TRANSIT ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT IN THE RANDSTAD SOUTHWING PROF. DR. KARST GEURS, UNIVERSITY OF TWENTE

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1 TRANSIT ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT IN THE RANDSTAD SOUTHWING PROF. DR. KARST GEURS, UNIVERSITY OF TWENTE

2 Study area: Randstad South and Stedenbaan

3 REGIONAL TOD PROGRAMME STEDENBAAN Aims to strengthen the economic position of the province of ZuidHolland by improving the main rail frequency by An agreement between regional and local governments, Dutch railways and national railway manager Prorail Locate 60-80% of new dwellings and concentrate office developments within 1200 m from train stations (up to 2020) Improvement of stations, station facilities, station areas, bicycle parking and addition of some new stations But it is a TOD programme in an economic crisis: drop in demand for new housing, overcapacity in office market, und uncertainty in location preferences and governance issues with many stakeholders

4 Research programme Transit Oriented Development in the Randstad Southwing (Three 2 year postdoc projects (Aug 2012-Aug2014): Accessibility of TOD (University of Twente): How does station accessibility for cyclists and pedestrians affect train use? What are impact of changes in local infrastructure, station facilities and station environments on train use and potential accessibility? Economics of TOD (VU University Amsterdam): Do office vacancy rates depend on proximity to the station? How does the number of stations in a corridor affect the spatial economic impacts of TOD? Market perspective for TOD (Delft University): To what extent, and under what conditions, are users willing to attune their residential and work location choices and travel behaviour on the TOD model. 4

5 Accessibility of TOD 5

6 Accessibility of TOD - research methods (Lissy la Paix) Secondary data analysis, GIS analysis (bicycle infrastructure) RP-SP Survey among 1500 residents of Randstad Southwing, 5km catchment area Assessment of station, station facilities, access/ egress route characteristics, etc. Choice experiments for access and egress Multimodal transport modelling 6

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8 Change in equivalent travel time by station type Free guarded bicycle parking change in waiting time [minutes] Improved liveliness of station quality (bicyclists) station type 0-1 change in waiting time [minutes] station type

9 Effects of changes in station access on train use % change in train passengers per scenario 0,14 0,12 0,1 0,08 0,06 0,04 0,02 0 Access Egress Walking time to platform (sc6)

10 Accessibility of TOD some results Train ridership depends on access time, costs and quality by the different access modes. Improving liveliness of train stations encourage walking and biking to the train station, and increase train use Quality and cost of bicycle facilities at stations are more important than quality/speed of bicycle route to the station Impacts depend on station type (quality in reference situation) 10

11 THE ECONOMICS OF TOD 11

12 TRAIN STATIONS AND OFFICE VACANCIES (HANS KOSTER, VU) Regression model, controlling for location and office characteristics Legend railway Office vacancy rates not influenced by proximity to the station Vacancy rate No data Changes in vacancy rates are not larger at railway stations Reduction of overcapacity (e.g. finding new uses) and prioritizing new office locations are important factors determining success of TOD programme Data: Jones Lang LaSalle (2012) 12

13 GENERAL ECONOMIC EQUILIBRIUM MODEL (ANAS) (MARTIJN DRÖES, VU) A THEORETICAL MODEL IS DEVELOPED TO EXAMINE TO WHAT EXTENT RAILWAY TRAVEL LEADS TO URBANIZATION IN A RAILWAY CORRIDOR (11 ZONES) BASELINE WITH NO RAILWAY LINK, STATIONS IN EACH ZONE, 3 RAILWAY STATIONS (ZONE 1, 6, 11) WITH 3 STATIONS, POPULATION DENSITY AROUND STATIONS IS ABOUT 6-7% HIGHER THAN WITH 11 STATIONS BUT SHARE OF TRAIN USERS IS LOWER (CAR COMMUTING IS 5-6% HIGHER) TRADEOFF: TO STRENGTHEN THE LOCAL ECONOMY, A STRATEGIC PLACEMENT OF STATIONS IS NECESSARY. TO INCREASE TRAIN USE AND DECREASE CAR COMMUTING A RELATIVELY LARGER NUMBER OF TRAIN STATIONS, DISPERSED ACROSS ECONOMIC ZONES, IS MORE EFFECTIVE

14 MARKET PERSPECTIVE FOR TOD 14

15 MARKET PERSPECTIVE FOR TOD CHRISTA HUBERS, DELFT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY METHODOLOGY ONLINE SURVEY (1300 COMMUTERS IN RANDSTAD SOUTH <4 KM FROM STATION) LOGISTIC REGRESSION ANALYSIS 15

16 MARKET PERSPECTIVE - CONCLUSIONS TRAIN USE PARTLY EXPLAINED BY PREFERENCES AND ATTITUDES (E.G., TOWARDS ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES) COMMUTING MODE CHOICE IS MORE AFFECTED BY THE DISTANCE BETWEEN WORK AND TRAIN STATION THAN BETWEEN HOME AND TRAIN STATION HOUSEHOLD TYPE (E.G., INCOME) DOES NOT SEEM RELATED TO WILLINGNESS TO MOVE CLOSER TO PUBLIC TRANSPORT EMPLOYERS CAN MAKE COMMUTING BY TRAIN MORE ATTRACTIVE (REDUCING COSTS, FLEXIBILITY IN WORKING HOURS, TELEWORKING).

17 MAIN CONCLUSIONS IMPROVING STATION ACCESS (TIME, COST AND QUALITY) AND QUALITY OF STATION FACILITIES CAN BE EFFECTIVE IN INCREASING TRAIN USE AND ACCESSIBILITY. ADDING JOBS, SHOPS, ETC., IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN ADDING HOUSING AT CLOSE PROXIMITY OF STATIONS (ROLE OF BICYCLE!). BUT HOW TO DO THIS IN THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS AND HIGH VACANCY RATES IN THE OFFICE MARKET? HAVE MODEST EXPECTATIONS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF TOD. TO STIMULATE TOD, A REGIONAL PRIORITIZATION OF TOD LOCATIONS AND STATIONS TYPES IS NECESSARY. LESS IS MORE. A BROAD PERSPECTIVE ON TOD IS NEEDED, INCLUDING MOBILITY MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES AND CHANGING PREFERENCES AND ATTITUDES 17

18 MORE DETAILS: