Year-End 2017 / Industrial Market Report. Orlando
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1 Year-End 2017 / Industrial Market Report Market Facts MSF Total inventory in the industrial market,07,357 SF Direct net absorption for % Overall Vacancy $6.8 PSF Average rental rate for industrial space in on a triple-net basis Sustained Employment Growth, Strong Leasing and Robust Development Activity Fueled Growth in During 2017 Economic Drivers Strong broad-based and sustained e-commerce demand fueled the nation s industrial market in Economic fundamentals in remain strong as indicated by the sustained decline in the unemployment rate, which stood at 3.5% as of November 2017 a marked 90-basis point (bps) decrease from the previous year. The brisk pace of job growth continues with over 3,0 new jobs added in the trailing 12-month period, and was recently ranked by Forbes.com as being the secondbest job market in the country, outranked only by Miami. Strong net absorption is being realized and newly delivered speculative projects are being quickly leased as the construction pipeline has begun to deliver much-needed warehouse and distribution space. On the national economic front, The Federal Reserve demonstrated its confidence in the growing U.S. economy by instituting a 25- bps interest rate hike in December, taking the fed funds target range to between 1.25% and 1.%, with three additional hikes expected during Industrial Market Snapshot At the close of the fourth quarter, industrial fundamentals in were strong with impressive net absorption of just over million sf for the year, a considerable uptick in asking rental rates over the previous year, and a vacancy rate that dropped 57 bps to 5.2% even after 3.2 million sf of new space was delivered during With net absorption still outpacing new deliveries, it is clear that there is still considerable fuel left in 's industrial engine. Net absorption during 2017 was nearly double the rate recorded one year prior and Landlords continue to incrementally increase rental rates, with the average asking rent rising $0.8 psf on a triple-net basis since the end of the Consistent
2 Industrial Market Report Year-End 2017 The burgeoning Northwest area is expected to experience strong leasing activity in the first half of 2018 following the delivery of several new industrial development projects. Average Asking Rent Rate ($/SF/NNN) $9.00 $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $.00 $3.00 $2.00 $ Vacancy Rate 1.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0%.0% 2.0% 0.0% Bulk Flex MF Off/WH Overall Direct Net Absorption (SF),0,000,000,000 3,0,000 3,000,000 2,0,000 2,000,000 1,0,000 1,000,000 0, ,219, ,000 Sublet 1,987,168 2,11,77,07, demand remains for space in older and less functionally efficient buildings as a result of steadily increasing e-commerce demand, and rates are rising in those properties albeit at a slower pace. Approximately 87% of all net absorption for the year to date has taken place within bulk distribution and warehouse buidings, and while much of that absorption was directly attributable to pre-leasing activity in recently delivered buildings in the Airport/Southeast submarket, the burgeoning Northwest area is expected to experience strong leasing activity in the first half of 2018 following the delivery of new projects like The 29, Winter Garden Commerce Center, and Northwest Distribution Center, along with the planned Ocoee Business Park. Investment activity was steady during the fourth quarter with four properties trading hands. Denholtz Associates, in a joint venture with Militello Capital, purchased both Silver Star Commerce Center and Parkway Commerce Center in the Silver Star submarket for a combined $17 million, or $9 psf, and First Industrial purchased Gills Drive for $8.2 million, or $96 psf. Blackstone also acquired the 121,000-sf Mary Busineses Center for $8.6 million, or $71 per sf, as part of a 35-property national core market portfolio totaling.9 million sf and $326.5 million in total transaction volume. Industrial Land Remains in High Demand Industrial-ready land within the market is disappearing fast, with robust demand from developers creating the need to move quickly to contract in order to secure a site. For example, Highlands REIT recently marketed a large industrial site just east of Lockheed Martin in the Southwest submarket. The 101-acre site represented the largest remaining industrial tract in Southwest that could accommodate large scale development. The property, which was expected to attract strong developer interest, was quickly put under contract by Universal for $27.5 million and closed in late October. A planned new theme park is widely anticipated on the site. Looking Ahead Nationwide, industrial developers anticipate that supply will remain largely in check with demand, allowing for continued but moderate rental rate growth, that vacancies will remain low, and that demand for industrial space will be broad-based and not driven primarily by thriving e-commerce demand. With industrial fundamentals strengthening it is likely that 2018 will in many ways mirror 2017 in, characterized by strong net absorption, continued speculative development, sustained leasing activity, and healthy rental rate growth (particularly within newer bulk distribution and warehouse buildings in the Airport/Southeast and Northwest submarkets). Tight market conditions persisted throughout 2017 and are expected to continue in 2018, especially as attention shifts away from landconstrained areas to secondary markets like - and more specifically the growing area of Northwest Orange County along the SR 29 corridor.
