Alternative sources of laterite ore. Thomas Höhne-Sparborth Roskill Information Services

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1 Alternative sources of laterite ore Thomas Höhne-Sparborth Roskill Information Services

2 Disclaimer The statements in this presentation represent the considered views of Roskill Information Services Ltd. It includes certain statements that may be deemed "forward-looking statements. All statements in this presentation, other than statements of historical facts, that address future market developments, government actions and events, are forward-looking statements. Although Roskill Information Services Ltd. believes the outcomes expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those in forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-looking statements include changes in general economic, market or business conditions. While Roskill Information Services Ltd. has made every reasonable effort to ensure the veracity of the information presented it cannot expressly guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the estimates, forecasts and conclusions contained herein. Accordingly, the statements in the presentation should be used for general guidance only.

3 Overview Impact of Indonesia Historical production trends Nickel stocks Production in the Philippines Production capacity Investment climate Other sources of laterite ore Production cost Conclusions

4 Impact of Indonesia

5 Dependence on Indonesia and Philippines is a recent development Cumulative nickel laterite production Nickel laterite production 2013 Others New Caledonia 16% 13% Colombia 8% 29% Philippines Indonesia 24% 3% 7% Russia Cuba Change driven by geographical proximity, production cost, demand for higher-grade lateritic ores and size of resources Source: Muddand Jowitt(2013), Roskill Nickel Market Outlook (2014)

6 Mine output in Indonesia has increased at 9.7%py from ,500 Mine production (kt Ni) 2,000 1,500 1,000 Nickel sulphide Other laterite Indonesian laterite Source: Roskill Nickel Market Outlook (2014)

7 Nickel stocks were estimated at 6-9 months at the beginning of January 1,200 1, Significant portion unreported Net weight and grade difficult to assess Other producer and consumer stocks Nickel-in-laterite in Chinese ports LME stocks INSG Producer stocks Source: INSG, Roskill Nickel Market Outlook (2014)

8 Plenty of projects underway but when will they come onstream? Selection of announced NPI / FeNi projects Company Area Estimated Capacity Status Ning Xia Hengshun Smelter Group Planned; status unclear Ibris/ Yongxing Alloy Materials Technology 48 Planned for 2015 PT Antam Pomalaa expansion 4th production line planned Halmahera (FeNi Haltim) 27 Planned for 2015 Mandiodo 24 Details unknown PT Antam / PT Krakatau Steel South Kalimantan 5 Possible Pt Antam / PT Direct Nickel Test plant in Perth piloted Direct Nickel production process in 2013; Direct Nickel plans a larger plant in Indonesia PT Billy Indonesia / Jilin HOROC Nonferrous North Konawe Originally planned for 2012; status unclear PT Bumi Makmur / Hanking Group North Konawe 20 Probable PT Central Omega Resources / Taiwan E-United Central Sulawesi 20 Planned; status unclear PT Delma Mining East Kalimantan No updates since 2011; originally planned for 2013 PT Ifishdeco (Finna Group, Tekindo Group, Fujian) Southeast Sulawesi 2 Two-stage project, first stage in 2014; construction to start Dec 2013; plant to consume 100ktpy ore. PT Indoferro Cilegon Banten 8 Doubling existing capacity PT Jinguang Indonesia (Sichuan Jinguang) Morwali 20 Planned; status unclear PT Tiga Baji Mining and Energy Resources Maratabe Central Sulawesi Planned; status unclear Shanghai Decent Investment Group / China-ASEAN Funds (CAF) Planned production of 300ktpy NPI gross weight; agreement signed October 2013 Solway Group Aquila 38 BFS planned for 2014; months for construction Sulawesi Mining Investment (Tsingshan) 30 Under construction Zhenshi Group North Maluku 10 Commenced construction in May 2013 Source: Roskill Nickel Market Outlook (2014)

9 Market balance hinges on how much NPI production will remain in China 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Chinese NPI New operations Indonesian NPI China cathode Existing operations Demand Source: Roskill Nickel Market Outlook (2014)

10 Philippines

11 Production in the Philippines NAC the largest producer, accounting for 28% of production in 2013, up from 20% in 2009 Typical DSO grades vary between 0.6% to 2% Direct shipping ore (DSO) Mixed sulphide precipitate (MSP) Source: Roskill Nickel Market Outlook (2014), Mines and Geosciences Bureau (2013)

12 Production in the Philippines Oriental Synergy Marcventures ZDMC Shuley Claver/Shenzhou LNI Archipelago Berong Eramen Adnama AAM-Phil NAC Low industry concentration and little trend towards consolidation Some Chinese interests, but not all investments have materialised SR Metals Benguet CTP C&M Carrascal Citinickel PGMC Source: Roskill Nickel Market Outlook (2014), Mines and Geosciences Bureau (2013)

13 Large spread in prices by nickel content, depending on Fe, Co, 180, ,000 Pesos per t Ni 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Source: Roskill Nickel Market Outlook (2014), Mines and Geosciences Bureau (2013)

14 Nickel Asia Corporation Planning 15% y-on-y increase in 2014, compared to 14% in 2013 Grades have been declining, but no change in mining plan in favour of higher-grade ores 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.9% % 0.5% Saprolite (Japan) Saprolite (China) Limonite (CNBC) Saprolite (Japan) Saprolite (China) Limonite (China) Limonite (China) Saprolite (Japan) Saprolite (China) Limonite (China) Rio Tuba Taganito Hinatuan Cagdianao Source: NAC

