GEOTHERMAL ENERGY IN EUROPE AND THE REST OF THE WORLD GEOTERMIKONFERENCE PÅ CHRISTIANSBORG ALEXANDER RICHTER THINKGEOENERGY 19 FEBRUARY 2018

Transcription

1 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY IN EUROPE AND THE REST OF THE WORLD GEOTERMIKONFERENCE PÅ CHRISTIANSBORG ALEXANDER RICHTER THINKGEOENERGY 19 FEBRUARY 2018

2 TOP 10 GEOTHERMAL COUNTRIES INSTALLED CAPACITY - MW (FEBRUARY 2018) 14,060 MW IN TOTAL United States Philippines Indonesia Turkey New Zealand Mexico Italy Iceland Kenya Japan Other 1, ,868 1,809 3,591 1 GW Country Club Source: TGE Research (2017), GEA (2016), IGA (2015), JESDER (2017) Enerji Atlasi (2017)

3 TOP 10 GEOTHERMAL COUNTRIES INSTALLED CAPACITY & PROJECTS - MW (February 2018) Indonesia 1,809 3,958 United States 3,591 1,248 Philippines 1,868 1,651 Turkey 1, GW Country Club Kenya 676 1,037 Mexico New Zealand Iceland Italy Projects & permitted Ethiopia Future members Other 1,423 2, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Source: ThinkGeoEnergy Research (2017), GEA (2016), IGA (2015)

4 GEOTHERMAL COUNTRIES INSTALLED CAPACITY - MW (FEBRUARY 2018) United States Philippines Indonesia Turkey New Zealand Mexico Italy Iceland Kenya Japan Costa Rica El Salvador Nicaragua Russia Papua New Chile Guatemala Germany Portugal China Guadeloupe Ethiopia Hungary France Australia Austria , ,868 1, Source: TGE Research (2017), GEA (2016), IGA (2015), Enerji Atlasi (2017) 3,591

5 TOP 10 GEOTHERMAL COUNTRIES BY PROJECTS UNDER DEVELOPMENT - MW (JANUARY 2018) Indonesia Philippines United States Kenya Ethiopia Turkey Iceland Mexico New Zealand Guatemala Other 1,651 1,248 1, ,712 3, ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Source: TGE Research (2017), GEA (2016), IGA (2015), JESDER (2017) Enerji Atlasi (2017)

6 GEOTHERMAL REGIONAL MARKETS INSTALLED CAPACITY & PROJECTS - MWe (OCTOBER 2017) Asia 4,241 5,836 North America 4,493 1,858 Europe 1,823 1,337 Africa 684 2,234 Middle East Aus., NZ & Pacific 1,020 1,139 1, Projects & permitted Cent. America & Caribbean South America ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Source: ThinkGeoEnergy Research (2017), GEA (2016), IGA (2015)

7 GLOBAL GEOTHERMAL POTENTIAL POWER GENERATION POTENTIAL (MWe) 32,200 4,496 Resources North America 577 High temperature regions Current installed capacity 6,423 27, Resources Cent. America & Caribbean Projects & inferred resources Hydrothermal resource estimates 48 30, Resources South America 1,826 Europe 3,400 1,271 Resources 1, Middle East Africa 2, Resources 11,600 2,249 Resources 4,241 70,900 5,836 Resources Asia 1,037 7,700 Resources Aus., NZ & Pacific Sources: ThinkGeoEnergy, Geothermal Energy Association, IGA, Chevron Note: Capacity of 2017 [2015], resource estimates combined ( ) IGA estimates a conservative total potential of 70,000 MW and with technology improvements (extended use of low heat and EGS resources) at around 140,000 MW in power generation capacity. 666

8 TURKEY GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT INSTALLED POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ,000 1,800 1, ,400 1, ,000 1, Source: JESDER (2018), Enerji Atlasi (2018), TGE Research (2018)

9 GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT INDONESIA VS. TURKEY INSTALLED CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY YEAR (MW) + PLANNED , ,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Indonesia Capacity added Planned capacity Average plant size: 49 MW Turkey Capacity added Planned capacity Average plant size: 19 MW Indonesia installed capacity 1,809 MW Turkey installed capacity 1,100 MW Sources: TGE Research (2018), Pertamina (2018), Ifnaldi Sikumbang (2017), JESDER (2018)

10 ENERGY DEMAND EUROPEAN UNION 2013 FINAL DEMAND BY SECTOR IN EUR28: 14,000 TWH 2013 Final Demand by Sector in EUR28 (%) Heating & Cooling - Commercial 9% Commercial - Other 4% Residential - Other 5% Transport 33% Heating & Cooling - Residential 20% Heating & Cooling - Industry 15% Feedstock 6% Industry - Other 8% HEATING DEMAND 44% Source: IHS Energy Multi-client Study Beyond the Flame: The Transformation of Europe s Heat Sector (2016)

11 CHINA THE $90 BILLION PUSH FOR SMOKE FREE CITIES

12 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY GLOBAL DIRECT USE 2015 (UTILIZATION IN % BASED ON TJ/ YEAR) Direct use utilization with heat pumps 2015 (TJ/ yr) Heat pumps 55.30% Greenhouse Heating 4.54% Space Heating 15.01% Industrial uses 1.78% Cooling/ snow melting 0.44% Bathing & Swimming, 20.31% Aquaculture 2.03% Agricultural drying 0.35% Others 0.25% Direct use utilization without heat pumps 2015 (TJ/ yr) Bathing & swimming 44.74% Greenhouse heating 8.96% Space heating 36.98% Industrial use 2.99% Agriculture drying 0.79% Aquaculture 3.40% Cooling/ snow melting 1.76% Others 0.39% Source: Lund, J. Direct Utilization of Geothermal Energy 2015 Worldwide Review (IGA, WGC 2015)

13 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY GLOBAL DIRECT USE CAPACITY MW THERMAL 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 Other direct use Heat pumps Estimates 27,000 60,000 20,431 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,359 68,000 49,898 12,885 33,124 9,870 6,810 15,384 1,845 5, (e) Source: Lund, J. Direct Utilization of Geothermal Energy 2015 Worldwide Review (IGA, WGC 2015)

14 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY EUROPEAN OVERVIEW European Capacity Geothermal Power & District Heating (2016 European Capacity Geothermal District Heating (2016 2,200 Source: EGEC Geothermal Market Report 2016 (2017)

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY GEOTHERMAL DISTRICT HEATING PLANTS IN OPERATION & PLANNED Source: EGEC Geothermal Market Report 2016 (2017)

16 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES Technical Resource Drilling Resource risks Equipment

17 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES Business, Finance Financial structures Risk mitigation (insurance) Development time Off-taker Structure of projects

18 THINKGEOENERGY LEADING IN NEWS AND RESEARCH ON GEOTHERMAL ENERGY Focus on power generation and direct use also internationally in Spanish (PiensaGeotermia.com) and in Turkish (JeotermalHaberler.com)

19 CONTACT THINKGEOENERGY REYKJAVIK/ ICELAND ALEXANDER RICHTER Subscribe to our Weekly Newsletter at: thinkgeoenergy.com/newsletter