3 Industrial Market Report Year-End 2017 ORLANDO MSA TOTAL Bulk Distribution 38,03,06 $5.02 2,228,625 82, % 5.80% 0.21% 6.02% 207,676 2,098,199 Flex 13,951,862 $ ,057,28 8, % 7.58% 0.06% 7.6% 0 79,122 Manufacturing 6,739,913 $5.11 3, % 5.11% 0.00% 5.11% 0 79,700 Warehouse / Distribution,573,92 $6.33 2,136,391 86, %.22% 0.17%.39% 905,305 1,390,336 Market Total 109,668,75 $6.8 5,766,76 176, % 5.26% 0.16% 5.2% 1,112,981,07,357 Northwest Bulk Distribution 1,072,99 $5.5 19,6 60, % 13.90% 5.59% 19.9% 0 180,38 Flex 76,38 $9.75 3, % 0.72% 0.00% 0.72% 0 5,521 Manufacturing 1,126,395 $ % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 Warehouse / Distribution 3,523,296 $ , % 10.% 0.00% 10.% 26,000 63,86 Northwest Total 6,199,078 $ ,325 60, % 8.39% 0.97% 9.36% 26,000 29,5 Silver Star Bulk Distribution 3,365,35 $ , % 2.25% 0.00% 2.25% 0 70,700 Flex 1,317,56 $ , % 6.6% 0.00% 6.6% 0 52,800 Manufacturing 1,3,710 $5.81 5, % 0.5% 0.00% 0.5% 0 (5,900) Warehouse / Distribution 7,973,982 $ ,187 20, % 2.02% 0.25% 2.27% 229,200 11,916 Silver Star Total 13,972,2 $ ,303 20, % 2.36% 0.1% 2.51% 229, ,516 Longwood/ Mary/Sanford Bulk Distribution 1,2, $ , % 25.% 0.00% 25.% 0 1,755 Flex 1,919,303 $ ,867 3, % 10.05% 0.20% 10.25% 0 77,70 Manufacturing 1,698,531 $ , % 17.78% 0.00% 17.78% 0 5,000 Warehouse / Distribution 5,526,819 $ , % 3.65% 0.00% 3.65% 166,0 55,7 Longwood/ Mary/Sanford Total 10,395,103 $6.1 1,0,52 3, % 9.77% 0.0% 9.81% 166,0 282,975 North Central Flex 1,238,596 $ , % 6.26% 0.00% 6.26% 0,166 Manufacturing 306,586 $.10 19, % 6.33% 0.00% 6.33% 0 (19,00) Warehouse / Distribution 1,070,988 $.0 53, % 5.0% 0.00% 5.0% 0 (2,725) North Central Total 2,616,170 $6.68 1, % 5.77% 0.00% 5.77% 0 28,01 Central Bulk Distribution 316,93 $ % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 Flex,969 $1.00 3, % 0.73% 0.00% 0.73% 0 2,388 Manufacturing 510,0 $ % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 Warehouse / Distribution 3,228,925 $ ,03 33, % 2.5% 1.0% 3.9% 0 (,316) Central Total,585,337 $ ,880 33, % 1.81% 0.73% 2.5% 0 (7,928) Osceola County Bulk Distribution 1,353,699 $ % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 Flex 85,875 $9.20 1, % 5.1% 0.00% 5.1% 0 17,390 Manufacturing 1,18,0 $. 