ECN Scenario Approach Presentation ECN: Severn Estuary

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1 IMCORE SCENARIOS TRAINING WORKSHOP Budapest Room, Hilton Conference Centre Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Tuesday 2 February 2010 ECN Scenario Approach Presentation ECN: Severn Estuary

2 1. Main theme & approach Capacity-building & enhanced governance of climate change adaptation around the Severn Estuary

3 2. Context: the Severn ECN Work Programme

2. Severn ECN Aims & Objectives Aims: To inform the development of climate change adaptation on the Severn Estuary To encourage joint working and improved interaction between scientists and

climate change To evaluate the policy needs for climate change information and data on the Severn Estuary To explore mechanisms for enhancing science-policy integration on climate change on

4 2. Severn ECN Aims & Objectives Aims: To inform the development of climate change adaptation on the Severn Estuary To encourage joint working and improved interaction between scientists and policy makers Objectives: To enhance the science base on climate change for application within the overall management system of the Severn Estuary To stocktake corporate responses to climate change To evaluate the policy needs for climate change information and data on the Severn Estuary To explore mechanisms for enhancing science-policy integration on climate change on the estuary at estuary and local levels To increase awareness of climate change impacts and adaptation options To create guidelines for the development of adaptation options for th Severn Estuary

5 2. ECN Work

6 Severn issues and challenges

2. Key issues and challenges (Spatial) development needs and increased flood/coastal erosion risks associated with climate change & sea level rise Need to see how spatial development needs (including

7 2. Key issues and challenges (Spatial) development needs and increased flood/coastal erosion risks associated with climate change & sea level rise Need to see how spatial development needs (including development allocations) can be accommodated given climate change (flood risk; storm surges etc.) Need to understand pan-estuary and wider socio-economic context & how this is or is not dealt with by current policy documents (SMPII; RBMP; LPA; LA) Critical infrastructure issues associated with climate change & sea level rise Much of Severn Estuary infrastructure is of national and regional as well as local importance Lack of clarity over climate change, its impact & significance

8 2. Key issues and challenges Institutional & governance issues Complex policy landscape overlapping / conflicting? England / Wales; multiple local government policies SMP (to 100yrs); WFD; regional/national spatial plans Science needs & inputs to policy variable Extent to which policy influences practice Engagement with climate change adaptation variable SEP s role still emerging (State of Estuary aspirations) Tewkesbury Borough Council

9 Scenario Options under consideration Or HOW do we ADD VALUE? Use scenarios to help resolve issues?

10 3. Issues? Some scenario possibilities Issue: Understanding of pan-estuary and wider socioeconomic context for spatial development Exploratory scenario to explore possible socio-economic futures (1) Issue: How development / critical infrastructure needs can be accommodated in the context of climate change Exploratory scenario to explore how these needs might be addressed (2) Issue: lack of clarity over climate change, its impact & significance To understand climate change - Predictive scenarios (UKCP09/SECRRAG/EA data) to visualise climate change (for selected sites) (3) To understand climate change impacts - Coupling/Integrated assessment of SRES (1) & predictive scenarios (3) (for selected sites) (4)

11 3. Issues? Some scenario possibilities Institutional & governance issues To encourage joint working / collaboration Exploratory scenario to explore possible futures for joint working (for specific sectors/sites?) (5) To define vision for estuary joint working & collaboration for climate change use Normative Scenario (6) To encourage better science-policy integration Exploratory scenario to explore possible science-policy futures (for spatial development planning) (7) To define vision for better science policy integration in contex of spatial development planning use backcasting & Normative Scenario (8) To improve engagement of policy makers with climate change Could be achieved by involvement of policy makers in the development of many of the above scenario possibilities Schools use of scenarios to improve understanding of future polic makers (9)

12 3. Summary: Scenario options under consideration 1) Exploratory scenario to explore possible socio-economic futures 2) Exploratory scenario to explore development needs v climate chang 3) Predictive scenarios (UKCP09/SECRRAG/EA data) to visualise climate change (for selected sites) 4) Coupling/Integrated assessment of SRES (1) & predictive scenarios (3) (for selected sites) 5) Exploratory scenario to explore possible futures for joint working (fo specific sectors/sites?) 6) To define vision for estuary joint working & collaboration for climate change use Normative Scenario 7) Exploratory scenario to explore possible science-policy futures (for spatial development planning) 8) To define vision for better science policy integration in context of spatial development planning use backcasting & Normative Scenario 9) Educational development of scenarios

Issues: Time, resources and MACE skill base CAN WE DO A ROUGH AND READY VERSION based on existing sources? Can this be incorporated in to State of Estuary report (& funding?

13 Issues: Time, resources and MACE skill base CAN WE DO A ROUGH AND READY VERSION based on existing sources? Can this be incorporated in to State of Estuary report (& funding?) Option 1: socio-economic futures for the Severn Estuary Purpose: to help understand wider socio-economic processes and their likely impacts on the Severn Estuary, particularly land use development To help understand context for specific case study sites to identify future land use changes and possible implications for climate/flood risk To test / add value to existing plans (spatial plans; SMPII) could feed into State of Estuary (SEP) initiative Scale: whole estuary Develop more detailed scenarios for spatial development as defined in town and country planning legislation and/or critical infrastructure Types of scenarios / approach: SRES downscaling / use of existing Welsh/South West socio-economic work desk study Supplement with interviews with selected planners/economists etc. Take results of desk study validate at estuary-wide workshop Who is involved: Spatial planners; regional and local economic development personnel; academics

