Project Summary. AMPO Air Quality Work Group. Rich Denbow. April 27-28, presented to. presented by

Transcription

1 NCHRP 25-38, Input Guidelines for MOVES Project Summary presented to AMPO Air Quality Work Group presented by Rich Denbow April 27-28, 2015

2 Objectives and Products Objective» Produce guidelines for transportation practitioners on methods, procedures, and datasets needed to develop and obtain transportation-related regional- and project-level inputs for using MOVES Products» Resource document on developing MOVES inputs» Sample data & examples» Tools for processing data» Final report documenting research approach 2

3 MOVES Inputs Covered in Resource Document 3 Volume 1 Regional-Level Inputs» Age distribution» Source (vehicle) type population» VMT by vehicle class» Temporal adjustments» Road type distribution» Ramp fraction» Average speed distribution» Meteorology» Inspection and maintenance programs» Fuel formulation and supply Volume 2 Project-Level Inputs» Age distribution» Link source types» Link characteristics: traffic volumes length and grade average speed» Operating mode distributions and drive schedules» Off-network data

4 Activities Completed:» Literature review and survey of practitioners (75 respondents thank you!!!)» Sensitivity analysis on MOVES inputs» Resource materials for each MOVES input» Examples» Tools Panel review Final report & resource materials 4

5 Sensitivity Analysis Objective: complement other efforts, expand to more inputs Type of Input Input EPA Volpe/FHWA Fleet-Based Inputs Activity- Based Inputs Age distribution by vehicle class Source (vehicle) type population VMT by vehicle class Temporal adjustments Road type distribution NCHRP CS/ERG ERG/CRC Ramp fraction Average speed distribution Meteorology data (temp, humidity) Other Inputs IM Program Fuel formulation and supply 5

6 Sensitivity Analysis Results Road Grade Effects of Road Grade on Emissions Urban Unrestricted Access Roads 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% -100% -6% -4% -2% 2% 4% 6% VOC CO NOx CO2 PM10 6

7 Summary of MOVES Inputs Falling in Different Sensitivity Ranges MOVES Input VOC NOx PM Temperature Humidity Substantial Speed Age Substantial Substantial VMT Substantial Population Substantial Substantial Substantial Ramp Fraction Substantial Source Type Detail for Road Type Dist Moderate Source Type Detail for Speed Dist Moderate Month VMT Fraction Hour VMT Fraction 7

8 Collect and Analyze Data and Develop Sample Datasets Dataset/Source Contents Inputs Supported VTRIS Highway Statistics Classified traffic counts (reporting states) VMT estimates from traffic counts (all states and UZA) Temporal distributions (hr and day) VMT (fractions) Road type distributions VMT (fractions) ITS Metro ITS volume and speed data Speed distributions Temporal distributions (all) Private Vendor Speed Data GPS Travel Surveys Travel Demand Forecasting Models Speed from in-vehicle devices GPS-supported household travel surveys vehicle traces Current and forecast volumes and speeds Speed distributions Speed distributions VMT Road type distributions Speed distributions MCMIS Commercial vehicle fleets Source type population Age distribution 8

9 Speed Data and Estimation Methods Compared a variety of speed data sources and estimation methods» Models, ITS detectors, NAVTEQ/INRI, GPS surveys Average Speed Jacksonville Freeways Average Speed - Atlanta Freeways Overnight AM Peak Midday PM Peak Overnight AM Peak Midday PM Peak TDFM TDFM - Postproc. ITS TDFM - #1 TDFM - #2 ITS GPS 9

10 Age Fraction Off-Network Examples & Data Sources Port Terminal» Drayage truck study (EPA/ERG)» Port entry/exit data» Portable activity monitors Municipal Parking Lot» Passenger vehicle starts» Parking lot accumulation study Truck Rest Stop» Heavy-Duty Extended idle» Truck Idling study (M. Baker) Bayport Gate Entries MOVES Default (Source Type 61) Age (years)

11 Tools MOVES Operating Mode Data Import Tool MOVES Meteorology Data Import Tool 11

12 Tools (continued) MOVES Highway Statistics Analysis MOVES VTRIS Analysis Tool 12

13 Examples Example #1: Regional Analysis with Limited Data Example #2: Regional Analysis with More Extensive Data Example #3 Project-Level Analysis These are included in the Guidebook 13

14 Example Topics Covered in Resource Documents 14 Analysis of temporal (hour, day) distributions by source type in 27 states based on FHWA Vehicle Travel Information System (VTRIS) data from traffic counters State-level road type distributions by source type based on Highway Statistics data Methods for combining registration and VMT data for source type populations inputs Supplementing reg. data with license plate surveys to account for out-of-area vehicles in age distribution Examples of drive-cycle inputs for project-level analysis

15 Additional Research and Data Needs Data Collection» Classified traffic data collection for VMT-based inputs» Speed data and traffic networks» Heavy-duty vehicle fleets and activity» Off-network data 15 Research and Methodology Development» Speed data by source type» Speed prediction methods» Traffic classification methods» Truck short- versus long-haul populations» Expanded use of fleet-based telematics data to measure heavyduty vehicle activity

16 16 Thank You!