An Empirical Framework for Assessing Market Saturation in the U.S. Casino Industry
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1 An Empirical Framework for Assessing Market Saturation in the U.S. Casino Industry Clyde Barrow, Ph.D., University of Texas Rio Grande Valley David Borges, University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth Alan Meister, Ph.D., Nathan Associates 16th International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking June 9, 2016
2 Motivation for Our Research Continued expansion of casino gaming industry over the last few years amidst slow-growth economy has led to concerns among state legislators, gaming regulators, and industry executives about: Market maturation Cannibalization Market saturation 1
3 Market Saturation Definition of market saturation When supply and demand are in equilibrium (i.e., supply equals demand) The point at which no more of a product/service can be sold in a market without reducing sales of existing products/services How do we know when a market is saturated? How do we measure it? 2
4 Goals of Our Research Conduct a systematic empirical analysis of market saturation in the U.S. casino gaming industry: Identify and compare various metrics for measuring market saturation Compute market saturation metrics for U.S. casino markets widely acknowledged as being saturated Employ market saturation metrics for these saturated markets as benchmarks for evaluating saturation in other markets 3
5 Market Saturation Metrics 5 metrics used in gaming industry literature for measuring concentration of casino gaming* Gaming machines per 1,000 adults Gaming machines per $1 billion of disposable personal income (DPI) Win per machine per day Gross gaming revenue (GGR) per capita Gross gaming revenue (GGR) as a ratio of disposable personal income (DPI) * Note: Higher levels of all metrics except Win per machine per day indicate higher degree of market saturation. 4
6 Saturated Markets 4 gaming markets widely asserted to be saturated by gaming researchers, analysts, and market participants: Atlantic City, New Jersey Tunica/Lula, Mississippi St. Louis, Missouri/Illinois Kansas City, Missouri/Kansas 5
7 Defining a Market Key component of measuring market is defining markets: Product market: casino gaming Geographic market: core geographic in which gaming facilities in a region compete for customers; measured in minutes drive time Caveats: Casino markets not based on any standardized definition One size does not fit all casino markets 6
8 Data for Atlantic City Market Atlantic City Casino Gaming Market Market Data and Market Saturation Metrics Market Size (Radius in Minutes Drive Time) 150 Total Population 23,184,389 Adult Population (Age 21+) 17,088,213 Disposable Personal Income (DPI) $1,111,686,923,514 Per Capita Income (21+) $34,385 Number of Gaming Facilities 24 Number of Gaming Machines 54,106 Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) $6,812,720,264 Gaming Machine Revenue $5,215,799,692 Note: Gaming data for year ending June Sources: U.S. Census ACS ( & 5-yr estimates); U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (2014); New Jersey Casino Control Commission ( ); Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board ( ); Delaware Lottery ( ); Maryland Lottery & Gaming Control Agency ( ); and New York State Gaming Commission ( ). 7
9 Data for Tunica/Lula Market Tunica/Lula Casino Gaming Market Market Data and Market Saturation Metrics Market Size (Radius in Minutes Drive Time) 120 Total Population 2,232,402 Adult Population (Age 21+) 1,563,885 Disposable Personal Income (DPI) $75,710,588,698 Per Capita Income (21+) $23,010 Number of Gaming Facilities 10 Number of Gaming Machines 11,487 Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) $837,780,172 Gaming Machine Revenue $733,078,706 Notes: Gaming data for year ending June Sources: U.S. Census ACS ( yr estimates); U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (2014); Mississippi Gaming Commission ( ); and State of Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration ( ). 8
10 Data for St. Louis Market St. Louis Casino Gaming Market Market Data and Market Saturation Metrics Market Size (Radius in Minutes Drive Time) 60 Total Population 2,749,192 Adult Population (Age 21+) 2,005,787 Disposable Personal Income (DPI) $119,260,861,788 Per Capita Income (21+) $30,042 Number of Gaming Facilities 292 Number of Gaming Machines 11,718 Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) $1,029,303,641 Gaming Machine Revenue $898,251,294 Note: Gaming data for year ending June Sources: U.S. Census ACS ( yr estimates); U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (2014); Missouri Gaming Commission ( ); and Illinois Gaming Board ( ). 9
11 Data for Kansas City Market Kansas City Casino Gaming Market Market Data and Market Saturation Metrics Market Size (Radius in Minutes Drive Time) 60 Total Population 2,288,573 Adult Population (Age 21+) 1,630,000 Disposable Personal Income (DPI) $97,949,258,266 Per Capita Income (21+) $29,622 Number of Gaming Facilities 7 Number of Gaming Machines 9,603 Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) $811,651,600 Gaming Machine Revenue $707,449,135 Note: Gaming data for year ending June Sources: U.S. Census ACS ( yr estimates); U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (2014); Missouri Gaming Commission ( ); and Kansas Racing & Gaming Commission ( ). 10
12 Saturation Metrics for Saturated Markets Comparison of Market Saturation Metrics Across Casino Gaming Markets, 2015 Atlantic City Tunica/Lula St. Louis Kansas City Machines Per 1,000 Adults (21+) Machines Per $1 Billion of DPI Win/Machine/Day $264 $175 $210 $202 GGR Per Capita (21+) $399 $536 $513 $498 GGR as Ratio of DPI Notes: Year ends June A higher value indicates greater market saturation for Machines Per 1,000 Adults (21+), Machines Per $1b of DPI, GGR Per Capita (21+), and GGR as Ratio of DPI. A lower value indicates greater market saturation for Win/Machine/Day. 11
13 Analysis of Chicagoland Casino Market Comparison of Market Saturation Metrics Across Casino Gaming Markets, 2015 Tunica/Lula St. Louis Kansas City Atlantic City Chicagoland Machines Per 1,000 Adults (21+) Machines Per $1 Billion of DPI Win/Machine/Day $175 $210 $202 $264 $292 GGR Per Capita (21+) $536 $513 $498 $399 $338 GGR as Ratio of DPI Notes: Year ends June A higher value indicates greater market saturation for Machines Per 1,000 Adults (21+), Machines Per $1b of DPI, GGR Per Capita (21+), and GGR as Ratio of DPI. A lower value indicates greater market saturation for Win/Machine/Day. 12
14 Questions: Alan Meister, Ph.D
15 An Empirical Framework for Assessing Market Saturation in the U.S. Casino Industry The information contained in this presentation is the opinion of the presenter and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of their respective universities or Nathan Associates Inc. Forward-looking observations are based upon information available to the presenter, as well as estimates and assumptions. No warranty or representation is made regarding any forward-looking observations. 14
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