17, % 1.20% 0.00% 1.20% 0 100,000 Warehouse / Distribution 1,668,09 $ , % 6.78% 0.00% 6.78% 0 25,669 Osceola County Total,926,072 $.7 1, % 3.% 0.00% 3.% 0 13,059 33rd Street Bulk Distribution 213,000 $ % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 Flex 613,67 $9.62 2, % 6.92% 0.00% 6.92% 0,6 Warehouse / Distribution 3,579,90 $ , % 3.27% 0.00% 3.27% 0 82,93 33rd Street Total,06,16 $6.83 9, % 3.62% 0.00% 3.62% 0 126,69 University/East Side Bulk Distribution 3, $ % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 Flex 1,98,67 $ , % 9.18% 0.00% 9.18% 0 3,278 Manufacturing 363,787 $ % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 Warehouse / Distribution 1,87,129 $ , % 1.11% 0.00% 1.11% 0 10,687 University/East Side Total,059,537 $ , % 3.89% 0.00% 3.89% 0 53,965 Central Park Bulk Distribution 8,83,960 $ , % 6.% 0.00% 6.% 0 (357,060) Flex 2,,873 $9.1 99, % 3.9% 0.00% 3.9% 0 1,082 Warehouse / Distribution,005,626 $ , % 0.56% 0.00% 0.56% 0 22,686 Central Park Total,369,59 $ , %.9% 0.00%.9% 0 (18,292) Airport/Southeast Bulk Distribution 1,092,00 $ , % 3.93% 0.00% 3.93% 0 1,63,886 Flex 2,22,076 $10. 32,617, %.28% 0.21%.% 0 (19,709) Warehouse / Distribution 1,330,789 $ ,102 18, % 6.25% 0.13% 6.38% 263,605 1,130,168 Airport/Southeast Total 30,66,905 $6.55 1,792,356 22, % 5.8% 0.07% 5.92% 263,605 2,57,35 Southwest Bulk Distribution 1,763,652 $5. 55,200 22, % 3.13% 1.25%.38% 0 31,533 Flex 1,102,135 $ , % 5.08% 0.00% 5.08% 0,580 Warehouse / Distribution 3,621,380 $ ,220 1, % 0.28% 0.1% 0.69% 0 11,732 Southwest Total 6,87,167 $ ,01 36, % 1.87% 0.57% 2.% 0 58,85 Davenport Bulk Distribution 5,789,85 $5.01 7, % 8.76% 0.00% 8.76% 207, ,97 Warehouse / Distribution 197,06 $ , % 7.31% 0.00% 7.31% 0 (7,210) Davenport Total 5,987,251 $ , % 10.03% 0.00% 10.03% 207,676 89,737 Reporting Methodology: This report includes all industrial buildings and parks 20,000 SF and greater in the MSA that are not government owned. All rents are reported on a triple net basis and are direct weighted averages calculated on total available space. The information in this report has been collected by the Avison Young research team via sources that are deemed reliable but not guranteed.