14 Option 2: development needs & climate change Purpose: to explore the ways in which spatial development needs can be accommodated in the context of climate change Include physical on-ground adaptation approaches To increase awareness of spatial planners of climate change and possible adaptation responses To encourage pan-estuary collaboration and learning Scale: whole estuary Focus on a specific type or types of development? Types of scenarios / approach: Exploratory scenario following interviews with selected planners; investigation of case studies Who is involved: Spatial planners; regional and local economic development personnel; academics Issues: How to link / relate to planners workshop (June) Timing issues if build on case studies

15 Option 3: climate change projections for the Severn Purpose: to improve clarity of climate change projections for the Severn to illustrate variations/uncertainties / impacts associated with various climate change projections Test SMPII policy options? Scale: Selected case study sites only Only focus on climate change parameters (identified from planners concerns via interviews/planning documents) Types of scenarios: Predictive scenarios illustrate variations/uncertainties Who is involved: MACE staff; SECCRAG; Bristol Uni?; EA? Issues: Links to visualisation (GIS); how to visualise certain parameters? Builds on case study research time frame? EA existing sources Useful resource for education pack

Option 4: predicting climate change impacts Purpose: to build up an understanding of secondary climate change impacts (based on case study sites only) To demonstrate these impacts to potential policy

16 Option 4: predicting climate change impacts Purpose: to build up an understanding of secondary climate change impacts (based on case study sites only) To demonstrate these impacts to potential policy makers (school children) to facilitate engagement in climate change Scale: for selected case study sites only for specific climate change parameters only Highlight particularly vulnerable communities / developments Types of scenarios: Coupling/Integrated assessment of SRES (1) & predictive scenarios (3) (for selected sites) (4) on option 1 results (coupling & test existing plans - quantitative indicators) Who is involved: MACE staff; SECCRAG; EA? Issues: Links to visualisation (GIS) Identifying vulnerability indicators Timing to be useful as demonstration material

Option 5: enhancement of joint working Purpose: to explore possible futures for joint working To facilitate dialogue between policy makers at various scales To develop a wider estuary consciousness

17 Option 5: enhancement of joint working Purpose: to explore possible futures for joint working To facilitate dialogue between policy makers at various scales To develop a wider estuary consciousness Scale: Estuary-wide Sector / administrative level focus (suggest joint working between planners at local, estuary and regional scale) Focus on range of planning processes/documents (estuary; local authority) Types of scenarios: Planners review & case study sites identify drivers/issues associated with joint working Planning processes & levels to focus on Exploratory scenarios to be developed Who is involved: Planners associated with relevant local, regional and estuary-wide planning processes Issues: Timing with respect to building on planners review and case study sites Opportunities to 5th scenario the vision for joint working out of this? (option 6)

18 Option 6: vision for joint working Purpose: To define vision for estuary joint working & collaboration for climate change To facilitate dialogue between policy makers at various scales To develop a wider estuary consciousness To inform development of adaptation strategy guidelines To inform principles for SEP (review of Strategy document) Scale: Estuary-wide Focus on same planning processes & levels as option 5 Types of scenarios: Planners review & case study sites identify drivers/issues associated with joint working Planning processes & levels to focus on Normative scenario to be developed use backcasting? Who is involved: Planners associated with relevant local, regional and estuary-wide planning processes Issues: Builds / dependent on Option 5 Timing Can this be IMCORE Workshop 3 activity?

Option 7: enhancement of science-policy interface Purpose: to explore possible science-policy futures To facilitate dialogue between policy makers and scientists To increase policy makers knowledge

19 Option 7: enhancement of science-policy interface Purpose: to explore possible science-policy futures To facilitate dialogue between policy makers and scientists To increase policy makers knowledge of possible science inputs and scientists comprehension of policy needs Scale: Estuary-wide Focus on local authority policy documents/plans & selected climate change science inputs/needs for these Types of scenarios: Planners review & case study sites identify drivers/issues associated with science-policy interface / science input Climate change science inputs/needs to focus on Exploratory scenarios to be developed Who is involved: Planners associated with relevant local planning processes Relevant science providers (mediators and translators) Issues: Builds on SECCRAG (COREPOINT and IMCORE) Timing with respect to building on planners review and case study sites SECCRAG3? / joint workshop with Option 5?

20 Option 8: vision for joint working between scientists & policy makers Purpose: To define vision for better science policy integration To facilitate dialogue between scientists & policy makers To inform development of adaptation strategy guidelines To inform principles for SEP (review of Strategy document) Scale: Estuary-wide Focus on same planning processes & levels as option 7 Types of scenarios: Informed by SECCRAG, Option 7, Planners review & case study sites Normative Scenario use backcasting Who is involved: Planners associated with relevant local planning processes Relevant science providers (mediators and translators) Issues: Builds / dependent on Option 7 Timing Can this be IMCORE Workshop 3 activity? Can it be a joint workshop with Option 6?

21 Option 9: developing childrens capacity Use scenarios as an educative tool associated with development of education pack Twin schools on either side of the estuary? See dossier

22 The Severn ECN Way forward

23 3. Way forward preparatory scoping tasks Discussions: Scenarios TWG With Glamorgan Uni With SEP (subset) With critical friend (CMRC) Further research into options / SWOT analysis? Factors to consider: Existing knowledge/capital Former studies; research Resources Human / technical (futures/engagement) Data/information (input) / data processing / visualisation Time & Cost Stakeholder context Complexity & variability Previous experience with stakeholders (level of engagement/trust etc.) Other interlinkages between options (win-win situations) Testing scenarios ICM module workshops/exercise

24 Key questions Help! Your thoughts & views?

ECN Scenario Approach Presentation ECN: Golfe du Morbihan

IMCORE SCENARIOS TRAINING WORKSHOP Budapest Room, Hilton Conference Centre Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Tuesday 2 February 2010 ECN Scenario Approach Presentation ECN: Golfe du Morbihan OUR AIMS :? Stakeholders