CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING. Outline. What is climate change? Climate change is happening. Climate change is no longer a hypothesis; It is a fact.

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1 CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING Joshua S. Fu, Ph.D. 1 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Tennessee, Knoxville 2 Joint Institute for Computational Sciences 3 Bredesen Center for Interdisciplinary Research and Graduate Study- Energy Science and Engineering 4 Computer Science and Mathematics Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory April 18, 2016 Designing Permeable Pavement and Bioretention for Climate Resiliency Training Workshop Cleveland, OH 1. Professor 2. Affiliate Faculty 3. Inaugural Professor 4. Joint Appointment Professor Outline 2 What is climate change? Climate change is happening Climate change is no longer a hypothesis; It is a fact. We have seen changes in rainfall, resulting in more floods, droughts, or intense rain, acidic depositions, ice caps are melting, and sea levels are rising, as well as more frequent and severe heat waves. 1

2 Cloud Cover 3 Precipitation Chemistry Biogenic Emissions Anthropogenic Emissions Solar Radiation IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 Working Group I Report "The Physical Science Basis" Chapter 1 Historical Overview of Climate Change Science (Fig 1, p104) Background Evidence Of Climate Change 2

3 Figure SPM.3 Multiple observed indicators of a changing global climate All Figures IPCC Figure SPM.5 Radiative forcing estimates in 2011 relative to 1750 All Figures IPCC

4 Figure SPM.6 Comparison of observed and simulated climate change All Figures IPCC Rate of Temperature Change in US (EPA) 8 4

5 Rate of Precipitation Change in US (EPA) 9 Global Average Absolute Sea Level Rise (EPA) 10 5

6 Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change 410 ppm 11 CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O Concentrations Far exceed pre-industrial values Increased markedly since 1750 due to human activities Show Relatively little variation before the industrial era IPCC AR 4, 2007 Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions (2010) 9.1±0.5 PgC/y 5.0 ± 0.2 PgC/y 50% 0.9±0.7 PgC/y ± 1.0 PgC/y 26% Calculated as the residual of all other flux components 24% 2.4 ± 0.5 PgC/y Average of 5 models Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 6

7 Top 20 CO 2 Fossil Fuel Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2010 ORNL Global Carbon Project Impacts of Climate Change 14 Climate Change (Extreme events) Air Quality Energy Public Health Ecosystem, Water Resources and Water Quality Agriculture and Food 7

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9 Heat Waves in Europe 17 Deaths in Chicago heat wave in 1995 Deaths in West Europe heat wave in 2003 MODIS Image about 45,000 died Heat Waves in Europe IPCC SREX,

10 Hurricanes in the US and Caribbean IPCC SREX, 2012 Fires in the Western US (AP Photo/The Denver Post, RJ Sangosti) 10

11 Sea Level Rise in Islands and Coastal Areas IPCC SREX, 2012 Flash Flooding in Cleveland, Ohio, July 2007 Source: 11

12 Drought in Texas (2011 and 2013), now California Source: Businessinsider.com Impact of storm over pavement Source: 12

13 Design factors of pavement Impact of Stormwater to Bioretention Source: 13

14 Impact of Cold Climate to Bioretention Source: Distribution of ph over US Source: 14

15 Impact of acid (nitrogen + sulfur) depositions 29 Lower the ph of surface water Weaken the vegetation and agriculture Decreases biodiversity and damage animals Source: Total (wet + dry) nitrogen and sulfur depositions over US 30 Multi-model mean from global climate-chemistry models, averaged from 2000 to

16 Drought at Northeast Ohio in 2012 Source: Precipitation over U.S. Great Lakes region 32 Source: 16

17 Snowfall over U.S. Great Lakes region 33 Source: Extreme Precipitation over U.S. Great Lakes region 34 Source: 17

18 Extreme Precipitation over U.S. Great Lakes region 35 Source: Precipitation over Northeastern Ohio 36 Source: 18

19 Precipitation over Northeastern Ohio 37 Source: Temperature over Northeastern Ohio 38 Source: 19

20 Temperature over Northeastern Ohio 39 Source: Temperature over Great Lakes Region F Source: 20

21 Overview of the study 41 Community Earth System Model CESM 1.0 Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-Chem) Regional Climate/Chem Model WRF 3.2.1/CMAQ 5.0 Community Land Model (CLM) Ocean component (POP) Community Sea Ice Model (CSIM) D1/D2/D3: km deg (~ km lat/lon) > 36 km, 12 km, 4 km The importance of the climate downscaling 42 The methodology developed in this study can be easily applied to other models/regions but this is a temporary strategy Provide important information for policy makers when taking actions on climate mitigation and adaptation A large amount of data (~700 T) has been produced from this study, and the data can be used in a variety of studies: The data is currently being investigated at Harvard University, Emory University and University of Michigan for predictions of Lyme disease and lung cancer. The data can be used as input to the biogeochemical or hydrologic model, to further investigate hydrology and water quality response to changes of climate in US. 21

22 Timeline of the Evolution of Climate Modeling Washington, W., L. Buja and A. Craig. The computational future for climate and Earth system models: on the path to petaflop and beyond, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A : Major focus study area 44 The points represent National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) U.S. the Cooperative Observer Network (COOP) stations in the Eastern US Issues in dynamical downscaling Selection of physics options Constraint from the boundary conditions, i.e., nudging techniques Evaluation of global and regional modeling Northeast (red color), Midwest (blue color) and Southeast (green color) Present: RCP 8.5: Gustafson et al

23 Probability curve of precipitation over Eastern US for present (2001 to 2004) 45 Probability curve of precipitation over Northeastern Ohio for present (2001 to 2004) 46 Northeastern Ohio 23

24 The definitions of heat waves 47 Heat wave intensity The highest three continuous night minimum temperature in a certain year Heat wave duration and frequency Source: CCSP, 2008 Huth et al., 2000 Meehl and Tebaldi, 2004 Two maximum daily temperature thresholds are used for the determination: T1 and T2 can be a) fixed values 30º C and 25 ºC b) the 97.5th and 81st percentiles A heat wave period is: (1) the maximum daily temperature reached T1 for at least 3 days (2) the mean daily maximum temperature remained above T1 while the daily maximum temperature reached T2 each day More intense and frequent heat waves in future climate Present ( ) RCP 8.5 ( ) - P Heat wave intensity (ºC) Heat wave duration frequency (events/year) (days/event) 24

25 City-level increase of heat waves 49 Among the top 50 cities by population in US, 20 are located in the eastern US tates_cities_by_population Extreme precipitation 50 Present ( ) RCP 8.5 ( ) - P Annual extreme precipitation (mm) Annual extreme precipitation days 25

26 Extreme precipitation over Northeastern Ohio 51 Present ( ) RCP 8.5 ( ) - P Annual extreme precipitation (mm) Annual extreme precipitation days 52 Heat Wave over Northeastern Ohio Heat Wave Intensity (K) Heat Wave Frequency (events/year) Heat Wave Duration (days/event) Present ( ) RCP 8.5 ( ) -P 26

27 Published paper 53 This paper has been featured in Environmental Research Web and more than 30 public media One of top 5 downloads in the last 30 days in the Environmental Research Letters (more than 1000 downloads within 3 months) 54 Today: peta-scale supercomputers 27

28 55 Thank you for your attention! 28