4 Industrial Market Report Year-End 2017 With industrial fundamentals strengthening it is likely that 2018 will in many ways mirror 2017 in, characterized by strong net absorption, continued speculative development, sustained leasing activity, and healthy rental rate growth. Leading Indicators (Y-O-Y Q-2016 to Q-2017) Vacancy Rate 5.2% Net Absorption,07,357 SF Average Asking Rate (NNN) $6.8 Under Construction 1,112,981 SF Total Employment 1.25 MM Significant Fourth Quarter 2017 Lease Transactions - Sorted by SF Tenant Property Type SF Submarket Vital Record Control of Florida Bent Oak Industrial Park 300 Expansion 111,390 Airport/Southeast Goodwill Industries Crews Commerce Center 300 New 108,188 Airport/Southeast A1 Assets Innovation Center at Mary New 81,000 Longwood/LM/Sanford Marco Stores Sandlake Service Center IV Renewal 38,135 Central Park Fulfillment 9 Bent Oak Industrial Park 0 New 37, Airport/Southeast Wilsonart, LLC Crown Pointe III Renewal 29,0 Southwest Redi Carpet Sand Renewal 19,200 Central Park FEMA Horizon Commerce Park VII New 19,010 Airport/Southeast ASI Presidents II New 16,000 Central Park PeakCM, LLC* Commerce Point Renewal,017 Central Park UMA Solar South Seminole Industrial Center New 1,592 Longwood/LM/Sanford FWS Distributors* Triplex New 1,09 33rd Street H Betti 605 L B McLeod New 10,800 33rd Street * Avison Young handled this transaction Significant Fourth Quarter 2017 Sales Transactions - Sorted by Sale Price Property SF Sale Price Price/SF Buyer Submarket Silver Star Commerce Center 25,9 $12,0,000 $7 Denholtz Associates JV Militello Capital Silver Star Mary Business Center* 121,000 $8,600,000 $71 Blackstone Longwood/ Mary/Sanford Gills Dr 85,879 $8,235,000 $96 First Industrial Airport/Southeast Parkway Commerce Center 91,0 $5,000,000 $55 Denholtz Associates JV Militello Capital Silver Star *Part of a 35-property core market portfolio totaling.9 million sf and $326.5 million in total transaction volume with a 6.5% in-place cap rate 2018 Avison Young - Florida, LLC. All rights reserved. E. & O.E.: The information contained herein was obtained from sources which we deem reliable and, while thought to be correct, is not guaranteed by Avison Young.
5 Industrial Submarkets Eustis SUBMARKETS M ount Year-End D ora NORTHWEST 29 Sorrento M ount Plymouth LONGWOOD-LK MARY-SANFORD Dora 6 S anfo rd LAKE SILVER STAR 6 ORANGE Heathrow M ar y NORTH CENTRAL Sanford Int l Airport 37 UNIVERSITY - EAST SIDE Tan gerine 51 SOUTHWEST S outh Ap opk a DAVENPORT 1 OSCEOLA Clarcona 1 Winter G arden O rlovista G otha 29 LAKE Horizon West Ho ld en Hei g hts Conway 08 Ta f t Williamsburg 23 Alafaya 36 Hunters Creek S o u thchase M ar y Jane M ead ow Wo o d s Har t POLK Hart ORANGE OSCEOLA B u enaventu ra L akes 192 Kevin DelaRosa Associate Int l Airport 192 Celebration Lisa Bailey, SIOR Principal Industrial Team Rio Pi nar B elle Isle 17 Fo ur Corners 27 U ni o n A z alea L ake Buena Vista U ni versi t y Co nway 82 Do c tor Phillips B ay L ake O rl a ndo Ed g ewo o d Downtown Pine Castle H ill Tibet G o ld enro d 08 Oak R idge B ay 535 Lisa McNatt Director of Research 135 W Central Blvd, Suite 700, FL lisa.mcnatt@ 3 26 Wi nter Greg Morrison Principal and Managing Director 135 W Central Blvd, Suite 700, FL greg.morrison@ L ake Butler O vi ed o M ai tland 35 Windermere Butler 1 17/92 Tildenv ille Pine H ills 26 Casselb err y Fairview Shores Oco ee B lack Ham m o ck 19 Fern Eatonvil le 0 35 Wi nter S p ri ng s 17/92 3 Lo ck har t Apopka Johns Forest Cit y 29 SunRail Stations Oa k land Altamonte Sp rings 36 3 Contact Information Jessup 19 Lo ng wo o d Wek iwa Spring s Ap op k a AIRPORT - SOUTHEAST M ont verde ORLANDO CENTRAL PARK SEMINOLE Zellwo o d CENTRAL ORANGE 33RD STREET VOLUSIA Monroe Kissimmee East Tohopekaliga Camp b ell St. Clo u d Loughman Tohopekaliga Avison Young - Florida, LLC. All rights reserved. E. & O.E.: The information contained herein was obtained from sources which we deem reliable and, while thought to be correct, is not guaranteed by Avison Young.
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