Integrated Global Carbon Observing Strategy IGCO

Transcription

1 Integrated Global Carbon Observing Strategy IGCO Ph. Ciais, B. Moore, W. Steffen, M. Hood, S. Quegan, J. Cihlar, M. Raupach, I. Rasool, S. Doney, C. Heinze, C. Sabine, K. Hibbard, D. Schulze, M. Heimann, A. Chédin, P. Monfray, A. Watson, C. LeQuéré, P. Tans, H. Dolman, R. Valentini, O. Arino, J. Townshend, G. Seufert, C. Field, I. Chu, C. Goodale, A. Nobre, G. Inoue, D. Crisp, D. Baldocchi, J. Tschirley, S. Denning, W. Cramer, R. Francey

2 objectives to develop a flexible yet robust strategy for deploying global systematic observations of the carbon cycle over the next decade. To provide the long-term observations required to improve understanding of the present state and future behaviour of the global carbon cycle, particularly the factors that control the global atmospheric CO 2 level. To monitor and assess the effectiveness of carbon sequestration and/or emission reduction activities on global atmospheric CO 2 levels, including attribution of sources and sinks by region and sector.

3 The global carbon cycle CO oxidation Atmosphere Atmosphère GtC accumulation Combustion CO2 (3.5) CO (0.5) Aerosols (<0.1) Photosynthèse 120 Respiration Plantes 60 Vegetation (600) Respiration sols 65 Puits bio Air -sea gross fluxes 90 Puits océan Emissions Charcoal formation <0.1 Déforestation Carbone sol (1600) DOC export 0.4 Ocean (39 000) (1 GtC = gc)

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5 The Carbon Observation Challenge within an International Context Formulate data requirements for integration ; Building upon TCO ; GOOS reports Modelling strategy for integration IPCC Scientific Assessment IGCO Operational Observations Focus on core set of observations that can be turned operational Focus on continuity challenges for satellite missions Focus on major new technologies Data assimilation and products Diagnostic modeling GCP Process studies and campaigns Prognostic modelling Analysis and Synthesis

6 1. Core set of carbon observations : fluxes and pools in linkage with underlying processes

7 Atmospheric column CO 2 concentration measured from satellites 1.1 Core Set of Observations : Fluxes Global, synoptic satellite observations to extrapolate in situ data Land-atmosphere CO 2 flux measured via eddy covariance flux network Atmospheric CO 2 concentration measured from in sit networks Carbon storage in the sediments of reservoirs, lakes Carbon storage in anthropogenic pools, primarily wood products Pools Soil carbon inventories Forest biomass inventories

8 1.2 Core set of Observations : Air sea fluxes Global, synoptic satellite observations to extrapolate in situ data Winds, SST, SSS, ocean colour Basin-scale observations of the airsea flux (ocean pco 2 ) from shipbased measurements, drifters and time series Sediment trap and sea-floor studies, with a special emphasis on coastal sediments Basin-scale ocean inventories with full column sampling of carbon system parameters Ocean pools

9 1.3 Linking fluxes to major processes Core space based observation Land-cover change Disturbances (e.g., fire frequency and extent) Leaf Area Index and related biophysical parameters Ocean colour (Ancillary) Co-sampling of parameters related to processes at eddy flux towers(e.g. soil moisture, nutrients, respiration terms, phenology) Co-sampling of parameters related to processes from ship-based measurements, drifters and time series (e.g. ecosystem variables, pigments, nutrients). Climate and weather data Soil moisture content In situ observation related to processes Soil characteristics Phenology of the terrestrial biosphere Nutrient distributions (ocean and land) Species composition of ecosystems Atmospheric tracers (O 2 :N 2 ; 13 C-CO 2 ; CO ; aerosols).

10 2. Major New Elements in the Global Carbon Observing Strategy

11 2.1 Atmospheric CO2 and Carbon Cycle Tracer Observations Existing 100 flask sampling sites 10 in situ stations 10 aircraft vertical profiles Needed Expansion over the interior of continents (Africa, Siberia, Amazon) Development of multiple-species analysis in flask air samples, Improvement of atmospheric tracer transport models and inverse methods towards higher spatial resolution Development of robust remotelyoperated continuous analyzers, Development of column CO 2 optical sensors in preparation of satellite CO 2 observations Continuation of intercomparison and calibration activities Atmospheric sampling on eddy flux towers and ocean surveys

12 2.2 Eddy Covariance fluxes of CO2, H2O and Energy Existing 100 eddy flux tower sites Co-located ecological studies at some sites Needed Ensure the continuity of existing measurements of eddy covariance ecosystem fluxes for at least 10 years at each site Expand the network in undersampled regions and ecosystems undergoing disturbances Real time data transfer, and to enhance data quality insurance procedures. Upscaling methods

13 2.3 Large scale biomass and soil carbon inventories Existing Forest biomass inventory in developed countries to assess commercial value of forests Soil surveys not optimized for carbon studies Networks and transects for ecological studies and phenological observations Satellite Remote Sensing (land cover, land use, vegetation activity, fires, radiation). Needed Improved allometric determination accounting for turnover rates in different plant organs Continuous, standardized georeferenced biomass and soil carbon inventories expand inventoories to woodlands, tropical forests Characterize soil org layer and mineral horizons improved satellite systems with adequate ground truthing (e.g. at flux tower sites) to provide global coverage of continents on synoptic time scales (1-7 days) for biophysical quantities

14 Existing Basin-scale surface observations of atmospheric and oceanic pco 2 and related parameters Large-scale ocean inventories from hydrographic survey with full water column sampling Moored and shipboard time series measurements Satellite remote sensing of parameters related to carbon fluxes (winds, sea surface temperature, ocean color) Needed Accurate, robust, cost-efficient, autonomous instruments for surface and subsurface sampling of carbonate system components robust algorithms for estimating air-sea gas exchange from easily measured parameters. satellite systems with adequate ground truthing to obtain higher ocean coverage of SSS, SST, wind speed, ocean colour. 2.4 Ocean carbon observations

15 Conclusions IGCO fits very well into GMES objectives IGCO will profit significantly from European engagement in systematic carbon observations European continent is at present the one most densely covered by carbon observations in research mode, which could be operationalized in GMES.

