore Verde Oak Camp Verde Dry Beaver Tangle Wet Beaver W. Clear River SRV Phoenix WUA Gila River Sedona River VERDE RIVER WATERSHED Flagstaff Wet Bottom Sycamore E. Verde River Rye Payson Slate Tonto Sycamore EAST CLEAR CREEK WATERSHED E. Clear Greenback Salome Spring Haigler Pinto Cherry Pinal Canyon Cibecue Globe Carrizo Show Low Corduroy White River N. Fork White River SALT RIVER WATERSHED E. Fork White River Big Bonito Black Black River W. Fork River Fish Black River E. Fork Beaver Verde River Watershed SRVWUA Alpine KEY MAP E. Clear Watershed Salt River Watershed Salt and Verde Watersheds

4 SRP Reservoir System Capacity in Acre-Feet Horseshoe Dam 2026 Horseshoe 109,217 AF VERDE TOTAL SRP STORAGE: 287,403 AF Bartlett Dam 1798 Bartlett 178,186 AF Mormon Flat Dam SALT TOTAL SRP STORAGE: 2,004,287 AF Horse Mesa Dam 1914 Roosevelt Dam 2151 Apache Lake 245,138 AF Roosevelt Lake 1,631,532 AF 2218 EAST CLEAR CREEK TOTAL SRP STORAGE: 15,000 AF Stewart Mountain Dam 1529 Canyon Lake 57,852 AF C.C. Cragin Dam 6720 C.C. Cragin 15,000 AF Saguaro Lake 69,765 AF Total Reservoir Storage: 2,306,690 AF

5 SRP Water Delivery System NAUSP GRUSP

6 Creating Dependability from Variability

7 Water Resource Planning in the 1980s and 1990s Planning Assumptions 950,000 AF Full Demand 325,000 AF Maximum Pumping Historical Drought Of Record Allocation/Pumping To Manage For Drought Of Record Allocation Setting Process Used to Manage Demand

8 Water Resource Planning in the 1980s and 1990s

9 Water Resource Planning in the 2000s % Average Drought of Record 7 Years % 7 Years % 5 Years % 4 Years % s??% Year

other reconstructed flow from 1330 to 2005 was lower than 25% of normal.

10 What Can Tree-Ring Analysis Tell Us About Pre-20th Century Droughts? 1996 and 2002: Long-term Extreme Lows Reconstructed flow was 21% of normal* in 2002, 22% of normal in 1996 No other reconstructed flow from 1330 to 2005 was lower than 25% of normal. Tree growth recovered with wetter conditions in 2005 Flow (pct of normal) Reconstructed annual flows, SVT 2002 baseline Year

11 How Vulnerable Are We? What is minimum annual inflow that allows SRP to maintain carryover storage in perpetuity? (i.e., the reservoir system does not dry up) Examined: Historical, instrument-era record (110 years) Tree-ring record (1,000 years) % Average Drought of Record 7 Years % 7 Years % 5 Years % 4 Years % s??% Tree Ring 11-year Drought of Record Year

12 Water Resource Planning in the 2000s Planning Assumptions SRP Storage, Pumping & Water Allotment Planning 900,000 AF -- full demand 2200 Ground Water Production (KAF) 325,000 AF -- maximum pumping (start earlier) Tree-ring drought of record, Use revised allocation and pumping plan to manage for the 11-year tree-ring drought Demand mostly urban Reservoir Storage (KAF) Median Inflow 11-year Tree Ring Drought 3.0 AF/AC 2.0 AF/AC Sep-05 May-05 Jan-05 Sep-04 May-04 Jan-04 Sep-03 May-03 Jan-03 Sep-02 May-02 Jan-02 Sep-01 May-01 Jan-06 Jan-07 Sep-06 May-06 Year May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep

13 Water Resources Planning Environment Inflow Variability (Climate Variability) Sedimentation Changing Demand and Customer

14 Water Resource Planning Environment % Average Years % 7 Years % 5 Years % Longer Period Of Sustained Drought 4 Years % 23 + Years ???% Reservoir Planning Model (RPM) Developed by HydroLogics Climate Analysis and Uncertainties Streamflow Forecasting Year

15 Streamflow Projection System Health

16 RPM Inflow Local (ungauged inflow) Reservoir Operations Deliveries Groundwater Reservoir/River Losses

17 Running the RPM Monthly time-step Can run through GUI Batch run SRP Python script used to batch inflows into dss Hydrologics executable for batch run 64 runs takes less than 10 minutes

18 RPM Output Detailed output for storage, demands, deliveries, exchanges, losses, spills, etc. Variety of standard reports and graphs Ad hoc reports and graphs Calculates various statistics about output data

19 Examples of RPM Output

20 Purpose of the RPM Current and future shortages Average surface water supply Future groundwater supply Effect of physical changes to reservoirs (i.e. increased conservation storage) Effects of operational changes to reservoirs Changes in demands Changes in exchanges and transfers Sedimentation effects

21 Challenges With Uncertainties Vano et al. (2014, BAMS)

22 Challenges With Uncertainties Mearns et al. (2009, Eos Transactions)

23 Challenges With Uncertainties

24 Challenges With Uncertainties

25 Challenges With Uncertainties

26 Challenges With Uncertainties

27 Questions?

SRP Watersheds and Forest Restoration

SRP Watersheds and Forest Restoration Presentation to Bruce Hallin Director Water Rights and Contracts February 19, 2016 SRP Total Electric Resource Mix Salt River Project Agricultural Improvement and