15 Nickel deposits in the Philippines Source: Mines and Geosciences Bureau

16 Investment in the Philippines 1,400 1, Nickel resources estimated at 1,559Mt at 1.15% Ni Minign investment (US$ million) 1, Operating nickel mines Mining accounts for 0.6% of GDP 8% of revenue 7.6% of exports 0.7% of employment Value of resources estimated at US$850 billion (government estimate) 0 0 Total mining investment Number of nickel mines Source: Mines and Geosciences Bureau

17 Mining policies Unrest over environmental issues, land claims, revenue-sharing, corruption Around 200,000 small-scale and illegal miners Mine disasters (Marcopperin 1996, Philexin 2012) Relatively strong laws are in place, but have not consistently been enforced Ban on new mining applications from January 2011 March 2013 Source: Reuters, GMA News, Lerias(2012), news reports

18 Mining policy in the Philippines Planned replacement of 1995 Mining Act Mining or export ban appears unlikely Previous discussion to raise export taxes from 2% to 7% Draft bill scheduled for filing for new revenue sharing scheme, imposing 10% excise tax Source: Reuters, news reports

19 Other sources of laterite ore

20 Exports from New Caledonia have increased at only 3.8%py from Nickel exports (kt Ni) Ores & concentrates Ferro-nickel Matte Exports of ores and concentrates fully accounted for by South Korea (61%) and Japan (39%) High grade material, with SLN s reserves amounting to 38Mt at 2.74% or around 1,030kt nickel, and resources of 110Mt Vale s Goro project faced significant delay, but will add 60ktpy capacity Source: Roskill Nickel Market Outlook (2014)

21 The majority of lateritic resources are lower-grade than Indonesian ore Only ±25% of known resources have a grade >1.5% Ni Only New Caledonia has an averagehigher grade of ore than Indonesia Source: Mudd and Jowitt(2013), Roskill Nickel Market Outlook (2014)

22 Bonus slide: Nickel laterite resources by ore type Hydrous Mg silicate-oxide 1.4 Nickel grade (%) Oxide Oxide-hydrous Mg silicate Bt ore (gross weight) Oxide-hydrous Mg silicate Hydrous Mg silicate-oxide Oxide Oxide-Clay silicate Clay silicate Limonite-Clay silicate Hydrous Mg silicate-clay silicate-oxide Hydrous Mg silicate-clay silicate-oxide Hydrous Mg silicate Clay silicate-hydrous Mg silicate-oxide Limonite Goethite Limonite-Hydrous Mg silicate Hydrous Mg silicate-limonite Goethite-Limonite Hydrous Mg silicate-clay silicate Oxide-Mg silicate Clay silicate-oxide Clay silicate-goethite Clay silicate-hydrous Mg silicate Goethite-Hydrous Mg silicate Clay silicate-oxide-hydrous Mg silicate Goethite-Limonite-Clay silicate Source: Mudd and Jowitt(2013)

23 Map of world laterite resources Bubble size: Resource size (2011) Bubble colour: Resource grade (2011) Country colour: Nickel mine production (2013) Source: Mudd and Jowitt(2013), Roskill Nickel Market Outlook (2014)

24 Cost of nickel production, 2013 (US$/t, incl. by-product credits) Finland Botswana Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Colombia Dominican Republic Philippines Papua New Guinea Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Cuba Cuba Cuba Japan Japan Japan Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil Venezuela Spain Australia Australia Australia Australia Australia Australia Australia Australia Australia Australia Australia Australia Australia New Caledonia New Caledonia New Caledonia New Caledonia Greece 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25, ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Estimated nickel production cost of operation Estimated average nickel production cost in country of operation Source: Roskill Nickel Market Outlook (2014)

25 Viability of some alternatives will require significant price increase 40% 35% Total nameplate capacity estimated at over 2,600Mtpy % of industry operating at a loss 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Operational capacity before ban estimated at around 2,100Mtpy 0% 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000 Nickel price US$/t Source: Roskill Nickel Market Outlook Report (2014)

26 Will producers continue to produce at a loss? Minimising losses Costs / Revenue This could even mean bringing new mines on-stream to improve downstream capacity utilisation 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Capacity utilisation Fixed cost Variable cost Revenue Source: Roskill Nickel Market Outlook (2014) Loss when at full capacity

27 Russia?

28 Sanctions would have a significant impact Russia s largest trading partners, exports of unwrought nickel China 36% Rest of Asia 19% United States 4% EUR (Bn) EU 39% Rest of World 2% 50 0 In 2013, Russia accounted for 12.6% of primary nickel output and 27% of exports of nickel metal Source: GTIS, Eurostat, Roskill Nickel Market Outlook (2014)

29 Prices have risen 12% since the beginning of March 20, Nickel price (US$/t) 18,000 16,000 14, LME nickel stocks (kt Ni) Nickel price LME stocks 12,000 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar Source: Westmetall

30 Conclusions

31 Conclusions The impact of the export ban has been softened by existing producer, consumer and raw ore stockpiles. Going forward, the timeline for planned NPI smelters will have a large impact on the supply-demand balance and prices The Philippines is the most-mentioned alternative source of lateritic ore, but carries investor risk, the possibility of resource nationalism, and lower grades New Caledonia features higher grades, but independent producers have faced comparatively high operating costs Other sources of lateritic ore abound, including in Brazil, Cuba, Southeastern Europe, Africa and elsewhere, but mostly of lower grade and at higher cost Sanctions against Russia, if implemented, will likely have a strong impact on prices, and would likely result in a shift of exports towards China

32 Roskill Information Services STEEL ALLOYS MINOR METALS INDUSTRIAL MINERALS Facing a major decision? We help you explore the impact on the market and the impact on you Contact: Thomas Höhne-Sparborth ths@roskill.co.uk New Nickel report published Jan 2014 New Chromium report published Jan 2014 New Cobalt report published Jan 2014