16 Continuity / Challenges for Remote Sensing component VCL? SEAWIFFS SMOS MERIS OCO CARBOSAT MODIS ATSR AVHRR VEGETATION SCIAMACHY AIRS

17 1.5 7 µ 2.5 Space based measurements of Atmospheric CO2 Advantage of dense, repetitive coverage Column integrated sampling IR and NIR sensors 2007 : OCO NIR passive Present: IR HiRs (Below), IASI, AIRS NIR : SCIAMACHY-Glint Future : NIR active 400 km Dawn/Dusk Sun Synch Orbit Nadir Pointing CW Fiber Laser Continuous 3 year C ollection 0.5% Precision in C O 2 Column on each retrieval λ 1 CELSIUS Spacecraft A B C CO 2 Laser A b sorption S pectroscopy λ 1 λ 2 λ 3 m λ 1 λ 1 λ 2 λ 1 λ 2 λ 3 t t t λ 2 λ 3 Night B A Day 100M Beam C 1.8 km Measurement Segment

18 2.5 Space based measurements of Atmospheric CO2 Modeled reduction of uncertainties on fluxes AIRS, IR passive, mostly upper troposphere SCIAMACHY, NIR passive glint mode, uniform column weigting

19 3. Filling Gaps in Current Carbon Observations Transport through Rivers, Estuaries, and Coastal Seas Transport of Wood and Food Products via Trade Circuits Non-CO2 Components of Ecosystem Respiration Nutrients Fluxes to and from Ecosystems Geo-referenced Fossil Fuel Emissions

20 4. Modeling and integration : Scaling issues 1000 km Upscaling 10 km Prediction µm dm ha Downscaling Verification

21 time 4.1 Complementarity of terrestrial observations centuries decadal Soil carbon * Forest * Inventories Inter annual Ecological site studies * Remote sensing One atm station seasonal synoptic Eddy Flux Towers * Atm Boundary layer measurements ** Flask network 1 ha 1 km2 Regional Continents Globe space 10 6 km2 * uneven geographic coverage **available as pilot studies only

22 time 4.1 Complementarity of ocean observations centuries decadal Shipboard Time-Series Repeat Trans-basin Sections Inter annual Moored Time-Series VOS surface pco 2 Remote sensing seasonal daily hourly Process Studies 1 m 2 1 km 2 Regional Ocean Globe (10 6 km 2 ) Basin space

23 Development of Carbon Cycle Data assimilation systems Georeferenced emissions inventories Atmospheric measurements Remote sensing of Atmospheric CO2 Data assimilation link Climate and weather fields Atmospheric Transport model optimize d Fluxes optimized model parameters Ocean time series Biogeochemical pco2 Surface observation pco2 nutrients Water column inventories Ocean carbon model Ocean remote sensing Ocean colour Altimetry Winds SST SSS Coastal studies Terrestrial rivers carbon model Lateral fluxes Remote sensing of Vegetation properties Growth Cycle Fires Biomass Radiation Land cover /use Eddy-covariance flux towers Biomass soil carbon inventories Ecological studies

24 End (rest of slides for questions)

25 Carbon data are complemenry within the integrated approach World Europe Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration Countries Eurogrid (~20-50km) 2 Plot/Site Remote Sensing Flux Measurements Ecosystem Information Forest/Soil Inventories

26 Existing : Co-located ecological study sites to investigate C and N pools and fluxes in European forests Innovative isotope technique to measure long term carbon sequestration Quantify the effect of harvest and reforestation on net C-fluxes in managed forests Stock changes in soils are very hard to observe Sample size for mean detectable change = 5 Mg C ha CarboEurope Literature UK, CV=49% UK, CV=30% Finland, CV=17% Finland, CV=25% Finland, CV=15% UK, CV=49% UK, CV=36% Soil carbon stock Mg C ha -1 CarboEurope finds that soil inventories are not suited for Kyoto monitoring

27 Existing : Network of 35 eddy-covariance flux towers Characterize processes by which ecosystems exchange CO2, water and energy Allow advanced mechanistic models to be parameterized Allow diagnostic of continental wide Net Ecosystem Productivity using neural network All forests in Europe appear to be taking up carbon at high rates

28 Existing : regional inversions using five mesoscale models Fig with regional inversion Model intercomparison Use of high frequency records

29 Remote sensing of CO2 AIRS, SCIAMACHY, OCO Coll with ECMWF Underway : Development of Carbon Cycle data assimilation systems

30 Regional scale intensive experiments over heterogeneous landcapes Upscale flux tower measurements to the regional level Quantitative understanding of flux heterogeneity and variability July 16, 2002 Fluxes of CO 2 (9.30 local time), Allow representativeness errors to be estimated in larger scale models Innovative airborne flux measurement technique now developed in Europe

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32 Planned : A Regional Experiment over a 300 km region, for One year in South Western France

33 In summary : The Four major components of Carboeurope

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35 Link to global carbon cycle issues : Benefits from the CARBOEUROPE integrated approach to quantify the carbon balance of Amazon and Siberia Links with sister project MARCASSA focused on North-Atlantic fluxes ; and Coastal areas? And