RHI d out? Tentative programme. RHI - something DECC top person. RHI - something else Chair GSHPA. RHI - more something else Marketing man GSHPA

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2 RHI d out? Tentative programme RHI - something DECC top person RHI - something else Chair GSHPA RHI - more something else Marketing man GSHPA RHI pre-lunch slot give Robin something to waffle about

3 Reel handler?

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7 Why? Oil ~ 92 Sps / litre Electricity ~5 Sps / kwh (Sps = spondoolicks)

8 2014 AGM and Seminar How to sell GSHPs using the RHI Robin Curtis GeoScience Ltd Mount Bachelor, Oregon Building Centre London 10 th July 2014

9 2014 AGM and Seminar Onwards and upwards! (or downwards?) Robin Curtis GeoScience Ltd Mount Bachelor, Oregon Building Centre London 10 th July 2014

10 Inhibitor? or fiscal engineering?

11 We are where we are. RHI is probably as good as it s going to get. We now need to work with it to get this industry back on the rails in the UK.

12 You have had most if not all of the GSHP benefits already today...

13 It s a tough technology - there are easier ways to make a living. probably

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15 The EST study the intentions the unintended consequences

16 Inhibitor?

17 .but we know it delivers

18 Performance Results from a Properly Installed Domestic System in Truro

19 Don t bank on RHI - use it as a lever. eg experience from Clear Skies/ LCBP.

20 RHI may get you through the door - other UK Drivers?

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24 and it s Carbon Emissions that are the main problem

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27 The Hydrocarbon Age A fleeting epoch in history Production Anno Domini

28 Richard Heinberg Post Carbon Institute

29 + the Putin factor Energy efficiency and Energy security now all over the press

30 UK Drivers? 20/20/20 (well 15/20/20).. and beyond..

31 Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air Prof David MacKay GeoEner gy

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34 Cannot go on using valuable and increasingly expensive liquid and gaseous fuels to deliver low grade heat.

35 10.00 GW Electric GSHPs from Total installations Total GSHP installations Installed GSHP capacity Year 0 A possible/required growth pattern?

36 GeoScience Limited

37 CO 2 REDUCTION?..depends on carbon content of grid.

38 Decarbonising the grid if not we can all pack up now (currently 0.53 kg/kwhe - was 0.43 Coal coal coal!!)

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42 RHI will only get us up the start Imperative we get good systems in for the next step

43 Non domestic new build RHI? Really? - Large corporates - internal drivers CSR etc - eg Unilever, - and non-corporate eg NT. - Planning constraints - Large horizontals

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45 Non domestic eg National Trust. Plas Newyyd sea source others..

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47 Non domestic Large horizontal systems..

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49 Large horizontal systems.. MCS limitations VDI 4640 limitations Software limitations Hydraulics.

50 Non domestic Planning driven London.

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54 RHI Creativity? Load duration curves / bi valent systems

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56 Hourly dry bulb temperature - EnergyPlus climate tape for Gatwick Temperature ( C) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

57 Load - Duration curve for a worst day heat loss property of 10 kw (minimum outside temperature: -5.9 C, design temperature: -2.8 C (100% rule MCS)) kw ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Hours

58 Load duration chart 10kW GSHP kw Hours kwh % 99.9% % 99.4% % 98.1% % 95.4% % 90.6% % 83.1% % 72.2% % 58.0% % 40.7% % 21.0% GeoScience

59 Social housing RHI? GeoScience

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61 Social housing? RHI - innovative approaches communal systems. GeoScience

62 <1%..but remove Solar Thermal > 13%

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66 A VAST EUROPEAN RESOURCE 1km 3 of rock (cooling 20 C) 15,000 GWh (thermal) 1,275,000 tons of oil more than 10 MW(e) base load at 200 C for 20 years 12,500 km 2 (x 1km thick) of prime resource 900TWh / year European nuclear energy output (1995) T > 180 C at 5000m Available resource 125,000 km 2 in W.Europe with 200 C at ~5000m depth (Shell study)

67 CONCLUSIONS from Pisa.. Geothermal energy scored well in Europe and has an enormous potential. Geothermal Power: 1850 Mwe Deep Geothermal Resources (direct use): 8000 MWt (50% heating) Shallow Geothermal (GSHP, ATES, UTES): MWt (1.3 Million GSHP installed) 20

68 SHALLOW GEOTHERMAL APPLICATIONS SHALLOW GEOTHERMAL INSTALLED CAPACITY IN EUROPE 2012, AFTER EGC 2013 COUNTRY UPDATE REPORTS ,0 2,0 1,9 0,3 0,3 0, UK, installations 280 MWth Average 17 kwth/installation shallow geothermal uses values in italics from WGC Sweden Germany France Switzerland Finland Austria Norway Netherlands Italy Poland Denmark UK Estonia Belgium Czech Rep. Ireland Spain Greece Slovenia Lithuania Hungary Turkey Slovakia Russia Romania Serbia Belarus Bulgaria Macedonia Iceland Albania Portugal Latvia Bosnia-Herz. Installed Capacity (MW th ) UK Source: Curtis, GeoScience

69 MARKET SITUATION Investment in the different fields of the geothermal sector (only 21 of 33 countries; Germany with 960 Mio is considered in the total, but not in the sectorial breakdown) 4000 total 5300 Investment [Mio ] power direct shallow 69

70 3 orders of magnitude on the way to four

71 UK GSHP Growth?

72 Let s just get on with it! (Red Hot Initiative?) GW Electric GSHPs from Total installations Total GSHP installations Installed GSHP capacity Year 0 (lunch that is..)

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74 Hydraulics? If at first you don t succeed GeoScience

75 fit a bigger pump! GeoScience

76 ..MCS Hydraulics guide.or you will be down to ASHP performance levels. GeoScience

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